News Source: SETZ

Morning Comments; Friday, July 30th, 2021

Trade is starting to collect more field data as crop tours take place. While few of these are what would be considered official, they are giving us some surprises. For one, scouts that have went through the Dakotas claim more abandonment has taken place than they expected. They are claim the soybean fields look as bad as the wheat in some regions. This may reduce soybean production more than expected in that region. At the same time reports of much better soybean fields are being seen as you move east across the Corn Belt with some regions claiming stands are the best ever. The question as always is if the very good regions will make up for the worst regions. We are also receiving more fields reports on corn with some surprises. Even in the drought-stricken US Plains reports are coming in that plants do not look as bad as expected. Same as with soybeans the further you go east the better the corn crop gets. The question with all of this data is if they will impact yield estimates and overall production. A few forecasters have started to increase their corn crop projections, but not a significant amount from where the USDA currently has it.  

Highlights
* Global investors avoid commodities
* US housing market starting to flatten
* US consumer confidence is slowing
* Consumer spending still up 11.8% in 2nd quarter
* Chinese hog margins turn negative
* Low water may halt all So American exports
* China to auction more corn today
* Ratings expected to decline next Monday
* Month end positioning today
* FND on August contracts

Corn
* Old crop export cancellations continue
* Privates estimates US yield from 175 to 183 bpa
* Old crop basis weakening
* Weather remains factor in corn yield/quality
* Little frost damage in Brazil corn

Soybeans
* Old crop sales cancelled
* Private yield estimates holding at 50 bpa
* Argentine 21/22 plantings to be lowest in 15 years
* Chinese imports likely to slow
* US crop rating 14% under last year

Wheat
* Export demand rising
* Large global crop offsets No American losses
* Buyers sourcing needs from Black Sea
* Technicals limit wheat futures
* Spring tour results worse than thought

Livestock
* US hog deliveries +3% last week
* Cattle testing June highs
* Weekly beef sales at 22,500 mt; -11% 
* Weekly pork sales 38,500 mt; +57% 
* China buys US beef, passes on pork


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; thursday, July 29th, 2021

Even though we are not even to the end of July, trade is already starting to place interest on the upcoming WASDE report that will be released on August 12th. The August report tends to be when trade places more attention on the production side of the data as more information on the developing crop becomes available. This year trade will pay even more attention on production as there is no room for loss, especially on soybeans. It is unlikely we will see a significant reduction to either corn or soybeans at this time though, as even with less than perfect weather across the United States, it is hard to accurately determine if production loss has occurred. Trade may wait until actual field collected samples are taken for the September report before adjusting their numbers. The same is not true for South America and other production regions of the world. Heavy losses have been reported in Canada on both wheat and canola. The European Union is also reporting yield loss on wheat following floods, as has the Black Sea where drought has taken place. The most attention may fall on US wheat production as the tour through the spring wheat belt is finding one of the worst crops in recent history.  

Highlights
* Concerns shown over economic indicators
* Chinese economy becomes unstable
* China takes firm stance on US Covid investigations
* La Nina readings strengthen
* US export demand remains light
* US drought not improving
* US ethanol production remains flat
* Ethanol stocks continue to rise
* US pasture conditions worst since 2006
* Tomorrow is FND on August contracts

Corn
* GMO content lowers Chinese auction demand
* Funds have reduced long position for 3 weeks
* Brazil corn sets new highs
* Argentina may be out of exportable surplus
* Minimal flood damage to china crop

Soybeans
* Funds add to long positions
* China shopping for meal
* Global crush margins improve
* Loadings likely above USDA figures
* Early harvest possible

Wheat
* Wheat tour finds yields -30% from average
* Low wheat quality a concern
* Low test weight may impact demand
* Corn again pressuring wheat feeding
* Ukraine taking bulk of import interest

Livestock
* Beef values firming
* Beef expected to rally through August
* Long-term cattle inventory to tighten
* China may have lost hogs in flooding
* US pork over-valued in world market


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Wednesday, July 28th, 2021

The volatility we have grown accustomed to seeing in the commodity market is unlikely to subside anytime soon. We are still in the midst of the US growing season and plenty of time for crop loss to still develop. In fact, this is the time when last year’s crops started to face the majority of their losses as a late season drought took place. This coincided with the start of a large Chinese buying program that drove soybean futures to recent highs. Even if we do not see those same conditions develop this year the tight new crop stocks to use ratios on corn and soybeans both will keep futures elevated. This is especially the case on soybeans where no yield loss at all can be tolerated with the current demand projection. This same situation is starting to develop in the global market. The world balance sheets are currently adequate, but we will need to see a return to more normal production levels to prevent stocks from being depleted. This is only adding to the volatility we are currently seeing. Even with these tight stocks forecasts, the United States needs to remain competitive. Our greatest competition right now is from Ukraine where large crops are allowing them to make export offers at a sizable discount to the rest of the world’s commodity suppliers.  

Highlights
* US yield debate increases
* Some analysts are raising expectations, others are lowering
* US ethanol stocks expected to rise
* Transit issues hinder US export interest
* Low water slows barge movement
* Importers waiting for market set-back to buy
* Country movement remains light
* Brazil fertilizer imports +14% from year ago
* Questions arise on Brazil crop protection plans
* US export line up is light

Corn
* Brazil corn at $8.00/bu
* Brazil elevates Argentine imports
* Corn oil rally supports complex
* Record values to encourage global production
* US corn loadings +64% from last year 

Soybeans
* Feed substitutes cut Chinese demand
* Gulf basis weakens
* China showing interest in fall coverage
* Soy products run into resistance
* Soy loadings +50% from last year

Wheat
* Drought stressing So American crop
* Buyers source needs from Ukraine
* Russia lowers export taxes
* Analysts lower French crop
* French crop still +8 mmt year ago

Livestock
* Weak feed grains benefit margins
* US cattle inventory remains high
* Boxed beef stabilizes
* US hog slaughter -1% from last year
* Spec hog position at 5 week high


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Tuesday, July 27th, 2021

As expected, the conditions of the US crops deteriorated last week. The US corn crop is now rated 64% G/E, down 1%. The soybean crop rating decreased 2 points and stands at 58% G/E. The maturity of both crops continues to run ahead of average though and indicates we could see an early harvest this year. The spring wheat rating dropped a large 2 points on the week and it now at an all-time low of just 9% G/E. Given the stage of the growing season we are in it is unlikely we will see much improvement to these numbers. The majority of trade interest remains on weather. This was evident in yesterday’s session where conflicting forecasts caused early losses to be erased as speculative buying took over. This elevated volatility is likely to continue right up to this year’s harvest. Even then weather interest will simply shift to South America as those countries prepare for the upcoming planting and production seasons. The outside markets are adding to price volatility as the US dollar is again posting wide price swings. This attracts import buyers when values dip but deters them when it rebounds. This has been shown to amplify the reaction to actual commodity values in recent weeks.  

Highlights
* US gasoline demand levels out
* US export interest is growing
* Market still concerned with possible cancelations
* Global farmers selling remains minimal
* US crop reports vary
* Ukraine grain exports +41% from year ago
* Ukraine exports may top last year by 12 mmt
* Brazil ups grain imports for feed demand
* Little freeze damage expected in Brazil this week
* August first Notice Day this Friday

Corn
* Corn crop rated 64% G/E
* 18% of corn in dough stage
* India ups corn export forecast
* China finding few auction buyers
* Brazil predicts 8 mmt few exports than USDA 

Soybeans
* Crop is rated 58% G/E
* 42% of the crop has set pods
* Brazil firms increase 21/22 production
* Brazil plantings to increase 7% 
* US crush margin back above $1.00/bu

Wheat
* Winter crop is 84% harvested
* Spring wheat harvest is at 3%
* Spring crop rating just 9% G/E
* Analysts continue to lower Canadian yields
* US quality a concern

Livestock
* Cash cattle trade remains light
* Chinese pork buying slows
* Other buyers cover lack of Chinese business
* Consumer demand shifting to poultry
* Packers prepare for end of grilling season


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Monday, July 26th, 2021

The majority of this week will be spent getting positioned for month end. This will be more of a case for the August soybean contract as that is the only one that goes into delivery. Many of the existing August soybean contracts have already been rolled to the deferred months so overall market activity may be light. We are at a point where more interest is starting to be placed on soybean production in the market. Historically, August is the month when weather starts to be more of a factor for the soybean crop. Now is when we start to see setting and filling pods. Corn is done with pollination and now in the ear setting and filling stage and weather remains a factor for that crop as well. Long range models are indicating a warmer than normal August is in store and that will be closely monitored by trade. The real question is how much above normal temperatures climb, and how much rain is received. Even with elevated temperatures, rains will temper the negativity it may have on crop development. We are also not at a stage where buyers will have a better idea of how much old crop coverage they need ahead of the upcoming harvest. It is not uncommon to see split bids because of this.

Highlights
* China reportedly shopping for fall coverage
* Canadian rains too late to provide much benefit
* More abandonment seen in Dakotas
* Demand uncertainty pressuring futures
* Concerns build over old crop sales cancellations
* US struggles to remain price competitive
* Logistic issues follow Chinese floods
* US sides with Australia in Chinese trade dispute
* Month end positioning to develop
* Crop ratings expected to remain steady

Corn
* US ethanol margins hold at break even
* US corn sales are record high
* Small Brazilian crop to elevate US sales
* Some analysts raise US yield estimates
* High priced wheat encourages corn feeding 

Soybeans
* Rains may have aided Canadian canola
* US crush margins have improved
* Crush margins better in ECB than WCB
* Brazil July exports to top trade estimates
* Argentine cut to biodiesel not significant

Wheat
* Rains delay EU harvest
* EU harvest at 4%, year ago was 40%
* Rains too late for Canadian crop
* Global market limits US price rally
* More buyers balk at high costs

Livestock
* July 1st COF 99% @ 11.29 million
* June placements 93% @ 1.67 million
* June marketings 103% @ 2.02 million
* Pork bellies support entire complex
* US hogs over-priced in global market


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Friday, July 23rd, 2021

Interior basis values in the United States are becoming more volatile. Country movement of farm stored inventory is lighter than expected ahead of the upcoming harvest. The June stocks data showed us that farm stored corn and soybeans is considerably less than a year ago and some producers feel they will be able to store the rest of their old crop bushels along with what they will harvest this year. Others want to see what happens with crop development over the next few weeks before marketing their remaining inventory. This has caused basis to strengthen across much of the Corn Belt, but more so in Eastern regions where basis is averaging 10-cents better than in the Western Corn Belt. Processor bids are starting to become more erratic though as processing margins are mixed. Crush margins on soybeans have started to improve which is causing soybean buyers to push for deliveries. Ethanol margins have declined in recent weeks though and are near breakeven in several areas. This is limiting how much interest we are seeing in pushing bids at ethanol plants. Yesterday’s session was heavily influenced by weather and today will likely be no different. The main question is how long the forecast heat will impact the US and if rains will accompany the elevated temperatures.

Highlights
* Field reports mixed on WCB crops
* Some corn termed “better than expected” 
* Brazil freeze was more of a factor for sugar
* Argentine export taxes forecast to rise
* Argentine soy sales 2 mmt under last year on tax threats
* More countries focus on food inflation
* US building permits drop to 8 month low
* Trade starting to look to August WASDE
* Trade expecting lower production figures
* August options expire today

Corn
* Export line up is low
* US corn mostly pollinated
* Ukraine corn cheapest in mkt
* Brazil may need more corn for ethanol
* China cancels old crop corn bookings 

Soybeans
* Loadings need to average 29 mbu/wk
* Seasonal indicate lower values
* China crush margins remain negative
* China focused on Brazil imports
* Soybean sales ahead of yearly estimated total

Wheat
* Reports indicate low Kansas protein 
* Global wheat market rallies
* Buyers continue to pass on high values
* More countries limit exports
* Weekly sales starting to increase

Livestock
* July COF estimated at 99% year ago
* June placements estimated at 96%, marketings 102% 
* Weekly meat sales increase
* China cancels US pork purchases
* Cold Storage inventories all under last year


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Thursday, July 22nd, 2021

Trade is closely monitoring South American weather conditions. The La Nina that affected Southern Brazil and Argentina this year fully depleted soil moisture reserves in some regions. The concern now is that unless rains start to take place soon, these drought conditions will not be reversed ahead of the next production season. This is even more concerning with some forecast models indicating we could see a redevelopment of the La Nina weather pattern this year causing further stress in South America. The global market is counting on large production in South America to help offset small reserves in other countries, mainly the soybean situation in the United States. Planting is still several months away in South America which is limiting the volume of risk premium added to the market, but it is reducing futures’ losses. This uncertainty in South America has combined with the same feelings in the United States to limit farm-gate sales. Country movement in both North and South America is limited which is driving basis values higher. Fresh export demand has been sparse, however, which is capping basis improvement. The main river of today’s session is again weather as conditions and outlooks are mixed across the United States. While some forecast models are calling for cooling temperatures and rainfall others are keeping temperatures elevated for the next few weeks. This conflict is adding to market volatility.

Highlights
* Water conversation pushed in So America
* Parana River at all-time lows
* Trade questions overall US production
* Countries again limit food grain exports
* Latest US recession considered over
* Very little US crop poorly rated
* China to increase feed grain imports
* June Chinese feed grain imports a record 25.9 mmt
* US ethanol production declines last week
* Ethanol stocks jump a large 1.38 million bbl

Corn
* US DDG values under pressure
* US corn considered over-priced
* More reports of Brazil corn being re-sold
* Corn loadings unlikely to reach yearly projection
* World food grain supply to shrink 

Soybeans
* Soybean progress ahead of normal
* China scales back soybean imports
* Soy oil sales expected to decrease
* Global vegetable oils under pressure
* US crop rating below normal for six weeks

Wheat
* Spring wheat rating near record low
* Spring wheat harvest set to begin
* Trade expects more Chinese business
* Canada crop down to 27 mmt
* Heavy rains may impact EU crop quality

Livestock
* US beef values continue to decline
* Cash cattle mostly untested
* Weekly hog slaughter -4% from year ago 
* Hog weights are declining
* China predicts slowing hog slaughter


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Wednesday, July 21st, 2021

Weather remains the primary driving factor in price discovery at the present time. Corn is still pollinating across much of the United States and ears are being set and starting to fill. As this takes place some agronomists claim yield can be greatly impacted. The same is true on soybeans where pod setting and filling is starting to take place. The regions being watched the most are the Upper Plains and Western Corn Belt where rains have been less regular and drought is more of a factor. Not only is drought impacting the US in this region, but the drought is also affecting Canada, with some reports indicating losses have been even greater. Not only has the Canadian wheat crop been affected by drought but so has the canola crop. This is actually more of a factor for the global oilseed market as a large share of the world’s canola supply comes from Canada. A smaller crop will only increase demand for soybeans and other oilseeds. This loss in Canada was tempered yesterday by news Argentina will be lowering its biodiesel blend rate. Thoughts are this will free up more soy oil for the global market. Trade is also again monitoring the spread of Covid cases and what impact they may have on commodity demand.  

Highlights
* Basis values continue to rally in SAM
* Argentina lowers shipping drafts again
* August expected to be warmer than normal
* Crop ratings forecast to decline
* Current ratings indicate 40% loss in spring wheat yield
* Domestic buyers waiting for new crop supplies
* US market following world markets
* Debate continues on E-15 use
* Ethanol production forecast to increase in weekly report
* Ethanol stocks expected to decline

Corn
* Global importers lower tax rates
* Buyers export post-pollination sales
* New crop exports to increase
* Forward contracted sales +11 mmt year ago
* Yearly corn shipments +65% 

Soybeans
* Exporters looking for Chinese return
* Argentina may increase soy oil sales
* US has very few unshipped sales
* Trade doubts yield estimates
* Export loadings +51% on the year

Wheat
* US wheat sales rising
* Early loading pace -22% from last year
* Damage reported from heavy US rains
* Ukraine reporting high quality crop
* Chinese wheat imports +60% on the year

Livestock
* US beef exports may be underestimated
* US cattle slaughter totals 18 million head
* YTD cattle slaughter +800,000 head from last year 
* US hog slaughter at 69.3 million head
* YTD hog slaughter -152,000 head from last year


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Thursday, July 15th, 2021

The United States is in a tight position in the global commodity market. Stocks to use on US corn and soybeans are both at levels where rationing is warranted. This is especially the case on soybeans where the stocks to use is expected to remain near 3% in the new crop marketing year and possibly beyond. This has prevented massive liquidation from taking place in the soy complex. While the new crop stocks to use on corn is also tight at 9.6%, we are seeing less worry on corn rationing. This is mainly from prospects for world corn production to increase this year. The most attention is on China where corn plantings are forecast to expand 6% from this year. China has evolved into a leading corn importer and if their demand weakens, it will impact US balance sheets. This possibility has already started to affect what buyers are valuing corn at in the global market. The US corn market is also finding pressure from the fact it is the highest priced in the world market. The most surprising source that is undercutting the US is Brazil even though corn production is down sharply from drought and other weather issues. Argentina is offering corn at a discount to both the US and Brazil, further tempering our present demand.  

Highlights
* US gasoline demand hits 10 million gallons/day
* Senators pushing for year around E-15 use
* Canadian drought worsens
* Most impact is on canola
* USDA looking to expand packer capacity 
* So Dakota experiences driest June in 127 years 
* US Covid cases rising
* Global economic growth has slowed
* Weekly ethanol manufacturing down 2.4%
* US ethanol stocks well above last year


Corn
* Brazil imports Argentine corn
* Chinese auctions attract few buyers
* China reports adequate feed grain supplies
* US old crop sales +64% last year  
* US new crop sales 238% above year ago pace

Soybeans
* Firming So America basis to push buyers to US
* Canola continues to rally
* NOPA crush today est 159.5 mbu
* US old crop sales +35% from last year
* New crop export sales a 6 year high

Wheat
* US wheat pressured by global market
* Buyers willing to go “hand to mouth”
* US stock of high protein wheat running low
* Global wheat trade to increase 6% this year
* US export sales -11% from last year

Livestock
* YTD beef exports a record 464,700 mt
* Yearly beef exports +22% last year
* Yearly pork exports total 1 mmt  
* China accounts for 29% of US pork sales
* USDA to compensate farmer culling during Covid


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Wednesday, June 30th, 2021

At long last the much-anticipated quarterly stocks and acreage revision reports will be released today. On acres, average trade guesses are for 93.8 million on corn, 89.1 million for soybeans, and 46 million for wheat. These would be increases of 2.6 million on corn and 1.5 million on soybeans from the March intentions, but a 400,000 acre decrease on wheat. These acres compare to the 90.8 million on corn, 83.1 million on soybeans, and 44.3 million of wheat that were planted a year ago. The main focus may be on harvested acres though, and very little loss is expected to corn or soybeans from last year. We may see heavier abandonment in wheat though as drought has impacted the spring crop heavily in the Upper Plains and Pacific Northwest. Quarterly stocks will also be released and may be a larger factor in price discovery, especially on old crop. Average trade estimates are for June 1st inventories of 4.13 billion bu (bbu) on corn, 773 million bu (mbu) of soybeans and 861 mbu of wheat. These compare to the year ago figures of 5 bbu on corn, 1.38 bbu of soybeans, and 1.03 bbu of wheat. Today is also first notice day on the July contracts and quarter end, which will elevate market volatility.  

Highlights
* Quarterly stocks and acreage reports at 11:00 AM CT
* Today also quarter end
* Today is FND on July contracts
* Soybean stocks may be 50% of year ago 
* Corn inventory down 20% from year ago
* Heat in PNW leads to rolling blackouts
* Australia again places Covid lock-downs
* Analysts remain optimistic on US yields
* DDG values under pressure
* Biofuel waivers still uncertain

Corn
* Corn stocks est 4.13 bbu
* Acreage estimated at 93.8 million
* So Africa crop up 7% this year
* Ukraine grain exports -11 mmt from last year
* Frost impact monitored in Brazil

Soybeans
* June 1st stocks est 773 mbu
* Acreage est 89.1 million
* New crop demand rising
* Argentine crush up 17% from last year
* Palm Oil production +15% from year ago

Wheat
* Quarterly stocks est 861 mbu
* Total acreage est 46 million
* Today’s stocks set old crop carryout
* Russia reports better than expected yields
* World wheat supply holding steady

Livestock
* Chinese hogs start to recover
* US hogs bounce from being oversold
* US hog slaughter is slowing
* Packer hog deliveries -3% last week
* US cull rate becoming a focal point


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Tuesday, June 29th, 2021

The ratings of the US corn and soybeans crops held mostly steady last week. Corn is now rated 64% Good/Excellent, down 1 point on the week. Corn is also 4% in the silk stage, just under the 6% that is average. The soybean rating was unchanged at 60% G/E.  Blooming has taken place on 14% of the US soybean crop which is 3% ahead of average. As expected, the US wheat crop ratings continued to decline with just 39% of the winter and 20% of the spring crops rated Good/Excellent. Now that these numbers have been released two main factors will drive futures for the next two sessions. One will be positioning ahead of tomorrow’s quarterly stocks and revised acreage numbers. Tomorrow is also month and quarter end which may elevate positioning during today’s session. Once we make it through these events, trade will start to position itself for the July 4th holiday. Typically we see elevated activity for this holiday as in many years crop potential tends to be determined by how good the crop looks at the start of July. While crop conditions have deteriorated since the initial releases, conditions have stabilized and at least some crop stress has been removed.  

Highlights
* Rising consumer prices weigh on demand
* Heat expected to return to Midwest in July
* Canadian drought continues
* US feed demand may decline 
* US inventory still needs rationing
* China shopping for new crop coverage
* Commercials trim long positions
* Stats Canada to update acreage today
* Stocks/Acreage Data tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT
* Tomorrow also FND on July contracts


Corn
* Corn rated 64% G/E
* Weekly sales need to average 57.7 mbu
* Current sales 78% of yearly estimate
* New crop export sales record large
* Chinese crop estimate rising

Soybeans
* Crop rated 60% G/E
* Exports 94% of yearly estimate
* Loadings need to average 13 mbu/wk
* Soy oil volatility builds
* Analysts scaling back on acreage estimates

Wheat
* Winter wheat 48% G/E
* Winter wheat 33% harvested
* Spring wheat just 20% G/E
* Black Sea production rising
* Harvest pressure remains minimal

Livestock
* Yearly beef exports a record 428,000 mt
* Yearly pork exports total 936,800 mt
* 14% of pork sales to China
* Chinese hog values -65% this year
* China will buy pork to support values


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Monday, June 28th, 2021

Nearly all of the activity to start this week will be centered on positioning ahead of Wednesday’s long-awaited USDA reports. The most attention going into this release is on acreage, but the stocks numbers could be the real driver of the market. In the June WASDE report trade was surprised by the increase in soybean stocks given the lower crush estimate. We are also seeing some doubt over soybean exports as loadings have slowed considerably in recent weeks. These are now at a level where yearly exports may fall short of estimates. Trade has also monitored the volume of sales that have taken place in recent weeks. These indicate the US farmer may have been sitting on more inventory than believed. Even if only slightly more than expected it would ease concerns over the lower carryout totals, at least for this year. Trade is still aware of the fact that the US needs large crops to not just satisfy projected demand but allow for a slight build in ending stocks. Any indication that new crop stocks will shrink and buying will resume in the market. This will quickly return market attention to the current growing conditions and weather outlooks soon after Wednesday’s numbers are released.

Highlights
* Heavy weekend rains reported
* US ethanol stocks may keep rising
* River levels in SAM continues to decline
* Global grain stocks to use just 26% 
* World stocks to use at 8 year low
* Russian grain harvest starting
* Analysts believe inflation is understated
* Some forecasts calling for “dome” in early July
* Stocks/Acreage Data on Wednesday
* Wednesday also month/quarter end

Corn
* Analysts scale back acreage forecast
* Acres may increase no more than 2 million
* Feed wheat continues to displace corn
* Interior basis continues to soften
* Ratings expected to hold steady tonight

Soybeans
* All export interest on new crop
* Soy plantings may be surprising
* Weak oil continues to pressure complex
* Break in futures has attracted buyers
* Stocks to use remains supportive

Wheat
* Spring wheat yield expected to be low
* HRW yields high, protein low
* Rains slow US harvest
* EU trims crop estimates
* More wheat used in biofuel production

Livestock
* June 1st COF 100% of last year
* May placements 93% of 2020
* May marketings 123% of last year
* Boxed beef stabilizes
* Pork cutout weaker


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Friday, June 25th, 2021

Most traders now have positions in place ahead of next week’s USDA data, along with month and quarter end. For the most part trade is expecting larger planted acres on both corn and soybeans from the March intentions. This is a grey area for the market though as harvested acres are what will ultimately determine crop size, along with yield per acre. Trade is also trying to determine quarterly stocks and in recent weeks we have seen a shift in attitude that inventories may be larger than suspected given recent selling. Once this data is released trade will quickly revert to field reports on crop conditions and of course weather. The opinion on weather for the Corn Belt is as mixed as anything else at this time. June is going to go down as one of the driest in history, but this impact on final yield is being debated. Most field scouts claim if timely rains develop in July, we can still see trend or better yields, especially on soybeans. This is why futures have not reacted to the dry soil reports as much as hoped for. If drought conditions persist now is when we will start to see more market reaction.  

Highlights
* July options expire today
* Chinese industrial output +8.8% from last year
* Global energy costs a concern
* Labor issues impact Ag manufacturing
* Deferred ethanol margins negative
* Analysts believe stocks to use tighter than USDA indicates
* US restaurant sales above 2019
* US home values up 24% from year ago
* Covid 19 variant raising questions
* Weather forecasts not as wet as yesterday

Corn
* US average basis weakest since April
* China to auction more reserves
* Corn values in China remain record high
* Export demand has slowed
* June 1st stocks down 1 bbu from last year

Soybeans
* Palm Oil -20% in past week
* Rains seen beneficial for Canola crop
* Late wheat harvest may reduce double cropping
* SAM sales under last year, above average
* Brazil soybeans 60 cents/bu under US

Wheat
* Black Sea production -1% this year
* Black Sea exports still up 5%
* Export quotas lifted by Russia, Ukraine
* Buyers passing on high bids
* Kansas wheat 9-11% protein, 60-64 bpa

Livestock
* June 1st hog inventory 75.65 million
* June 1st inventory -2.2% from last year 
* June 1st COF estimate 100% year ago
* May placements est 95% of 2020
* May marketings est 124% of last year


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Thursday, June 24th, 2021

We are starting to see a difference in opinion on current market structure. While there are regions of the world that are suffering from tight commodity inventories, global stocks remain adequate. One that is receiving the most attention is the soybean situation in the United States. The stocks to use on soybeans at the end of this marketing year is predicted at 3% and this only increases to 3.5% next year. These are both at levels that need rationing. Tight soybean inventory is only taking place in the United States however, as global stocks are forecast to increase year to year. Inventories of corn and wheat are also expected to tighten this year but remain adequate. This difference in domestic versus global stocks is pushing buyers away from the US. Another factor that is impacting global trade is transportation costs. Freights rates have started to increase with higher energy product costs and buyers are starting to take this into account when covering needs. As a result some buyers are willing to pay more for coverage if it is offset with lower shipping costs. For today’s session all attention will again fall on weather and the rains that are being received in the dry portions of the Corn Belt.  

Highlights
* US gasoline consumption +10% from year ago
* Most interest in market on next week’s reports
* FND on July contracts is also next Wednesday
* Next Wednesday also brings month/quarter end
* Low waters still a logistic issue in SAM
* Parts of Brazil fully depleted of soil moisture
* Global trade drives ocean freight higher
* Global consumer costs a concern
* Weather focus on corn pollination stage
* July options expire tomorrow


Corn
* Argentine corn $5-$10/mt under US
* Argentine farmer sales ahead of last year
* Corn harvest in Argentina remains slow
* Concerns over Chinese cancellations
* Corn for ethanol likely underestimated

Soybeans
* Crop rating lowest since 2008
* Below trend yield possible
* New crop balance sheets to remain tight
* China buying mostly SAM soybeans
* Argentine crush at 75% of capacity

Wheat
* Spring wheat losses in PNW build
* Dakota’s wheat crop very poor
* Ratings indicate below trend yields
* US wheat quality better than thought
* Russian wheat lower in protein

Livestock
* Quarterly hog/pig inventory today
* June 1st inventory est -2.3% from last year 
* Argentine to limit beef exports
* Boxed beef continues to decline
* Seasonal highs in beef likely made


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Wednesday, June 23rd, 2021

More interest is starting to fall on positioning ahead of the long-awaited June acreage and stocks reports. Ever since the release of the acreage numbers in March we have witnessed disagreement with the figures. This is more so on the corn figure where the USDA pegged planted acres at 91.1 million. Thoughts were this number should have been closer to 94 million. As a result, some analysts are predicting a large increase in the June revisions that will reflect this shortfall. While this is possible, it is not a given. For one, reports indicate that input availability and cost is deterring corn planting. Another s the price spread between corn and soybeans that does not favor corn production. That said, several farmers across the Corn Belt are seeing better marketing opportunities on corn and may opt to seed more acres. There is much less interest on soybean acres with trade expecting a slight increase of maybe 1 million from the March figure of 87.6 million. A factor in the soybean acreage that needs to be considered is how much double cropping we may see once the winter wheat crop is harvested.  

Highlights
* Positioning increase for month end reports
* More interest on acres than stocks
* Grain stocks may be surprising
* Recent selling indicates higher inventories
* More doubt over Chinese imports
* Ukraine grain production up 10 mmt on the year
* Global consumer prices rising
* Chinese consumer prices highest since Sep 2008
* US ethanol exports expected to remain strong
* Brazil currency values firming


Corn
* China auctioning state supplies
* Analysts predict 94 mmt Brazil crop
* Pollination to start across Corn Belt
* China’s corn demand may have peaked
* Doubts over US rating improvement potential

Soybeans
* Brazil soybean exports slowing
* June Brazil exports estimated at 11 mmt
* June Brazil meal exports 1.96 mt
* US yearly exports 93% of estimates
* South Am basis weaker

Wheat
* Winter harvest pressure minimal
* Spring crop continues to deteriorate
* Global stocks to tighten
* China remains active wheat feeder
* France raises export forecast

Livestock
* COF this Friday
* High placements expected 
* Marketings likely up from culling
* US exports of beef/pork remain high
* Grilling demand thought to have peaked    


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Thursday, June 3rd, 2021

When it comes to the current market outlook, much of the concern on production is falling on the Safrinha crop in Brazil. In last month’s supply and demand report the USDA took the Safrinha crop from 109 million metric tons to 102 million metric tons as drought continues to impact the crop. This is below the official 106.4 million metric tons being forecast by the Brazilian firm CONAB. Given the lack of improvement to drought conditions in Brazil this number is likely to keep decreasing. The number being floated through the market is 95 million metric tons for a crop size by the time we get to harvest. A few predictions are even lower and feel the crop will be no larger than 90 million metric tons. While this is possible, it seems like a stretch at this time. The bullish reaction to this possibility is being offset by larger production in other countries, including the United States, Ukraine, and China. If these countries produce corn crops as large as predicted it will temper the losses to the Safrinha crop in Brazil. We also continue to see elevated use of alternative grains to corn, further lessening worries on a short Brazil crop. That said, the market still needs bushels from Brazil, and their loss is still supportive.  

Highlights
* Brazil government to encourage additional acreage
* US plantings now being recounted
* Reports of fungus in saturated US soils
* Chinese commodities under pressure
* Chinese yearly industrial profits +57% in April
* US processing margins remain strong
* Ethanol values highest since March 2014
* Ethanol margins +45 cents, up 15 cents in past week
* Chinese ethanol plants going off-line 
* US crop ratings likely to decline


Corn
* Ethanol production to increase
* Total US demand underestimated
* Ukraine exports to China +2 mmt from last year
* Nearly all new crop exports are to China
* US exports in 2021 estimated to reach $3.2 billion

Soybeans
* Global oilseed values weaken 
* Buyers again surface on breaks
* US crushers push for coverage
* World soy reserves to increase
* Gulf basis under pressure

Wheat
* US harvest pressure building
* Basis weakness to be minimal
* Spring wheat remains stressed
* US new crop export sales total 145.2 mbu 
* New crop sales +30% from last year

Livestock
* JBS plants back online
* Chinese pork values under pressure
* Pork in China at lowest values in 2 years
* China hogs cheapest in world
* US hogs most expensive in world  


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

Morning Comments; Friday, May 28th, 2021

It would not come as a surprise to see elevated trader positioning during today’s session. The markets are closed next Monday in observance of the Memorial Day holiday. Historically it is not uncommon to see weather pattern shifts over the weekend and the added day without being able to change positions makes it more likely we will see squaring today. Weather on a whole will start to become more of a factor in daily price discovery as we transition from the planting season to the growing season. Up to this point dry topsoil conditions have not been a major concern as they allowed for active planting to take place. Now that crops are seeded, we need to start seeing regular rainfall to prevent a loss of production. Current rainfall has been sporadic across the Corn Belt, with several areas receiving decent coverage while others are in desperate need of precipitation. While subsoil moisture is adequate the longer we see limited rainfall the more likely these will start to be depleted as well. Given tight new crop ending stocks estimates we will see more attention on weather outlooks all growing season, along with a likely higher volume of risk premium.

Highlights
* Cold temps in parts of Corn Belt this weekend
* No major crop damage expected
* USDA predicts $7 billion more Ag exports in 2021
* Market losing concerns with tight balance sheets
* US acreage likely higher than March estimates
* US dollar at key support
* Chinese stocks market rallies
* Grounded barges towed out of Argentina
* Initial corn crop rating next Tuesday
* Markets closed Monday for Memorial Day

Corn
* Rains have benefited Brazil crop
* Initial crop rating likely better than average
* Weather favorable for early growth
* Black Sea market weakens
* US ethanol margins continue to firm

Soybeans
* Brazil exporting nearly 850,000 mt per day
* Brazil exports +19.5% from last year
* US loadings need to average 15 mbu/week
* Argentine product getting to ports
* Argentine crush +15% from year ago

Wheat
* Australian crop estimates rising
* EU soft wheat exports -9 mmt from year ago
* US weather improves
* Excess rains causing some quality concerns
* Global wheat market weakens

Livestock
* US pork supply lowest since 2004
* US beef supply also shrinks
* Hog weights in China 2x average
* Weekly beef sales at 27,900 mt
* Weekly pork sales at 45,900 mt  


RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.