News Source: SETZ

Morning Comments; Friday, June 24th, 2022

Heavy losses were posted in the market yesterday as long liquidation developed. Improved weather forecasts for the United States were the leading cause of this action but positioning for the upcoming USDA reports was also a factor. Traders also shoring up positions for month and quarter end. Worries over China’s future soybean demand also weighed on trade as the country’s meal inventory has tripled in the past three months. This now starting to lead to questions on the country’s future soybean needs. Rumors of previous export sales being rolled to South America for origination also pressured yesterday’s session. Building concerns over the state of the global economy also pressured trade as the Fed now claims a recession is not inevitable but stopped short of saying we will see one. Consumers are staring to cut back on spending which is being noticed in restaurants across the US. In turn, concerns are building over future commodity demand. Weather models indicate the US will see moderating temperatures as we move to month end, but a lack of rainfall is becoming a concern. June likely to go down as the 2nd driest in history with only 1988 being drier. The International Grains Council raised its world corn production forecast yesterday from a larger crop out of Ukraine. World corn production still short of consumption. Unless buying surfaces fundamentals alone may not provide much support today.  

Highlights
* Ukraine to receive temporary storage
* Black Sea countries meet on Ukraine exports   
* Russian sanctions to limit progress
* EU reporting heavy drought losses 
* Inflation impacting consumer spending
* Existing home sales -3.4% in May 
* USDA working to alleviate port congestion
* Export sales this morning, COF after the close
* Trade focused on June 30th reports
* July options expire today

Corn
* Analysts raise Brazil crop est
* Brazil acreage higher than thought
* Safrinha crop est up 1.6 mmt
* Total Brazil production now 115 mmt 
* Managed money position trimmed

Soybeans
* Brazil raises harvested acres
* Crop up to 127 mmt  
* US export demand slowing   
* Indonesia to increase Palm Oil exports  
* Global crush margins decline  

Wheat
* Spring wheat crop better than thought
* Winter wheat yields mixed        
* Winter crop quality is high  
* Russia continues to raise crop est  
* Canada predicts higher plantings   
 
Livestock
* June 1st COF est 101.5%   
* May placements at 100%  
* May marketings at 103%  
* US milk production -0.7% in May     
* Global dairy price index -1.3%  


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Thursday, June 23rd, 2022

We are now just a week away from the long awaited June revisions to the March planting intentions data. This report will be released on the 30th and is expected to show changes to US planted acreage from the spring release. Not all analysts agree on what we may see for changes, however. In March the USDA predicted planted acres of 89.5 million on corn, 91 million for soybeans, and 47.4 million for wheat. Since then we have seen less than perfect weather conditions that likely will shave acres off the wheat figure. The most interest is on corn and soybeans, where some analysts feel the March data was 2 million acres too low on corn plantings and 2 million too high on soybeans. This is why some analysts are not as concerned with a possibility of corn acre being abandoned in the Upper Plains, as they feel overall corn plantings may still be higher. There is more concern on the soy figure, as even with 91 million acres being planted the stocks to use on new crop inventory is still very tight. If we start to reduce acres it could push the US into a rationing position, even if yields are favorable. The quarterly stocks data will also be released next week and could be just as influential on trade.  

Highlights
* Russia to increase crude oil production
* Extreme heat impacts US Plains   
* Concerns build over long range weather 
* Damage also reported in EU crops 
* Argentina considers higher biodiesel blend
* Drought impacting Argentine wheat 
* Input costs impact global production
* More countries to expand oilseed plantings
* Trade focused on June 30th reports
* July options expire Friday

Corn
* Brazil yields remain high
* Analysts raise crop estimate  
* Brazil may decrease plantings in 2022/23  
* Ukraine grain exports in June -44% from 2021 
* Technicals provide support

Soybeans
* US crush margins very good
* Some reports of $2.75 returns  
* Brazil soy cheaper than US   
* Malaysian monthly Palm Oil exports -12.5%  
* China to auction 500.000 mt Friday

Wheat
* Spring crop much better than last year
* Harvest pressure building        
* High temps speed maturity  
* Wide variability in yields reported  
* Analysts raise Ukraine crop est   
 
Livestock
* Wholesale beef firms  
* Cash cattle trade is light 
* Most sales reports $135 to $138 
* Pork values firming    
* Hog slaughter remains light  


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022

The ratings on the US corn and soybean crops both decreased last week. As of Sunday night the US corn crop was rated 70% Good/Excellent, -2% from last week. This is still a 5% better rating than last year at this time. The soybean crop is rated 68% G/E, -1 point on the week. The soybean crop is 8% better than last year. Soybean emergence is at 83% which is likely distorting the rating. Winter wheat condition declined 1% on the week and now stands at 30% G/E. This rating is f=down a large 19% on the year. Harvest of the winter wheat is just ahead of the average pace at 25% complete. The spring wheat rating came in at 59% G/E, and Us pastures are now rated as 31% G/E/. Attention in the market now is on weather across the United States as high temperatures limited precipitation are being seen in many regions. Long range outlooks indicate these conditions are just temporary though and more favorable weather will set in as we move closer to July. Other outlooks expect to see stressful crop conditions persist which is adding to market volatility. Expect futures to follow the latest weather report.  

Highlights
* Ukraine working on export alternatives
* Covid continues to impact trade   
* Energy costs continue to impact trade 
* Energy costs also affecting global planting 
* US trying to determine unplanted acres
* Prevent plant acres pressure fertilizer 
* Chinese buying has slowed
* June options expire Friday
* Trade focused on June 30th reports
* FND on July contracts also June 30th

Corn
* Carryout estimate may be 300 mbu too high
* Census exports larger than USDA  
* Cumulative loadings -5% from estimates  
* Ukraine production estimates rising 
* Pollination weather forecasts watched closely

Soybeans
* More concern shown over US ending stocks
* Old crop carryout lowest in 6 years  
* New crop has no room for yield loss  
* Cash continues to lead futures 
* Privates raise Brazil crop est  

Wheat
* Russia keeps raising crop est
* Crop now at 87 mmt       
* EU crop deteriorating  
* Crop likely -5 mmt from USDA est  
* US demand underestimated   
 
Livestock
* Economic worries pressure cash demand  
* Packers have July 4th needs covered 
* Chinese demand remains uncertain 
* Total export demand slowing   
* Slaughter rates slowing


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Wednesday, June 15th, 2022

Now that we are past the monthly WASDE report, private firms are starting to release their updated production figures for the US corn and soybean crops. Some of these are not as optimistic as the USDA when it comes to yield and production potential. One reason for this is that privates believe harvested acres will be less than what the USDA is predicting given recent weather conditions in parts of the US, mainly the Upper Plains. Persistent rains have kept farmers out of the fields in this region all spring and we are now at a point where farmers are simply running out of time to produce a crop, especially on corn. There are also thoughts that the corn yield will be trimmed from the USDA prediction from the late start to the growing season, although the fact the condition of the corn crop is high is tempering this belief. Private analysts have also trimmed their soybean acreage and yield from the same factors. While total production estimates are now that far below what the USDA is projecting, they are still garnering trade attention. This is from the already tight stocks to use ratios on corn and soybeans and how no production can be lost given current balance sheets.  

Highlights
* Some US export cancellations likely
* Strong cash markets support futures   
* Economists see high energy costs lasting 
* US consumer confidence slipping lower 
* Fed to be more aggressive with interest rate hikes
* 0.75 interest rate increase expected today 
* Canadian potash production +20% by 2025 
* More countries restrict exports
* Dry conditions in US persisting
* June may be 3rd driest in history

Corn
* World corn production forecasts rise
* Trade questions USDA export forecast 
* USDA well below Census export total  
* Yields in SAM remain very good
* Ukraine remains optimistic on exports

Soybeans
* NOPA May crush today est 171.55 mbu
* NOPA crush would be +5% from May 2021  
* Trade uncertain on Palm Oil supply  
* China lowers veg oil import forecast 
* China to auction 500,000 mt Friday

Wheat
* Russia considers 10% export tariff
* EU less optimistic on production       
* French wheat just 66% G/E 
* India crop est now 99 mmt, -11 mmt  
* US 21/22 exports lowest in 50 years  
 
Livestock
* Weekly cattle slaughter +1% on the year  
* YTD cattle slaughter also +1% 
* Weekly hog slaughter -2.5% 
* YTD hog slaughter -4.5%  
* Slower global trade expected


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Tuesday, June 14th, 2022

Corn planting across the United States is basically wrapped up for the year. As of Sunday the US corn planting was at 97% and emergence was at 88%. The rating of the US corn crop declined 1 point last week and now stands at 72% Good/Excellent. Soybean planting across the United States will also be winding down for the year as this has reached 88% which is right at the five-year average. Soybeans are 70% emerged which is just under the 74% average. The initial rating on the US soybean crop is 70% G/E which was in line with trade expectations. The winter wheat crop rating again improved 1% on the week and stands at 31% G/E. Harvest is starting to advance on winter wheat with 10% of the crop now out. Spring wheat planting reached 94% as of Sunday, and the crop is rated 54% G/E. US pasture conditions continue to slow improvement with the rating on that at 31% G/E. Trade will likely once again focus its attention on current weather forecasts for the Corn Belt which indicate hot, dry conditions for the remainder of the week, but we are now seeing some differing outlooks for next week and beyond, with a few models showing moderating conditions return at that time.

Highlights
* Rail market again seeing logistic issues
* Global energy supply a concern   
* Favorable crops may encourage sales 
* Long range weather outlooks concerning 
* Some models call for hot, dry US summer 
* Inflation continues to impact commodity demand 
* Energy, food lead rising costs
* European Central Bank predicts 6.8% inflation
* Fertilizer manufacturers to increase output
* Fed may raise interest rate 0.75 tomorrow

Corn
* New crop demand has slowed
* New crop sales already record high 
* Feed demand to rise  
* US more competitive in global market
* Domestic buyers push for coverage

Soybeans
* Argentine officials raise crop estimates
* Indonesia elevates Palm Oil exports  
* Egypt claims to have 6 month supply of veg oil  
* China crush margins pressured 
* Brazil lowers soy exports, raises crush

Wheat
* Trade replacing Ukraine wheat
* Ukraine says exports to increase       
* Drought in EU intensifies
* EU lowers export forecast  
* Egypt says 2022 needs are covered  
 
Livestock
* Cash cattle trade is weaker  
* US beef exports slowing
* Last week’s beef sales a 12 week low
* Pork exports also slowing 
* Last week’s sales a 7 week low


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Monday, June 13th, 2022

There is little doubt trade will continue to react to last Friday’s WASDE numbers in today’s session. As this data starts to lose its impact on trade, more interest will be placed on the two major reports that will be released at month end. On June 30th the USDA will released its quarterly stocks and acreage revisions numbers. The US acreage estimates have been debated ever since the March intentions report was released, shocking everyone with a smaller corn and larger soybean acreage figure. Since then nearly all private analysts have stated they believe these numbers were wrong and that corn acres will be higher in the June report. If we do not see verification of these thoughts, it will make any unplanted acreage reports more of a market factor. The quarterly stocks numbers will be just as important as these will give us a much clearer indication of final ending stocks. While stocks of corn, soybeans, and wheat are tight, they will still be adequate for the rest of the year. The question is if these stocks will provide enough of a cushion if we do see some loss in new crop production.  

Highlights

* EU production questioned

* Ukraine estimates total production at 65 mmt   

* Privates predicts smaller US crops than USDA 

* High costs not slowing gasoline demand

* Shipping costs are a concern for importers 

* Argentine crush capacity at 70% 

* Port delays cost US $25 billion 

* Minimal interest in country cash sales

* Starting to see new crop sales 

* Trade now focused on June 30th reports 

Corn

* 21/22 carryout +45 mbu @ 1.485 bbu

* USDA lowers exports by 50 mbu 

* 22/23 production steady at 14.46 bbu 

* 22/23 carryout +40 mbu @ 1.4 bbu

* Average 22/23 cash value at $6.75

Soybeans

* 21/22 ending stocks -30 mbu @ 205 mbu

* Exports increased 30 mbu 

* 22/23 crop unchanged at 4.64 bbu 

* 22/23 ending stocks -30 mbu @ 280 mbu 

* 22/23 average cash value of $14.70

Wheat

* 21/22 ending stocks steady at 655 mbu   

* 22/23 US crop +8 mbu @ 1.737 bbu       

* 22/23 ending stocks 627 mbu

* Average cash value at $10.75 

* USDA attaché cuts India crop 11 mmt 

Livestock

* 2022 beef production 27.91 bil pounds 

* 2023 beef production 25.95 bil pounds

* 2022 pork production 27.22 bil pounds

* 2023 pork production 27.37 bil pounds 

* USDA sees smaller beef, pork exports in 2023

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 

Morning Comments; Friday, June 10th, 2022

The highlight of today’s session will likely be the release of the monthly WASDE report from the USDA. Now that the United States is in the growing season we will see more alterations to numbers, especially on the new crop, which is where most of the market attention will be. Planting of US corn and soybean crops has caught up to normal so to see yield declines this month from last would seem unlikely. We may still see some alterations to crop sizes from acreage concerns, but that is more likely to happen in the July balance sheets following the revised acreage data that will be released at the end of this month. We continue to see strong demand for new crop production, but it is doubtful those numbers will see significant changes at this time of the year. The most interest in the report data will likely be on the global side, mainly what we are seeing for Ukraine production. Officials in Ukraine has increased their production forecasts on corn and wheat from what the USDA projected in May, so to see bigger numbers today would not come as a surprise. We will also closely monitor crops in the EU and China as drought is worsening in those regions.  

Highlights
* Weather damages French crops
* Ukraine exports maxed out for now   
* India to continue with wheat exports
* India exports limited to “vulnerable” buyers
* Other countries to limit exports as well 
* Frost possible in Brazil this weekend  
* US DDG exports +7% in 2022
* US ethanol production +8% in 2022
* Brazil June exports forecast to decline  
* WASDE report at 11:00 AM CT

Corn
* 21/22 carryout est 1.44 bbu 
* 22/23 production est 14.44 bbu 
* 22/23 carryout 1.33 bbu
* 21/22 world carryout est 308.6 mmt 
* 22/23 global carryout est 305.1 mmt          

Soybeans
* 21/22 ending stocks est 215 mbu
* 22/23 production est 4.64 bbu 
* 22/23 carryout est 308 mbu 
* 21/22 world carryout est 84.8 mmt
* 22/23 carryover est 99.8 mmt    

Wheat
* 21/22 ending stocks est 665 mbu    
* 22/23 US crop est 1.7 bbu      
* 22/23 ending stocks est 613 mbu
* 21/22 world carryout est 280 mmt 
* 22/23 global carryout est 267.2 mmt 
 
Livestock
* Weekly beef sales at 17,700 mt  
* Sales -1% from last week 
* Weekly pork sales at 16,700 mt
* Sales -48% from last week
* China 2nd largest beef buyer, no pork


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.
 

Morning Comments; Thursday, June 9th, 2022

Much of the activity in today’s session will be spent getting positions in place ahead of tomorrow’s monthly WASDE report. As stated, much of the interest ahead of this has been on Ukraine and what we may see for changes to the country’s exports on old crop and new crop production. Reports out of Ukraine indicate spring crop plantings will be roughly 80% of normal which is more than trade was expecting. This will still leave a void in the global market that needs to be filled from other sources but makes the loss of commodities more manageable. The most interest in Ukraine is on wheat as that is the grain that is becoming harder to source around the world. While the Ukraine crop will be down on the year, Russia is predicting a record wheat crop which will help cover the shortfall if normal trade resumes. Turkey is also predicting a larger wheat crop this year to help cover other losses in the Black Sea. Trade will also be focused on the South American production estimates, particularly on corn. Parts on northern Brazil have been impacted by drought this growing season, but southern Brazil is reporting very favorable growing conditions which may negate other losses. Argentine crop estimates have also increased in recent weeks as weather turn more favorable there.  

Highlights
* Energy costs elevate freight rates
* Gas/Diesel continue to post record highs   
* Brazil to look at ways to increase biodiesel use
* Gulf urea values lowest since Aug 2021
* Global labor issues impact trade 
* Ukraine has 20 mmt inventory to ship  
* Ukraine storage to be 20-25 mmt short this year
* Bloomberg commodity Index +36% this year 
* Weekly ethanol production -224,000 bbl  
* Weekly ethanol stocks +675,000 bbl

Corn
* Brazil sales 66% of crop 
* Brazil harvest at 3.3% 
* Harvest pace reported as rapid in Brazil
* Argentine crop 52% harvested 
* Unplanted US Plains acres at 1.66 million          

Soybeans
* Ukraine sunflower planting -27% on the year
* India oilseed imports +15% on the year 
* Chinese crush margins firming 
* US crush margins remain favorable  
* Late summer US inventory to tighten    

Wheat
* Buyers hopeful for record Australian crop    
* Australian new crop not ready until fall      
* World wheat production lowered 6 mmt
* Ukraine exports likely overestimated 
* Ukraine focused on oilseed exports over grains 
 
Livestock
* US cheese production -4.5% in April    
* Cheese production steady on the year 
* April butter production -10.3% from March 
* Cash cattle remain untested
* Hog slaughter numbers down 

 
RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Wednesday, June 8th, 2022

Over the past week we have seen a shift in the attitude of the entire commodity market. This is not uncommon once we get into the later stages of the planting season, especially with the pace the crops were seeded catching up to the normal rates. When planting was initially delayed, we had risk premium added to futures as not only was there concern acres may be unplanted, but that yields would be reduced. Once planting did get underway the rate quickly caught up to normal and eased these worries. At the same time we had a leaking of risk premium from futures. Weather has also turned more favorable since the start of the planting season for the Corn Belt with few areas of major concern. Long-range weather outlooks are now favorable with cool temperatures for much of the Corn Belt through June. If these outlooks hold, they will further reduce market worries and the need for premium in futures. This is the main reason we have seen futures soften in recent weeks, mainly corn. The stocks to use outlook on US commodities remains tight though, and this will prevent a total collapse in futures at this time.  

Highlights
* Concerns build over US energy supply
* Weekly energy demand +2% on the year   
* US diesel reserves record low
* Quality of Ukraine inventory questioned
* DDG values weaken 
* World watching Chinese economy  
* Ukraine/Russian tensions build
* EU drought intensifies 
* EV growth hurts biofuel demand  
* WASDE report on Friday

Corn
* Corn oil values soften 
* Early yields in Brazil “good” 
* Drought losses in Brazil may be light
* Census April exports 274.5 mbu 
* April ethanol exports a record 185.2 mil gal          

Soybeans
* China to auction 500,000 mt Friday
* Global production est rising 
* US crush industry continues to expand
* Yearly export sales 102.3% of estimate  
* Census April exports a record at 134.38 mbu   

Wheat
* Australian farmers expand plantings    
* Dry weather benefits US harvest     
* Demand for Us offers is light          
* Russia raises export forecast
* French crop ratings slip further  
 
Livestock
* Wholesale beef firming    
* So Korea continues to buy US beef 
* Mexico is top US pork buyer 
* Pork cut out soft
* Feed costs becoming more worrisome


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Tuesday, June 7th, 2022

As of Sunday night the US corn crop was 94% planted and 78% emerged, taking most concern away from the initial delays to the season. The US corn crop has an initial rating of 73% Good to Excellent, with just 4% of the crop rated as poor. These numbers call for little additional risk premium at this time. The US soybean crop is now 78% planted and 56% emerged, both very close to the five-year average. Spring wheat planting made a jump on the week and now stands at 82% complete, with emergence at 55%. On winter wheat the crop is now rated 30% Good/Excellent, another slight improvement on the week. Harvest of the winter wheat crop is at 5%. The US pasture condition is still just 28% Good/Excellent. We are now at a point in the crop report cycle where less interest will be placed on planting and more on crop condition. This will gradually build over the next several weeks. Now is also when we see private analysts use crop ratings to try and determine overall production. History has shown production is very difficult to predict using crop ratings, but we can form an overall opinion on crop potential. Given the need for large crops of both corn and soybeans this year, we will likely see more attention on weekly reports than in most years.  

Highlights
* World market needs Ukraine supplies
* Trade questions Ukraine grain quality   
* Some grain in storage may not be usable
* Old crop country movement stalled
* More selling interest on new crop 
* US to take measures for food security  
* US to invest $330 million in rail system
* Favorable margins support domestic demand 
* Data being collected for June 30th reports  
* WASDE report on Friday

Corn
* Corn for ethanol at 3.55 bbu 
* Unplanted corn acres may be abandoned  
* Global market hopeful for Ukraine exports
* Brazil exports to build 
* Brazil futures see harvest pressure          

Soybeans
* Export forecast 75-100 mbu too low
* Soybeans may pick up corn acres 
* Brazil sees record meal demand
* US biofuel demand record high  
* Palm Oil reserves remain record tight    

Wheat
* Egypt shopping for coverage   
* India likely to deter more exports    
* India imports are possible          
* Australia predicts 3rd record crop
* Australian production est near 35 mmt  
 
Livestock
* Cash cattle trade softens   
* Cash cattle from $136 to $138 
* Pork values support hog futures 
* Beef exports slowing
* Pork exports remain high 


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Monday, June 6th, 2022

The early portion of this week’s trade will be spent getting final positions in place ahead of the June WASDE report that will be released on Friday at 11:00 AM CT. As stated, this report typically receives little interest as we are more focused on planting and crop development in the US, but the ongoing world production issues are making every report important to trade. The fact the US already has very tight old and new crop stocks to use outlooks is adding to this interest on the reports. What may be just as important as production in this month’s report is global trade. Ukraine remains basically shut off from the global market and it will be interesting to see how the USDA accounts for this in world  balance sheets. There are others grain producing countries who can cover a portion of the Ukraine losses, but for many buyers, the cost of freight from these makes them uneconomical sources. On the domestic side trade will be waiting to see what is done with US soybean exports. Soybean sales are already above what was projected for the year and new sales have not slowed. This makes it likely the old crop sales figure will be bumped higher, but other areas of demand may be lowered to offset them.

Highlights
* Economy to impact summer travel
* Commodity demand impacted as well   
* US drought centered on Plains
* Traders removing risk premium
* China lifting Covid restrictions 
* Rains favor later crops in SAM 
* US gasoline stocks -6% from year ago
* Russia/Turkey meet Wednesday on trade 
* 2022 ethanol mandate set at 20.63 mil gal  
* WASDE report on Friday

Corn
* July -50 ¼ last week 
* Trade expects rebound in loadings 
* Last week’s inspections -20%   
* Planting down to final acres 
* Initial crop rating expected tonight          

Soybeans
* July -34 ½ last week
* More time to finish plantings 
* US export loadings slowing 
* Argentine harvest winding down  
* US more favorable for summer sales    

Wheat
* July -$1.17 ½ last week   
* Winter wheat harvest progressing    
* Spring acreage abandonment likely          
* EU drought cutting production
* Break has attracted more interest  
 
Livestock
* Economic worries pressure demand   
* Only light cash trade last week 
* US pastures remain very poor 
* Livestock market looking at future supplies
* High costs may limit expansion


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Friday, June 3rd, 2022

We are now one week from the June WASDE report. Typically the June release of this data receives a muted response as trade is more focused on the US planting season and crop reports. While crop reports are still a major factor in daily price discovery, we will start to see more positioning in the market as we approach the release of the June data. The main interest will likely fall on the Black Sea and what the USDA predicts for not only production in the regions, but for exports as well. This is especially the case for Ukraine where the country is sitting on a large volume of old crop reserves it still needs to export. Reports from Ukraine indicate planting has progressed in recent weeks and weather has been favorable, which have caused some analysts to elevate their crop predictions. While it is possible the USDA will do the same, any increase in production may be delayed until more planting data can be received. Trade will also closely monitor the South American production figures, especially on the Brazilian Safrinha crop. Weather has been quite favorable for many areas in Brazil in recent weeks which has benefitted ear fill. Other parts of Brazil have seen drought stress though, and yields have likely been trimmed.  

Highlights
* Rains forecast for dry areas of EU
* US Corn Belt weather mostly favorable   
* China lifting some Covid restrictions
* Covid still a global concern
* Most Covid issues are with labor 
* Inflation a growing market factor
* Russia bypassing restrictions on exports
* Russia altering origination points on shipments 
* Wide ranges in global commodity values  
* PNW monitored for export business

Corn
* Arg crop est 4 mmt under USDA 
* Brazil corn premiums rising 
* Brazil corn still 20c discount to US  
* US gulf export capacity full through summer
* Trade doubts SAM export ability          

Soybeans
* US crushers taking down time
* Crush starting to increase in Argentina     
* Biodiesel production rising 
* Soy values follow Palm Oil 
* Covid hurts Malaysia crush pace  

Wheat
* Canadian planting very slow   
* Turkey crop est at 19.5 mmt   
* Turkey crop +11% on the year         
* More countries ease import regulations 
* French wheat 69% G/E, was 90% end of April  
 
Livestock
* YTD cattle slaughter +1%   
* YTD cattle slaughter 13.65 mil head 
* YTD hog slaughter -4.8% 
* YTD hog slaughter 51 mil head
* Trade looking at July 4th demand 


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.
 

Morning Comments; Thursday, June 2nd, 2022

Now that the calendar has turned to June, we will see a slight shift in market attitude and focus as well. For the most part the US planting season for the year is now drawing to a close. This changes the way trade starts looking at weather forecasts and the need for rains rather than hoping for dry soils to get the crops in. This will draw more attention to the drought conditions that are already being reported in the Western US and if they will expand into the Western Corn Belt. At the present time there are dry regions in the WCB, but no widespread drought is reported. We will also see trade pay more attention to the crop condition reports as those start to be released. While these are not good indicators of yield, they do tend to show us crop potential. Turning to June will also put more attention on the two big USDA reports that will be released at month end. These are the quarterly stocks data and the revised US plantings report. Of these, the most interest will likely fall on the acreage data to see how accurate the March intentions were.  

Highlights
* Buyers hope for post-planting farmer sales
* Farmers not selling until crop stands determined  
* Energy costs continue to impact global trade
* Vessels still waiting in Ukraine ports
* US DDG values firming 
* Importers adjusting delivery specs
* 83% of US corn soils “wet” in past 30 days
* 85% of US soybean area wet in past month 
* Daily rumors of Chinese buying  
* Russia looking for more trade partners

Corn
* April corn for ethanol use at 415 mbu
* Chinese corn values record high 
* SAM basis firming 
* Argentina not offering corn past Sep
* US corn export pace matches USDA est          

Soybeans
* April crush at 181 mbu
* China buying meal from Brazil     
* Interior basis starting to firm 
* China mostly covered on old crop needs
* Malaysia Palm Oil exports +20.5% in May  

Wheat
* Complex volatility building   
* India crop est 10 mmt under USDA   
* US yearly forward export sales -19%         
* Russia raises export taxes 
* Russian 22/23 exports est 40 mmt  
 
Livestock
* Canadian hogs $30/hd under US  
* EU hogs $20/hd under US 
* Importers want US pork for quality
* Managed money exits livestock
* Fund cattle long smallest since Nov 2020


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Wednesday, June 1st, 2022

As expected, a large amount of corn and soybean planting took place across the United States last week. The US corn crop is now 86% seeded, right at the average of 87% complete. Emergence is also closer to average at 61% with the normal rate being 68%. Soybean planting hit 66% as of Sunday night which is also right at the average of 67%. Soybean emergence is reported at 39%, just under the 43% average for that date. The winter wheat rating improved 1 point on the week and stands at 28% Good/Excellent. Spring wheat continues to lag the normal rate with 73% complete and the normal volume being 92%. Spring wheat is also just 42% emerged with us usually seeing 69% on this date. The US pasture condition improved 2% on the week and now stands at 24% G/E. The early part of today’s session will be spent getting new month positions in place. Given the fact the spot contracts did not go into delivery will likely ease the volatility that normally comes with this activity. The managed money crowd exited a large volume of positions yesterday though, and this kept trade activity high.  

Highlights
* Global food crisis worries build
* World basis values rising  
* Global grains trade slowing
* Credit becoming an issue for importers
* Covid lock-downs hurt Chinese economy
* Chinese economy worse than start of Covid
* US dollar high vs global currencies
* US gasoline demand -5% from 2021 
* Corn/soybeans post key reversals downward 
* Ukraine spring planting winding down

Corn
* Corn planting at 86% complete
* Corn emergence at 61% 
* Safrinha harvest starting in Brazil 
* Ethanol margins support production  
* Ethanol margins average 23 cents         

Soybeans
* Soybean planting 66% complete
* Emergence at 39%     
* April crush report at 2:00 today 
* April crush est 180.5 mbu
* China to auction 500,000 mt today  

Wheat
* Winter wheat rating 29% G/E  
* Spring wheat 73% planted  
* Spring wheat emergence at 42%        
* EU exports nearly equal to last year 
* French wheat rating declines  
 
Livestock
* US beef exports slowing 
* Last week shipments an 11 week low
* YTD beef exports still a record
* Hog values rally in China
* Chinese hogs +40c/pound from March


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Tuesday, May 31st, 2022

Much of today’s session will be spent getting final positions in place ahead of month end. None of the spot contracts go into delivery this month which will limit the volatility we see from that activity, but not totally remove it. In fact, not that the calendar is turning to June, we may start to see more volatility in the markets from the elevated levels we are already seeing. This is from the fact that once we see the crop cycle move from the planting season and into the growing season, we tend to see more risk premium in futures. In a year such as this when new crop stocks to use levels are already historically low, we will likely see even more of this buying surface. If any weather issues build it will only amplify money flow into commodities. The main source of this being watched for potential buying is the drought that is building in western states and thoughts it will start to be more of a factor in the Western Corn Belt. One factor that may limit additional buy is how high US futures already are. This is especially on corn, where the US is the highest priced source in the global market, which is already rationing demand.  

Highlights
* US expected to see active hurricane season
* 20 total storms predicted
* 4 hurricanes expected to be major  
* Ukraine weather favorable for crops
* Ukraine production forecast to rise
* US April new home sales -27% on the year  
* US ethanol production +9% from last year
* End users pushing for coverage
* Corn Belt drought is minimal  
* Month end positioning expected today

Corn
* July corn – 1 ½ last week 
* Active week of planting expected 
* Ukraine crop est 25.2 mmt 
* Ukraine exports est 21.2 mmt  
* EU yearly corn imports +1 mmt at 14.7 mmt        

Soybeans
* July soybeans +27 last week
* Planting has been rapid    
* Interior basis mixed 
* Covid restrictions limit Chinese demand         
* EU soy imports -700,000 mt at 12.8 mmt

Wheat
* July wheat -11 ¼ last week 
* So Plains need more rains  
* Ukraine crop est 17.1 mmt       
* Ukraine exports est 12.3 mmt, -6.5 mmt 
* India exports remain uncertain 
 
Livestock
* Trade focused on grilling demand
* US hogs over-valued
* Consumer demand questioned
* YTD US beef exports record 366,100 mt
* YTD US pork export at 599,000 mt


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.
 

Morning Comments; Friday, May 27th, 2022

We will likely see a larger volume of activity in today’s session as traders prepare for the long holiday weekend. All US markets will be closed next Monday for the Memorial Day holiday. It is not uncommon to see elevated positioning ahead of a long weekend, but even more so when they are in the planting season. This is from concern weather patterns can change over the break and alter market opinions. Current weather forecasts are mostly non-threatening for the crops, but we are starting to see more concern in the Western Corn Belt where spoils are drying out. While not in a major drought, as we have started any factor that could impact production in a year where the market cannot afford to lose any bushels will receive attention. These concerns are a primary reason we have seen elevated export demand in recent weeks as buyers want to extend coverage before any shortage takes place. This is being seen in the interior market as well, especially on corn where several buyers have been pushing bids to secure as much inventory as possible. The majority of this is in the feed industry where higher than normal usage is expected given the poor US pasture conditions.  

Highlights
* World food security causing unrest
* Natural Gas hits 13 year high
* More estimates released on US acres  
* Brazil ethanol starting to rally
* High Brazil costs may elevate imports 
* Corn/Soy ratio at 2.09:1  
* Ratio unlikely to impact acres
* Farmers show concern on rising costs 
* Many producers predict lower returns  
* Trade closed next Monday for Memorial Day

Corn
* Weekly sales a market year low 6 mbu 
* Market needs Ukraine inventory 
* Most planting delays remain in No Dakota 
* New crop values remain strong  
* China buying Brazil corn        

Soybeans
* Weekly sales solid at 10.2 mbu
* Market not showing signs of rationing    
* Argentine exports building 
* Brazil’s May exports lower than expected         
* US crush appetite remains strong

Wheat
* Weekly sales net -100,000 bu from cancelations 
* Argentine forward sales at 8.2 mmt  
* Last year’s Arg sales totaled 2.4 mmt       
* Argentine farmers worried quotas will be lowered 
* Very active planting in Brazil
 
Livestock
* Weekly beef sales 20,000 mt 
* Beef sales -14% on the week
* Weekly pork sales 36,700 mt
* Pork sales +52% on the week
* China a buyer of both beef & pork


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Thursday, May 26th, 2022

Trade will focus its early attention today on the weekly export sales report. While this data always receives market attention, trade is becoming more interested as buyers are still showing up for our old crop offerings, especially on soybeans. Cumulative US soybean bookings for the current market year have topped USDA projections for the year with several weeks left for sales. We continue to see buyers show up each week though, which is telling us not all buyers are comfortable with South America’s ability to provide all the commodity they need until the next US harvest. This is especially the case on Brazil where drought losses have been reported. Trade will also show more interest on corn to see if buyers feel the need to extend old crop coverage there as well. Given the large Safrinha crop estimate from Brazil and increasing projections on the Argentine crop, additional old crop corn sales may be limited. This is especially the case with the sharp discount these sources are offering corn to the global market compared to the US. Trade will also focus attention on new crop sales for indications of ongoing demand there. New crop corn and soybeans are already record large for this time of year, with China being the primary buyer of both.

Highlights
* Investors starting to question all markets
* Recession fears are growing
* Worst economics are in EU  
* High energy costs a major concern
* Energy values do support renewable fuels 
* US gasoline stocks -6% on the year  
* Weekly ethanol production
* Weekly ethanol stocks 
* Trade assessing frost reports from SAM  
* No end in sight for Black Sea conflict

Corn
* Average US spot basis -7 July  
* Corn basis strongest in 10 years 
* Most basis strength in WCB 
* Census exports +260 mbu from FAS  
* Argentine harvest 30% complete        

Soybeans
* Old crop demand underestimated
* Export sales above yearly projection   
* China rumored to be buying for August
* Planting focus now on soybeans         
* Thoughts are US acres may increase

Wheat
* Harvest progressing in So US 
* New crop quality reported as “very good”  
* New crop yields are variable       
* Little disease pressure seen this year 
* Rains may be too late for Plains’ crop
 
Livestock
* Wholesale beef is firming   
* Pork cutout also strong
* Cash cattle trade firming 
* Cumulative cattle slaughter +1% from 2021
* Cumulative hog slaughter -5% on the year


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.
 

Morning Comments; Wednesday, May 25th, 2022

Futures were under moderate pressure overnight as reports that Russia may start allowing grain exports out of Ukraine weighed on trade. Trade will be closely monitoring this story today for verification. More talk is surfacing in the market over potential acreage changes in the June revisions to the March Prospective Plantings report. We have already seen private firms alter their acreage predictions, some by as much as 2 million from the March intentions on corn and soybeans. If this is accurate it would add as much as 355 million bu of corn to the US supply using current yield predictions. While not a tremendous amount this would help ease market worries over the corn supply running short and ending stocks falling to a rationing level. At the same time this size of an acre decline to soybeans would cause concern in that complex. A two million decline to soybean acreage would cut roughly 103 million bu from the US supply. This would drop the United States into a rationing situation on soybeans and that is using today’s elevated yield estimate and holding demand unchanged. Trade will closely monitor this morning ethanol production report to see if any signs of consumer demand is slipping lower.  

Highlights
* Chinese currency showing strength
* Hopes build for relaxing of Chinese tariffs  
* White House asks OPEC to increase production
* Country movement very light 
* Farmer selling expected post-planting  
* Some Covid restrictions lifted in China
* More countries attempt to limit exports
* Countries hope to lower inflation, provide food security 
* Fresh news somewhat limited
* Geopolitics major driver of futures

Corn
* Many states now at final plant dates 
* Farmers to keep planting corn 
* Ukraine grain exports 1/3 of last year
* Ethanol margins remain positive 
* Argentine corn values firming        

Soybeans
* Chinese crush margins again pressured
* US crush margins also softer   
* China has summer needs to cover
* Argentine harvest 78% complete         
* US soy competitive in global market

Wheat
* India trims crop 5 mmt
* Canada spring planting -20% from average 
* US crop est middle of 10 year average       
* Ukraine exports remain minimal 
* Corn delays may push acres to spring wheat
 
Livestock
* Cash cattle trade near $138  
* US base hog values rebound
* Hog slaughter remains unseasonally high
* Cumulative hog slaughter still 93% of last year
* Hog weights +2 pounds from year ago


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Tuesday, May 24th, 2022

As expected, a large amount of corn and soybean planting took place across the United States last week. As of Sunday a reported 72% of the US corn crop has been planted, just under the 77% that is average for this date. The crop is also 39% emerged which is behind the 51% that is normal. Soybean planting is now at 50% complete which is also close to the 55% average. Soybean emergence is closer to the 26% five-year average at 21%. The winter wheat rating increased to 28% Good/Excellent on the week and 63% of the crop is headed. As expected, spring wheat planting remains very slow with just 49%  with the normal amount being 83%. The crop is also just 29%emerged with a normal rate of 50%. The US pasture condition unexpectedly declined to just 22% Good/Excellent when a slight improvement had been anticipated. Now that planting has progressed to these levels on corn and soybeans, trade will soon start to show more interest on crop condition than planting pace. Even with later than average plantings if the crops start to develop and look good, trade will ease its concern over crop sizes. This does not mean we will see a total removal of risk premium, but that trade will feel more comfortable with production possibilities.  

Highlights
* Ag lending rates back to pre-Covid levels
* More countries develop drought resistant crops  
* Lack of Phase 1 slowing US exports
* Russia wants sanctions lifted 
* US struggles to be competitive in global market  
* Managed money flow showing more volatility
* Volatility expected to increase this summer
* Interior basis firm in west, weak in east 
* Existing home sales -5.8% in April from 2021
* Trade positioning for month end

Corn
* Planting progress at 72% 
* Emergence is at 39% 
* More export interest on new crop
* China is largest new crop buyer 
* SAM basis starting to firm        

Soybeans
* 50% is now planted
* Emergence at 21%   
* New crop demand record high
* China still buying old crop         
* World veg oils drive US futures

Wheat
* Winter crop is rated 28% G/E
* Spring crop planting at 49% 
* Spring crop emergence 29%       
* Russian crop est a record 88.6 mmt 
* China claims to develop drought tolerant wheat
 
Livestock
* Japan actively buying US beef  
* US beef exports +1% on the year
* Mexico top US pork buyer
* Cattle slaughter +3.36% from last year
* Hog slaughter -1.5% from year ago 


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Monday, May 23rd, 2022

Much of the activity in today’s session will be spent collecting weekend planting data and trying to determine how much of the US spring crops were seeded last week. Given the open conditions across much of the Corn Belt and a push by farmers it is thought big advances took place. There are guesses for corn planting to be at 75% for the US tonight, and soybeans near 55%. The most interest between these two will fall on corn as we are now at a point where yield drag is thought to take place on fields planted after this date. Even with this possibility farmers are not giving any indication of shifting acres to alternative crops due to high returns from elevated futures. This same is being seen where we have reached prevent plant dates on corn. Trade will show less concern on soybeans as the window for seeding that crop is wider than on corn. We will also see interest in this afternoon’s progress report on spring wheat plantings. Last week just 39% of the spring wheat crop was seeded compared to the normal 67%. While planting progressed on this crop as well, it is expected to be less than on other crops, and more likely to see abandoned acres.  

Highlights
* Potential early start to US tropical storm season
* High commodity values limiting demand  
* Buyers not as active on market breaks
* Financials pressuring commodities 
* Consumers push back on high costs  
* More concerns over lack of Black Sea exports
* Chinese ports again unloadings vessels
* Port of Shanghai at 90% capacity 
* High energy costs push renewable fuel usage
* US milk production -1% on April

Corn
* July corn -2 ½ last week
* Planting near 75% tonight
* US highest priced in world market
* More states push E-15 usage 
* Analysts still lowering Safrinha estimates        

Soybeans
* July soybeans +58 ¾ last week
* Planting near 55% tonight  
* US crush margins slip lower
* India to lift Palm Oil restrictions today         
* Canada unlikely to export much canola

Wheat
*July wheat -8 ¾ last week
* Drought expands in China
* New crop demand is light      
* Spring planting to remain slow 
* Winter crop improvement expected
 
Livestock
* May 1st COF 102% 
* May COF highest on record at 11.967 mil head
* Inventory is in a seasonal downtrend
* April placements 99% at 1.8 million
* April marketings 98% at 1.89 million


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Friday, May 20th, 2022

The managed money flow in and out of the markets remains as much of a factor in price discovery at the present time as any other factor, including the US planting reports. This  money flow has been a market factor for several years but has increased recently as the main commodities, including corn, soybeans, wheat, and livestock are included in more investment portfolios. While this has created windows of opportunity for marketing inventory, it has also increased volatility, and made these windows smaller than the support we tend to receive from traditional fundamentals. The expansion into more of a global market has also affected the money flow in and out of commodities. This was verified by the start of the war in the Black Sea and how buyers were quick to add wheat purchases to their positions. While there are concerns over wheat balance sheets that would have likely generated a futures’ rally, the addition of managed money has extended advances. The concern with this market involvement is that if it exits it can cause a correction regardless of fundamentals. For today’s session trade will once again focus on planting and what we may see for progress in next Monday’s update. Trade is already expecting to see another week of big advances, especially in corn and soybeans.  

Highlights
* Russia rejects Ukraine export proposal
* Currency values continue to impact global trade  
* Weak Real encouraging Brazil sales  
* Brazil may exhaust soybean exports by late summer 
* Drought worsens in China  
* Energy costs expected to keep rising 
* Gas could be up 37% by late summer
* Inflation impacting big box stores 
* Countries continue to limit food exports
* Limited shifting in US acres

Corn
* Export sales a light 17.1 mbu for 21-22
* Ukraine planting is advancing
* Ukraine corn acres may top estimates  
* Crop in Ukraine may be 6 mmt above est 
* Argentina may raise export quota to 35 mmt        

Soybeans
* Weekly sales a large 27.7 mbu for 21/22
* Argentine harvest pressure building  
* US crush may be overestimated   
* Will need record crush rest of year         
* China to auction 500,000 mt today   

   

Wheat
* Weekly sales a yearly low at 300,000 bu
* Spring crop acres could fall below 10 mil      
* Crop in So Plains deteriorates 
* India export confusion continues
* Buyers pass on US offers  
 
Livestock
* Weekly beef sales 23,300 mt 
* Weekly pork sales 24,100 mt
* May 1st COF est 101.5%  
* April placements est 96.5% 
* April marketings est 97.9%


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.
 

Morning Comments; Thursday, May 19th, 2022

Trade is starting to pay more attention to the new crop sales volumes in the weekly reports. Current bookings of both new crop corn and soybeans are at record volumes as more buyers show urgency in covering needs. This has been generated by global production concerns and what we may see for availability as the new crop year progresses. It is not surprising that the bulk of these new crop US sales have been with China, where that buyer alone accounts for two-thirds of the soybean bookings. The question this is starting to raise in the market, however, is if these commitments are a true indication of future demand or if sales are simply becoming front loaded. It is not uncommon to see buyers show urgency such as they currently are when covering needs and then step away from the market when they feel they have adequate coverage in place. This means total demand is not up, simply that buyers are extending coverage earlier than normal. This is also a reason why the USDA only increased its new crop export forecast on soybeans by 60 million bu in last week’s balance sheets and lowered corn exports by 100 million bu, even with active bookings.  

Highlights
* Covid delays Chinese spring plantings  
* Covid also disrupting China fertilizer applications  
* Crop reports in China to be limited 
* May take years to build global commodity supply  
* 58% chance of La Nina through October
* La Nina odds increase after that
* Basis values showing more volatility 
* Weekly ethanol production unchanged
* Week to week ethanol stocks -349,000 bbl
* US may increase Canadian crude oil imports

Corn
* Chinese April imports at 2.21 mmt
* Chinese imports +19.4% from last year
* Brazil basis values firming  
* Corn from Brazil a premium to US 
* Ukraine production larger than thought        

Soybeans
* China still sourcing needs from Brazil  
* Chinese coverage thought to be minimal  
* US crush margins slipping   
* Basis values firming         
* Yearly US sales underestimated   

   

Wheat
* Elevated futures limit US demand 
* Minimal feed usage expected      
* India confusion continues 
* Concerns on slow spring planting build
* High prevent plant acres expected  
 
Livestock
* Managed money exits cattle 
* Cash cattle down on the week 
* Average cash cattle bids -$3.00 
* Feeders worried over pasture conditions
* Worst pastures in Texas and Montana


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.
 

Morning Comments; Wednesday, May 18th, 2022

Now that planting is progressing across the United States trade will start to divide its attention between current weather conditions and what we may see over the next several weeks. A concern that is building in the market is the dry soils being reported across much of the Southern US and into the Plains. This is now starting to work its way into the Western Corn Belt and generating ideas of a possible drought during the growing season. The latest data shows nearly 14% of the US corn production area has been drier than normal over the past month. In the May WASDE report the USDA predicted an average corn yield of 177 bushels per acre for the US and if these dry conditions persist and spread that number will likely be lowered. Total corn production in the United States is already expected to fall 105 million bu short of demand for the 2022/23 marketing year and any yield loss will cause this to widen even more. The question will be how far the US corn yield would decline before the USDA starts to trim demand as well. There is less concern on soybeans at this time, but before long, trade will show more interest on potential yield loss there as well.  

Highlights
* US fuel costs keep rising  
* Fed showing more inflation worries  
* More countries expand GMO plantings 
* GMO yields seen as benefit for production  
* Importers showing more food supply concerns
* US planting is advancing quickly
* US export sales may be front-loaded 
* Light frost reported in Brazil 
* Drought continues in Argentina 
* Covid issues remain in China

Corn
* Ukraine May export pace 50% of last year 
* High prices deter global trade 
* Brazilian Safrinha acres larger than thought
* US commitments 92% of yearly forecast        
* Commitments 2% behind normal   

Soybeans
* China continues with reserve auctions  
* China to auction 500,000 mt Friday 
* Brazil yield to average 45 bpa this year  
* US sales above yearly forecast        
* Normally sales are 97% of yearly estimate    

  

Wheat
* Russia raises export forecast
* Russian crop record large      
* Drought lowering Argentine yields 
* Argentina approves GMO wheat production
* Census export data larger than USDA  
 
Livestock
* Wholesale beef firms 
* Pork cutouts rebound
* Managed money impacting livestock 
* Daily cattle slaughter +2.5% last week
* Daily hog slaughter +4.1% last week


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Tuesday, May 17th, 2022

Corn planting across the United States was slightly higher than trade was expecting with 49% of the crop now seeded. While this was a sizable increase on the week it still trails the average pace of 67%. Corn is now 14% emerged with the normal amount being 32%. Soybean planting fell just under trade expectations with 30% of the crop in. This also trails the normal rate by 9%. Soybeans are reported as 9% emerged though, just under the average amount of 12%. On the winter wheat crop all interest was on the rating and this fell to just 27% Good/Excellent as drought and heat continue to impact the Lower Plains states. Spring wheat planting remains heavily delayed with 39% of the crop planted and a normal pace of 67%. What trade may focus on rather than the planting pace on corn and soybeans this week is how much fieldwork will be done in the next seven days. It is likely more planting was done last week than data shows as the weekly numbers are taken as of Sunday. A large volume of planting was done between then and the Monday afternoon release, and much more will be done this week.  

Highlights
* World ethanol demand rising  
* US ethanol logistics improving  
* US ethanol stocks still +24.5% on the year 
* Food inflation at 9.4%  
* China showing more interest in US offers 
* Chinese economy becoming more unstable
* Ukraine port closures hurting country’s economy 
* High prices limit global trade 
* US dollar continues to rally 
* Consumer demand not slowing  

Corn
* Planting progress at 49% 
* Emergence is 14% 
* Farmers increase new crop sales
* Chinese corn demand lowered        
* Interior basis pushes noted  

Soybeans
* Crop is 30% planted  
* Emergence is at 9% 
* EU imports down on the year  
* Smaller Ukraine oilseed crop expected        
* 22/23 Brazil crop estimated at 146 mmt     

Wheat
* Winter wheat rated 27% G/E
* Spring wheat 39% planted      
* Spring wheat emergence at 16% 
* Drought trims Argentine crop
* Ukraine wheat output to drop 33% 
 
Livestock
* Cash cattle trade working lower 
* Pork cutouts softens
* Meat alternatives see major losses
* Beef production to decline in early 2023
* US beef exports +2.9% on the year


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Monday, May 16th, 2022

The release of the May WASDE report is well behind us now, but that does not mean it is not a marketing factor. Trade is fully aware the stocks to use on corn, soybeans, and wheat will remain tight for at least another year, and that is if we do not see any production loss from this point forward. When it comes to the possibility of lower yields the emphasis right now is on the grains, mainly corn. Corn planting has been delayed in several regions of the United States from the average pace this year. Trade is looking at this development in two different ways. One is that even with delays there is plenty of time to see a trend corn yield if the remainder of the growing season is more normal when it comes to weather conditions. Another way trade is looking at it is the rapid planting we experienced in the past few years have distorted the average pace. One thing trade does agree on is that the later corn planting takes place, the greater the possibility of yield drag. The debate is when this reduction starts though, with some saying as soon as May 10th, while others claim loss is not noticeable until we get to June on corn plantings.

Highlights
* 80% of spring wheat area wetter than normal  
* 13% of US corn dry in past 30 days 
* Russian inflation reported at 20%  
* Czech Republic inflation at 14.2% 
* EU to offer Ukraine export assistance 
* China investigating loss of farmland
* US evaluating Chinese trade tariffs 
* China commodity demand is slowing 
* Analysts question high US yield forecasts
* Active planting data expected  

Corn
* July corn -3 ½ last week
* France to reduce corn plantings 5.9% 
* Brazil farm sales down on the year
* Safrinha rating down, better than last year        
* Argentina ramps up exports ahead of tax hike  

Soybeans
* July soybeans +24 ½ last week   
* NOPA crush est 172.37 mbu
* India lowers veg oil import forecast  
* China ups import forecast for next year        
* Total Chinese demand likely peaked      

Wheat
* July Chicago wheat +69 last week
* India shipments uncertain       
* EU harvest to slow Ukraine shipments
* Delays to Dakota’s seedings an issue
* US uncompetitive in global market
 
Livestock
* Markets prepare for Memorial Day 
* Trade expects elevated grilling demand
* Beef values +24% in last quarter
* Pork values up 10.8% last quarter
* Poultry values up 14.4% as well 


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Friday, May 13th, 2022

Now that we have passed the monthly WASDE report, trade will shift its attention back to the fundamental influences it has for the past several weeks. The main one of these is the US planting pace and if any further delays will take place. At the present time it appears as though a large volume of the US corn and soybean crops will be seeded by the end of next week. This will ease worries over yield drag, especially on soybeans. Attention will shift to weather at this time more than it has to see if the crops will be subjected to additional stress. We will also start to see more interest on demand, mainly if buyers are going to show up for late summer coverage as predicted. If we do not see sales start to surface soon trade may rethink its old crop demand predictions. Any developments in the outside markets will remain influential as well, especially what is taking place in the Black Sea. An underlying factor that will be watched for months to come is the US economy and ongoing concerns over inflation and its impact on commodity demand. 

Highlights
* Some buyers posting quick ship incentives 
* Black Sea logistics worsen 
* China to buy pork for reserves today 
* More importers ease GMO regulations
* Importers report light coverage 
* Fertilizer costs to reduce world grain production
* Producers opting for cheaper oilseed crops
* US corn planting slowest since 1990   
* Big increase in plantings expected next Monday
* May contracts expire today  

Corn
* 2021/22 carryout 1.44 bbu
* US corn yield 177 bpa
* Crop est at 14.46 bbu
* 22/23 carryout 1.36 bbu        
* 22/23 ave cash value $6.75/bu  

Soybeans
* 2021/22 carryout 235 mbu   
* Yield estimated 51.5 bpa
* Crop size 4.64 bbu  
* 2022/23 carryout 310 mbu        
* Average cash value $14.40/bu      

Wheat
* US 21/22 carryover 655 mbu
* 2022/23 US production 1.729 bbu       
* US 22/23 ending stocks 619 mbu
* Average cash value $10.75/bu
* Ukraine crop lowered 11.5 mmt        
 
Livestock
* 2022 Beef production 27.84 bil pounds
* 2023 beef production 25.95 bil pounds
* 2022 Pork production 27.04 bil pounds
* 2023 pork production 27.37 bil pounds
* Total 2023 US meat production 105.34 bil pounds 


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.
 

Morning Comments; Thursday, May 12th, 2022

The big story in today’s session will be the release of updated production figures for both the United States and Brazil. To start, Conab will release its official production figures on the Brazilian crops. With the soybean harvest winding down in the country this will give a much clearer indication of final crop size. Trade will also be closely watching the corn production figure to see if Conab believes drought has impacted the crop as much as private analysts have stated it has. For the United States all interest today will be on the release of the monthly WASDE report. This report is the most anticipated of the year as it gives us out first official look at new crop balance sheets. Trade has been looking forward to this release ever since last year’s harvest wound down. The main focus will likely fall on the US corn production data as not only are acres expected to be down from a year ago by a sizable amount, but trade is now starting to question the ability to reach a trend yield given recent weather conditions. Trade is expecting to see tight carryout levels on all new crop contracts which would continue to support commodity values.  

Highlights
* Global food supply worries build 
* US export demand slowing 
* US dollar +6.5% from April 1st 
* Currency values impacting global trade
* Chinese crush margins improving 
* Weekly ethanol production +154,000 bbl  
* Ethanol stocks +253,000 bbl from last week
* Conab data at 7:00 AM CT  
* WASDE data at 11:00 AM CT
* Initial wheat crop assessment today  

Corn
* 2021/22 carryout est 1.41 bbu
* US corn yield est 179 bpa
* Crop est at 14.78 bbu
* 22/23 carryout est 1.3 bbu       
* World 21/22 carryout est 307.3 mmt 

Soybeans
* 2021/22 carryout est 227 mbu  
* Average yield est 51.5 bpa  
* Crop size est 4.63 bbu  
* 2022/23 carryout est 312 mbu        
* 21/22 global carryout est 89 mmt  

  

Wheat
* US 21/22 carryover est 685 mbu
* 2022/23 US production est 1.79 bbu       
* Wheat crop +140 mbu from 21/22 
* US 22/23 ending stocks est 664 mbu  
* World 21/22 carryout est 278.3 mmt       
 
Livestock
* Cash cattle holding $138 to $140 
* Wholesale beef turns mixed
* Average base hog prices firming 
* Pork cutout continues to soften
* Hog slaughter slows, cattle rise


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Wednesday, May 11th, 2022

Much of today’s session will be spent getting final positions in place ahead of tomorrow’s monthly WASDE data. The most interest in this release will be on the new crop balance sheets for the United States. For the most part, trade is expecting to see tight stocks to use numbers across the board for the 2022/23 marketing year. The most interest will likely fall on corn where a smaller crop is already being forecast due to the loss of acreage. Trade will also show considerable interest in the global production numbers, with an emphasis on the Black Sea and South America. For the Black Sea trade will be closely watching to see not only what production adjustments are made to balance sheets, but also for what kind of exports we may see. The same is true for South America, mainly for Brazil. Several private analysts have lowered their Brazilian Safrinha crop estimates in recent weeks, and most are below the USDA. Even with reductions the Brazilian crop will be well above last year’s and open the door for more export trade. This is what trade is most interested in.  

Highlights
* Country selling stalls
* World grain supplies rising 
* Logistic issues lead to high grain stocks
* Managed money volatility builds
* Economy impacting commodity demand
* More Covid restrictions in China 
* Consumers stockpiling food in China
* SAM basis values soften 
* May WASDE tomorrow
* Conab to also update production

Corn
* DDG values under pressure
* Ethanol values weaken
* Sub-trend yield expected
* Large corn supply forecast       
* Trade scouting for possible replants 

Soybeans
* Open interest declining   
* Trade optimistic on yield potential  
* Global canola supply is down  
* US crush margins remain strong        
* Dry conditions speed Arg harvest  

Wheat
* World production questioned   
* Black Sea production to decline       
* Concerns build on US drought 
* Trade uncertain on India production  
* Russia lowers export taxes       
 
Livestock
* China lock-downs slow meat usage 
* Chinese beef imports forecast to increase
* Covid cutting Chinese dairy demand 
* Weekly cattle slaughter +3.8% from last week
* Weekly hog slaughter steady with last week 


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Tuesday, May 10th, 2022

The US planting pace on corn and soybeans came in just under average trade guesses. The US corn crop is now 22% planted compared to the average 50% for this date. Corn is also 5% emerged with the normal amount being 15% of the crop. Soybeans are 12% seeded, half the normal pace. Soybean emergence is at 3%, 1% behind average. The wheat crops continue to struggle, although the winter wheat rating did improve 2% on the week to total 29% Good/Excellent. Winter wheat is also 33% headed compared to the five-year 40% average. Spring wheat is 27% planted and 9% emerged with normal rates being 47% and 15% respectively. We did see a 4% improvement to the US pasture condition, but it is still  a large 52% Poor/Very Poor. Next week’s planting progress report may be one of the most watched of the year. There is a general feel in the market that any corn planted after mid-May sees significant yield drag. The window for planting soybeans is longer with not much yield loss seen until we get into June. Trade will still view any factor that may jeopardize final production of any crop as bullish given current stocks to use projections.  

Highlights
* Drought impacts more US acres
* One-quarter of US corn in drought 
* Worst drought in So US
* US wheat Belt does see precip 
* China shopping for new crop coverage
* Ukraine has 25 mmt of grain to move
* Currency rates affecting global trade
* US inflation report tomorrow
* May WASDE on Thursday
* Also initial winter wheat assessment

Corn
* Corn 22% planted
* Corn 5% emerged
* US forward sales +77% from last year
* 44% of US sales to China       
* Ukraine plantings 25% of last year 

Soybeans
* Soybean planting at 12%  
* Soybean emergence at 3% 
* Forward sales +63% from last year 
* China is 65% of US demand       
* Brazil sales slowing  

Wheat
* Winter wheat rated 20% G/E   
* Spring wheat 27% planted      
* US forward sales -23% on the year
* India putting little wheat into storage 
* Russia predicts 10 mmt increase to storage       
 
Livestock
* Wholesale beef weaker 
* Pork cut out under pressure
* Economy weighs on meat demand
* Cumulative cattle slaughter +0.5% 
* YTD hog slaughter -5.4%


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Monday, May 9th, 2022

Nearly all interest to start this week’s trade will be on getting positions in place ahead of the monthly WASDE report. This is the most highly anticipated supply and demand report of the marketing year as it contains the initial look at official new crop balance sheets. The United States is already seeing ending stocks that are at minimal levels and it is likely this will carry over to new crop as well. It is likely that new crop corn balance sheets will tighten even more given the loss of acreage that has taken place from last year. Even if soybean acres are up as much as the USDA is publishing ending stocks will likely remain tighter than usual given our projected demand. Trade will also be paying close attention to planting reports from across the United States this week to see how much of the corn can be planted by next week. Trade tends to believe that any corn planted after May 15th is likely to see yield drag. Given current weather models it is likely a large amount of planting will take place this week, but it is unlikely all of the country’s corn will be seeded by week end. For today’s session, all interest will fall on planting reports and US weather outlooks to start.  

Highlights
* Importers shop for fertilizer coverage
* May take years for fertilizer to recover losses 
* Ukraine grain storage concerns build
* Ukraine spring crops 31% planted
* Total Ukraine acres to decline 20% 
* Ukraine exports remain slow
* More sanctions placed on Russia
* US pushes for food security
* Importers shopping for late summer coverage
* May WASDE on Thursday

Corn
* July corn -28 ¾ last week
* Drought hits parts of Brazil
* Brazil optimistic on corn production
* Ethanol margins at 15c/gal       
* Feed demand likely to rise 

Soybeans
* July soybeans -62 ¾ last week
* More import interest in sunflower oil
* Domestic buyers keep pushing bids 
* Chinese crush margins improve      
* US sales above yearly estimates

Wheat
* July wheat +52 ¾ last week    
* Heat, drought still impact India production      
* India still predicting large exports   
* Texas crop seeing drought losses 
* Ukraine optimistic on production       
 
Livestock
* Cash cattle trade from $140 to $144
* YTD beef exports 309,000 mt
* YTD beef exports +2.4% from last year
* YTD pork exports 502,000 mt
* Pork exports well behind last year
 

Morning Comments; Friday, May 6th, 2022

We are now approaching a heavily watched point in the US planting season. Several analysts claim that any corn planted after May 10th will see a yield reduction from earlier planted fields. While this may be true in some cases, it is also possible that given the recent cool temperatures that later planted fields may yield not different than earlier seeded ones. In fact, it is not out of the question that fields being planted now or next week may be better off given improving conditions across the United States. The most concern right now is in the Dakotas where fields remain saturated in several areas. This elevates the possibility of fields being unplanted altogether this year as we approach the Preventative Planting dates. It is interesting to note that even in the Deep South where we have passed these dates farmers have opted to keep planting corn. The higher return on corn is a primary reason for this activity. The question this raises is if total US corn acres may be underestimated this year as several economists have stated all along. It is also possible that many farmers have opted to simply wait until field conditions are favorable to reduce the need for replants, especially with the high price of corn inputs.  

Highlights
* Firming Brazilian Real slows selling 
* Forward sales to limit acreage shifting 
* Greatest planting delays remain in Upper Plains
* Delta farmers planting past insurance dates 
* Covid restricts food movement in China
* US export loadings behind needed amounts
* Domestic grain/soy usage remains high
* US pastures in poor condition 
* Mato Grasso drought worsens
* US weather to test crop genetics

Corn
* Weekly sales -10% at 30.8 mbu
* Export demand is slowing 
* Importers shopping for late summer needs
* High futures limit acreage shifting       
* Ethanol demand at pre-pandemic levels 

Soybeans
* Weekly sales +53% at 27 mbu
* Argentine crop 50% harvested
* Argentine exports rising 
* EU sunflower plantings increase      
* China to auction 500,000 mt today

Wheat
* Weekly sales +65% at 4.4 mbu    
* Rains benefit So Plains      
* Upper Plains remain cold/wet   
* India wheat quality an issue 
* Texas wheat in poor shape      
 
Livestock
* Beef sales 14,600 metric tons
* Top beef buyers were Japan and So Korea
* China bought small volume of beef
* Pork sales totaled 23,800 metric tons
* Half of pork was sold to Mexico


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Thursday, May 5th, 2022

We are now one week away from the much anticipated May WASDDE report. Trade has been awaiting these numbers for months as they contain the first official look at new crop balance sheet estimates. Thoughts are ending stocks will remain tight next year, especially on corn and wheat. Soybean carryout is also forecast to remain tighter than normal, but we may see a slight increase from this year’s ending stocks given the higher forecast to planted acres we have seen. Old crop carryout will still be a factor for the market as even though export demand for US corn and soybeans remains high, cumulative loadings are not at a level that would support current yearly projections. It is quite likely we will not see these totals adjusted lower, if needed, until later in the marketing year. This is mainly from thoughts US exports will increase later in the marketing year as competing sources in the global market start to deplete their reserves. There are several moving parts in all of these estimates and we will undoubtedly see several changes as both the old crop and new crop marketing years progress.  

Highlights
* Rainy season ends in Brazil
* World food market stressed by Black Sea war
* US farmer interest back to planting
* Rumors of US export sales shifting to SAM 
* US temps remain below normal
* US dollar remains very strong
* Chinese economy continues to slow
* More countries drop import tariffs 
* Weekly ethanol production +42,000 bbl
* Weekly ethanol stocks -78,000 bbl

Corn
* US corn highest priced in global market
* US corn 50c/bu above Brazil 
* Argentine corn $1.00/bu under US
* EU predicts slight crop reduction      
* Ukraine officials optimistic on production 

Soybeans
* China buying Brazil soy for July
* Later Brazil yields increase
* Brazil basis remains pressured 
* Biodiesel values firming      
* China to auction 500,000 mt Friday

Wheat
* Ukraine lowers crop estimate    
* US missing out on export business     
* India exports questioned  
* US crop remains heavily stressed 
* High prices limit global trade      
 
Livestock
* Meat supplies run low in parts of China
* Chinese dairy supply also stressed
* Cash cattle market untested so far 
* Weekly cattle slaughter -5.2%  
* Weekly hog slaughter +1.8%


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Tuesday, May 3rd, 2022

Very little planting progress was made last week which is not surprising given recent weather conditions. As of last Sunday 14% of the US corn crop was seeded compared to the 33% average and 42% a year ago. Corn emergence stands at 3%, just half of the average amount. The US soybean planting pace is at 8% compared to the average 13%. The US winter wheat crop rating continues to decline and now stands at 27% while the Poor/Very Poor volume increased to 43% of the crop. Spring wheat planting is also slower than average at 19%. The normal volume of spring wheat seeded at this time is 28% of the crop. A number that is starting to get more attention is the US pasture condition which is 56% Poor/Very Poor. Trade will take this week’s progress numbers and try to predict how much of the US corn crop will be seeded by the end of next week. Any corn seeded after mid-May tends to see yield loss, but the amount can vary. If the crop is planted later but experiences perfect growing conditions, it can yield better than an early seeded crop that struggles with adverse weather past that point. The same is true on soybeans but there is more time for that crop to be planted.

Highlights
* China to inject money into economy
* More damage reported to Ukraine infrastructure 
* US yearly rail grain movement -25% 
* Rail grain movement -14% from 5-year ave
* OPEC+ to continue with production increase
* China to lower import duty on coal
* Ukraine rail movement again taking place 
* Mines in Ukraine fields a major concern  
* World food values continue to rally
* Dakotas again see major planting delays

Corn
* Planting pace is 14% 
* Emergence is just 3% 
* Argentine corn basis firming      
* Argentine crop just 18% G/E     
* March ethanol demand 455 mbu

Soybeans
* Planting pace now at 8%
* March crush 193 mbu
* March oil production at 2.28 bil pounds
* EU to import less soy in 22/23     
* US crush margins hold above $2.00/bu

     

Wheat
* Winter wheat rated just 27% G/E   
* Spring wheat planting at 19%    
* Drought cuts EU production  
* Ukraine wheat planting 25% of estimate 
* US new crop demand -14% on the year      
 
Livestock
* Chinese officials report smaller hog herd
* End of March sow inventory -3.3% from Feb  
* Total Chinese hog herd -5.9% from Feb 
* Global bird flu cases continue to rise 
* 35 million US birds culled from bird flu  


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Monday, May 2nd, 2022

Now that the calendar has shifted to May, we will see more attention placed on the US planting pace. This is especially on the US corn crop as history shows any crop planted after mid-May tends to see yield pressure. This does not mean corn will not be planted after the middle of the month, but trade analysts will start to reduce yield potential on those acres. The window for planting soybeans is wider with some experts claiming little yield loss happens even if the crop is seeded in early June. Given current forecast models it seems as though most of the US crop will be seeded within this time frame. Now is also when we start to see more interest on US weather models for crop development. It is not uncommon to see these conditions have more of an influence on final yields than what has taken place up to this point. We will also start to see more interest on the upcoming WASDE report that will be released on the 12th. This is one of the most closely watched USDA reports of the year as it contains our first official look at new crop balance sheets.  

Highlights
* Mines an issue for Black Sea movement 
* Russians confiscating Ukraine farm equipment 
* Most US export demand is new crop 
* US ethanol margins improve
* Trade more interested in US planting pace
* Chinese consumers hoarding food products
* Higher values encourage global production
* US trucking demand -23% from last year 
* Fertilizer values showing more volatility
* Global economic growth slowing

Corn
* July corn +24 ½ last week
* EU may suspend duties on Ukraine imports
* Analysts lower Safrinha estimates     
* Ukraine losing grain storage space    
* Daily limit increased to 50 cents 

Soybeans
* July soybeans -3 ¼ last week
* March crush est 192.8 mbu
* Brazil farmers increase sales 
* Brazil yearly meal exports +35.4%     
* Daily limit increased to $1.15    

  

Wheat
* July wheat -19 ½ last week  
* 2022/23 Australian crop est 29 mmt  
* Australian crop -7 mmt from this year 
* Limited US harvest pressure expected 
* Daily limit increased to 70 cents      
 
Livestock
* Cash cattle trade very thin
* Grains pressure feeder margins 
* Wholesale beef weakens
* YTD beef exports +1.9% 
* YTD pork exports -27%


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Friday, April 29th, 2022

The bulk of today’s session will be spent getting final positions in place for month end. The May contracts are all in delivery and this is impacting market volatility. As the impact of month end starts to recede trade will again shift its focus back to immediate fundamental factors, with the US planting pace being the primary one. Corn and soybean planting remains slow across the Corn Belt but is still not at a pace where additional risk premium is needed in futures. This will change once we move into May and the psychological factor starts to increase, especially if progress is now being seen. What will quickly become more of a factor in the market is crop development. Some fields that have been seeded across the US are not germinating as fast as hoped which elevates the possibility of replants. While this does not necessarily mean a smaller crop, it will increase the cost of production and lower returns. What is a greater concern is the ability to find needed inputs if replanting is needed. As a result, some farmers have opted to wait for better soil conditions which is further slowing the overall rate of progress.

Highlights
* Logistics an issue for US processors 
* US farmer movement stalls 
* Producers expect higher commodity values 
* Global food supply worries economists 
* Parts of US Plains driest in recent history
* Flooding a concern in Dakotas
* China extends Covid restrictions
* Planting expected to advance next week 
* More attention shown on crop development 
* FND on May contracts

Corn
* Export sales 34.1 mbu old crop, 33.2 mbu new
* Countries replacing Ukraine purchases
* 75% of Safrinha reported in drought     
* 2022/23 Argentine crop est 52 mmt    
* Daily limit to 50 cents next Monday 

Soybeans
* Export sales 17.7 mbu old, 21.3 mbu new
* US tops yearly sales prediction
* China to auction 500,000 mt today
* 2022/23 Argentine crop est 51 mmt    
* Daily limit to $1.15 next Monday    

Wheat
* Weekly sales 1.2 mbu old, 4.6 mbu new  
* Canadian exports -42% on the year  
* French wheat remains 90% G/E 
* China ends wheat auctions for the year 
* Daily limit to 70 cents next Monday     
 
Livestock
* Beef sales 11,400 mt
* Pork sales 31,500 mt 
* Wholesale beef weakens
* Pork cut outs under pressure
* Hog slaughter pace improves


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Thursday, April 28th, 2022

The spread of the Omicron variant of Covid continues to be a major factor in global markets. The most attention right now is on China where the country continues to impose lockdowns to try and prevent its spread. This has already slowed Chinese commodity demand and will likely be a factor for the next several weeks. Consumers in China have hoarded products ahead of these restrictions and are now scaling back their purchases. The most concern being voiced with these restrictions is how long they may last. The sooner China starts to lift these, obviously the less impact they will have. What is more of a concern now is how these are going to impact the country’s spring planting season and if they will cause an adjustment to acres. There are also worries being raised over what these lockdowns will mean for the global supply line. Products out of China were just starting to reach pre-pandemic levels and now additional disruptions are being seen. One of the most worrisome for Agriculture is fertilizer supplies. These logistic issues are also affecting the country’s imports and altering what China may ultimately need for the entire year.  

Highlights
* Ukraine spring planting pace now -21% 
* Corn plantings in Ukraine -31% 
* Chinese crude oil demand -20% 
* Covid continues to spread in China 
* Global economy remains pressured 
* Chinese currency rating lowest since 2020  
* Cash ethanol values firming
* DDG values weaken 
* Weekly ethanol production +112,000 barrels 
* Ethanol stocks -377,000 barrels

Corn
* Argentine farmer selling increases
* Argentine crop better than expected
* Corn out of Argentina $1.20 under US     
* Corn oil values soften    
* Buyers showing more Brazil interest 

Soybeans
* Outstanding sales a record 780 mbu
* US outstanding sales +37% previous record
* Canada to increase canola blended biodiesel    
* Canada to bump blend from 8% to 20%  
* Ukraine sunseed acres -28%    

Wheat
* US export forecast too high  
* Exports likely to be lowered 20 mbu  
* US wheat highest priced in global market
* Russia reports active planting 
* Russian exports may decline 50% this year     
 
Livestock
* Weekly cattle slaughter +4.9% on the year
* Yearly cumulative cattle slaughter + ½%   
* Weekly hog slaughter -3.93% from last year 
* Slow exports offset slow hog slaughter 
* High feed costs pressuring margins


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Wednesday, April 27th, 2022

Trade is starting to place more interest on month end positions as all spot contracts will go into delivery this Friday. We have seen several positions rolled out already which may lessen the volatility this tends to bring. Given the large volume of managed money and a high level of open interest in the commodities volatility remains elevated though, regardless of month end positioning. This will only increase as we get further into the spring planting season and summer growing and development takes place. Given tight US ending stocks estimates large crops are needed across the board which is keeping outside investor interest in commodities high. For today’s session trade will be closely monitoring the weekly ethanol production report. For the past four weeks we have seen lower production totals than the week before. Ethanol stocks have been on a steady decline though and have receded for three consecutive weeks. We are starting to hear of elevated logistic issues on US rail lines though and these may start to hinder movement and consumption. Trade is also monitoring fuel consumption on a whole to try and predict what our summer demand will be, and if inflation concerns may limit travel plans.

Highlights
* China cuts feed grain usage forecast
* Global feed usage being questioned
* Weak Chinese currency pressure profit margins
* US acreage debate continues 
* No significant alterations expected 
* Country movement again slows  
* Argentine acres underestimated  
* World leaders look to provide food security 
* Drought intensifies in WCB 
* Logistic issues hamper US ethanol production

Corn
* Feeders continue to shift to corn
* Chinese buying slows
* Argentine harvest pace +6% on the year    
* US exports 50.5% of USDA est    
* US cumulative sales 89% of est   

Soybeans
* World soy supply expected to increase
* Oil seed producers limit exports
* Argentine harvest pace +12% on the year   
* US sales 99% of yearly forecast 
* Loadings are 80% of yearly projection  

Wheat
* Egypt wheat supply adequate for 2022  
* Buyers pass on US offers  
* Fertilizer to impact Argentine plantings
* Brazil projects crop at 9 mmt 
* Snow slows Canadian plantings     
 
Livestock
* China lowers poultry flock numbers
* US bird flu continues to spread   
* Chinese yearly pork imports -68% 
* All other importers -6% on the year 
* Low production negates slow exports


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Tuesday, April 26th, 2022

While planting did take place across the United States last week, the progress was slow which was fully expected. A reported 7% of the US corn crop is now seeded, up 3% on the week. This compares to the five-year average of 15% for this date. Corn emergence is at 2% which is just under the 3% average. The US soybean crop is now 3% planted, up 2 points on the week. This compares to the five-year average planting pace on soybeans of 5%. The US winter wheat rating declined 3% last week and now stands at 27% Good/Excellent. Spring wheat planting came in at 13% finished, just under the 15% average rate. Spring wheat is 2% emerged, half of the normal rate. While the planting pace in the United States is being heavily monitored and concerns are being voiced over the slower advancement, a jump to plantings is expected this week. Planting conditions are improving in several regions of the Corn Belt and progress will be made. The concern now is the cold temperatures and how these will impact germination and plant development. These conditions are already stressing crops in a year where no loss of production can be tolerated.  

Highlights
* Fertilizer values again working higher
* Concerns on crop protection product availability
* US overpriced in global market
* Chinese commodity demand slows 
* Trade removes Black Sea from supply outlooks 
* US logistics remain a concern  
* US corn/soybean sales near yearly estimates  
* Covid is slowing Chinese economy 
* Stats Canada acreage data today
* Friday is FND on May contracts

Corn
* Planting progress at 7%; ave is 15%
* US unshipped sales at 790.5 mbu      
* New crop sales total 132.4 mbu    
* Argentine corn $1.20 under US    
* Chinese corn reaches $11.65/bu   

Soybeans
* Planting progress at 3%, 5% is average
* Unshipped sales at 407.1 mbu 
* New crop sales at 373.4 mbu   
* Argentine soy 65 cents under US 
* Chinese needs questioned  

Wheat
* Winter wheat rated 27% G/E  
* Spring wheat 13% planted  
* Unshipped sales at 96.1 mbu
* New crop sales at 78.7 mbu 
* Russian wheat crop record large     
 
Livestock
* US beef exports total 271,000 mt 
* Beef exports record high   
* US pork exports at 439,600 mt 
* US yearly pork exports -24% 
* Wholesale beef, pork pressured


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Monday, April 25th, 2022

The majority of this week’s trade will be spent getting positions in place for month end. All spot contracts go into delivery this month which will elevate market action. Many traders have already shifted their positions which will help ease this a bit. As we move into the end of April more attention starts to be placed on the pace of the US planting season. Cold and wet conditions have delayed the start of the planting season in parts of the United States, and this will continue to for this week as well. Until now this has not been much of a factor in price discovery, but as we approach May, it will have more of an influence. As we move into May more comparisons are made between the US planting pace and what impact it has on yield. While delayed plantings can affect production, history shows that growing season conditions can be just as much of a factor. Trade will be closely monitoring where planting is taking place for crop reports to see if crops are developing. Any replants that may be needed will also impact production outlooks. To see the volume of risk premium in the market increase over the next few weeks would not be a surprise.

Highlights
* Russia making exports despite sanctions
* US lacks heat units
* US basis values mixed
* Basis firmer in West than East 
* Processing margins pressured in China 
* China predicts fewer commodity imports 
* Analysts continues to predict higher corn acres  
* Currency values impacting global trade
* Planting to advance this week
* Friday is FND on May contracts

Corn
* May corn +2 ¾ last week
* Brazil reporting mixed weather      
* Some regions of Brazil heavily stressed    
* Ukraine planting just 4% complete   
* EU exporting more corn   

Soybeans
* May soybeans +33 ¾ last week 
* Chinese cumulative imports -18% yearly 
* Chinese imports from US down 30%   
* China still 2/3 of US trade 
* Total US exports still underestimated  

Wheat
* May wheat -2 ½ last week  
* Trade questions large India crop  
* India crop est at 110 mmt
* Trade struggling with Black Sea crop potential 
* EU yearly exports -4%     
 
Livestock
* April 1st COF 102% 
* March placements 100%   
* March marketings 98% 
* Beef in cold storage 536.0 mil pounds
* Pork in cold storage 487.19 mil pounds


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Friday, April 22nd, 2022

Weather remains one of the most influential fundamental factors in daily price discovery. This is a result of the start of the planting season in the United States, but also for the ending of the second growing season in South America. In the United States much of the focus has been on the drier conditions in the Plains and the west conditions in the Eastern Corn Belt and Delta regions. As for the Plains, parts of this region of the US have picked up precipitation in recent weeks. One event that brought moisture was the spring blizzard that hit the Dakotas. While this may have brought moisture, the snow has also delayed the spring panging season. Planting delays are also starting to be noted in the Eastern US. What is more of a worry is the cold temperatures for much of the US as well. Not only are cold temperatures causing a delay in the start of planting, but they are preventing soils from drying out. These conditions will be much more of a factors as we move into late April and turn to May. In South America harvest is progressing and rains have been seen as more beneficial for later developing crops that initially thought.

Highlights
* Black Sea logistics to impact market for years 
* Now reports of grain damage in BS vessels 
* Ukraine war impacting other industries
* Ukraine steel production -40% 
* US interest rates to climb faster than thought  
* La Nina odds remain high at 59%  
* Natural gas values highest in 14 years
* US rail logistics impacting fertilizer deliveries
* US dollar losing preference in world market
* Last trading day for May options   

Corn
* Weekly export sales were 34.6 mbu
* Argentine corn $1.00/bu under US      
* Ukraine shifting grain acres to sunseed    
* US corn loadings above 1 mmt for 15 weeks   
* Record high on July corn is $8.24   

Soybeans
* Weekly export sales were 16.9 mbu 
* China to auctions 500,000 mt today 
* Last Chinese auction brought few buyers  
* Ukraine farmers seeding sunflower crop 
* Argentine harvest 14% complete  

Wheat
* Weekly export sales totaled 970,000 bu  
* Weekly sales a marketing year low  
* Ukraine vessels re-routed to Turkey 
* Egypt to start taking India wheat 
* US Wheat Belt remains in drought conditions    
 
Livestock
* Weekly beef sales -13% at 15,000 mt 
* Pork sales a marketing year low at 12,900 mt
* April 1st COF est 100.4% 
* March placements est 92.1% 
* March marketings est 98.1%. 


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.