News Source: SETZ

Morning Comments; Wednesday, January 26th, 2022

The US acreage debate is already starting to heat up. This started last week when a well followed firm predicted US soybean acres will be greater than corn for just the second time in history. This group is predicting a 6% increase in US soybean acres, mainly from the high price of inputs on corn, with fertilizer being the primary one. While fertilizer values are in fact elevated form last year, many producers across the United States have already applied their corn fertilizer as they were concerned with availability this spring. Many producers are also claiming that even with elevated fertilizer costs their projected return on corn is higher than on soybeans which may limit any shifting. Aside from inputs there are several other factors that will impact next spring’s acreage, including local demand, weather, and crop rotations. Historically farmers do not alter their rotations regardless of economics. The most shifting in acreage tends to be in fringe areas where farmers have more crop choices, including wheat. Given the current economics on wheat we could easily see that crop take more corn acres than soybeans. Trade will continue to closely monitor developments in the Black Sea today, mainly if any action including possible sanctions is taken with Russia.  

Highlights
* Argentina needs more rain soon 
* Paraguay driest in 35 years
* Labor issues continue to impact global logistics
* Low water/icing hamper US river movement  
* Global logistics to improve my Mid-February  
* Brazil harvest pace gaining momentum
* Yields remain highly variable
* Managed money flow remains mixed       
* US feed grain demand is high
* Developments in Black Sea benefit US

Corn
* Farmer movement increases
* Export interest is routine
* Canada buying more US corn
* US export pace remains slow 
* High weekly ethanol use expected 

Soybeans
* Arg farmers not cutting back on acres 
* Global veg oil production rising
* World veg oils expected to soften     
* Brail farm sales are light  
* China showing late-summer interest    

Wheat
* Black Sea politics support futures
* World milling supply contracts
* Feed wheat still displacing corn 
* Trade questions global expansion 
* Wheat following US dollar
 
Livestock
* Cattle slaughter -6% on the year  
* Yearly hog slaughter -8%    
* Cash cattle trade is light  
* China continues to buy US beef
* China accounts for 20% of US beef sales


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Tuesday, January 25th, 2022

Trade continues to receive mixed crop reports out of South America. This is not surprising given the wide ranges of growing conditions that have been seen in Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay. While parts of these countries have in  fact been impacted by drought conditions, not all crops have been hurt. This is especially the case in Brazil where parts of Northern and Central regions claim yields may be record sized. The question now is if these areas will produce enough bushels to offset losses in others. Another factor that is giving trade mixed signals on potential crop size in these countries is acreage. Reports from field scouts in South America are indicating plantings were likely larger than what is currently being used in balance sheets. We need to remember that planting was still taking place when data was collected for the January WASDE report and total seedings may exceed projections. This is especially the case in Argentina where farmers may have shifted more acres from soybeans to corn to avoid high export taxes. It is also unknown how much double cropping will take place in South America, and with weather conditions indicating they may turn more favorable and high returns we may see larger Safrinha plantings.  

Highlights
* Feb expected to remain dry in SAM 
* Canada showing more interest in US offers
* US farm sales perking up
* Commercial movement also rising  
* Soil moisture building in PNW  
* Fertilizer values show signs of topping
* Food values continue to rise globally
* Managed money flow becoming erratic       
* 73% of Argentine corn fair or better
* 63% of Argentine soy fair or better

Corn
* Analysts raise Ukraine crop size
* Ukraine crop est 40 mmt; USDA at 42 mmt
* Inputs may not impact US plantings
* Average US basis -14 cents 
* Basis 3 cents better than last year 

Soybeans
* 25% of Brazil soy in drought 
* US exports may be underestimated
* China likely to buy more US soybeans     
* Soybeans follow global oilseed market  
* Products continue to provide support    

Wheat
* US sees competition in global market
* Argentina, Australia leading exports
* Wheat more heavily used as feed grain 
* Little worry on US winterkill 
* World wheat supply expected to stabilize
 
Livestock
* High feed grain costs a concern  
* Boxed beef continues to rally   
* Pork cut outs weaker  
* Cattle weights up 6 pounds on the year
* Weights lead to record beef production


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Monday, January 24th, 2022

The Brazilian harvest is progressing but at a much slower than expected pace. The soybean harvest is Brazil is just 2% complete as rains have delayed activity in northern and central regions of the country. The harvest of the winter corn crop is at 6% which is also slower than expected. The harvest started three weeks sooner than average which was expected to make progress quick all season. So far yield reports are quite variable which is not surprising. What trade has been just as interested in is quality, and so far, this has not been as low as thought given the ongoing rainfall. This is especially the case on the soybeans. The question now is if this slower harvest pace will impact double cropping, and at this time, it is unlikely to affect planting decisions. Corn and soybean values remain quite favorable for Brazilian farmers and an active Safrinha planting is still forecast. If the recent shift in weather conditions continue, we may even see elevated plantings of Safrinha. Last year later plantings to the summer corn crop in Brazil buffered the crop against La Nina losses and the same pattern is expected this year as well.

Highlights
* Rain benefit in SAM questioned
* Dry soils may limit double cropping
* 70% of Brazil soy area is missing rains
* US interest rates rising  
* Farmers expect higher spring markets  
* Trade monitoring Chinese talks
* Still hopes for Phase 2 agreement
* Geopolitical tensions remain high      
* Conflict would support US grain exports
* US processors report adequate coverage

Corn
* Last week corn gained 20 cent
* Export sales rebounded to 43 mbu
* Corn basis softening internally
* Ethanol demand forecast to slow
* China corn at $11.00 per bu 

Soybeans
* Last week soybeans gained 44 ½ cents
* Export sales totaled 24.7 mbu
* Crush margins remain favorable    
* Global margins are softer  
* Brazil soy a premium to US  

Wheat
* Last week wheat gained 38 ½ cents
* Export sales totaled 14 mbu
* China continues to auction reserves 
* Average auction value is $11.63/bu
* Argentine wheat supply +22% from last year
 
Livestock
* Jan 1st COF 100% year ago 
* Dec placements 106% of last year  
* Dec marketings 100%  
* US monitors bird flu in Carolinas
* Govt officials worried over ASF in US


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Friday, January 21st, 2022

Trade remains heavily focused on Chinese import demand and what it may mean for US exports in 2022. Chinese imports were mixed in 2021, with soybeans declining from the previous year. This was the first year to year decrease since 2018. There are thoughts this demand will rebound in 2022, but that depends heavily upon the country’s feed demand, and this outlook remains neutral at best. China has seen a considerably faster rebuild in its hog herd following the African Swine Fever outbreak and the country now has an overabundance in pork to work through as this domestic supply has been added to a large volume of imported pork. China bought and imported a large volume of pork in 2020 and the start of 2021 to cover ASF losses, but then the Covid outbreak dropped demand to minimal levels. China ended up importing 8% less pork in 2021 than 2020 as a result. China did increase its beef imports though, with purchases from the US reaching a record 152,000 metric tons. The question now is if China will remain an elevated buyer of US beef now that trade relations with Brazil are improving and that country may resume exports.  

Highlights
* US exports expected to rebound
* Chinese economy not stable
* Icing builds on US rivers
* Water levels remain low in SAM rivers  
* Rains may help replenish waterways  
* Commodities lack significant risk premium
* Crude oil highest since 2014
* SAM basis values firming      
* Political issues drive global markets 
* Technicals limit gains

Corn
* Brazil sources predict larger crop than USDA 
* Brazil initial corn harvest 6% complete
* Global corn consumption lowered
* China 2021 imports at 28.4 mmt
* China’s 2021 imports +52% from 2020 

Soybeans
* Brazil export forecast 6 mmt under USDA 
* Brazil harvest 2% finished 
* Chinese demand continues to slip    
* World soy production estimates rising  
* Rains prevent further losses in SAM  

Wheat
* Market closely monitoring world politics
* Russia lowers export tax
* Milling wheat continues to rally 
* Ukraine will not limit exports
* Chinese 2021 imports +16.6% 
 
Livestock
* Cattle on feed after the close
* Jan 1st COF est 99.7%  
* Dec placements est 101.8%   
* Dec marketings est 100.9%  
* Slow slaughter pace continues


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Thursday, January 20th, 2022

The US commodity market is in a seasonal transition period that occurs nearly every year at this time. The harvest has wrapped up in the United States, but we are not into the next spring season yet. More attention tends to fall on the South American crops as a result as they are being heavily influenced by weather, which is a primary reason why values have rallied in recent weeks. This has also increased market volatility as market direction shifts with every differing forecast, same as it tends to in the United States. We are also seeing a difference in opinion on the South American crop sizes. Even with soybean production losses in some regions of Brazil, others are reporting very good and a few record yields, which is adding to market uncertainty. The markets also tend to focus more on outside influences for price discovery at this time, including technical indicators. Soybeans have traded into overbought territory recently which has capped fresh buying, even with friendly fundamental news. Before long trade will start to once again show more interest in US weather patterns and conditions ahead of the spring planting season though, and traders will transition their focus as well.  

Highlights
* Commodity demand outpacing production
* Drought still impacting SAM logistics
* Parana water level lowest since 1945
* US ethanol margins under pressure  
* Ethanol values -50c in past week  
* Rumors of China making good faith purchases
* Geopolitical tensions supporting Us markets
* Commodities expected to remain strong in 2022      
* Some economists predict values to rally 16% 
* Inflation remains market concern

Corn
* New crop sales are light 
* EU crop bumped higher
* Planting slow in Argentina 
* China remains absent from buying
* World crop prospects rising 

Soybeans
* China sourcing needs from Brazil
* 25% of Arg crush down from Covid 
* Palm Oil production to increase 5% in 2022    
* Paraguay exports -4.4% in 2021  
* Argentina not offering meal for export

Wheat
* US exports likely overestimated 
* Argentine crop a record 21.8 mmt             
* Drought impacts total No American crop 
* EU production underestimated
* Global values weaken
 
Livestock
* 2021 Chinese pork production was 53 mmt
* China’s pork output back to pre-ASF levels 
* US pork values over-extended  
* Boxed beef showing strength 
* Jan Cattle on Feed tomorrow afternoon


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.
 

Morning Comments; Wednesday, January 19th, 2022

The United States has not seen the export interest that was hoped for to start the marketing year. The main reason for this is elevated competition from other suppliers in the global market, mainly South America, Ukraine, and Australia. Even though these sources are still exporting bushels, the price spread between them and the US is starting to narrow. This is mostly being noted on Brazilian soybeans where the price difference has narrowed up to 30 cents for summer delivery. This comes as the size of the Brazilian soybean crop is reduced by crop scouts. As long as production losses in South America continue the spread will narrow. The question is how many buyers will pay elevated values for US offers and how many will shop for alternative grain and oilseed needs. While there are few choices for soybeans, buyers can import distiller grains for animal feed which has been happening in recent weeks. This has been a great benefit for the US ethanol industry. We are also seeing more buyers take feed grain as an alternative to corn which has been happening for the past year. Given the abundance of low quality wheat out of Australia, buyers have plenty to choose from. The most noted of these is China who has been buying feed wheat in larger quantities.  

Highlights
* Heavier than expected rains in SAM
* SAM crop estimate range expands
* Acreage keeps some estimates elevated
* Country movement remains slow  
* Basis volatility is building  
* Farmers using deferred pay for cash flow
* Economists remain bullish commodities 
* Weather focus shifting to US      
* 67% chance of La Nina into May
* 51% chance of neutral La Nina by June

Corn
* Parana corn rated 32% G/E 
* Brazil corn 3% harvested
* Feed grain exports slowing 
* Some analysts raise Brazil crop est
* Argentine corn crop -5 mmt

Soybeans
* NOPA Dec 21 crush a record 186.44 mbu
* Parana crop rated 29% G/E 
* India yearly soy oil imports +22%    
* China is 57% of US demand  
* Global soy production 2 mmt under usage

Wheat
* Australian crop est rising 
* Buyers focused on Australian offers             
* Black Sea weather improves
* High wheat values elevating food costs
* 70% of winter wheat in drought
 
Livestock
* YTD cattle slaughter -131,000 head
* YTD hog slaughter -825,000 head
* Weaker grains benefit margins 
* Pork demand is questioned
* USDA tends to underestimate consumption


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Tuesday, January 18th, 2022

Demand for US corn, soybeans, and wheat has been less than hoped for in recent months. This is especially the case for the grains where the United States continues to see elevated competition from other suppliers in the global market, mainly Ukraine, Australia, and even South America. The most surprising of these is South America as trade had expected those countries to be out of exportable inventory long ago. The fact these countries are still exporting means last year’s crops may have been underestimated, especially in Brazil. Ukraine is also exporting a record corn crop and taking a large portion of the Asian business the United States typically sees. The most concern up to now has been on wheat where Australia, the Black Sea, and Argentina are supplying the world with much of its current needs. The question now is when the United States will see buyers return. Many analysts are expecting these other grain sources to be out of product by early summer and the United States will see elevated demand at that time. This is especially if the South American corn crop starts to deteriorate more than it already has.  

Highlights
* US barge draft issues continue
* Transit issues impact exports 
* Low water again impacting SAM river movement  
* Argentine barge capacity cut by 30% 
* Weather likely to lead to additional food inflation 
* SAM harvest to advance this week 
* Not all analysts lower SAM crops     
* Consumer confidence a market concern
* Gasoline values top ethanol 
* Global processing margins start to slip

Corn
* Last week corn was down 10 ½ cents
* Average Brazil yield est 86 bpa
* China lowers corn use forecast 
* Feed biggest decline in Chinese demand 
* Record low stocks/use forecast in Argentina

Soybeans
* Soybeans -40 ½ last week
* NOPA crush today est 185 mbu 
* EU imports jump considerably   
* Argentina still exporting old crop products  
* Chinese imports drop

Wheat
* Wheat down 17 cents last week
* EU crop estimate rising            
* Buyers now taking Australian milling offers
* US exports remain sluggish
* World wheat supplies tight but adequate
 
Livestock
* US beef exports +9% in 2021
* Us pork exports -8% in 2021
* Wholesale beef is firming 
* Slaughter remains slow
* Cattle on feed this Friday


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Friday, January 14th, 2022

We are at a point where we see a shift in market focus take place. We are starting to see a shift in market attention from this year’s production to what we will see for next year’s plantings. This is common following the January supply and demand report as production numbers will now remain constant for the rest of the marketing year. This starts to put more emphasis on new crop production and this will likely be a year with more attention than most given the high cost of inputs many farmers are facing. The initial thought is this will cause a decline in corn acres from this year to next with some analysts predicting up to 3 million fewer plantings next spring than last. While this is possible, it seems like a high estimate at this time. Many farmers report they applied much of their inputs last fall and avoided the high costs. Others claim they do not want to alter their rotations for one year. What we may see is a decline in corn acres in low production areas, but those may not impact total crop size as much as thought. The answer to these uncertainties will likely not be seen until the March 31st planting intentions report, and possibly beyond.  

Highlights
* Market focus back to SAM weather
* US still pushing China on Phase 1
* Analysts continue to lower SAM crop potential 
* US DDGs support ethanol margins
* DDGs up another $15/mt 
* US interest rates a market concern 
* US processing margins remain firm     
* Brazil commodities start to rally
* Technicals limit buying interest
* Trade closed next Monday

Corn
* Argentine crop estimates lowered
* Arg crop 40% G/E, was 58% last week
* Interior basis is softer 
* Inputs more of a market factor 
* Weekly export sales up 79%

Soybeans
* Brazil still selling old crop
* Brazil 95% sold on old crop, normal is 99% 
* New crop Brazil sales 36.5% of crop   
* China wants to increase soy production 40%  
* Weekly sales up 92%

Wheat
* Chinese buyers taking all auctioned wheat            
* Auction values average $11.57/bu
* China buying large volume of Argentine wheat
* US wheat $6/mt under Russia for spring
* Export bookings totaled 9.7 mbu
 
Livestock
* 2022 beef export sales 9,700 mt
* 2022 pork sales 19,800 mt
* China absent from buying lists 
* Mexico pork demand +33% on the year
* Retail beef up 24% in past year


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Thursday, January 13th, 2022

Yesterday’s USDA data will likely continue to be a market factor in today’s session as well. On the domestic side very few changes were made to balance sheets. Trade was more interested in the global numbers as reductions were made to Brazilian crops of 5 million metric tons on soybeans and 3 million metric tons on corn. Now that we are past this trade will monitor actual South American yields for price discovery along with ongoing weather developments. Not only will weather be a factor for the South American crops, but we are seeing more interest on North American patterns as well. Much of the Western US is still abnormally dry at this time and this extends into Canada. This is already starting to be monitored in the wheat complex but will start to be a factor in row crops as well if conditions do not change. We will also start to see more interest on the US export pace now that the South American harvest is underway as many of the US’s buyers will shift their loading sources, mainly China. If our export demand drops as much as some analysts believe it might we will likely start to see alterations to yearly exports in future balance sheets releases.  

Highlights
* Chinese Covid cases continue to spike
* Covid may restrict Lunar New Year food demand
* Trade also questioning demand for upcoming Olympics 
* US DDGs continue to rally
* DDGs up $15/mt in past week
* Global processing margins declining 
* US export line-up is thin     
* Black Sea cost of production +30% this year
* US ethanol production drops last week
* US ethanol reserves jump 1.5 million barrels

Corn
* US yield at 177 bpa
* US crop size 15.11 bbu
* US carryout 1.54 bbu 
* World carryout 303.1 mmt 
* Dec 1st stocks 11.65 bbu

Soybeans
* US yield 51.4 bpa
* US crop 4.435 bbu
* US carryout 350 mbu   
* World carryout 95.2 mmt
* Dec 1st stocks 3.15 bbu

Wheat
* Winter wheat acres 34.4 million            
* US carryout 628 mbu
* World carryout 280 mmt   
* Dec 1st stocks 1.39 bbu
* China to auction reserves today
 
Livestock
* 2022 beef production at 27.17 billion pounds
* Average steer value at $136.75/cwt
* 2022 pork production at 27.52 billion pounds 
* Average hog value at $60.25/cwt
* USDA cuts 2022 pork exports 405 million pounds


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Wednesday, January 12th, 2022

The long awaited January USDA reports will finally be released today. The most talked about of these is the monthly WASDE report, but the quarterly stocks data and the winter wheat assessment report will also be released today. The reason the WASDE report will garner more attention is that for one it contains the final US production totals on last year’s crops, and it will also give us a better indication of what the USDA is projecting for South American production losses. These two factors have the ability to alter world balance sheets for the remainder of the marketing year, and potentially into next year as well. Domestically trade is expecting to see increases to crop sizes of 16 million bu on corn and 9 million bu on soybeans. Trade is expecting slight reductions to South American crops, with more to come as the production season advances. Once this data is released, trade will revert its attention back to immediate market developments, including global weather, exports, and the world economy. We will also start to receive more accurate yield reports out of South America and these will either negate or amplify the numbers that will be released from the USDA today as well as private firms that continue to project South American crops as well.  

Highlights
* CONAB lowers Brazil crops estimates
* Livestock producers show concerns over feed costs
* Some feeders cut back on inventory 
* Importers shop for feed grain alternatives
* Feeders taking DDGs over meal
* Basis values starting to soften
* WASDE data at 11:00 AM CT     
* Quarterly stocks, wheat assessment also released
* Trade expecting neutral domestic numbers
* More interest on global figures

Corn
* US yield estimated 177.1 bpa
* US crop size est 15.08 bbu
* US carryout est 1.48 bbu 
* World carryout est 303.6 mmt 
* Dec 1st stocks est 11.6 bbu

Soybeans
* US yield est 51.3 bpa
* US crop est 4.4 bbu
* US carryout est 353 mbu   
* World carryout est 99.7 mmt
* Dec 1st stocks est 3.13 bbu

Wheat
* Winter wheat acres est 34.3 million            
* US carryout est 609 mbu
* World carryout est 278.7 mmt   
* Dec 1st stocks est 1.42 bbu
* China to auction reserves today
 
Livestock
* Feeders worried over break-evens 
* Reports of hog facilities sitting empty
* Brazil yearly poultry exports +9% 
* Daily cattle slaughter -6% from last year
* Daily hog slaughter -4.5% on the year 


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments;

Much of today’s session will be spent getting final positions in place ahead of tomorrow’s monthly supply and demand report. For the most part trade is expecting crop sizes to hold mostly steady for the US, and slight changes to demand. The most changes to corn and soybean usage are being forecast for the domestic side as ethanol grind and soy crush are both running slightly ahead of the projected pace. These are not significant amounts though, so to see the USDA wait to adjust demand until later in the marketing year would not be a surprise either. It would also not be a surprise to see more interest on the South American balance sheets than the domestic ones tomorrow. South American crops have once again been subjected to harsh weather conditions and yield loss has undoubtedly taken place. The question being heavily debated is how much yields have been trimmed and where. It seems as though most losses have been in Southern Brazil, mainly the state of Parana. Even there, production has not been a total loss. In other parts of Brazil we are hearing of quite favorable crops which may offset a portion of the southern losses. This is a factor that will be debated for the next several weeks.  

Highlights
* Covid to cause Chinese unloading delays
* Low drafts on US rivers continues
* Ukraine yearly grain exports +25.7% 
* Brazil continues to make old crop exports
* Technicals showing more market influence
* US needs to be more price competitive
* US not seeing active new crop demand     
* US supply lines remain stressed
* WASDE report tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT
* No major US production changes expected

Corn
* Corn starting to pollinate in Argentina
* Analysts lowering SAM crop forecasts
* SAM corn consumption up for 20 years 
* Buyers source alterative feed grains 
* Weekly export loadings at 40.3 mbu

Soybeans
* No Brazil yields to offset some Southern losses
* Soy oil sales remain active
* Chinese buying focused on Brazil   
* Flooding continues to disrupt Palm Oil movement
* Weekly export inspections total 33.3 mbu

Wheat
* Trade more concerned with US drought            
* Plains drought extends into Canada
* China to auction reserves tomorrow   
* Australian offers under global market
* Weekly loadings just 8.5 mbu
 
Livestock
* Demand worries pressure cattle 
* Cash trade is light
* US slaughter pace slows 
* China expected to buy for Lunar New Year
* China also buying for upcoming Olympics


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Monday, January 10th, 2022

Much of today and tomorrow’s sessions will be spent getting positions in place for the January USDA data release on Wednesday. Several reports will be released Wednesday, including the monthly WASDE report, the quarterly stocks inventory, and the winter wheat crop assessment. The WASDE report is getting the most attention of these as it will contain the final production numbers for last year’s crops. From this point forward the USDA will update demand on a monthly basis and leave production unchanged. This does not necessarily mean we will not see last year’s crops altered in the future, but not on a monthly schedule. We will continue to see alterations to the South American crops though, and these will take the majority of trade’s attention until May when we get the initial domestic new crop balance sheets from the USDA. As for quarterly stocks trade is expecting to see larger inventories of corn and soybeans than a year ago on December 1st, but less wheat. These numbers may be a little misleading though, as even with larger corn and soybean reserves, we may still need rationing given projected demand. The wheat numbers will likely receive the least attention, although this is the inventory the US and the world is seeing drop the fastest.

Highlights
* Weather continues to hamper US logistics
* Labor also a transit issue
* China starting to prepare for Lunar New Year
* China also getting ready for Olympics
* Omicron impact uncertainty continues
* US ethanol margins from 30 to 50 cents
* Corn/Soy ratio still favors corn     
* Producers to reconsider input usage
* WASDE report on Wednesday 
* Quarterly stocks, wheat assessment also on Wed

Corn
* Analysts trim SAM corn crop 2-3 mmt
* SAM production still larger than last year 
* Brazil yield est 89 bpa 
* Argentine yield est 122.8 bpa
* Ethanol demand to grow 

Soybeans
* Parana crop may be smallest in 11 years
* Brazil old crop exports underestimated
* US exports forecast to increase   
* Brazil yield est 50.6 bpa
* Argentine yield est 38 bpa  

Wheat
* EU likely to ration inventory            
* US exports remain slow
* No American drought a concern   
* Ukraine predicts smaller 2022 crop
* Weather, inputs to trim Ukraine plantings
 
Livestock
* Wholesale beef is firming 
* Slaughter delays a worry
* Delays likely to increase weights 
* Pork cutout showing strength
* Average base hog values +$5.14 last week


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Friday, January 7th, 2022

More interest is staring to be placed on US country movement of commodity inventories. US farmers have been more active on their sales in recent weeks which is not surprising given the elevated futures we have received. This has been sporadic though, and not the same across the entire country. Some regions are seeing very heavy movement while others have seen waves of selling when the market rallies. This has created as much volatility in basis values as it has in the futures market. The question in the market now is when the next big flush of farm stored inventory will take place. Now that we are past the first of the year many cash buyers are expecting a wave of country movement, but that may not be the case. Farmers were active sellers leading into year end and have liquidated as much as they need for now. Many are now waiting to see if the current futures rally is extended before adding to their sales. Another factor that will greatly impact country movement is the large volume of deferred incomes that farmers are now collecting. This may deter selling regardless of market activity over the next several weeks.  

Highlights
* World food values decline in December
* Food values up 21% in 2021
* Weather hampers Us logistics
* Rail movement to PNW most affected
* US rivers starting to ice over
* Inputs becoming hard to find
* Global oilseed supplies shrinking     
* SAM weather interest shifts to Argentina
* Hints of “food vs fuel” debate re-emerging 
* Country movement slowing

Corn
* Weekly exports at 10 mbu
* Ethanol margins remain strong 
* Ethanol usage counters slow exports 
* November exports totaled 182 mbu
* US yearly loadings 6% behind expectations 

Soybeans
* Weekly export sales MY low at 14.06 mbu
* US soy oil reserves building
* SAM soy production still larger than last year   
* November exports totaled 391 mbu
* Yearly loadings -12% from expectations  

Wheat
* Weekly sales yearly low at 1.78 mbu            
* Yearly loadings -5% from expected pace
* November exports totaled 52 mbu   
* Much of No America wheat in drought
* World milling supply tightens
 
Livestock
* 2022 beef sales at 11,800 metric ton
* 2022 pork sales totaled 18,600 metric tons
* Minimal Chinese business noted 
* Census Nov beef exports at 298 million pounds
* Census Nov pork exports at 580 million pounds


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Thursday, January 6th, 2022

One of the biggest debates in the market right now is what impact recent weather has had on South American crop production, especially in Southern Brazil. Parts of Southern Brazil experienced the driest December in the past 42 years and there is little doubt as least some yield loss has taken place. History has shown that there is a wide range of production loss in comparable years. In some drought years the losses in Southern Brazil have totaled 8 million metric tons of soybeans, while in others it has been as much as 15 million metric tons. Either way, it would greatly impact Brazil’s production outlook. Soybean production has also been lost in other countries, mainly Paraguay. At the same time we are seeing elevated production possibilities for other parts of Brazil where precipitation has been abundant. The question now is how much these two may offset each other for a total crop size. The average trade guess on Brazil’s soybean crop is coming in at 140 million metric tons. While this is well below the initial crop estimates we received, it would still be record large and extend Brazil’s export ability which is already pressuring the United States.

Highlights
* Feed margins negative in China
* More state of emergencies declared in Brazil
* Most concern in southern states
* US export business mostly routine
* Dollar rally limits export interest
* Importers focused on SAM, Black Sea
* Market volume starting to build     
* China likely underbought on needs
* Trade now focused on WASDE 
* CONAB data expected tomorrow  

Corn
* Ukraine exports 1/3 of yearly estimates
* SAM crops estimate lowered
* Some analysts cut SAM corn 6-9 mmt 
* Canadian imports to reach 5 mmt
* Canadian import estimate 2x last year

Soybeans
* Argentina lowers crop rating
* US exports remain quiet
* Brazil crop estimates highly variable   
* Some estimates down 10 mmt from initial
* Biodiesel demand is rising  

Wheat
* World wheat production short of demand            
* Russian export tax approaching $100/mt   
* Argentine harvest nearly complete      
* Argentine crop may top 21.5 mmt
* Food inflation supports global values
 
Livestock
* Daily cattle slaughter +24.5% on the year  
* Daily hog slaughter +10.7% from last year
* Chinese hog values rising
* Chinese sow herd +4.7% from last year
* US pork exports -6% on the year


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Wednesday, January 5th, 2022

We are now one week from the long-awaited January WASDE report. This release will give us the final yield data for the 2020/21 crop year. For the most part trade is expecting to see very few changes to the production figures that were released in November. Trade will be more focused on demand to see if any alterations are made there. US exports have been solid on corn and soybeans which may prevent any slippage on that use. Wheat sales have been less than hoped for though and to see a decrease in yearly projections would not come as a surprise. We will also receive the quarterly stocks data as of December 1st and these will be closely monitored as well. Add to this the first official opinion of the US winter wheat crop and there will be something in next weeks data for everyone. The real attention may be placed on the global side though, mainly South America. Drought continues to impact Southern Brazil and Argentina and several privates have started to shave their production numbers. The USDA may be slow to adjust theirs though, at least until we see how much crop damage has really taken place.  

Highlights
* Harvest progressing in Brazil 
* Brazil harvest 20 days ahead of normal
* Lower crop ratings reported in Argentina
* Corn 58% G/E, was 90% in early Dec
* Early yields in Brazil highly variable
* US farmers expected to scale back on inputs
* US stocks to use to remain tight     
* Covid disrupting global travel/trade
* Funds add to commodity longs
* One week from WASDE, stocks reports  

Corn
* Ethanol production to keep rising
* US ethanol stocks -12% from last year
* Ethanol reserves lowest since 2016 
* China has 10.1 mmt unshipped US purchases
* Brazil Dec exports at 3.4 mmt

Soybeans
* Record high canola futures in Canada
* Canola $3.20 above soybeans
* Oil content in Brazil soy monitored   
* Some analysts believe rains lowered oil
* Dec Brazil exports at 2.7 mmt

Wheat
* China to auction wheat today            
* Wheat auction will be milling quality   
* Buyers shifting away from Black Sea      
* EU likely to deplete reserves
* Taxes not slowing Russian exports
 
Livestock
* Retail market supports futures  
* Inflation still a market concern
* Hog futures $12.00 over cash
* China has 121,000 mt unshipped pork purchases
* China 2021 beef purchases a record 152,000 mt


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Tuesday, January 4th, 2022

Early harvest activity is taking place in Brazil. This is on both soybeans and corn. As this is just getting underway, very little yield data has been released. It will take a few weeks for enough progress to be made to start receiving accurate data, but even then, it may not give us a better indication of total crop sizes. What trade may focus on more than this start of harvest is if farmers are quick to double crop their fields. Harvest is starting in regions where weather and soil conditions are more favorable and a high volume of double cropping is expected. This is why many analysts are hesitant to lower their Brazilian corn crop estimates, including the USDA. Brazilian farmers even opted to plant more soybeans and rely on the Safrinha crop for corn needs this year which may increase the number of acres that are double cropped. While weather will play a significant factor in actual acreage, inputs will be a factor as well. Fertilizer values have rallied in South America, same as they have in the rest of the world, and to see farmers cut back on usage would not be a surprise. This may affect corn production even with elevated double cropping.  

Highlights
* Country movement expected to increase 
* Technicals driving commodity trade
* Outside market influence growing
* Dollar values impacting export trade
* Inflation worries may limit exports
* South American harvest advancing     
* Drought in PNW starting to fade
* More reports of quality issues in Brazil
* Economists predict lower market volatility in 2022   
* Domestic consumption remains very high

Corn
* November corn for ethanol at 469 mbu
* US export potential questioned
* Lack of Chinese demand may bring others to US 
* SAM production estimates remain high
* Analysts predict 2 mil fewer US acres   

Soybeans
* November soybean crush at 190 mbu
* Rains may slow SAM harvest
* China buying has slowed   
* US carryout likely to decline
* Crush margins expected to remain high

Wheat
* Export demand remains slow            
* Ukraine remains dry   
* Replants may be needed in Ukraine      
* Seasonals do not support wheat
* Buyers pass high priced offers
 
Livestock
* Buyers expected to surface in cattle  
* Seasonals favor high values
* Trade concerned with low hog numbers
* Livestock liquidation is impact supplies
* Slaughter expected to increase


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Monday, January 3rd, 2022

Today’s trade starts not just a new month, but a new quarter and a new calendar year. This will likely bring elevated volatility and money flow into the market. Now that the calendar has flipped to January, we will also see some shifts in the fundamental interest of the market. For one trade will be closely monitoring the advancing South American soybean harvest. A little harvest has taken place already but not enough to determine crop size by any means. Trade will also be heavily invested in South American weather as some of the South American crops move into their advanced developed stages. Any indication of hot, dry conditions persisting and we will see additional risk premium added to futures. We will also start to see more positioning in  the market this week ahead   of the monthly WASDE report that will be released on the 12th. Not only will this give us our final production figures from the 2020/21 crop year, but the quarterly stocks data as well. Most interest will likely fall on the global numbers to see if reductions are made to South American crops given recent stressful conditions. While trade volume will start to increase this week, we may not see a decrease in volatility given these factors.  

Highlights
* US holiday spending +8.5% from 2020 
* Rains may slow Brazilian harvest 
* Economists predict tighter farm margins
* Global markets need risk premium
* Localized price rationing may be needed        
* World food inflation keeps rising     
* Fresh news remains sparse
* New year positioning expected
* Trade to start preparing for Jan WASDE   
* Trade awaiting stocks, wheat assessment

Corn
* China to stockpile corn
* China wants to hold 69% of world corn supply
* Brazil crop est lowered 1-2 mmt
* Brazil crop still +27 mmt year ago
* Ethanol crush data after the close   

Soybeans
* US soy oil demand expected to build    
* China govt pushing soybean production   
* Analysts lower Brazil crop 2 mmt   
* Brazil crop still larger than last year
* Fats and Oils report after close

Wheat
* China wants to store 50% of global stocks            
* Global wheat market corrects   
* US wheat still highest in world mkt     
* US wheat $40/mt over Russia             
* US Plains see precip
 
Livestock
* US pork supply to tighten  
* Cash cattle trade to increase
* Consumer demand not slowing
* Retail markets support futures
* Chinese hog values continue to soften


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Friday, December 31st, 2021

Final year end positioning will be the driving factor in today’s session. Many traders have already shorn up their positions ahead of this, but a few will remain. Given the low volume that is being seen in commodity trade this will likely cause over-exaggerated moves in futures. We may also see elevated movement in the cash market today as farmers make last minute sales to try and even up cash flow for tax purposes. Once we get through today and into the new year, we will start to see a change in market interest and attitude. For one we will start to see elevated positioning for the supply and demand figures that will be updated on January 12th. This is a heavily monitored release as it contains final old crop production figures. The quarterly stocks figures as of December 1st will also be released on that date. Another change that comes in January is that more attention will be placed on South American weather. While weather in South America has been less than ideal for the past several weeks, now is when trade starts to see more of its impact on crops, and more adjustments may be made to production. We will also start to see early soybean harvest out of Brazil and get a better indication of actual crop size.  

Highlights
* Final trading session of the year 
* Trade trying to determine La Nina impact 
* Food inflation pushes imports
* Phase 1 trade agreement ends today
* US/China relations remain strained        
* Managed money influence grows     
* Ukraine weather turns dry
* SAM vessels line-up increasing
* Brazil rust cases lowest in 16 years  
* Today is FND on Jan contracts

Corn
* Weekly sales +27% at 49.07 mbu
* Corn starting to rally in Brazil
* 1st corn harvest underway
* Brazil corn highest since August
* SAM carryout to be lowest since 2011   

Soybeans
* Weekly export sales yearly low at 19.25 mbu    
* Meal sales +4% from last year   
* Meal demand at 3 month high   
* Rally in DDGs favors meal use
* Harvest progressing in Brazil

Wheat
* Weekly sales -89% at 7.03 mbu            
* China to start buying from Russia   
* US Plains see precip     
* Drought a worry in Canada             
* Russian exports -17% on the year
 
Livestock
* Chinese hog values weaken  
* 2021 beef sales -48% at 6,300 mt
* 2021 pork sales -89% at 3,200 mt
* 2022 sales at 6,000 mt beef, 35,900 mt on pork
* China leading buyer of 2022 pork


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Thursday, December 30th, 2021

While attention on it comes and goes, the US acreage debate remains a primary topic in today’s trade. Analysts have started to lower their corn acreage estimates and increase their soybean and wheat planting projections. The unknown, and what keeps changing, is how much of a difference is being predicted from last year. At first it was thought corn acres would decrease by a considerable amount this year, but some analysts have started to lower their loss estimates. This is from the amount of fall applied fertilizer that was sold and current corn seed sales. Any significant loss in corn acres this year will likely be confined to fringe areas where production has struggled in the past few years anyway. One factor that could impact US plantings more than anything this coming spring is financing. The high input costs are starting to eat into some producers’ operating loans, and this may affect what they can spend on other needs. A few reports from across the Corn Belt indicate some farmers may be forced to reconsider their intended acreage as a result. Others claim they simply cannot be assured they will receive corn inputs at any cost and may need to adjust plantings as a result.

Highlights
* Domestic processing remains profitable 
* High temps a concern in Argentina 
* Argentina may hold export taxes unchanged
* Country sales are up
* Interior basis softening        
* Matto Grasso Nov/Dec wettest in 42 years     
* Rains may be causing quality loss
* So Brazil driest in 40 years
* China to become more self-sufficient  
* January contract FND is tomorrow

Corn
* Brazil Dec exports at 3.9 mmt
* Argentine exports rising
* EU yearly imports -20% 
* Higher US feed demand expected
* Export loading total rising   

Soybeans
* Global oilseed plantings to rise    
* Global oilseed market softening   
* Brazil crop record despite losses   
* Demand for US meal rising
* US to expand crush capacity

Wheat
* Feed demand rising           
* China buying large volumes of feed wheat   
* US exports remain slow     
* Global values soften             
* Seasonals turn weaker for wheat 
 
Livestock
* Cash trade not surfacing 
* Managed money exits cattle    
* Wholesale beef working higher        
* Managed money adds hog longs  
* Average base hog values $59.75  


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Wednesday, December 29th, 2021

We are starting to see a difference in opinion form when it comes to US commodity demand and what it means for balance sheets. Export demand has been sporadic this year with buyers surfacing on breaks but then retreating once futures rally. This is not uncommon, but the volume of purchases seen on breaks this year has been larger than in most. At the present time the United States has cumulative export bookings of 1.55 billion bu on corn, 1.5 billion bu on soybeans, and 574 million bu on wheat. These are all down from last year, but at least for corn, commitments are running ahead of where we were expected to be. Soybean sales are depressed but quickly gaining. The only real concern is the slow demand we have seen on wheat, but at this point, the US cannot afford to export much more wheat given our shrinking stocks to use on that grain. Domestic demand has helped compensate for these lower exports though as both soy crush and ethanol usage are at the top end of expectations. We are also seeing elevated feed demand as exports of beef and pork remain quite high. Given all of these alterations to usage it is making it more complicated when trying to predict ending stocks.  

Highlights
* Ukraine food inflation at 10% 
* Political tensions limit US/China trade 
* Privates trim SAM yields        
* Argentine crop stage limiting water use
* US per acre fertilizer cost highest since 2015        
* Average fertilizer cost $128.00/acre     
* Some models indicate much higher fertilizer cost      
* Northern Brazil remains wet
* Country movement is rising 
* Barge freight working higher

Corn
* China has 10.5 mmt of US purchases
* Trade optimistic on Safrinha potential       
* Private analysts 6 mmt under total Brazil crop forecast
* Processing margins remain positive
* Ethanol margin near 60 cents/gal   

Soybeans
* Ukraine sun oil at 3 month low    
* India to raise veg oil imports  
* Products support soy complex   
* Meal basis $35 above 5 year ave
* US crush margin average $2.00/bu       

Wheat
* Global wheat plantings to rise           
* Ukraine yearly grain exports +21.6%   
* Buyers surface for US milling wheat     
* Trade focused on winter wheat acres            
* Winter wheat prospects released Jan 12th 
 
Livestock
* Very thin cash trade 
* YTD beef sales at 893,500 mt    
* Beef exports remain record high        
* Chinese demand is 17% of total  
* YTD pork exports at 1.735 mmt  


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Tuesday, December 28th, 2021

Even with less than ideal weather conditions in parts of Brazil, field scouts are hesitant to alter their crop estimates by a significant amount. Most analysts are still predicting a soybean crop from 142 million metric tons to 147 million metric tons. While this is down roughly 2 million metric tons from previous ranges it is still well above the 137 million metric tons of soybeans the country grew last year. Brazil is still exporting those soybeans and any increase in crop size will only extend to country’s ability to provide soybeans next year. The same scenario is taking place in Brazil’s corn crop estimates. Most crop projections fall between 114 million metric tons and 118 million metric tons. Even at the low end of this range the corn crop would be nearly 30 million metric tons larger than a year ago. The market has added risk premium due to current weather conditions in South America, but we will likely need to see crop sizes drop below last year for a significant increase in speculative type buying. These same patterns are being seen in Argentina where some yield loss is likely but at this time it is very hard to quantify. The greatest losses are currently being reported in Paraguay and these will be closely watched.  

Highlights
* Energy markets impacting commodities
* Global energy values higher 
* All eyes on SAM weather        
* Dry SAM conditions also impacting logistics
* South American exports may be affected        
* More importers lower tariffs     
* Most declines are for food products      
* Labor issues impact supply lines
* No shortened sessions this week
* FND on Jan contracts is Friday  

Corn
* Argentine planting progresses
* Argentine crop just 60% planted      
* Corn planted after Jan 10th sees yield drag
* Ukraine crop a record 39.8 mmt
* Chinese corn at $10.60/bu  

Soybeans
* US crush margins remain strong    
* Most US margins above $2.00  
* PNW exports decline   
* Brazil to increase biodiesel blending   
* Chinese soy at $17.90/bu      

Wheat
* Russian 2022 wheat crop est 81.3 mmt           
* Russian crop estimate is rising  
* Ukraine pegs 21/22 production at 32.7 mmt    
* Ukraine production +29.4%           
* Analysts questioning US acres     
 
Livestock
* Boxed beef stabilizes 
* Slaughter numbers in line with last year    
* ASF cuts German hog farms by 7.8%        
* German hog numbers a 25 year low 
* US red meat supply -4% on the year  


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Monday, December 27th, 2021

To see very thin trade volume in the markets this week would not come as a surprise. We are between the Christmas and New Year’s holidays and trade volume will be very thin. One benefit for trade this week compared to last week is that we will have a full five days of markets as trade does not take time off for New Year’s. Much of this week’s attention will be focused on moving remaining positions out to the deferred contracts ahead of month, quarter, and year end. This will be more of a factor on soybeans as that contract will go into delivery this Friday. While many traders have already repositioned themselves there are always a few remaining contracts, and these can cause wide swings in futures. While this positioning will drive this week’s trade, we will also start to see trade prepare for next year. The main factors that trade will center on when we get past the holiday season is the approaching South America harvest, global weather, and we will start to see positioning for the January WASDE release on the 12th.  

Highlights
* Argentine crops remain highly rated 
* 90% of Argentina reports adequate soil moisture        
* Feed product shortage continues
* US milk production declines        
* US dairy herd -47,000 head from last year     
* Commodities outperform in 2021      
* Full trade this week
* FND on Jan contracts is Friday
* Year end positioning to drive futures
* Starting to see positioning for Jan WASDE  

Corn
* Export market very quiet
* Ukraine crop +42% on the year      
* US processors extend coverage
* World grain supply is adequate   
* Argentine export limits not affecting market  

Soybeans
* Paraguay yield est lowered 20%    
* SAM yield estimates vary  
* Total SAM production up from last year   
* Seasonals support soy values   
* Domestic crush margins remain strong    

  

Wheat
* Buyers lock in Australian offers           
* Russian milling offers slip lower       
* Yearly Russian exports -16%    
* Ukraine crop +29% on the year          
* Ukraine yearly exports +26%    
 
Livestock
* December 1st COF 100% 
* Nov placements 104%    
* Nov marketings 105%       
* Dec 1st hog/pig inventory 96% year ago 
* Market hogs -4.4%


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Thursday, December 23rd, 2021

Market volume is expected to be even lighter today than is has been for the past week as more traders exit ahead of tomorrow’s Christmas Holiday. We will trade normal hours today, and then the markets will be closed until Sunday night. Many traders have already shored up their positions in anticipation of this, but there will still be some who look at thin volume as a buying or selling opportunity. The question in the market now is when we might see a return of normal trade flow, and this may be a few weeks away. The main focus on next week’s trade will be evening out final yearend positions, although much of this has already been completed as well. The January WASDE report will be released on the 12th, and some traders may simply wait until then before actively putting on new positions. This is especially the case with the quarterly stocks numbers being released on that day as well. This market environment can generate wide price swings and cash marketing opportunities as well.  

Highlights
* Importers show little interest in US offers 
* Risk premium being added to futures        
* Uncertain SAM production may shift buying
* Warm temps slow US river icing        
* Country movement has increased     
* Global economy is slowing      
* Favorable export data expected today
* Jan options expire today
* Markets closed tomorrow for Christmas
* Trade resumes Sunday night at 7:00 CT  

Corn
* Analysts raise EU crop estimate 
* Ukraine harvest a record 40 mmt      
* Ukraine values soften
* Chinese imports 300% of last year   
* More risk premium added  

Soybeans
* Brazil still exporting old crop   
* Privates have Brazil crop above USDA 
* Export premiums start to weaken   
* Global oilseed market softens   
* Russia may tax exports    

Wheat
* Buyers continues to pass on US offers           
* China sourcing coverage from France       
* Drought in US Plains worsens   
* Parts of Plains drier than last year          
* Technicals limit wheat gains   
 
Livestock
* December COF after close
* Dec 1st COF est 100% year ago
* Nov placements at 103.4%     
* Nov marketings at 104.4%     
* Dec 1st hog/pig inventory est at 97.2%     

 
RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Wednesday, December 22nd, 2021

Trade continues to receive mixed reports on South American weather and what it means for crop production. The area of most interest remains on Southern Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina, same as it did last year. This is not uncommon as this is the area of South America that is most heavily impacted by a La Nina weather event. Rains have been limited in this region for the past several weeks and this is generating ideas of lost production. While this is happening in some areas, the question is how widespread losses may be. This is a heavily debated topic in the market at the present time. Some field scouts claim heavy losses have developed and crops sizes will be lowered in future estimates. Others are not seeing these losses, and claim that while stressed, early precipitation and adequate soil moisture to start the growing season will temper any losses. We have heard reports of replants being done in Southern Brazil, but again this does not seem to be widespread at this time. Reports are just as conflicting in Argentina where some field scouts have raised their crop estimates, mainly on corn. These conflicting reports are adding volatility to an already unsteady market. 

Highlights
* Drought expands in So Brazil 
* Central/North Brazil well watered        
* Heat now building in SAM  
* Barge freight starting to firm       
* Empty barges starting to move north     
* 20 day delay reported at Panama Canal     
* Canal delays limit US Gulf interest
* Russia raises interest rates   
* Global energy values remain high
* Rebound in ethanol production expected

Corn
* Some analysts lower Brazil production 
* Losses in Brazil at 1-2 mmt      
* Mexico/Canada increase US purchases
* China booking alternatives to corn   
* EU raises crop estimate  

Soybeans
* Brazil crop est range from 140 to 147 mmt   
* Conditions deteriorate in So Brazil
* Production trimmed 5% in RGDS  
* Importers focused on SAM offers  
* World veg oils correct    

Wheat
* Argentina crop estimates rising           
* Arg crop now 22 mmt vs 21 mmt last week      
* Drought in US Plains worsens   
* US plantings may be less than thought          
* Importers pass on US offers   
 
Livestock
* No cash trade reported
* Slaughter numbers hold steady 
* Chinese pork demand slowing    
* Pork cut outs soften    
* Wholesale beef is mixed  

   
RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Tuesday, December 21st, 2021

We are starting to see some notable changes take place in global commodity trade. Historically exports and imports have been heavily based on commodity value. In recent years we have started to see other factors have pricing influences as well, and lately these have actually become more predominant. One of these is timely shipments. In recent months we have seen buyers secure coverage from sources where they know deliveries will take place, even if the commodity value itself is higher. Freight rates on a whole have also had more of a role in trade as buyers have started to opt for sources with the lowest freight rates, especially given recent port issues around the world. What may be the main topic that is rising in the marketplace is commodity quality. Importers are actually paying slight premiums to secure needs from sources they know will have high quality product. This has been most notable this year in the grains, especially wheat. For example, Australia produced another record sized wheat crop this year, but the quality is questionable, causing some buyers to secure coverage elsewhere. We have also witnessed this in corn with some buyers passing on US offers, claiming this year’s crop contains high volumes of broken kernels and foreign material.

Highlights
* Idled ethanol plants re-starting 
* Domestic production likely underestimated        
* Feed demand rising in China 
* Futures need more risk premium       
* Global interest rates rising    
* Argentina to lower export takes on GMO crops    
* US becoming more competitive in global market       
* Trade volume becoming very thin  
* Jan options expire this Thursday
* FND on Jan contracts is next Friday

Corn
* Chinese corn market rallying 
* Rumors of China shopping for corn      
* Analysts raising Ukraine crop estimate
* Feed use likely underestimated  
* Some predict US carryout of 1 bbu  

Soybeans
* Wheat feeding to limit protein needs   
* US soy oil values under SAM  
* US soy oil yield declining 
* Soy products are top-heavy  
* Argentine farm sales on the rise    

Wheat
* Russian exports to decline          
* Black Sea exports drive global market     
* Milling wheat values soften  
* EU raises export forecast         
* Fund short on wheat largest since July  
 
Livestock
* Chinese Nov pork imports at 200,000 mt
* Nov pork imports -38.7% from Nov 2020
* China Nov beef imports at 180,000 mt   
* Nov beef imports +7.5% from Nov 2020    
* YTD Chinese pork imports +10.3%, beef imports +11.4%     


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Monday, December 20th, 2021

In many years this is one of the lowest for trade volume of the entire year. This is because of the Christmas Holiday and how many traders take the entire week off. Trade will be shortened this week with all markets being closed on Friday. In fact, several traders exited the market following the December supply and demand report and will not return to the market until early January, with some taking the entire time span off between now and the January WASDE report. Not only does the January release contain the usual supply and demand numbers, but the final production figures for the current marketing year. The quarterly stocks figures as of December 1st will also be released with the January WASDE numbers. Between now and then it is not uncommon to have a void of fresh fundamental information to work with. We are between the US and South American harvest, and while weather is always a factor for the markets, it will have more of an impact as we move into January. This is when we will have a better idea if the La Nina will build and become an issue like last year. It is not uncommon to see trade focus on the outside markets at this time, as well as technical indicators.  

Highlights
* Import buyers focused on quality 
* Southern Brazil needs rain this week        
* High freight rates impacting global trade 
* US barge availability is low      
* World biofuel demand rising   
* US rivers starting to ice over    
* Fertilizer supplies dwindling       
* Input availability more of a worry than cost 
* UK inflation highest in a decade
* Trade closed this Friday

Corn
* Corn +3 ¼ last week
* Corn rallies in Brazil     
* Some SAM replants will be needed
* EU corn imports -29% this year  
* Argentine officials hold crop at 57 mmt 

Soybeans
* Soybeans +17 ½ last week  
* Products values driving futures 
* Soy oil “fair value” debated      
* Interior markets stronger than exports 
* US meal competitive in global market  

Wheat
* Wheat +10 ¼ last week         
* Feed demand rapidly rising     
* Argentine crop upped to 21 mmt 
* Buyers pass on US wheat        
* Russia likely to lower export quota 
 
Livestock
* Very light cash trade this week
* Trade focused on post-holiday demand
* Packers buying in future needs  
* China rolling 2021 pork purchases to 2022    
* Mexico continues to lead buying   


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Friday, December 17th, 2021

We will likely see an increase in market volatility in today’s session. Many traders will shore up positions today and remain absent from the market until we get past the Holiday season. As stated, this will create low volume and high volatility in the market. This has already started and will be elevated as we move into year end. The high volume of managed money in the commodity market will elevate this position squaring and likely add to market volatility. The question in the market now is when this volatility may subside. To see it last through the January WASDE report would not come as a surprise. There is also the possibility that volatility will continue to build, especially if adverse weather starts to impact South America more than it already has. We have already started to see an elevated amount of risk premium in the futures market from the possibility of another strong La Nina and the potential for crop loss as a result. If conditions in South America start to deteriorate, the volume of risk premium will increase as it does. Bottom line is we may just be seeing the start of another high-volatile stretch in the markets.

Highlights
* US continues to see logistic issues 
* Transit issues weigh on export market       
* Export basis is softer 
* Country movement slows     
* Colder US temperatures forecast   
* Few yearly sales cancellations expected    
* Worries build over ag economics      
* Technicals having more of a market influence 
* IEA lowers global crude demand for 2022
* Covid worries impacting energy demand

Corn
* Argentine officials raise crop estimate
* Feb/March weather critical for Argentine crop     
* Some privates lower Brazil crop estimate
* Brazil crop still 30 mmt larger than last year  
* Export demand is slowing 

Soybeans
* Chinese demand has slowed  
* Argentine crop still favorable 
* Brazil farm sales -20% from last year      
* Countries again limiting GMO imports 
* Export demand sluggish  

Wheat
* US wheat belt sees precip        
* Managed money interest in wheat is minimal     
* Russia to further limit future exports
* EU, India lower crop estimates       
* China rumored to be shopping for milling wheat 
 
Livestock
* 2021 beef sales 17,700 mt
* 2021 pork sales 31,300 mt
* 2022 beef/pork sales increasing 
* Seasonal low expected in hogs    
* Packer demand to ease into Holiday’s   


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Thursday, December 16th, 2021

Debate is increasing over next year’s potential plantings in the United States. Total US planted acres for the 2021/22 marketing year were 93.3 million on corn, 87.2 million on soybeans, and 46.7 million for wheat. Given recent market developments, mainly the increase in inputs costs, many believe these plantings will change for the 2022/23 marketing year. While this is possible, the volume of acre shifting may be less than expected. For one, most farmers are unwilling to alter their crop rotations for one year. If a farmer would cut back on corn acres due to high input costs this may impact their rotations for the next several years. Most farmers are also unwilling to plant soybeans on the same field two years in a row. Demand is also a major factor in crop rotation as farmers tend to plant crops that align with their main delivery points. We also have to consider that many farmers already have their inputs locked in and a large volume was applied this fall, making any shifting less likely. What we could see is farmers focus their attention on their highest yielding acres and shift their marginal ground. This is more likely to happen in the fringe areas of the Corn Belt.  

Highlights
* Brage draft restrictions in place 
* China expected to import US DDGs       
* Brazil farmers cutting back on input use 
* EU inflation outpacing the US     
* Global currency values become unstable   
* Ukraine grain exports +21% this year    
* Import buyers surface on breaks      
* Weekly ethanol production short of expectations
* US ethanol stocks rising
* Jan options expire next Thursday    

Corn
* Interior basis stronger than gulf        
* Ethanol driving interior basis    
* China continues to buy from Ukraine 
* Larger Ukraine crop expected  
* Weather remains favorable for SAM corn           

Soybeans
* Nov NOPA crush at 179.46 mbu  
* Nov crush 7th highest ever
* Chinese crush is slowing      
* Fertilizer use in Brazil to decline 
* Global market following SAM values  

Wheat
* Dry weather favors SAM harvest       
* Ukraine exports at 15 mmt   
* Russian exports -37.5% on the year
* High-protein wheat +$3.00/mt in past week      
* Russia raises 2021 crop estimate             
 
Livestock
* YTD cattle slaughter at 31.5 million head    
* Cattle slaughter +2.9% from 2020
* YTD hog slaughter at 121.6 million    
* Hog slaughter -2.2% from 2020   
* Heavy weights offset lower hog slaughter  


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Wednesday, December 15th, 2021

We are starting to see a shift in market focus from what is happening in the United States to what is going on with South American crops. Weather reports out of South America remain mixed, mainly the long-range outlooks. Current conditions in South America are quite favorable, especially in northern and central Brazil. Southern Brazil is drier, but even there field scouts claim the crops have enough moisture to start developing. The same reports are coming out of Argentina. The question is how far along the crops can get before the current La Nina strengthens, if in fact it does. Analysts are already starting to make predictions on how much production may be lost if the La Nina event is as strong as last years. This is especially the case on corn. A few models indicate between 2 and 3 million metric tons of corn production may be lost in Brazil if the La Nina intensifies. If accurate, Brazil’s crop would still be considerably larger than last year’s though, and still be a record. The real question is what crop loss may take place in Argentina as that country suffers the greatest losses in these events.  

Highlights
* Chinese crude oil demand slowing 
* World inflation growing      
* Omicron reactions are mixed 
* Deforestation costs Brazil export business    
* Global commodity consumption all-time high  
* Biodiesel values soften   
* Ethanol values also weaker     
* Ethanol still above gasoline   
* DDG values start to rally 
* So Brazil turning dry  

Corn
* Non-traditional buyers surface       
* Argentina under cutting US   
* Buyers taking Argentine offers for late winter 
* Average cash corn highest in 3 months  
* Competition from feed wheat increasing          

Soybeans
* NOPA crush est 181.6 mbu  
* USDA lowers China’s crop estimate 
* China likely to increase imports     
* Total US commitments -27% from last year       
* Brazil still making old crop exports

Wheat
* Black Sea political tensions rise      
* Argentine crop estimate rising  
* Russia to raise export tax today           
* US export pace slows     
* China booking Australian feed wheat             
 
Livestock
* Cash markets drive futures    
* Markets focused on post-holiday demand  
* Chinese hog values -12% in past 2 weeks   
* Hog values in China -43% in past year   
* Wholesale beef stabilizes 

 
RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Tuesday, December 14th, 2021

Trade will now start focusing on upcoming events and trying to determine which ones might impact commodity market direction. The next pertinent release of data will be the January WASDE report which is almost a month away. The January WASDE report is one of most anticipated of the year as it will give us our final production numbers for the 2021/22 marketing year. From this point forward we will only see adjustment to the demand side of the balance sheets. Given the timing of this report, many traders may exit the markets this week and not return until the January data is released. For the rest of this week we will start to see elevated positioning ahead of month, quarter, and year end. As this takes place many traders will exit the market until the January numbers are released. From now until then fundamental news may be light, which will put more emphasis on the outside markets and technicals for price direction. Two of the main focal points as this take place will be South American weather and crop production. We will also see more attention on the outside markets for price discovery as managed money flow will increase over the next few weeks as well.  

Highlights
* Input issues not impacting acreage yet 
* Managed money flow increasing     
* Country movement down globally 
* Shipping logistics improving    
* Geopolitical issues escalating  
* US export demand underestimated  
* Bargain buyers pass on US offers     
* Low water hampers barge movement  
* Trade focused on 1st quarter commodity usage
* 1st quarter usage usually highest of the year  

Corn
* Larger crop predicted in Brazil       
* More acres planted in Brazil  
* Ethanol demand estimate too low 
* Yearly sales -7.8% from last year  
* USDA predicting 9% decrease in sales         

Soybeans
* US soy oil over-valued 
* Chinese soy demand building 
* Higher crush demand expected     
* Yearly sales -515 mbu from last year      
* Soy sales still at 5 year pace

Wheat
* Argentine crop estimates rising     
* Chinese wheat inventory questioned 
* Feeders may revert to wheat          
* Australian exports increasing    
* US demand estimates too high            
 
Livestock
* US beef production building   
* 2022 beef output underestimated 
* Cash cattle holding at $140   
* Cash hogs holding near $61.00  
* Retail demand holding strong


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Monday, December 13th, 2021

Now that the December WASDE report is well behind us, we will start to see more positioning for month, quarter, and year end. This week is the last full week prior to the holiday season taking place. Trade will be shortened next week with the markets being closed on December 24th. There is a full week of trade the following week, but the trade volume will be lowered considerably. This means most traders will shore up positions later this week and many will be absent until early 2022. Some traders may wish to remain on the sidelines until the January crop report is released and will re-establish positions then. Not only will this thin trade volume impact trade and elevating volatility, but so is mixed weather reports out of South America. Recent conditions have been near perfect, but outlook models continue to point towards stressful conditions developing. Trade has been seeing these outlooks for several weeks though and is now at the point it wants to see crop damage before altering its stance. What is soon to receive more attention in South America is the start of the soybean harvest season and actual yield data. This is also likely to bring an end to the bulk of US soybean exports.

Highlights
* US ethanol exports rising 
* Favorable ethanol returns push production   
* Yearly US ethanol exports still -18% 
* Brazil crop production to hit 300 mmt in near future   
* Total Brazil production 289 mmt this year 
* Brazil crops in 2022 +14% from 2021  
* SAM weather more of a focal point in markets    
* Country movement remains slow 
* domestic basis continues to firm
* Importers are reducing tariffs

Corn
* Export demand building      
* Brazil exports remain high 
* Brazil crop has adequate moisture       
* Feed wheat competition to rebuild 
* World ethanol demand is rising      

  
Soybeans
* China buyer of 66% of US sales
* US soy oil demand a 21 year low
* Brazil exports remain above last year     
* Global veg oil market softens     
* US crush expansion expected

Wheat
* Drought in US Plains worsens    
* France cuts export forecast  
* So Korea shopping more sources         
* Trade questions global crop quality   
* Demand for US offers is low           
 
Livestock
* Weekly hog slaughter a 9-month high  
* Hog deliveries expected to slow this week 
* US beef exports slow  
* US yearly beef exports 2.86 million pounds 
* US pork exports building


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Friday, December 10th, 2021

Yesterday’s WASDE numbers will likely impact today’s trade as well. This is especially the case on wheat where ending stocks increased more than expected, both domestically and globally. As this reaction starts to wear off trade attention will shift more towards month, quarter, and year end positioning. Given the fact next week is the last full week of trade for the calendar year this activity will likely increase. This can easily generate elevated volatility and wide price swings. This volatility will only increase as we move closer to the holidays and trade volume thins. Along with this trade will start to focus more on the upcoming South American harvest season. Soybean harvest will be getting underway in Brazil shortly and with it will come elevated exports. This shift has already started to take place with US soybean sales slowing in recent weeks. The cash market will also be closely monitoring activity over the next few weeks as it is not uncommon to see a slight increase in country movement ahead of year end. The most interest from cash buyers will fall on January though as hopes are farmers will elevate their sales at that time.  

Highlights
* Inflation keeps markets nervous 
* Country movement minimal   
* Higher deliveries expected in January 
* Heat forecast to build in SAM   
* Buyers pass on US offers 
* Quality impacts buying decisions  
* Market Starting to add risk premium    
* Total US acreage being questioned 
* Trade slowing ahead of Holidays
* Market focus shifts to year end

Corn
* US carryout unchanged at 1.49 bbu     
* World ending stocks at 305.5 mmt 
* World carryout +12.9 mmt from last year      
* Average cash projection $5.45 
* US basis +9c since harvest       

Soybeans
* US carryout unchanged at 340 mbu 
* World ending stocks 102 mmt
* World carryout up 2.2 mmt from 20/21     
* Cash projected at $12.10     
* Basis +14c since harvest    

    

Wheat
* US ending stocks 598 mbu   
* Carryout +15 mbu from Nov 
* World carryover 278.2 mmt        
* World carryover -11.5 mmt from 20/21  
* Cash projected at $7.05          
 
Livestock
* 2022 beef production 27 billion pounds 
* 2022 pork production 27.6 billion pounds 
* Average steer value at $135.25, hogs at $60.25  
* 2021 beef exports yearly low at 4,200 mt
* 2021 pork export sales -52% at 19,800 mt


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Thursday, December 9th, 2021

All attention in today’s session will fall on the release of the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. For the most part trade is expecting to see a steady carryout on corn and higher ending stocks of soybeans. Wheat carryout is expected to decrease, even though recent demand has started to trail off as price rationing develops in that grain. The most interest today may fall on the global side of balance sheets. The most interest in these numbers will fall on South America, mainly Brazil. Several private groups have elevated their Brazilian production forecasts in recent weeks, with some indicating a soybean crop that will be 2-4 million metric tons larger than the current USDA estimate, and a corn crop that may be nearly 8 million metric tons larger than what the USDA is predicting. If correct these changes will greatly alter the entire mindset of the commodity market. There are also thought the Argentine corn crop will be increased due to a favorable start to the growing season. Other areas of the globe that will be focused on are Ukraine, China, and Australia to see if current crops are altered given recent adverse weather conditions.  

Highlights
* Chinese commodity processing rebounds 
* China’s import margins improve  
* More export countries raise taxes
* Market rallies suppress buying  
* Trade looking for rumored sales confirmations  
* Cash markets leading futures 
* Technicals turning neutral   
* SAM crop stress limited so far  
* WASDE data at 11:00 CT today
* Mostly neutral numbers expected         

Corn
* US carryout est 1.475 bbu      
* Carryout -18 mbu from Nov   
* World ending stocks est 304.5 mmt       
* CONAB pegs Brazil corn at 117.2 mmt    
* EU shopping for imports      

Soybeans
* US carryout est 355 mbu  
* Carryout est +15 mbu from Nov 
* World ending stocks 104.4 mmt     
* CONAB puts Brazil crop at 142.8 mmt      
* US sales/shipments ahead of 5 year ave   

   

Wheat
* US ending stocks est 589 mbu     
* Carryout up 6 mbu from Nov 
* World carryover est 276 mmt        
* World wheat inventory a 14 year low     
* Argentine yields better than expected          
 
Livestock
* Cattle trade very light 
* Most sales from $140 to $142   
* Wholesale beef is weaker    
* Average Us hog bid at $60.50   
* Pork cut out remains soft   


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Wednesday, December 8th, 2021

Positioning ahead of tomorrow’s monthly supply and demand report is starting to increase. Typically the December balance sheets receive little if any trade attention, but this year has been anything but typical. Domestic production numbers will remain unchanged from November this month, but demand will be altered. This may be more of a case on soybeans where exports have not been up to hoped for levels. This is mainly from a lack of Chinese demand. Chinese importers claim their soybean imports from the United States will likely fall 20% due to the shipping delays caused by Hurricane Ida. While this is a factor in the lower US exports, so is the fact Brazil produced a record soybean crop last year and is still exporting those bushels. Brazil is now a perpetual soybean exporter, and this will alter the entire world soybean trade dynamics going forward. Trade will also focus on corn demand where more of a mixed opinion is forming. Exports have been steady on corn and could be bumped higher. The same is true on ethanol demand. The real unknown on all of these possibilities is if the USDA will make any changes this month or wait to see if current trends last through the marketing year.  

Highlights
* Trade monitoring drier SAM forecasts 
* Covid mandates impact global logistics  
* Market waiting for Chinese import quotas 
* Vessels to start congregating in SAM  
* Russia to lower export quotas 
* Natural gas values lowest in 4 months 
* Black Sea tensions building  
* Interior basis remains firm 
* Rebound in ethanol production expected 
* WASDE tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT        

  

Corn
* Argentine firms raise crop est     
* Plantings in Argentina greater than thought  
* Argentine crop 90% G/E      
* Buyers revising GMO regulations   
* Ethanol returns a 6-year high     

Soybeans
* Rains elevate rust chances in SAM 
* Buyers focused on Brazil 
* US yearly sales to China -9.3 mmt    
* Argentine crop 88% G/E     
* Brazil exports +88% in Nov from 2020      

Wheat
* EU likely to deplete reserves     
* US wheat uncompetitive     
* Buyers focused on Australian offers       
* Argentine crop 65% G/E    
* US wheat sales at 526.1 mbu 2nd lowest on record         
 
Livestock
* Pork bellies support complex
* Pork cut outs seeing pressure  
* High hog weights remain a concern   
* Packers have holiday needs covered  
* High holiday consumer demand expected  

 
RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Tuesday, December 7th, 2021

Volatility in the commodity complex has been elevated for the past several months and shows no signs of slowing. There is always a certain amount of volatility in futures but given the shift of market focus and fundamentals in recent years. This has been elevated by the increased volume of managed money flow in the markets and the interest these traders are showing in commodities. This has generated wide price swings in recent months which has been pushed even higher by the outside markets. This includes how the market reacts to geopolitical events such as rising tensions between the US and China at times. Elevated conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been another instance that has impacted global grain trade. The most notable outside influence in recent years has been the rise in reaction to Covid and its new variants. Each time a new variant has been detected it has caused a sizable reaction in the market, with the most recent being on Thanksgiving. These events have been short lived but do cause a considerable shift in market attitude when they happen. Increased weather interest in South America and the need for large global grain production to satisfy demand have also caused a rise in market volatility.  

Highlights
* Trade shifting into “Holiday Mode” 
* Geopolitical tensions building  
* China claims it will “clean up” environment 
* Brazil firming non-GMO regulations 
* Buyers pass on US offers 
* Cash market remains strong 
* Basis indicates tighter reserves 
* Monthly WASDE report on Thursday
* Jan options expire Dec 23rd 
* FND on Jan contracts is Dec 31st     

   

Corn
* Brazil selling out old crop    
* Ethanol demand keeps rising 
* Ethanol bids remain strong     
* Current SAM weather favorable  
* Analysts raise Brazil yield forecast     

Soybeans
* Global oilseed mkt correcting   
* US soybeans cheapest through Jan    
* Feb forward favors Brazil   
* Brazil export business above last year    
* US oil yield remains elevated    

Wheat
* Weather drives world values     
* US Plains need rain    
* Rains continue to impact Australian crop      
* Long range maps are favorable   
* 2022 wheat acres to be above 2021        
 
Livestock
* US pork demand -9% from 2020     
* US beef exports close to all of last year 
* Beef exports may top record from 2018  
* November hog slaughter +1% on the year  
* Nov hog slaughter 2nd highest on record


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Monday, December 6th, 2021

The early portion of this week’s trade will be spent getting positions in place for the monthly WASDE report. Typically the December WASDE data receives little attention as only the demand side is updated in the domestic balance sheets. This year may be different though as trade has placed elevated interest in all balance sheet updates for the past year regardless of their historic tendencies. At first this was because trade was concerned the US would deplete its old crop inventory of soybeans. This transitioned into the US seeing its soybean reserves build and now trade is questioning our actual demand. Some models indicate that even if soybean production holds steady, we could see ending stocks increase by at least 100 million bu given our recent lack-luster demand. There is minimal need for risk premium in the soy complex at this time, and a build in reserves of this volume would remove all need. Trade is starting to lean the other direction on corn stocks though, with thoughts we could see a considerable reduction to ending stocks moving forward. Some models show corn carryout dropping to 1 billion bu and possibly less. This will increase the volume of buying interest in the complex considerably.  

Highlights
* Farm groups push back on biofuel reductions
* Several groups ask for high blend rates globally 
* Argentine total ag exports +17.7% this year
* Russia confirms limiting fertilizer exports
* Russia claims existing contracts will be honored 
* US ethanol stocks highest of the year
* Input costs to remain elevated 
* Low water causing transit issues in US rivers 
* Low water may allow more icing  
* Rail logistics also an issue in US      

Corn
* Corn -7 ¾ last week   
* Argentine exports build 
* Brazil exporting more old crop    
* China corn continues to rally 
* US corn would work into China    

Soybeans
* Soybeans +14 last week  
* World biodiesel blend forecast lowered   
* Crush margins weakening  
* Export demand is slowing   
* China imports from US will be down 20% this year  

  

Wheat
* Wheat -36 ½ last week    
* Ukraine wheat values +12% this year    
* Yearly Ukraine exports +22%     
* EU raises export forecast  
* Milling supply shrinking rapidly       
 
Livestock
* Cash cattle trade is light     
* Buyers not willing to over-extend coverage    
* Cash hogs perking up 
* Boxed beef weakens 
* Slaughter numbers remain depressed


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning comments; Friday, December 3rd, 2021

It has been one week since the announcement of a new Covid strain and countries would be imposing restrictions to try and stop its spread. This immediately led to sharp declines in almost all markets, including the commodities. The initial reaction to this news was likely overdone, and overexaggerated due to the low volume created by the Thanksgiving holiday. Futures were quick to stabilize, and losses were limited compared to other Covid announcements. Still, the rapid sell-off in the markets showed just how nervous traders are, especially the managed money crowd. We have witnessed an increase in managed money involvement in commodity trade which heightens this potential volatility. As a result, traditional market fundamentals have taken a back seat to technicals and other factors, with simple profit taking and the limiting of potential losses being two main ones. The real question now is if this money flow will resume or if traders will simply wait for further developments before establishing new market positions. The timing of this development will be a factor in this decision as many traders are already starting to shore up positions ahead of month, quarter, and year end.  

Highlights
* World food values rise for 4th straight month
* World food values +1.2% from Oct to Nov
* Biofuel producing countries alter blend rates
* Technicals playing role in price discovery
* Drought builds in US Plains 
* Conditions now driest in 7 years
* Trade questions SAM conditions 
* Volatility builds in US dollar 
* Dollar is 8% off lows 
* Stats Canada production data today    

Corn
* Chinese corn $10.60/bu  
* Argentine exports perking up 
* Many buyers waiting for new crop   
* Global feed grain trade is down   
* Domestic demand likely underestimated   

Soybeans
* Argentine crush is slowing 
* Brazil still making old crop exports  
* Strong dollar encourages selling 
* Rebound expected in Australian Canola crop  
* US demand likely overestimated  

Wheat
* EU wheat carryout under estimates   
* Stats Canada to forecast production    
* Argentine crop estimates rising    
* Paris milling wheat makes new highs 
* Russian taxes not slowing exports      
 
Livestock
* Bird Flu again a market concern    
* Most cases reported in EU   
* 2021 beef sales at 21,600 mt
* 2021 pork sales at 41,400 mt
* China a large buyer of both


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Thursday, December 2nd, 2021

Within the next few weeks soybean harvest will be getting underway in Brazil. This is not a shock and trade has had plenty of time to prepare for it. The most interest when harvest starts is how long it will take for exports to follow with some sources claiming they will be nearly immediate. Others believe it may take a few weeks for the soybeans to filter into the supply line. Brazil is still exporting old crop soybeans though, so we may really not see much of a delay at all. Some analysts are looking beyond the soybean harvest though and focusing on how much double cropping may take place. Initially it was thought Brazilian farmers would plant a much larger Safrinha crop than last year due to elevated values and increasing global corn demand. How big of a crop is actually grown will depend heavily upon weather conditions in  Brazil and if the La Nina continues to intensify. Input availability will also be a factor for Safrinha production, mainly fertilizer. Trade will be closely monitoring today’s export sales data. We have had a build in export numbers in recent weeks, but daily sales announcements have slowed which may temper the weekly volumes.

Highlights
* US flash sales slow
* India to increase DDG imports
* DDG values have been pressured
* High values slow global trade
* Labor talks to slow West Coast imports 
* Domestic demand at full capacity
* Export interest has slowed
* Less than 10% of Argentine soils dry 
* Managed money flow is sporadic 
* Fresh news is thin    

Corn
* EU imports -30% from last year  
* Global feed grain supply questioned 
* China buying from Ukraine  
* China rotating inventory  
* Brazil plantings higher than thought   

Soybeans
* October crush totaled 197 mbu
* US crushers to expand capacity  
* Interior basis is mixed, gulf is firm   
* New crop demand is light 
* Brazil planting in later stages  

Wheat
* Feed interest is rising   
* World market focused on Black Sea values   
* Flour values at record highs   
* World milling quality wheat record low stocks 
* Australian harvest at 40%      
 
Livestock
* Trade looking for higher exports    
* Demand shifting to 2022  
* Yearly pork exports -200,000 mt  
* Domestic demand to slow  
* Red meat consumption may slow after holidays


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Wednesday, December 1st, 2021

Now that the calendar has turned to December, we will see a shift in market attitude. The main one of these is positioning for year end. This is more of a case for farmers who run on a calendar year rather than a fiscal year, but definitely is a factor in price discovery. We also have the Christmas Holiday that trade will position for which brings thin volume and makes futures much easier to manipulate. This can cause exaggerated trade activity from now until we turn the calendar to 2022. We will also start to see some positioning in the market for the December WASDE report that will be released on the 9th. Only commodity demand is updated this month which tends to decrease trade interest in the data. We have seen several surprises from the USDA in reports this year though and cannot rule out anything in this one either. On the global front all interest will be on the approaching South American harvest. Soybean harvest is expected to begin in Brazil by mid-month with exports to follow shortly after. Demand for US soybeans is expected to drop even more when this begins.

Highlights
* Mostly favorable weather in South America
* Ukraine expected to turn dry on winter crops 
* Ukraine grain exports +18% from last year
* NCGA asks for removal of input tariffs
* Yearly ethanol exports a record $2.9 billion 
* La Nina still building, slower than last year
* US jobless claims lowest since 1969
* US processing margins remain favorable
* New month positioning to develop
* Dec WASDE next Thursday  

Corn
* Average US spot basis -14 cents  
* Basis is 7 cents better than last year 
* Ukraine exports pressure US sales 
* Brazil corn values retreating 
* More old crop selling in Brazil  

Soybeans
* Global veg oil corrects
* October crush est 195.6 mbu  
* US meal sales lightest in 3 years  
* US overpriced in global market
* Brazil meal $54.00/mt under US  

Wheat
* Near perfect growing conditions in SAM  
* Argentine crop a record 20.3 mmt  
* Low protein in Australian wheat   
* Buyers pass on high prices
* Egypt reports 5 month wheat supply     
 
Livestock
* Chinese hog herd size questioned    
* Packers focus on Christmas needs  
* US pork exports slowing  
* Lower demand negates low pork production 
* Beef costs impact consumer demand


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Tuesday, November 30th, 2021

Month end positioning will be a dominant factor in today’s trade. This is especially the case for the December contracts that are now in delivery. Light deliveries were expected against the December contracts, especially on corn. Trade will be closely monitoring how many deliveries do take place, and more importantly, who is stopping them. The cash market is strong enough it is likely to keep any deliveries light. The US harvest is now finished for the most part, and once the calendar turns to December trade will become much less interested in any unharvested acres. Typically this removes much of the market interest in US weather, but this year may be different. The US Plains and Pacific Northwest suffered from severe drought last year and given the odds for a strengthening La Nina, may be affected again this year. This already has some traders concerned with next year’s US production, especially on wheat where no loss can be tolerated given our shrinking supplies. Any indication that production will be impacted by weather and we will likely see additional buying in the wheat complex. We will also continue to monitor the outside markets, especially their reaction to renewed Covid impacts. The markets stabilized yesterday, but fresh selling developed overnight.

Highlights
* Dry pockets reported in South America
* Heat expected to build in Argentina
* Analysts keep SAM production estimates elevated
* US barge freight is firming
* Equity market volatility impacting commodities 
* November job report this Friday
* Ocean freight on the rise
* Seasonals tend to support markets
* Month end positioning to drive trade
* Today is FND on Dec contracts  

Corn
* Privates put Brazil crop at 124 mmt  
* Argentine crop est 55 mmt 
* Other privates question SAM yields 
* Brazil 1st crop acreage +2.5% 
* Safrinha acreage to increase 5.6% 

Soybeans
* Brazil crop rest 144 mmt
* Argentine crop smaller at 50 mmt  
* Very little quality issues in SAM  
* US oil yield remains record high
* China has Dec needs covered

Wheat
* Winter wheat 92% emerged 
* Wheat rated 44% G/E 
* Reports of poor germination   
* Australian crop larger than thought
* 25% of Australian crop low quality    
 
Livestock
* Cattle futures at a 3 month high    
* Boxed beef is softer  
* Inflation concerns limit consumer demand 
* Cash market firming as movement slows
* US poultry stocks -17.7% on the year


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.