News Source: SETZ

Closing Comments; Friday, November 15th, 2018

Corn and soybeans were under pressure much of today’s session. At midday it was reported that President Trump stated that China wants to make a deal and the US may not need to impose any further tariffs. The news gave the soybean complex strength but a technical breakdown in corn futures weren’t enough to bring that commodity into the green.

Export sales for the week ending November 8th were all within trades expectations. Corn sales totaled 35.1 million bushels which was at the highest end of the range, but slightly below the needed amount. Soybean sales totaled 17.3 million bu, which was on the low end of estimates and 12 million shy of the needed amount. Wheat sales totaled 16.1 million bu, also on the low end and below the weekly needed amount.

The USDA reduced soybean export estimates in their last supply and demand report by a large 160 million bu. Some analysts believe that further reductions will be made, and the USDA was conservative because discussions between US and China at the time of the report’s release were beginning. At the same time, Brazil’s soybean exports are estimated to increase by 550 million bu, over the last year.

December corn futures finished today session 2 cents lower at $3.64 , January soybeans closed 3 cents higher at $8.92 and December Chicago wheat closed 1 cents higher at $5.06 .

Weekly Review; Friday November 16th, 2018

Acre Debates Begin

Acreage debates are taking place a little earlier this year than most. There are many estimates circulating about what the US will see for planted acreage this coming year. With the abundance of soybeans in the US, soybean acreage needs to give up production to other commodities. New crop futures values of corn and soybeans are not swaying many decisions either way at current levels. Reports of poor yields on corn following corn acres in some areas coupled with increased input costs indicate values will need to be that much better to incentivize producers to switch acres.

Another factor that will affect acreage decisions this year are wheat values. The new crop July Minneapolis wheat futures have dropped recently and are at the lowest levels seen since July and only a few cents off their contract lows. With November 2019 soybean futures trading around $9.40, it is doubtful acreage will be switched, especially in the Dakotas.

China continues to be a major player in grain futures market action. Last Friday November 9th, China’s top diplomat indicated that they are committed to seeking mutually acceptable solutions to trade issues with the U.S. This comes ahead of the upcoming G20 summit where the Presidents of both countries could meet to work out trade negotiations. US Secretary of State Pompeo has said he hopes to work with China on sanctions with Iran and China has said they are committed to working with the US in non-confrontational ways.

African Swine Fever continues to plague pork production in China as the struggle to contain it continues. Pork imported from China has been found to contain the virus in Tokyo, Japan last week. While it did not pose a risk Japanese pork production, it continues to raise consumer awareness and concern about the spread to neighboring countries.

As harvest is wrapping up in many areas, harvest pressure has diminished and basis has begun to narrow. Corn demand needs the pipeline to keep flowing during this time of year and it is not uncommon for basis narrowing to occur. This is especially true as farmers have put grain away and the calendar moves closer to the end of the year.

The market is slowing starting to focus on weather patterns in South America as planting season is in full swing in Brazil. Soybean planting pace in Brazil is now at a record 71% complete. Heavy rains in Argentina have erased extreme dryness seen in the previous growing season. Now excessive moisture is starting to become a concern as second crop soybeans are harvested there.

Export inspections for the week ending November 8th were within trades estimates for corn, soybeans and wheat. Corn and soybeans were near the high end of expectations coming in at 44.7 million bushels and 47.8 million bushels, respectively. The year to date total on corn is nearly double what it was a year ago. Wheat loadings totaled 12.6 million bu. which was on the light side of the range expected.

A lot of focus is being placed on the ethanol industry currently, crush margins continue to be pressured from many different reasons. The December ethanol futures contract is 30 cents off its mid-summer levels, natural gas prices have shot up from $2.90 cents to $4.40, crude oil values are down 25% in the past six weeks and corn basis has increased. With these headwinds, trade will be monitoring weekly ethanol production levels closely to see if production levels start to decline.

Despite reports of more plants idling and shutting down completely, ethanol production for the week ending November 9th only fell slightly from the prior week. 1.067 million barrels produced each day last week, down 1,000 barrels per day. Stocks jumped by a large 364,000 barrels and stand at 23.51 million.

Export sales for the week ending November 8th were all within trades expectations. Corn sales totaled 35.1 million bushels which was at the highest end of the range, but slightly below the needed amount. Soybean sales totaled 17.3 million bu, which was on the low end of estimates and 12 million shy of the needed amount. Wheat sales totaled 16.1, also on the low end and below the weekly needed amount.

Last week’s reduced corn yield by the USDA has gotten analysts attention. The USDA reduced corn yield by 1.8 bushels per acre. According to a recent FC Stone study, the last time the USDA reduced yield by 1.5 bpa or more in the November report was in 2006. The last six times the USDA reduced corn yield by 1.5 or greater in November, also saw reductions made into the January final report, by an average of 1.5 bpa. Unlike the corn, soybean reductions made in November were only reduced into the January report twice.

China is taking measures to decrease air pollution by increasing ethanol usage. They are aiming to mandate 10% ethanol blended with gasoline by 2020, an increase of 8%. A recent Bloomberg study stated this could hurt an already struggling gasoline sector for the next 2-3 years, as the rise of electric vehicles, bike sharing and ride services has slowed demand growth in that country substantially since 2016. The move is expected increase ethanol demand dramatically. Ethanol capacity is said to expand and import tariffs will remain in place to protect Chinese producers.

For more information, you may contact Mick Hoover at (515)-200-5115, or e-mail at mhoover@maxyieldgrain.com. The opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Mick Hoover. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position. Please visit our Risk Disclosure Page for more information on commodity trading.

Morning Comments; Friday, November 15th, 2018

Corn and soybeans are trading a little lower in the overnight sessioin.

Last week’s reduced corn yield by the USDA has gotten analysts attention. The USDA reduced corn yield by 1.8 bushels per acre. According to a recent FC Stone study, the last time the USDA reduced yield by 1.5 bpa or more in the November report was in 2006. The last six times the USDA reduced corn yield by 1.5 or greater in November, also saw reductions made into the January final report, by an average of 1.5 bpa. Unlike the corn, soybean reductions made in November were only reduced into the January report twice.

Acreage discussions continue to circulate in the market, another factor that will affect acreage decisions this year are wheat values. The new crop July Minneapolis wheat futures have dropped recently and are at the lowest levels seen since July and only cents off their contract lows. With November 2019 soybean futures trading around $9.40, it is doubtful acreage will be switched, especially in the Dakotas.

China is taking measures to decrease air pollution by increasing ethanol usage. They are aiming to mandate 10% ethanol blended with gasoline by 2020, an increase of 8%. A recent Bloomberg study stated this could hurt an already struggling gasoline sector for the next 2-3 years, as the rise of electric vehicles, bike sharing and ride services has slowed demand growth in that country substantially since 2016. The move is expected increase ethanol demand dramatically. Ethanol capacity is said to expand and import tariffs will remain in place to protect Chinese producers.

Market Movers: Trade negotiations, Export sales and fund positioning.

Closing Comments; Thursday, November 15th, 2018

Soybeans were the leader in the overnight session, rallying on news that Chinese officals have formally responded to the Trump administration for the first time since this summer. Showing they are taking steps towards a trade resolution. Support carried into early trade but momentum fell as the day went on, despite record October soybean crush figures released today. Brazilian soybean basis values have fallen sharply in recent weeks on news of US – China trade discussions, bringing to question, US export demand when new crop Brazilian soybeans hit the market.

Informa Economics released their updated planted acreage estimates today. The firm increased their corn acreage figure by 170,000 acres to 92.8 million, which is 3.7 million acres higher than this year. Their soybean estimate also increased from last month to 83.5, up 450,000 acres, but down 5.7 million from this year. Winter wheat acres were decreased by 807,000, to 33.1 million acres.

Despite reports of more plants idling and shutting down completely, ethanol production for the week ending November 9th only fell slightly from the prior week. 1.067 million barrels produced each day last week, down 1,000 barrels per day. Stocks jumped by a large 364,000 barrels and stand at 23.51 million.

December corn futures finished today’s session up cent at $3.67 , January soybeans closed 5 cents higher at $8.88 and December Chicago wheat closed 2 cents higher at $5.05 .

Morning Comments; Thursday, November 15th, 2018

Corn and soybeans are trading higher in the overnight session.

A lot of focus is being placed on the ethanol industry currently, crush margins continue to be pressured from many different reasons. The December ethanol futures contract is 30 cents off its mid-summer levels, natural gas prices have shot up from $2.90 cents to $4.40, crude oil values are down 25% in the past six weeks and corn basis has increased. With these headwinds, trade will be monitoring weekly ethanol reports closely to see if production levels start to decline.

Acreage debates are taking place a little earlier this year than most. There are many estimates circulating about what the US will see for planted acreage this coming year. With the abundance of soybeans in the US, soybean acreage needs to give up production to other commodities. New crop futures values of corn and soybeans are not swaying many decisions either way at current levels. Reports of poor yields on corn following corn acres in some areas coupled with increased input costs indicate values will need to be that much better to incentivize producers to switch acres.

It was reported earlier this year that China is taking measures to reduce protein usage in their country, last month it was reported they cleared the way for rapeseed imports and increased other sources. Speculation remained though as it was unclear whether users would comply, as worries of decreased efficiency grew. It was reported this week that China’s largest hog producer Wens Foodstuffs will follow guidelines in their rations.

Market Movers: Technical indicators, NOPA Crush and Trade Negotiations.

Closing Comments; Wednesday, November 14th, 2018

There have been reports of vomitoxin being found in corn this year in the thumb part of Michigan. Vomitoxin has been very prevalent in fields that suffered from drought conditions during pollination in July. The levels are varying between three parts-per-million to more than 15, while some elevators are discounting bushels between 5 to 35 cents per bushel on loads containing over six parts-per-million.

Crude rose about 2% today, recouping some of the previous selloff due to the growing prospect that producers could be cutting output to drive up the market. U.S. crude oil output from its seven major shale basins is expected to hit a record 7.94 million barrels per day in December. The surge in onshore output has helped U.S. crude hit a record in overall production of 11.6 million bpd, making the U.S. the world’s biggest oil producer ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia. Analysts expect output in the U.S. to climb above 12 million bpd in the first half of 2019.

December Corn ended the day up cent at $3.67. January Soybeans finished up 5 cents at $8.83 . December Chicago Wheat closed down 4 cents at $5.03.

For more information, you may contact Kristi Guse at (712)-260-6486, or e-mail at kguse@maxyieldgrain.com. The opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Kristi Guse. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position. Please visit our Risk Disclosure Page for more information on commodity trading.

Morning Comments; Wednesday, November 14th, 2018

Corn is trading steady, while soybeans are steady to higher on the overnight trade.

Harvest progress was released yesterday afternoon, with corn being 84% harvested, up 8% from last week. Soybeans were at 88% harvested, up 5% from a week ago but still down 5% from last year and the 5-year average.

Exports inspections for the week ending November 8th improved for both soybeans and wheat but was slightly lower on the corn. Corn inspections totaled 44.7 million bu, which makes the total to date almost double what it was a year ago. Soybeans were slightly higher than a week ago at 47.8 million bu but still below loadings this time last year.

Market Movers; Trade negotiations, weather, and fund activity

For more information, you may contact Kristi Guse at (712)-260-6486, or e-mail at kguse@maxyieldgrain.com. The opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Kristi Guse. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position. Please visit our Risk Disclosure Page for more information on commodity trading.

Closing Comments; Tuesday, November 13th, 2018

Oil prices were in free fall today as thoughts of supply could overwhelm demand the next following year. Crude oil futures for December fell roughly 7 percent in the US. Today’s close in the red would mark the 12th consecutive decline, which would break the previous record of 11 straight consecutive daily loss since 1983 according to Dow Jones Market Data. Industry analyst believed the sudden oversupply came from the predicted decline of Iranian oil production that came with renewed oil sanctions. Officials close to the matter stated that other OPEC countries have actually increased output leading to a sudden surge in supply.

The oversupply of soybeans has many questioning basis implications as we move into the winter months and looking forward to next spring and summer. Current stocks to use ratio is pegged at 23% and does not paint a rosy picture for soybean prices moving forward. The cash market will have to do the heavy lifting, as progress on a trade deal seems to be moving sideways. A sense of urgency for US soybean exports seems to be in order as we get closer to South American harvest.

December corn closed down 5 cents at $3.66. January soybeans closed down 5 cents at $8.78 . December Chicago wheat finished the day down 13 cents at $5.06 .

For more information, you may contact Brock Beadle at 515-341-7040, or e-mail at bbeadle@maxyieldgrain.com. The opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Brock Beadle. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position.

Morning Comments; Tuesday, November 13th, 2018

Grains are trading mixed on the overnight session.

Harvest progress and export inspections are delayed until today in observance of the Veteran’s Day Holiday on Monday. Harvest progress at this point is mute as the end of harvest draws out with weather delays across the board.

As harvest is wrapping up in many areas, harvest pressure has diminished and basis has begun to narrow. Corn demand needs the pipeline to keep flowing during this time of year and it is not uncommon for basis narrowing to occur. This is especially true as farmers have put grain away and the calendar moves closer to the end of the calendar year.

The market is slowing starting to focus on weather patterns in South America as planting season is in full swing in Brazil. Soybean planting pace in Brazil is now at a record 71% complete. Heavy rains in Argentina have erased extreme dryness seen in the previous growing season. Now excessive moisture is starting to become a concern as second crop soybeans are harvested there.

Market movers: Trade negotiations and weather forecasts.

For more information, you may contact Adam Suntken at (712)-454-1061, or e-mail at asuntken@maxyieldcooperative.com. The opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Adam Suntken. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position. Please visit our Risk Disclosure Page for more information on commodity trading.

Closing Comments; Monday, November 11th, 2018

African Swine fever has continued to spread across provinces in China. As of last week, 6 new cases have been confirmed. Earlier today, a feed mill in China reported that the virus has been found in one of its mills. Buyers of feed and ingredients are increasingly concerned over the fact that African swine fever has now been found in these products. Industry officials are forced to adjust their scope of how widespread this virus can move. Until now, many have speculated that the virus has been moving in feed ingredients, but without any definitive proof.

Specific regions of China where demand for pork is the greatest are starting to see food inflation. It has been reported that these areas are experiencing a 10-15% percent increase in hog prices. It has been widely known fact that demand for pork in China is expected to follow a steady incline as more people enter the middle class every year. Simply put, a bigger middle class translates to a larger demand base for protein.

January soybeans closed down 3 cents at $8.83 . December corn finished the day up 1 cents at $3.71 . December Chicago wheat closed up 16 cents at $5.18 .

For more information, you may contact Brock Beadle at 515-341-7040, or e-mail at bbeadle@maxyieldgrain.com. The opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Brock Beadle. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position.

Morning Comments; Monday, November 12th, 2018

Grains are trading mixed on the overnight session.

China continues to be a major player in grain futures market action in multiple facets lately. On Friday, China’s top diplomat indicated that China is committed to seeking mutually acceptable solutions to trade issues with the U.S. This comes ahead of the upcoming G20 summit where the Presidents of both countries could meet to work out trade negotiations. US Secretary of State Pompeo has said he hopes to work with China on sanctions with Iran and China has said it is committed to working with the US in non-confrontational ways.

China’s revision to the past 10 years corn production and stocks numbers is being digested in the corn pit. While nothing in terms of production or carryout changed according to private traders, it is now on paper for all to see when it comes to USDA reporting of world stocks numbers.

African Swine Fever continues to plague pork production in China as the struggle to contain it continues. Pork imported from China has been found to contain the virus in Tokyo, Japan last week. While it did not pose a risk Japanese pork production, it continues to raise consumer awareness and concern about the spread to neighboring countries.

Market movers: Trade negotiations and weather forecasts.

For more information, you may contact Adam Suntken at (712)-454-1061, or e-mail at asuntken@maxyieldcooperative.com. The opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Adam Suntken. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position. Please visit our Risk Disclosure Page for more information on commodity trading.

Weekend Review; Friday, November 9th, 2018

Weekly Market Review

Harvest progress released Monday afternoon for the week ending November 2nd, showed corn harvest at 76% completed. This was 1% behind the 5-year average and up 13% on the week. Soybean harvest was reported at 83% complete, 6% behind the average and up from 72% last week. The only state lagging last year was North Dakota, still 7% behind last year for corn harvest. There are several states lagging about 5% behind the 5-year average, including Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas. South and North Dakota both lag more than 10% behind the 5-year average.

Ethanol margins have made no significant progress lately. Both small and large plants are losing money when you include taxes and depreciation. Conestoga Energy Holdings, LLC is temporarily halting production at its Diamond Ethanol location located in Levelland, Texas. The company’s CEO commented, “The domestic ethanol market is currently out of balance, with more supply than demand. While year to date exports have been robust, they are struggling to keep up with current increased production.” This is a re-occurring theme heard throughout the industry. Moving forward, without any material changes, we could potentially see more ethanol plants lowering production rates, or possibly sitting idle.

The USDA released some of their baseline projections for the upcoming years recently. For this coming year, they are projecting corn acres at 92 million, which is up 2.9 million from this past year. Soybean acres were estimated at 82.5 million, which is a large 6.6 million acre reduction from last year. All wheat acres are estimated at 51 million, up 3.2 million. These figures are far from concrete and many unknown factors will ultimately influence what producers decide to plant. On March 31st, the USDA will release producer surveyed planting intentions.

The USDA released the November supply and demand report on Thursday, November 8th. There were little if any surprises as it came in at or below trade guess with the exception of soybean ending stocks, which were higher than expected. UDSA released lower than expected production outlooks for both corn and soybeans. Corn came in at 14.626 billion bushels, down 1% from October, with an average yield of 178.9 bushels/acre. This was 1.8 bushels/acre less than the previous month, while harvested area remained steady at 81.767 million acres. Corn yield dropped almost double, what the trade expected. Many key corn states saw sizeable decreases such as 6 bushel/acre in Iowa and South Dakota, and 7 bushel/acre in Minnesota.

Soybeans were pegged around 4.6 billion bushels, 2% lower than the previous month, with the average yield at 52.1 bushels/acre. This was down a bushel from last month, while harvested area was slightly lower than in the October report at 88.3 million acres. As for soybean yields, Iowa and Kentucky both dropped 3 bushels, Illinois 2 bushels, while Michigan, Nebraska, Missouri, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin all down 1 bushel/acre.

Traders are now scratching their heads as to what yield numbers the final report in January will tell us. History tells us that in most cases, if there is an increase or decrease in yield from October to November, the November to January change will be in the same direction. More so the case for soybeans.

The big adjustment came in the form of world stocks numbers. Earlier this week Chinese officials revised their stocks numbers for the previous ten years, revealing a larger world grain stocks. Each of those ten years, production was underestimated. Private trading companies talked about higher Chinese stocks from the Chinese government reserve program, but the USDA has not recognized those bushels in the past on their world balance sheets. This reserve program quietly grew to as much as 250 million metric tons. Many did not expect the USDA to act as quickly as it did to revise those numbers. With those revisions, the world corn carryout numbers nearly doubled from 159.4 million metric tons to 307.5 million metric tons for the 18/19 marketing year. The news hit the corn market relatively softly as corn futures closed up slightly for the day Thursday after the report.

With the mid-term congressional elections behind us, there is hope Congress will take some action on the pending farm bill during the “lame duck” period before the end of the year. With two opposing parties, one controlling the House and the other the Senate, it is possible little to any change will be made to 80% of the farm bill comprising of the welfare program. Welfare reform and financial responsibly was an issue holding up Democrat support of the bill. Democrats in the past have favored more spending, conservation and not restricting welfare programs.

For more information, you may contact Adam Suntken at (712)-454-1061, or e-mail at asuntken@maxyieldcooperative.com. The opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Adam Suntken. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position. Please visit our Risk Disclosure Page for more information on commodity trading.

Closing Comments; Wednesday, October 7th, 2018

As of this morning, a leading statistics bureau for the Chinese government has increased total estimated corn output for China’s 2017 crop. The bureau is quoted as revising the total output 20% higher than they previously had reported. Last year’s crop was reported at 215.9 million metric tons. This 20 percent increase equates to a new total of 259 million metric tons. A sharp jump in planted acres combined with a slightly better yield led to this increase. This has caught many by surprise as most thought China would eventually become a corn importer in the next few years when you consider they are in the early stages of their ethanol expansion.

With the monthly supply and demand report out tomorrow, trade is looking to see if any major adjustments will be made to the balance sheets. The average trade guess on corn yield is down 7 tenths from October at 180 bpa. Soybeans average trade guess is down 3 tenths from the October report at 52.9 bpa. Choppy trade is expected tomorrow as everyone gets pre-report positions in place. Surprises aren’t expected but surprises usually strike when trade least expects it.

December corn closed down 1 cent at $3.72 . November Soybeans finished down 4 cents at $8.67 . December Chicago Wheat closed down 2 cents at $5.09 .

For more information, you may contact Brock Beadle at 515-341-7040, or e-mail at bbeadle@maxyieldgrain.com. The opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Brock Beadle. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position.

Closing Comments; Friday, November 2nd, 2018

The overnight strength seen in the soybean complex attempted to follow through to into today’s session but was met with resistance. The fact that negotiations with China are in the very beginning stages has limited further buying. Corn futures were supported by decreased production estimates released recently by private firms.

Informa released their November crop estimates this mornings, they reduced their corn yield by a large 2.4 bushels per acre from their October estimate, at 182.1. Their production estimate is for 14.7 billion bu versus 14.9 billion bu in October. For soybeans, they also decreased yield. Their soybean estimate was much less extreme, they decreased yield less than a half a bushel at 52.6 bpa.

FC Stone also released their production estimates this week. Their corn yield estimate is at 181.4 bpa, down 1.3 from their October release. Their soybean estimate was also below their October figure at 53.2 bpa, which was down .8. Their corn and soybean production figures now stand at 14.8 billion bu and 4.7 billion bu, respectively.

December corn futures finished today’s session 4 cents higher at $3.71 , November soybeans closed 6 cents higher at $8.75 , and December Chicago wheat closed cents higher at 5.08 .

Weekly Review; Friday, November 2nd, 2018

Ukraine Corn Capturing Export Market

Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue announced on Friday there would likely be a second Market Facilitation Program payment in December. He went on to say the payments would not vary by region and that producers should not expect a program payment in 2019. Perdue stated that producers should adjust production according to market signals.

The African Swine Fever spread continues in China as it was reported in the Guizhoz province on Friday. US production officials are looking at safeguards to prevent the spread into the US via imported feedstuffs. While the virus is not harmful to humans, Chinese consumer demand for pork is dropping similar to when the US outbreak of hoof and mouth occurred. The virus can be spread to other swine from infected meat products. China has refused to look to the US to supplement pork supplies as the tariff war continues.

Export loadings for the week ending October 25th, totaled 25.7 million bu. for corn. Well below the 48.6 million bu needed to reach the USDA forecast. Current corn shipments are still running 69% ahead of last year. Soybean inspections came in at 47.9 million bu., which was above the highest range of trade’s expectations, yet 185 million below last year. Wheat loadings totaled 14.4 million bu, right in line with expectations.

Harvest progress released Monday October 29th, showed corn harvest at 63% complete, in line with the trade expectations. This is up 14% from last week, 11% ahead of last year and at the 5-year average. Soybean harvest progress is 72% complete, up a large 19% from last week, and 2% over what the trade was expecting. While good progress was made, soybean harvest is still lagging last year and the 5-year average, both at 81%.

Ethanol manufacturing for the week ending October 26th was released Wednesday October 31st, it showed an increase in production of 35,000 barrels per day coming in at 1.059 million barrels, with the Midwest still producing the largest amount. Ethanol stocks showed a large decrease of a little over 1.1 million barrels, which was the largest drop in stocks since 2010. Stocks were reported at 22.7 million barrels.

The Ukraine Grain Association recently increased the size of their corn crop estimate to 35 MMT. The USDA’s latest estimate was for 31 MMT. Some sources believe the latest increase by the Ukraine Grain Association is the first of more to come.

US export corn sales have been struggling in recent weeks, currently US corn values are being undercut by Ukraine and Brazil corn. Ukraine harvest is moving along quickly at 68% complete, versus last year’s pace of 52%. The favorable pricing has showed up in their export sales, at 2.5 MMT, which is 56% higher than last year.

With the competitiveness of Ukraine corn, some feel the USDA may decrease export demand in upcoming reports. Not everyone is in agreement as reports of logistic concerns in Ukraine have been surfacing recently.

Not only has cheap Ukraine corn been hindering US corn exports but it’s also being blamed for shortfalls to US milo demand. Current milo sales are reported at 8 million bu., versus last year’s 59 million bushel total. Analysts believe sales will increase as the smaller European Union corn crop could bring Mexico and the EU to the market.

Export sales released November 1st, for the week ending October 25th were below expectations for corn and soybeans and slightly higher for wheat. Corn sales totaled 15.5 million bu, which was higher than last week’s figure but well below the total needed to reach the USDA’s estimate. Soybean sales totaled 14.5 million bu, which was also above last week, yet below the weekly amount needed. Wheat sales totaled 21.4 million bu, which exceeded last week and the needed total to reach the USDA’s forecast.

An announcement by President Trump Thursday morning sent the soybean market surging higher. According to Trump, he and Chinese President Xi recently had a very good conversation regarding many subjects, including trade. The on again, off again, G-20 discussions between the two are scheduled to take place and for now a positive tone is set. Many traders will have their eyes glued to their twitter accounts for further developments.

For the month of October, the spot December corn contract gained 4 cents, the spot November soybean contract lost 7 cents and fell from the mid-month high by 53 cents. Chicago December wheat closed out the month with a loss of 12 cents. Interior basis values are for corn and soybeans have improved as harvest is wrapping up in many areas.

For more information, you may contact Mick Hoover at (515)-200-5115, or e-mail at mhoover@maxyieldgrain.com. The opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Mick Hoover. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position. Please visit our Risk Disclosure Page for more information on commodity trading.

Morning Comments; Friday, Novermber 2nd, 2018

Corn is trading slightly higher, while soybeans are up sharply in the overnight session.

The Ukraine Grain Association recently increased the size of their corn crop to 35 MMT. The USDA’s latest estimate was for 31 MMT. Some sources believe the latest increase by the Ukraine Grain Association is the first of more to come.

US corn export sales have been struggling in recent weeks, currently US corn values are being undercut by Ukraine and Brazil corn. Ukraine harvest is moving along quickly at 68% complete, versus last year’s pace of 52%. The favorable pricing has showed up in their export sales, at 2.5 MMT, which is 56% higher than last year. With the competitiveness of Ukraine corn, some feel the USDA may decrease export demand in upcoming reports. Not everyone is in agreement as reports of logistic concerns have been surfacing recently.

Not only has cheap Ukraine corn been hindering US corn exports but it’s also being blamed for shortfalls to US milo demand. Current milo sales are reported at 8 million bu., versus last year’s 59 million bushel total at this time. Analysts believe sales will increase as the smaller European Union corn crop could bring Mexico and the EU to the market.

Market Movers: Fund activity, further trade discussions, and technical indicators.

Morning Comments; Thursday, Novermber 1st, 2018

Corn and soybean futures are trading mixed in the overnight session.

Weather in Brazil has been nearly ideal, leading many to believe another large soybean crop could be in progress. Exceptional demand has led to expanded sowings in that country, sources reported that 36.12 million hectares or 89.3 million acres are estimated to be planted. The United States planted an estimated 89.1 million acres this past year.

For the month of October, the spot December corn contract gained 4 cents, the spot November soybean contract lost 7 cents and fell from the mid-month high by 53 cents. Chicago December wheat closed out the month with a loss of 12 cents. Interior basis values are for corn and soybeans have improved as harvest is wrapping up in many areas.

The NASS announced they will be resurveying production areas that were thought to be affected by hurricane Michael. Several crops including soybeans and cotton will be examined, the states of South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida will be the main focus. If results warrant, adjustments will be included in the upcoming November 8th, USDA supply and demand report.

Market Movers; Export sales, fund activity and technical indicators.

Closing Comments; Wednesday, October 31st, 2018

Ethanol manufacturing for the week ending October 26th was released today. Showing an increase in production of 35,000 barrels per day coming in at 1.059 million barrels, with the Midwest still producing the largest amount. Ethanol stocks showed a decrease of a little over 1.1 million barrels coming in around 22.7 million barrels, with the Midwest’s reserves decreasing 407,000 barrels.

China is looking to reduce their soybean imports from Nov to Jan by 11 million metric tons from last year. The country is looking to buy more vegetable oils and alternative meals for animal feed. The “suggested” changes in rations are to include more corn and lysine, which is expected to reduce soymeal usage.

December Corn finished down 1 at $3.63 . November Soybeans closed the day up 5 at $8.39. December Chicago Wheat closed up at $ 5.00 .

For more information, you may contact Kristi Guse at (712)-260-6486, or e-mail at kguse@maxyieldgrain.com. The opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Kristi Guse. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position. Please visit our Risk Disclosure Page for more information on commodity trading.

Morning Comment; Wednesday, October 31st, 2018

Corn is steady to lower while Soybeans are steady a little higher on the overnights.

Sources state that the U.S. is preparing to announce by early December, that new tariffs on all remaining Chinese imports could be put in place if talks next month between President Trump and the Chinese president fail to ease the trade war. An early-December announcement on new tariffs would mean an effective date around China’s Lunar New Year holiday in early February. The tariffs would cover items not previously included and could amount to $257 billion. No final decisions on the possible new tariffs are made but U.S. officials are preparing in case the planned talk between President Trump and China’s president does not yield progress at the G20 Summit in November. Since this announcement indicates a willingness to escalate the trade war with China, the stocks have erased gains partly on concern of the growing trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

Soybean planting in Brazil is off at a record pace in many areas of the country, meaning soybeans will be available for export at the end of January. Analyst are saying that Brazil’s soybean acres will not increase as much as previously thought due to the truckers’ strike that slowed those expansion plans. The truckers strike resulted in a new freight schedule and changed the dynamic by making it more expensive to haul the soybeans, which in turn makes it more expensive to haul the crop inputs needed to put the crop in the ground. It is estimated that Brazil’s soybean acres will increase around 2%-2 %, which is about half of the original prediction.

For more information, you may contact Kristi Guse at (712)-260-6486, or e-mail at kguse@maxyieldgrain.com. The opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Kristi Guse. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position. Please visit our Risk Disclosure Page for more information on commodity trading.

Closing Comments; Tuesday, October 30th, 2018

Last Friday, the China Feed Industry Association lowered the standard protein content in feed fed to chickens and hogs. These cuts amount to roughly 11 million tons of soybean meal and 14 million tons of soybeans. This comes at a point where the US is typically exporting the largest amount of soybeans for the year. The new standards lowered protein levels in pig feed by 1.5 percentage point and 1 percent in chicken feed. It is unknown whether the Chinese pork and poultry producer will follow these new standards. Officials close to the matter argue that the Chinese government is trying to influence the amount of soybean products used in feed.

The argument can be made that the US will see a large increase in corn acres in the next growing season. Seed companies have been quoted that corn seed sales are running 10-15 percent ahead of soybeans. That being said, diminishing profit margins the past few years are forcing the farmer and lender to take a closer look at their rotations. Areas where corn and soybeans are not the traditional crop are taking a closer look at the possibility of adding wheat and cotton into the rotation again.

November soybeans finished down 5 cents at $8.33 . December corn closed down 2 cents at #3.64 . December Chicago wheat closed down $4.99 .

For more information, you may contact Brock Beadle at 515-341-7040, or e-mail at bbeadle@maxyieldgrain.com. The opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Brock Beadle. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position.

Morning Comments; Tuesday, October 30th, 2018

Grains are trading mixed on the overnight session.

Harvest progress released yesterday showed corn harvest at 63% complete, in line with the trade expectations. This is up 14% from last week, 11% ahead of last year and at the 5-year average. Soybean harvest progress is 72% complete, up a whopping 19% from last week, and 2% over what the trade was expecting. While good progress was made, soybean harvest is still lagging last year and the 5-year average, both at 81%.

The trade situation with China remains uncertain as another round of tariffs is being discussed for implantation in December. This is just following the G20 summit where the U.S. and Chinese Presidents will attend. This comes as China has announced it will reduce protein levels in hog and poultry feed to reduce protein demand as it attempts to shift away from soy protein sources. China continues their embargo of US soybeans even though US soybean values delivered to China are 22% lower than Brazil, even with the 25% tariff added in.

Secretary of Agriculture Perdue announced late Monday that there would be a second round of Market Facilitation Payments in December. There is no word on rates per commodity other than it would apply to soybeans, cotton, pork, dairy, sorghum, wheat and corn.

Market movers: Trade negotiations, weather forecasts and yield updates.

For more information, you may contact Adam Suntken at (712)-454-1061, or e-mail at asuntken@maxyieldcooperative.com. The opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Adam Suntken. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position. Please visit our Risk Disclosure Page for more information on commodity trading.

Closing Comments; Monday, October 29th, 2018

A far right lawmaker and former Army captain has been elected president of Brazil by earning 55.2% of the vote. Bolsonaro pledge to fight crime and rampant corruption has pushed Brazilians to re-examine the role that government has in private affairs. The past four years, Brazilian politics has been under scrutiny over large corruption charges that have rocked the previous administration. Bolsonaro has been quoted that he wanted to shift foreign policy to better reflect Brazilian values. China has been under fire for having buying up energy and infrastructure sectors inside the country of Brazil.

With soybean harvest on the home stretch, trade is keeping a closer eye on corn harvest and the pace we will finish. A couple of tenths of rain was reported over the weekend with some areas receiving closer to a half inch. The 7 day forecast is showing a good stretch of sunny weather with flurries and the possibility of freezing rain going into the weekend.

December corn finished down 1 cent at $3.66 . November soybeans closed down 6 cents $8.39. December Chicago wheat closed up 1 cents at $5.06 .

For more information, you may contact Brock Beadle at 515-341-7040, or e-mail at bbeadle@maxyieldgrain.com. The opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Brock Beadle. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position.

Morning Comments; Monday, October 29th, 2018

Grains are trading higher on the overnight session.

Secretary of Agriculture Perdue announced on Friday that there would likely be a second Market Facilitation Program payment in December. He went on to say the payments would not vary by region and that producers should not expect a program payment in 2019. Perdue stated that producers should adjust production according to market signals.

The African Swine Fever spread continues in China as it was reported in the Guizhoz province on Friday. US production officials are looking at safeguards to prevent the spread into the US via imported feedstuffs. While the virus is not harmful to humans, Chinese consumer demand for pork is dropping similar to when the US outbreak of hoof and mouth occurred. The virus can be spread to other swine from infected meat products. China has refused to look to the US to supplement pork supplies as the tariff war continues.

Harvest progress looks to be up against a wet weather pattern again as we move into November. Basis values have likely seen their peak of harvest pressure and could begin to strengthen if harvest is drawn out by the weather. Some in the industry has said this seems like the longest harvest period they can remember.

Market movers: Trade negotiations, weather forecasts and yield updates.

For more information, you may contact Adam Suntken at (712)-454-1061, or e-mail at asuntken@maxyieldcooperative.com. The opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Adam Suntken. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position. Please visit our Risk Disclosure Page for more information on commodity trading.

Closing Comments; Friday, October 26h, 2018

Corn, soybeans and wheat gained back some of yesterday’s losses in today’s session. Wheat led the way today, after falling to the lowest levels since January in yesterday’s trade. Each complex was oversold, so today’s action wasn’t overly surprising to trade.

The absence of China’s export business continues to consume much of the markets attention. A news sources recently reported that during the month of September, China imported 30% of their food and agriculture products from Brazil, valued at an estimated $3.6 billion. The United States imports to China for the same time accounted for 5% and around $625 million.

In September, the Argentine government implemented a new export tax in which corn exports will be taxed roughly 10.5%. This new tax has lead the USDA to cut the export estimate for that country. It was originally believed that corn acreage in the country would diminish, but since the inputs had already been purchased prior to the announcement, little changes are expected. The new tax on soybeans is only expected to increase 3%.

December corn futures finished today’s session 6 cents higher at $3.67 , November soybeans closed 3 cents higher at $8.45, and December Chicago wheat rallied 18 cents to finish at $5.05 .

Weekly Review; Friday, October 26th, 2018

China’s Absence from US Markets Continues

The absence of China’s export business continues to consume much of the markets attention. A news sources recently reported that during the month of September, China imported 30% of their food and agriculture products from Brazil, valued at an estimated at $3.6 billion. United States imports to China for the same time accounted for 5% and around $625 million.

China’s soybean imports are set to drop about 25% in the next three months, their biggest fall in at least 12 years as buyers curb purchases amid the trade war and high domestic stockpiles. In July, China implemented a retaliatory 25% import duty on US soybeans sparking more conflict on the trade, which has since gathered steam with the introduction of fresh tariffs of other products. China buys about 60% of the oilseed traded worldwide, making them the world’s largest buyer. China’s purchases will mainly be from Brazil, Argentina and Canada and average around 6 million tonnes per month on imports in the fourth quarter. Currently, the landed cost of US beans in China is similar to Brazilian soybeans even including the 25% tariff, however Chinese crushers are reluctant to take US supply as they fear authorities may not approve cargoes or tariffs could increase.

Two previous soybean sales to China were cancelled last week pushing soybeans lower to close the late last week. This was not a surprise to most, but the market took it as bearish news with nothing to support it. Looking at year to date sales, US soybean export sales are lagging 21%. While shipments to China are down by 80%, shipments to other destinations are up 50 million bushels, or 40%.

Harvest progress released Monday October 22nd, was at 49% complete for corn. This is up 10% from the previous week and 2% ahead of the 5-year average. This was also 12% ahead of this week a year ago. Soybean harvest was at 53% complete, a 15% increase from last week. Soybean harvest is 14% behind a year ago and 16% behind the 5-year average.

Export inspections for the week ending October 18th, released Monday, showed soybeans are still down about 40% from this time last year. Soybean loadings totaled 42.2 million bu., down 2.3 million bu from the previous week. Corn still remains well ahead of the anticipated pace coming in at 37.4 million bu, down 2.4 million bu. from a week ago, however it 12 million bu. higher than a year ago.

African swine fever continues to spread thru China and appears to be accelerating. Two new cases were reported Monday night in a central region, which makes a total of 5 new cases this week and totaling over 40 reported cases. It’s suspected there are dozens of cases that haven’t been reported yet, some sources claiming the official numbers could be 10 times higher. Reports state that due to the disease around 200,000 pigs have been culled. The disease is spreading from the Northeast to the Southwest part of the country, moving towards and into major pork producing regions. It has also been reported that Japan found the virus in sausage packaged from China.

President Trump and China’s President will meet at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires to discuss the trade dispute between the two countries. Larry Kudlow, the National Economic Council Director, stated that the U.S. “asks are on the table” and the two leaders “will meet for a bit”. He also cautioned that he does not expect any major breakthroughs to be achieved but a broad agreement would be welcomed. The trade dispute is weighing on both countries markets, the benchmark Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index fell last week to its lowest level in four years due to trade tensions and concerns about economic slowdown.

The USDA has issued a statement regarding damaged soybeans that may be eligible for quality adjustments, if soybeans do not meet grade requirements for US number 4 soybeans. Soybeans that have kernel damage greater than 8 percent, will qualify for a quality adjustment in accordance with the Risk Management Agency’s special provisions of insurance. Soybeans may also qualify for Zero Market Value, if there are no willing buyers available to purchase the damaged production. If there is no salvage market found for damaged production, the Insurer’s provider can apply Zero Market Value procedures to calculate a Loss Adjustment.

Despite the lowest margins in the past 5 years, ethanol production for the week ending October 19th increased from the prior week. An average of 1.024 million barrels per day were produced each day last week, up 13,000 from the prior week. Ethanol stocks decreased 233,000 barrels and still record large at 23.89 million barrels. Trade will continue to keep a close eye on margin calculations especially with the seasonality of corn basis coming into a much greater role moving forward.

Soybean planting continues at a record pace in Brazil, it is estimated they have seeded 34% of their expected acres vs. 20% last year at this time and nearly double the average of 18%. It is expected that these early bushels will be in high demand by both the export market and crushers, as supplies there are expected to marginal.

Export sales for last week were below expectations for corn and soybeans. Corn sales totaled 13.8 million bu., expectations were for sales to be between 16 and 31 million bu. Soybeans sales totaled 7.8 million bu., expectations were for 11-26 million bu. Wheat sales were on the high end of the expected range of 7-18 million bu., at 16.3 million bu.

For more information, you may contact Mick Hoover at (515)-200-5115, or e-mail at mhoover@maxyieldgrain.com. The opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Mick Hoover. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position. Please visit our Risk Disclosure Page for more information on commodity trading.

Morning Comments; Friday, October 26th, 2018

Corn and soybeans are higher this morning.

Elections will take place Sunday in Brazil to determine their next president, currently the front runner is Jair Bolsonaro, a conservative congressman. If he is elected, the impact to the US markets was originally believed to be bullish, as his policies would push for a stronger currency. Now, some are questioning whether that will be the case, as he has been quoted say that the environmental policies are “suffocating the country”. Leading some believe that more acres will be cleared for grain and livestock production.

Despite China’s massive investments in Brazil, Bolsonaro is not an advocate of China’s business practices. Candidate Bolsonaro has labeled China as a predator only looking for enrichment. Given his outlook, some are questioning what effect it will have on relations with China, if he’s elected.

Global corn export sales were reported mid-week, the sales were reported as option origin for December through February shipment. At the current values these sales are likely to be shipped from either Brazil or Ukraine. Ukraine values remain under pressure, taking away US corn business, leading some analysts to reduce their US export estimate.

Market Movers; technical indicators, fund attitude & outside markets.

Closing Comments; Thursday, October 25th, 2018

Corn, soybeans and wheat opened lower and continued to slide as the day progressed. Spot corn futures fell below its 50 day moving average and soybeans broke below its 200 day moving average. The technical selloff, coupled with poor export sales and harvest pressure lead to today’s decline.

Export sales for last week were below expectations for corn and soybeans. Corn sales totaled 13.8 million bu., expectations were for sales to be between 16 and 31 million bu. Soybeans sales totaled 7.8 million bu., expectations were for 11-26 million bu. Wheat sales were on the high end of the expected range of 7-18 million bu., at 16.3 million bu.

The USDA has the current domestic soybean stocks-to-use ratio at 20.7%, the highest level seen since the 1986-1987 marketing year. Since May, the USDA has estimated soybean exports declining 230 million bu. and production up a large 410 million bu. The current world soybean stocks-to-use is also expected to reach that largest levels seen in many years as well, at 31.2%. The large increase to the world numbers is being attributed to the large year-over-year increase in production for Argentina and Brazil, estimated to be 731 million bu. higher than last year’s production.

December corn futures finished today’s session 6 cents lower at $3.61 , November soybeans closed 6 cents lower at $8.43 and December Chicago wheat fell 13 cents finishing at $4.86 .

Morning Comments; Thursday, October 25th, 2018

Corn and soybeans are trading weaker this morning.

China recently announced that they have cleared the way to import rapeseed from India. China has been very vocal about their plan to reduce protein usage. The latest development is expected to have very little impact on soybean usage, as India usually exports less than 1 mmt to all destinations annually.

Speculation continues on what China’s actual soybean import figure from the US will be this year. Some sources believe with the early and rapid planting in Brazil, imports could take place in December, possibly cutting the US soybeans out completely. Other sources feel the gap will not be able to be filled without US imports. Although it is early in the marketing year, the slow pace has many expecting the USDA to reduce their export figure in upcoming reports.

Soybean planting continues at a record pace in Brazil, it is estimated they have seeded 34% of their expected acres vs. 20% last year at this time and nearly double the average of 18%. It is expected that these early bushels will be in high demand by both the export market and crushers, as supplies there are expected to marginal.

Market Movers: Export sales, outside markets and fund activity.

Morning Comments: Wednesday, October 24th, 2018

Soybean Harvest Surges Forward

Soybean harvest has been in full swing now for a consecutive number of days. After being delayed for several days much of the Midwest are back in the fields. Soybean harvest in the upper Midwest is largely behind the 5 year harvest average. For soybean harvest, Iowa is 34% behind with Minnesota slightly better at 25% behind. South Dakota and North Dakota are down 30% and 35% respectively of the 5 year average. Weekly harvest progress is expected to take a giant leap as we string a solid week of harvest together.

The USDA has issued a statement regarding damaged soybeans that may be eligible for quality adjustments, if soybeans do not meet grade requirements for US number 4 soybeans. Soybeans that have kernel damage greater than 8 percent, will qualify for a quality adjustment in accordance with the Risk Management Agency’s special provisions of insurance. Soybeans may also qualify for Zero Market Value, if there are no willing buyers available to purchase the damaged production. If there is no salvage market found for damaged production, the Insurer’s provider can apply Zero Market Value procedures to calculate a Loss Adjustment.

Market Movers: Harvest Progress, Yield Reports

For more information, you may contact Brock Beadle at 515-341-7040, or e-mail at bbeadle@maxyieldgrain.com. The opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Brock Beadle. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position.