News Source: BRUG

Wheat Fades for Mixed Friday

Wheat field on a beautiful summer day

Winter wheat futures faded during the afternoon session to close firm on Friday. CBT prices ended the session mostly lower but within 1 1/2 cents of UNCH. KC HRW wheat also closed mostly lower within 1 1/4 cents of UNCH. Spring wheat futures stayed red and closed down by 6 3/4 to 13 3/4 cents. 

CFTC data as of 7/27 showed SRW wheat specs had flipped back to net long after a week of short covering. The group was 3,067 contracts net long on 136,819 contracts of OI (itself 26% of the total SRW OI). In KC wheat, managed money extended their net long by 4,020 contracts to an 11 week high of 31,765 contracts. Spring wheat spec traders were 534 contracts less net long as of 7/27. The groups short covering left them 8,326 contracts net long. 

The International Grains Council revised their wheat output for the global 21/22 crop by 1 MMT lower to 788 MMT. Total grain production and use were both expected to be records in 21/22 with feed contributing the largest to total grain use. For new crop wheat, IGC also increased global trade for a net 3 MMT tighter stockpile of 280 MMT. 

Egypt is back in the market for wheat, with delivery for Sept 24-Oct 4. 

The EU commission raised their wheat output forecast by 1.9 MMT to 127.7 MMT. The commission noted the wet weather may have not hindered yield by as much as previously thought, but mentioned possibly quality concerns. FranceAgriMer mentioned French wheat harvest had progressed to 47% complete through 7/26. That compared to 87% at the same point last season. 

Sep 21 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.03 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  was $6.65 1/6, down 2 3/8 cents,

Sep 21 KCBT Wheat  closed at $6.73 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  was $6.58, down 1 3/8 cents,

Sep 21 MGEX Wheat  closed at $9.04 3/4, down 13 3/4 cents,

Friday Cattle Close Weaker

Two Cows Looking at Camera

Front month fat cattle futures closed Friday’s session with losses of 37 to 95 cents. August fats maintained a 57 1/2 cent gain on the week from Friday to Friday, given the strength during Monday. Friday fat cattle trading has the board 22 to 80 cents red through midday. USDA reported Friday catch up sales in NE for $122 and WCB for $124. The rest of the week’s cash trade was $119-$120 in the South and mostly at $122 - $123 for the North. Feeder cattle futures were also red on Friday, going into the weekend 5 to 32 cents lower. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $154.04 after a 4 cent bump on 7/29.  

The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed an 11,217 contract increase to managed money’s net fat cattle position. The spec funds were 65,898 contracts net long after short covering. Short covering also lifted managed money’s feeder cattle net long by 2,850 contracts to 8,572. 

Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were higher on Friday with a $3.24 bump to Choice and a $2.37 bump for Select. The Chc/Sel spread was $19.27, but choice ribs were $440.91 and Select ribs were $370.97. Cattle slaughter for the week through Saturday was estimated at 649,000 head. That was 1,000 head more on the week, and 7,000 head higher yr/yr.  

Aug 21 Cattle  closed at $122.075, down $0.425,

Dec 21 Cattle  closed at $132.650, down $0.625,

Aug 21 Feeder Cattle  closed at $158.175, down $0.325

Sep 21 Feeder Cattle  closed at $161.800, down $0.150

Hogs Pull Back for Weekend

Black and brown pig in green pasture

At the close for the last trade day of the week, lean hog futures were a dime to 95 cents in the red. August hogs closed $1.15 weaker from Friday to Friday, but October was $4.60 weaker. USDA’s National Average Base hog price for Friday was 88 cents weaker to $101.70. The CME Lean Hog Index for 7/28 was back up by 6 cents to $112.04.  

Lean hog spec traders were seen as net buyers through the week ending 7/27. The extra managed money OI left the group 8,916 contracts more net long to a 6-wk high of 85,916. 

Pork cutout futures ended the Friday round of trading with losses of 22 cents to $1. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was up by 2 cents to $123.89 cwt. USDA estimates the week’s FI hog slaughter at 2.327m head through Saturday. That was down by 5k compared to last week and was 210k head below the same week last year.  

Aug 21 Hogs  closed at $106.200, down $0.100,

Dec 21 Hogs  closed at $81.650, down $0.750

Aug 21 Pork Cutout  closed at $119.175, down $0.850,

Cotton Closes Red for Weekend

Cotton Grass Flower

Front month cotton futures closed with Friday givebacks of 69 to 93 points. For December futures that was a net weekly move of 27 points, but futures traded within a weekly range of 304 points and posted a 91 cent LOC high. 

CFTC data showed managed money was 4,945 contracts more net long in cotton as of the close on Tuesday. The report signaled net new buying from the specs, leaving them 64,437 contracts net long. Commercial cotton traders expanded their hedges by 11,360 contracts to 156,461. 

The weekly Cotton Market Review from USDA showed 411 bales were sold at spot during the week, for an average price of 86.5 cents/lb. The Cotlook A index was another 25 points higher to 100.25 cents per pound. The week’s fresh AWP for cotton was 189 points higher to 78.47 cents/lb.  

Dec 21 Cotton  closed at 89.39, down 92 points,

Mar 22 Cotton  closed at 89.07, down 85 points,

May 22 Cotton  closed at 88.44, down 77 points

Corn Futures Closed Double Digits Weaker

Corn Many Kernels

Going into the weekend, front month corn futures had given back 7 1/2 to 11 1/4 cents. December contracts closed the week with 3 up days vs. 2 lower, a range of 28 1/2 cents, but only a net 2 1/4 cent gain from Friday to Friday. 

CFTC’s weekly data release showed managed money firms had extended their net long by 4,707 contracts through the week that ended 7/27. The short covering left the group 228,009 contracts net long. Commercials also took a risk off approach during the week, closing 51,450 contracts (3% of the group’s OI) for a 9,054 contract lighter net short as of Tuesday. 

The International Grains Council updated their corn forecasts for July. IGC saw an extra 1 MMT of global production raising it to 1.202 BMT. Trade was lowered and domestic consumption was lowered for a 3 MMT higher carryout now at 270 MMT for 21/22. IGC saw 268 MMT for old crop carryout. 

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reported Argentina’s corn harvest at 81.4% complete as of 7/29. That was outpacing the average which was to be 72.2% harvested at this time.

Sep 21 Corn  closed at $5.47, down 11 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $6.21 1/3, down 10 3/4 cents,

Dec 21 Corn  closed at $5.45 1/4, down 11 1/4 cents,

Mar 22 Corn  closed at $5.53 1/4, down 11 cents,

New Crop Cash  was $5.23 4/9, down 11 1/8 cents,

Soybeans Weaken ahead of Weekend

young soy bean growing summertime

Front month soy futures ended the Friday session with losses of 19 1/2 cents to 28 1/2 cents. November soybeans only had one red candle, but traded with a 55 1/2 cent range and a net loss of 2 1/2 cents from Friday to Friday. Soymeal prices were also red going into the weekend ending the session $3.90 to $5.40/ton weaker. BO futures were down by triple digits for most of the session and went home with 111 to 180 point losses. Friday was FND, with 6 meal contracts put out, 1 soy oil contract and no beans. The oldest dated August soybean long is 12/17.  

Analysts surveyed ahead of the USDA Fats and Oils report expect June’s soy crush at 162.1 mbu. NOPA members reported a 2-yr low 152.4 mbu crush in June. Soybean oil stocks are estimated between 1.97 and 2.015 for a 1.994 b lb average. 

The CoT report with data as of 7/27 showed soybean spec traders trimming their net long as long liquidation outweighed the short covering. The lighter managed money OI left the group 1,823 contracts less net long to 94,051 contracts. Commercial traders reduced their exposure by 36,257 contracts (5% of commercial OI) for a net 3,053 contract decrease to their net short. 

Soymeal specs were seen 22,193 contracts net long at the close on 7/27. CFTC data showed that was a 696 contract increase over the week, driven by net new spec fund buying. In soy oil, managed money was 61,262 contracts net long as of Tuesday’s close. That was a 4,115 contract increase, driven by net new buying. 

The July S&Ds from IGC sees 21/22 soybean output 1 MMT lighter at 382 MMT. The council also cut their trade forecast for a net 1 MMT increased carryover now estimated at 54 MMT. Bean trade was cut due to the International Grains Council expecting lower Chinese demand. IGC also trimmed 2020/21 trade by 4 MMT, citing lighter SoAm production and export, to 168 MMT. Old crop stocks were forecasted at 49 MMT. 

Aug 21 Soybeans  closed at $14.14 3/4, down 19 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $13.88 1/3, down 26 3/4 cents,

Sep 21 Soybeans  closed at $13.55 1/2, down 29 3/4 cents,

Nov 21 Soybeans  closed at $13.49 1/4, down 28 1/2 cents,

New Crop Cash  was $13.04 2/3, down 28 1/2 cents,

Soybeans Down Double Digits

Soybeans being harvested in the fall

Soybean futures are trading with double digit losses of as much as 27 3/4 cents so far through Friday’s midday. Soymeal futures are also weaker at midday, with futures 0.76% to 0.93% lower. Front month soy oil futures are down by triple digits at midday, losses of as much as 202 points. Today is first notice day against August futures. 

The July S&Ds from IGC sees 21/22 soybean output 1 MMT lighter at 382 MMT. The council also cut their trade forecast for a net 1 MMT increased carryover now estimated at 54 MMT. Bean trade was cut due to the International Grains Council expecting lower Chinese demand. IGC also trimmed 2020/21 trade by 4 MMT, citing lighter SoAm production and export, to 168 MMT. Old crop stocks were forecasted at 49 MMT. 

Aug 21 Soybeans  are at $14.10 1/4, down 24 cents,

Nearby Cash  is at $13.88 2/5, down 26 5/8 cents,

Sep 21 Soybeans  are at $13.57 1/2, down 27 3/4 cents,

Nov 21 Soybeans  are at $13.50 1/2, down 27 1/4 cents,

New Crop Cash  is at $13.06 2/9, down 27 cents,

Corn Prices Trading Lower through Midday

corn-3711186_1920

Front month corn prices are trading red ahead of the weekend. Prices are down 4 3/4 to 7 1/4 cents so far. 

NOAA’s updated 7-day QPF shows accumulation for Southern IA and MO accumulating to a pocket of 2 1/2”. The full system stretches from SD through KY, and is expected to drop 3/4” to an inch from mid SD, E. NE, and W. IL. Ohio, Minnesota, and North Dakota noticeably miss out. 

The International Grains Council updated their corn forecasts for July. IGC saw an extra 1 MMT of global production raising it to 1.202 BMT. Trade was lowered and domestic consumption was lowered for a 3 MMT higher carryout now at 270 MMT for 21/22. IGC saw 268 MMT for old crop carryout. 

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reported Argentina’s corn harvest at 81.4% complete as of 7/29. That was outpacing the average which was to be 72.2% harvested at this time.

Sep 21 Corn  is at $5.51, down 7 cents,

Nearby Cash  is at $6.25 5/9, down 6 5/8 cents,

Dec 21 Corn  is at $5.49, down 7 1/2 cents,

Mar 22 Corn  is at $5.57, down 7 1/4 cents,

New Crop Cash  is at $5.27 1/3, down 7 1/4 cents,

Hogs in Red ahead of Weekend

Cute pink pig looking in pasture

So far for Friday, lean hog futures are trading 40 cents to $1.30 weaker. October contracts posted the limit loss on Wednesday, before being the only front month to miss out on Thursday’s rally back, and is now down the most again. With no comparison to yesterday, USDA’s National Average Base hog price for Friday morning was $101.65. The CME Lean Hog Index for 7/28 was back up by 6 cents to $112.04.  

Pork cutout futures are also lower for Friday, giving back 22 cents to $1 in the front months. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was $1.10 stronger this morning at $124.97. USDA estimates the week’s FI hog slaughter at 1.876 million head through Thursday. Last week’s pace was 1.869 and the same week last year was 1.888 million head through Thursday. 

Aug 21 Hogs  are at $106.100, down $0.200,

Dec 21 Hogs  are at $81.025, down $1.375

Aug 21 Pork Cutout  is at $119.325, down $0.700,

Cotton Red at Midday

Cotton Fabric and Textiles on Spools

Cotton futures are trading the Friday session with midday losses of 53 points to 77 points. December is the weakest so far, and is now a 56 point discount to the thin October front month. The US dollar index is higher at midday.

The 7-day QPF shows precip totals of little to 1.5 inches in parts of west Texas pushing through central TX. Rain chances also spread from LA to the East Coast in that time frame.

The Cotlook A index was another 25 points higher to 100.25 cents per pound. The week’s fresh AWP for cotton was 189 points higher to 78.47 cents/lb.  

Dec 21 Cotton  is at 89.61, down 70 points,

Mar 22 Cotton  is at 89.3, down 62 points,

May 22 Cotton  is at 88.73, down 48 points

Wheat Market Mixed at Midday

Fields of wheat under a cloudy blue sky

Friday wheat trading has the board mixed so far. Winter wheat futures are adding to the upside ahead of the weekend. CBT SRW futures are 1 3/4 to 3 cents higher so far. KC wheat is gaining 1 3/4 to 3 1/2 cents through midday. Spring wheat futures are red in unison with the other row crop futures. HRS contracts are down by 2 1/4 to 7 1/2 cents so far for the front months. July ’22 contracts are 14 cents red at midday. 

The International Grains Council revised their wheat output for the global 21/22 crop by 1 MMT lower to 788 MMT. Total grain production and use were both expected to be records in 21/22 with feed contributing the largest to total grain use. For new crop wheat, IGC also increased global trade for a net 3 MMT tighter stockpile of 280 MMT. 

The EU commission raised their wheat output forecast by 1.9 MMT to 127.7 MMT. The commission noted the wet weather may have not hindered yield by as much as previously thought, but mentioned possibly quality concerns. FranceAgriMer mentioned French wheat harvest had progressed to 47% complete through 7/26. That compared to 87% at the same point last season. 

Sep 21 CBOT Wheat  is at $7.07 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  is at $6.68 1/1, up 1 3/8 cents,

Sep 21 KCBT Wheat  is at $6.76 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  is at $6.61 5/9, up 2 1/8 cents,

Sep 21 MGEX Wheat  is at $9.14 1/2, down 4 cents,

Cattle Continue Lower

Brown and white spotted cow with ear tag

Friday fat cattle trading has the board 22 to 80 cents red through midday. USDA confirmed cash trade for the week has gravitated to near $119-$120 in the South and mostly at $122 - $123 for the North. Feeder cattle futures are also red at midday, with the board showing 20 to 35 cent losses so far. The 7/28 CME Feeder Cattle Index was $154.00, back down by 34 cents. 

Wholesale Boxed Beef prices continued upward on Friday, as Choice boxes were quoted $3.60 stronger at $278.82 and Select boxes were $1.59 higher at $258.41. Cattle slaughter for the week through Thursday was estimated at 477,000 head. That is 10k head more than last week’s pace and is 3,000 head above the same week last season. 

Aug 21 Cattle  are at $122.175, down $0.325,

Dec 21 Cattle  are at $132.650, down $0.625,

Aug 21 Feeder Cattle  are at $158.150, down $0.350

Sep 21 Feeder Cattle  are at $161.600, down $0.350

Cattle Looking for a Rebound

Close up of brown cow in pasture

At the close yesterday, front month fat cattle futures were 22 to 57 cents weaker. USDA confirmed cash trade from $120 to $124 on Thursday, with sales of $195 to $201 in the beef. The bulk of trade has remained $119-$120 for the South and from $122-$123 in the North. Feeder cattle futures ended the session with $1.22 to $1.67 cent losses. The 7/28 CME Feeder Cattle Index was $154.00, back down by 34 cents. 

Wholesale Boxed Beef prices continued upward through USDA’s Thursday afternoon quote. Choice boxes were seen another $2.06 stronger while Select gained 70 cents. Cattle slaughter for the week through Thursday was estimated at 477,000 head. That is 10k head more than last week’s pace and is 3,000 head above the same week last season. 

Aug 21 Cattle  closed at $122.500, down $0.575,

Dec 21 Cattle  closed at $133.275, down $0.225,

Aug 21 Feeder Cattle  closed at $158.500, down $1.675

Sep 21 Feeder Cattle  closed at $161.950, down $1.500

Corn Pulling Back to Close the Week

Large cornfield with rows of crop

Corn prices overnight were down 3 to 4 ¾ cents to begin the last trade day of the week. At the Thursday close, corn futures were 4 1/2 to 8 3/4 cents higher in the front months.

Rains were making their way through South Dakota overnight heading towards parts of NE, IA, and MN.

USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed net cancelations for old crop bookings during the week that ended 7/22. That came as Japan canceled 161,100 MT and Venezuela bought 30k MT. Export shipments during the same week were up 35% on the week and were 40% above the same week last season as the 25th consecutive +1 MMT week. Accumulated shipments through the 22nd were 62.112 MMT (or 2.445 bbu). For new crop, FAS reported 529,256 MT of corn booked. That was above expectations and raised the total forward book by 3% to 16.657 MMT (656 mbu). 

Sep 21 Corn  closed at $5.58, up 8 3/4 cents, down 3 cents this morning

Nearby Cash  was $6.32 1/5, up 8 1/8 cents,

Dec 21 Corn  closed at $5.56 1/2, up 7 1/2 cents, down 4 ¾ cents this morning

Mar 22 Corn  closed at $5.64 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents, down 4 ¾ cents this morning

New Crop Cash  was $5.34 3/5, up 7 1/2 cents,

Cotton Head Lower to Start Friday

Closeup of Cotton Plant

Overnight cotton prices are down 90 to 118 points for the last trade day of the week. After spending moments of the trade on both sides of UNCH, front month cotton prices ultimately ended red with losses of 15 to 22 points. 

Export Sales data as of 7/22 showed net old crop cancelations amounting to 1,150 fewer RBs on the books. That was the first net cancelation of the season, comparing to 2019/20’s first during week 36. New crop bookings were 192,238 RBs. That was down 76% from last week, but moved the total forward book 6% higher to 3.164m RBs. 

The Cotlook A index was a dollar flat on 7/28, after an additional 65 point bump. USDA’s FSA will update the Adjusted World Price for cotton after the close, the current AWP is 76.58. 

Dec 21 Cotton  closed at 90.31, down 21 points, down 118 points this morning

Mar 22 Cotton  closed at 89.92, down 16 points, down 117 points this morning

May 22 Cotton  closed at 89.21, down 18 points, down 111 points this morning

Lean Hogs Look to End the Week

Pig Resting in Pen Hay

Thursday session concluded with the board 22 to 60 cents higher for the gainers and 55 cents weaker in October. USDA’s National Average Base hog price was $1.22 weaker in the PM report, to $102.58. The CME Lean Hog Index for 7/27 was $111.94, down by 11 cents. 

Pork cutout futures were also mixed on Thursday, closing with gains of $1.50 in August to within 32 cents of UNCH for the other front months. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was $1.10 lower in the PM quote at $123.87. USDA estimates the week’s FI hog slaughter at 1.876 million head through Thursday. Last week’s pace was 1.869 and the same week last year was 1.888 million head through Thursday. 

Aug 21 Hogs  closed at $106.300, up $0.600,

Dec 21 Hogs  closed at $82.400, up $0.250

Aug 21 Pork Cutout  closed at $120.025, up $1.500,

Beans Turn Lower on Friday Morning

Prepared tofu and soybeans on table

Front month soybean futures were are trading lower to start the Friday session. Contracts are down 6 to 11 ¾ cents. Spread trading against the old/new crop inverse unfolded late in the Thursday session. August soybeans closed 2 1/4 cents higher ahead of FND, while the rest of the nearby contracts rallied double digits of as much as 16 3/4. Soymeal prices were $0.40 to $1.10/ton higher at the close. BO futures ended the day with gains of 38 to 136 points led by NMY contracts. Canadian Canola Prices and European Rapeseed Futures were lower on Thursday, but Malaysian Palm Prices  were higher on the board.  

USDA reported a net 79,276 MT old crop bean cancelation in the weekly update. The cancelations came from Japan and unknown and were partially offset by new sales to Taiwan. Soybean exports during the week of 7/22 were 244,204 MT with Mexico as the top destination. Accumulated 2020/21 bean shipments were 59.1 MMT through 7/22. The report showed new crop sales were 312,754 MT. That was within the range of estimates and bumped the total forward book by 3% to 10.178 MMT. The top new crop buyers were Mexico, China, and Pakistan. Outside of the weekly report, USDA reported a private export sale for 132k MT of new crop soybeans to Mexico this morning. 

The weekly Export Sales report showed meal sales were 87,325 MT during the week of 7/22. That was in line with estimates and 28% higher than the week prior. FAS reported 242,217 MT of meal was shipped for a total export of 9.76 MMT through 7/22. New crop soymeal bookings were seen at 73,116 MT which was also in line with expectations. USDA reported soybean oil sales were 2,166 MT for the week. Total soy oil commitments were 679,429 MT as of 7/22. 

Aug 21 Soybeans  closed at $14.34 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents, down 6 cents this morning

Nearby Cash  was $14.14 1/1, up 3 3/4 cents,

Sep 21 Soybeans  closed at $13.85 1/4, up 15 cents, down 11 ¾ cents this morning

Nov 21 Soybeans  closed at $13.77 3/4, up 16 3/4 cents, down 11 cents this morning

New Crop Cash  was $13.32 4/5, up 17 1/8 cents,

Wheat Down to Start Week’s Final Trade Session

Field of wheat

Friday wheat trading looks set to begin the day portion with losses across the complex. CBT is down 6 to 7 ¾ cents. KC is 5 to 6 ½ cents lower, with 11 to 12 ¼ cents in the red. At the close for Thursday’s trade, wheat futures were double digits stronger. Spring wheat futures pulled back from 20+ cent gains, but were still 5 1/2 to 14 3/4 cents stronger on the day. SRW wheat prices closed with gains of 13 1/4 to 16 1/2 cents. KC HRW prices were 10 3/4 to 15 cents higher. 

The wheat quality council estimated the spring wheat average yield at 29.1 bpa, compared to the average of 43.6 bpa and USDA’s estimated 30.7 bpa for other spring. Surveyor reports focused on withered plants, dry/dusty soil, grasshoppers, and tillers on the ground. Some surveyed fields were expected to yield less than 10 bpa, and will has a chance to be abandoned. Others suggested that protein levels appear to be promising for the wheat remaining, and found some fields likely to yield in the mid to low 40s.

The weekly Export Sales report from USDA showed 515,168 MT of wheat was booked during the week that ended 7/22. That was within the range of estimates but was a MY high – the largest since the week of February 4th. The week’s sales were still 24% below the same week last season. China was listed as the top buyer, though their purchase was from a previously reported sale to unknown, with Mexico having bought 86k MT. By class, HRW sales made up the largest share with 43% of the total. HRW also accounted for nearly half of the 344,965 MT reported exports during the week. Accumulated shipments are at 2.73 MMT as of 7/22, with HRW’s share at 37.5% compared to 47% of the total at the same point last year. Overall wheat shipments are 29% behind last season’s pace. 

Sep 21 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.05 1/4, up 16 1/2 cents, down 6 cents this morning

Cash SRW Wheat  was $6.67 4/7, up 16 cents,

Sep 21 KCBT Wheat  closed at $6.74 1/2, up 15 cents, down 5 cents this morning

Cash HRW Wheat  was $6.59 2/5, up 15 1/8 cents,

Sep 21 MGEX Wheat  closed at $9.18 1/2, up 14 3/4 cents, down 11 cents this morning

Cotton Closed Red on Thursday

Cotton Field with Drones

After spending moments of the trade on both sides of UNCH, front month cotton prices ultimately ended red with losses of 15 to 22 points. 

Export Sales data as of 7/22 showed net old crop cancelations amounting to 1,150 fewer RBs on the books. That was the first net cancelation of the season, comparing to 2019/20’s first during week 36. The net reduction came as Indonesia, Vietnam, China, and Japan’s cuts offset new business to Mexico, Pakistan, Peru, South Korea, and Egypt. New crop bookings were 192,238 RBs. That was down 76% from last week, but moved the total forward book 6% higher to 3.164m RBs. 

The Cotlook A index was a dollar flat on 7/28, after an additional 65 point bump. USDA’s FSA will update the Adjusted World Price for cotton after the close, the current AWP is 76.58. 

Dec 21 Cotton  closed at 90.31, down 21 points,

Mar 22 Cotton  closed at 89.92, down 16 points,

May 22 Cotton  closed at 89.21, down 18 points

Lean Hogs Mixed to Mostly Higher at Close

Piglets napping

After Wednesday’s triple digit losses, with a limit move in Oct, the Thursday session concluded with the board 22 to 60 cents higher for the gainers and 55 cents weaker in October. USDA confirmed the rumors of ASF present in the Dominican Republic’s domestic hog herd, representing the first Western Hemisphere case since the 60’s, this morning. USDA’s National Average Base hog price was $1.22 weaker in the PM report, to $102.58. The CME Lean Hog Index for 7/27 was $111.94, down by 11 cents. 

USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed a 3 week high for pork bookings, as 38,502 MT were sold. Mexico was the main driver with 65% of the total sale. Mexico was also the top destination for the week’s 29,920 MT shipped. 

Pork cutout futures were also mixed on Thursday, closing with gains of $1.50 in August to within 32 cents of UNCH for the other front months. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was $1.10 lower in the PM quote at $123.87. USDA estimates the week’s FI hog slaughter at 1.876 million head through Thursday. Last week’s pace was 1.869 and the same week last year was 1.888 million head through Thursday. 

Aug 21 Hogs  closed at $106.300, up $0.600,

Dec 21 Hogs  closed at $82.400, up $0.250

Aug 21 Pork Cutout  closed at $120.025, up $1.500,

Cattle Market Ends Session in Red

Cows looking out from pen ear tagged

At the close, front month fat cattle futures were 22 to 57 cents weaker. USDA confirmed cash trade from $120 to $124 on Thursday, with sales of $195 to $201 in the beef. The bulk of trade has remained $119-$120 for the South and from $122-$123 in the North. Feeder cattle futures ended the session with $1.22 to $1.67 cent losses. The 7/28 CME Feeder Cattle Index was $154.00, back down by 34 cents. 

The weekly FAS data release showed beef export bookings were 22,467 MT for the week that ended 7/22. That was down from 25k MT last week but still 43% above the same week last year. South Korea was the top buyer with an 8,200 MT purchase, followed by Japan and China at 6,100 and 4,500 MT respectively. South Korea was also the top destination for the week’s 19,135 MT of export shipments. 

Wholesale Boxed Beef prices continued upward through USDA’s Thursday afternoon quote. Choice boxes were seen another $2.06 stronger while Select gained 70 cents. Cattle slaughter for the week through Thursday was estimated at 477,000 head. That is 10k head more than last week’s pace and is 3,000 head above the same week last season. 

Aug 21 Cattle  closed at $122.500, down $0.575,

Dec 21 Cattle  closed at $133.275, down $0.225,

Aug 21 Feeder Cattle  closed at $158.500, down $1.675

Sep 21 Feeder Cattle  closed at $161.950, down $1.500

Beans Close in Black

fresh soy beans__480x320

Spread trading against the old/new crop inverse unfolded late in the Thursday session. August soybeans closed 2 1/4 cents higher ahead of FND, while the rest of the nearby contracts rallied double digits of as much as 16 3/4. Soymeal prices were $0.40 to $1.10/ton higher at the close. BO futures ended the day with gains of 38 to 136 points led by NMY contracts. Canadian Canola Prices and European Rapeseed Futures were lower on Thursday, but Malaysian Palm Prices  were higher on the board.  

USDA reported a net 79,276 MT old crop bean cancelation in the weekly update. The cancelations came from Japan and unknown and were partially offset by new sales to Taiwan. Soybean exports during the week of 7/22 were 244,204 MT with Mexico as the top destination. Accumulated 2020/21 bean shipments were 59.1 MMT through 7/22. The report showed new crop sales were 312,754 MT. That was within the range of estimates and bumped the total forward book by 3% to 10.178 MMT. The top new crop buyers were Mexico, China, and Pakistan. Outside of the weekly report, USDA reported a private export sale for 132k MT of new crop soybeans to Mexico this morning. 

The weekly Export Sales report showed meal sales were 87,325 MT during the week of 7/22. That was in line with estimates and 28% higher than the week prior. FAS reported 242,217 MT of meal was shipped for a total export of 9.76 MMT through 7/22. New crop soymeal bookings were seen at 73,116 MT which was also in line with expectations. USDA reported soybean oil sales were 2,166 MT for the week. Total soy oil commitments were 679,429 MT as of 7/22. 

Aug 21 Soybeans  closed at $14.34 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $14.14 1/1, up 3 3/4 cents,

Sep 21 Soybeans  closed at $13.85 1/4, up 15 cents,

Nov 21 Soybeans  closed at $13.77 3/4, up 16 3/4 cents,

New Crop Cash  was $13.32 4/5, up 17 1/8 cents,

Corn Prices Gain on Thursday

Large cornfield with rows of crop

At the Thursday close, corn futures were 4 1/2 to 8 3/4 cents higher in the front months. September prices added to their premium to Dec, but spot cash prices were still a 74 cent premium to September contracts. Dalian Corn Prices were seen firming on Wednesday to 2,565 yuan/MT (~ $10.09/bu) for Jan’s new crop contract. 

USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed net cancelations for old crop bookings during the week that ended 7/22. That came as Japan canceled 161,100 MT and Venezuela bought 30k MT. Export shipments during the same week were up 35% on the week and were 40% above the same week last season as the 25th consecutive +1 MMT week. Accumulated shipments through the 22nd were 62.112 MMT (or 2.445 bbu). For new crop, FAS reported 529,256 MT of corn booked. That was above expectations and raised the total forward book by 3% to 16.657 MMT (656 mbu). 

For milo, USDA reported just 1,984 MT booked in that week. That was as previously unknown business was transferred to China and Mexico bought 1,000 MT. There were no new crop sales. Milo exports during the week were 69,638 MT, exclusively to China, bringing the MYTD total to 6.54 MMT.

Sep 21 Corn  closed at $5.58, up 8 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $6.32 1/5, up 8 1/8 cents,

Dec 21 Corn  closed at $5.56 1/2, up 7 1/2 cents,

Mar 22 Corn  closed at $5.64 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents,

New Crop Cash  was $5.34 3/5, up 7 1/2 cents,

Thursday Wheat Adds to Upside

Wheat bence-balla-schottner-b1FS5jQrsLo-unsplash

At the close for Thursday’s trade, wheat futures were double digits stronger. Spring wheat futures pulled back from 20+ cent gains, but were still 5 1/2 to 14 3/4 cents stronger on the day. SRW wheat prices closed with gains of 13 1/4 to 16 1/2 cents. KC HRW prices were 10 3/4 to 15 cents higher. 

The weekly Export Sales report from USDA showed 515,168 MT of wheat was booked during the week that ended 7/22. That was within the range of estimates but was a MY high – the largest since the week of February 4th. The week’s sales were still 24% below the same week last season. China was listed as the top buyer, though their purchase was from a previously reported sale to unknown, with Mexico having bought 86k MT. By class, HRW sales made up the largest share with 43% of the total. HRW also accounted for nearly half of the 344,965 MT reported exports during the week. Accumulated shipments are at 2.73 MMT as of 7/22, with HRW’s share at 37.5% compared to 47% of the total at the same point last year. Overall wheat shipments are 29% behind last season’s pace. 

The wheat quality council estimated the spring wheat average yield at 29.1 bpa, compared to the average of 43.6 bpa and USDA’s estimated 30.7 bpa for other spring. Surveyor reports focused on withered plants, dry/dusty soil, grasshoppers, and tillers on the ground. Some surveyed fields were expected to yield less than 10 bpa, and will has a chance to be abandoned. Others suggested that protein levels appear to be promising for the wheat remaining, and found some fields likely to yield in the mid to low 40s.

Sep 21 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.05 1/4, up 16 1/2 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  was $6.67 4/7, up 16 cents,

Sep 21 KCBT Wheat  closed at $6.74 1/2, up 15 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  was $6.59 2/5, up 15 1/8 cents,

Sep 21 MGEX Wheat  closed at $9.18 1/2, up 14 3/4 cents,

Soy Complex Higher for Midday

A hand scooping soybeans

So far soybeans are gaining double digits through midday. Front month futures are up 15 3/4 to 16 3/4 cents. Soymeal prices are 60 cents to $1.10/ton in the black. BO futures are triple digits stronger with gains of at least 139 points in the front months. Canadian Canola Prices and European Rapeseed Futures are working lower through midday, but  Malaysian Palm Prices  were higher on the board.  

USDA reported a net 79,276 MT old crop bean cancelation in the weekly update. The cancelations came from Japan and unknown and were partially offset by new sales to Taiwan. Soybean exports during the week of 7/22 were 244,204 MT with Mexico as the top destination. Accumulated 2020/21 bean shipments were 59.1 MMT through 7/22. The report showed new crop sales were 312,754 MT. That was within the range of estimates and bumped the total forward book by 3% to 10.178 MMT. The top new crop buyers were Mexico, China, and Pakistan. Outside of the weekly report, USDA reported a private export sale for 132k MT of new crop soybeans to Mexico this morning. 

The weekly Export Sales report showed meal sales were 87,325 MT during the week of 7/22. That was in line with estimates and 28% higher than the week prior. FAS reported 242,217 MT of meal was shipped for a total export of 9.76 MMT through 7/22. New crop soymeal bookings were seen at 73,116 MT which was also in line with expectations. USDA reported soybean oil sales were 2,166 MT for the week. Total soy oil commitments were 679,429 MT as of 7/22. 

Aug 21 Soybeans  are at $14.48 1/4, up 16 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash  is at $14.24 2/7, up 13 1/8 cents,

Sep 21 Soybeans  are at $13.86 3/4, up 16 1/2 cents,

Nov 21 Soybeans  are at $13.77 3/4, up 16 3/4 cents,

New Crop Cash  is at $13.31 5/8, up 16 cents,

Wheat Rally Continues

Field of wheat at golden hour

So far through Thursday’s midday, wheat futures are adding another double digit gain to the upside. Spring wheat futures are trading 6 to 7 1/2 cents higher in Spring ’22 contracts, but 2021 contracts are more than 20 cents higher. CBT prices are trading with gains of at least 11 1/4 cents in the front months. KC HRW futures are 11 to 15 1/4 cents in the black. 

The weekly Export Sales report from USDA showed 515,168 MT of wheat was booked during the week that ended 7/22. That was within the range of estimates but was a MY high – the largest since the week of February 4th. The week’s sales were still 24% below the same week last season. China was listed as the top buyer, though their purchase was from a previously reported sale to unknown, with Mexico having bought 86k MT. By class, HRW sales made up the largest share with 43% of the total. HRW also accounted for nearly half of the 344,965 MT reported exports during the week. Accumulated shipments are at 2.73 MMT as of 7/22, with HRW’s share at 37.5% compared to 47% of the total at the same point last year. Overall wheat shipments are 29% behind last season’s pace. 

The ND spring wheat quality crop tour issued Day 2’s average yield results of 24.6 bpa. Day 1 averaged 29.5, and Day 2’s 5-yr average was 42.4 bpa. Surveyor reports focused on withered plants, dry/dusty soil, grasshoppers, and tillers on the ground. Some surveyed fields were expected to yield less than 10 bpa. Some of those will likely be abandoned. Others suggested that protein levels appear to be promising for the wheat remaining. Today is the final day of the tour.

Sep 21 CBOT Wheat  is at $7.04 1/4, up 15 1/2 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  is at $6.67 1/9, up 15 1/2 cents,

Sep 21 KCBT Wheat  is at $6.74 3/4, up 15 1/4 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  is at $6.59 1/3, up 15 cents,

Sep 21 MGEX Wheat  is at $9.24 1/4, up 20 1/2 cents,

Hogs Bouncing Back

Pigs feeding from trough in pen

After Wednesday’s triple digit losses, with a limit move in Oct, the Thursday session sees futures back in the black with gains of 7 to 82 cents so far. USDA confirmed the rumors of ASF present in the Dominican Republic’s domestic hog herd, representing the first Western Hemisphere case since the 60’s, this morning. USDA’s National Average Base hog price was withheld this morning protecting confidentiality. The Wednesday PM price was $103.80. The CME Lean Hog Index for 7/27 was $111.94, down by 11 cents. 

USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed a 3 week high for pork bookings, as 38,502 MT were sold. Mexico was the main driver with 65% of the total sale. Mexico was also the top destination for the week’s 29,920 MT shipped. 

Pork cutout futures are recovering as well with triple digit gains through midday. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was $2.40 stronger in the AM report to $127.37 cwt. as bellies were $14.92 higher. USDA estimates the week’s FI hog slaughter at 1.408 million head through Wednesday. That is 8,000 head above last week’s pace and 2,000 head more than the same week last year.  

Aug 21 Hogs  are at $106.700, up $1.000,

Dec 21 Hogs  are at $82.700, up $0.550

Aug 21 Pork Cutout  is at $120.100, up $1.575,

Cattle Complex Weakening

a-closeup-of-a-dairy-cow-eating-hay-in-the-barn-chewing-his-cud_SKVxG-H0Hs

Strength for the feed components have the cattle board red through Thursday’s midday. Fats are trading 2 to 20 cents weaker. There were reports of scattered $119 and $120 trades in the South Thursday morning. USDA noted the bulk of activity so far has been $119 in the South and $122-$123 in the North. Feeder cattle futures are also feeling the pressure with triple digit midday losses. The 7/27 CME Feeder Cattle Index was $154.36, up another $0.39.

The weekly FAS data release showed beef export bookings were 22,467 MT for the week that ended 7/22. That was down from 25k MT last week but still 43% above the same week last year. South Korea was the top buyer with an 8,200 MT purchase, followed by Japan and China at 6,100 and 4,500 MT respectively. South Korea was also the top destination for the week’s 19,135 MT of export shipments. 

Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were stronger again this morning, widening the Chc/Sel spread back to $18.53. Choice boxes were $2.06 higher, and Select was up by 57 cents. USDA estimated federally inspected cattle slaughter at 358,000 head for the week through Wednesday. That was up by 11,000 head compared to last week’s pace and 3,000 higher yr/yr. 

Aug 21 Cattle  are at $122.750, down $0.325,

Dec 21 Cattle  are at $133.300, down $0.200,

Aug 21 Feeder Cattle  are at $159.150, down $1.025

Sep 21 Feeder Cattle  are at $162.400, down $1.050

Corn Market Gaining at Midday

landscape of corn field at summer countryside

Through midday, front month corn futures were 4 3/4 to 6 3/4 cents in the black. Dalian Corn Prices were seen firming on Wednesday to 2,565 yuan/MT (~ $10.09/bu) for Jan’s new crop contract. 

USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed net cancelations for old crop bookings during the week that ended 7/22. That came as Japan canceled 161,100 MT and Venezuela bought 30k MT. Export shipments during the same week were up 35% on the week and were 40% above the same week last season as the 25th consecutive +1 MMT week. Accumulated shipments through the 22nd were 62.112 MMT (or 2.445 bbu). For new crop, FAS reported 529,256 MT of corn booked. That was above expectations and raised the total forward book by 3% to 16.657 MMT (656 mbu). 

For milo, USDA reported just 1,984 MT booked in that week. That was as previously unknown business was transferred to China and Mexico bought 1,000 MT. There were no new crop sales. Milo exports during the week were 69,638 MT, exclusively to China, bringing the MYTD total to 6.54 MMT.

Sep 21 Corn  is at $5.55 3/4, up 6 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash  is at $6.30 5/7, up 6 5/8 cents,

Dec 21 Corn  is at $5.55 3/4, up 6 3/4 cents,

Mar 22 Corn  is at $5.63 1/2, up 6 3/4 cents,

New Crop Cash  is at $5.33 5/6, up 6 3/4 cents,

Cotton Board Mixed at Midday

Rolls of Fabric from Cotton

Front month cotton futures are trading firm in both directions, with the board within 10 points of UNCH for midday. Early session trading had futures down by double digits, with Dec and Oct still red during the bounce so far. 

Export Sales data as of 7/22 showed net old crop cancelations amounting to 1,150 fewer RBs on the books. That was the first net cancelation of the season, comparing to 2019/20’s first during week 36. The net reduction came as Indonesia, Vietnam, China, and Japan’s cuts offset new business to Mexico, Pakistan, Peru, South Korea, and Egypt. New crop bookings were 192,238 RBs. That was down 76% from last week, but moved the total forward book 6% higher to 3.164m RBs. 

The Cotlook A index was a dollar flat on 7/28, after an additional 65 point bump. USDA’s FSA will update the Adjusted World Price for cotton after the close, the current AWP is 76.58. 

Dec 21 Cotton  is at 90.43, down 9 points,

Mar 22 Cotton  is at 90.06, down 2 points,

May 22 Cotton  is at 89.44, up 5 points

Wheat Continues Gains into Thursday Morning

Baked wheat bread sliced

Wheat futures followed Wednesday’s gains with another round of higher overnight trade. CBT is up 5 ½ to 8 ¾ cents, with KC 6 ½ to 8 ½ cents higher and MPLS leading the way up 6 to 10 cents. The trade closed the Wednesday session with wheat futures double digits stronger. Spring wheat futures led the midweek charge closing with 14 1/4 to 25 1/2 cent gains on tour results and weather forecasts. SRW ended the session with gains of 10 3/4 to 14 1/4 cents. KC wheat futures were up by 15 1/4 to 18 1/4 cents on the day. The cash HRW wheat to spot cash corn spread using cmdtyView data was back up to 23 3/4 cents favoring HRW. Cash corn had held a premium since March of 2021. 

The ND spring wheat quality crop tour issued Day 1 average yield results of 29.5 bpa. Surveyors found Eastern ND crops were fairing better than the drier West and Central. Some better fields were estimated between 35 and 45 with a 41 bpa average propping up the day 1 average. That compares to a statewide day 1 estimate of 45.6 bpa for 2019 (no tour in 2020). Day 2 results will be announced later. Day 2 of the tour showed an average yield at 24.6 bpa, down nearlt 16.2 bpa from the 2019 total and vs. the 42.4 bpa 5-year average.

Export Sales data will be released shortly. Going into the report, analysts surveyed anticipate USDA to show between 350,000 and 600,000 MT of wheat bookings. Data will be released tomorrow morning and will be as of 7/22. 

Sep 21 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.88 3/4, up 14 1/4 cents, up 5 ½ cents this morning

Cash SRW Wheat  was $6.51 1/5, up 14 1/2 cents,

Sep 21 KCBT Wheat  closed at $6.59 1/2, up 18 cents, up 6 ½ cents this morning

Cash HRW Wheat  was $6.44 2/7, up 18 1/8 cents,

Sep 21 MGEX Wheat  closed at $9.03 3/4, up 25 1/2 cents, up 10 cents this morning

Beans Higher to Start Thursday

Soybeans emerging in the spring

Overnight adjustments led the soy complex5 to 7 ¾ cents higher. After trading mostly in the red at midday, front month soybean futures closed the midweek session with gains of 1 1/4 to 13 3/4 cents. August futures were the strongest mover, outgaining Sept by 10 1/2 cents on the day to widen the inverse. Soymeal futures also came back for the close, but prices still ended the day $2.70 to $2.90/ton lower. BO futures closed the session with gains of 29 to 56 points. 

CME Synthetic Soy Crush  was weaker on Wednesday, pulling back 15.25% to 84 3/4 cents per bushel. The new crop December crush was $1.24/bu on Wednesday, down by 2 1/2 cents. 

The range of estimates going into the weekly Export Sales report is to see +/- 100,000 MT of old crop soybean business. New crop bean sales are estimated between 200k and 400k MT for the week that ended 7/22. For soymeal, traders surveyed anticipate seeing 50,000 to 200,000 MT sold for 2020/21 delivery and 25k to 125k MT for NMY delivery. BO bookings are expected to be less than 10,000 MT for the week that ended the 22nd. 

StatsCan data showed the June canola crush was 830k MT. That was a 4% drop in June crushing from last season, leaving the MYTD crush at 9.59 MMT. Canadian data suggests that is a 2.9% increase from the year prior’s pace. 

Aug 21 Soybeans  closed at $14.32, up 13 3/4 cents, up 6 ½ cents this morning

Nearby Cash  was $14.12 3/4, up 11 cents,

Sep 21 Soybeans  closed at $13.70 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents, up 7 ½ cents this morning

Nov 21 Soybeans  closed at $13.61, up 1 1/2 cents, up 7 ½ cents this morning

New Crop Cash  was $13.16 1/1, up 5/8 cent,

Hog Traders to Digest ASF News

Pig grazing in field

Hogs will trade with expanded limits for Thursday, $4.50, as October futures closed down by the limit yesterday. The other front months were also down triple digits, from $1.77 to $2.70 losses. USDA’s National Average Afternoon Base hog price was $1.74 weaker on Wednesday to $103.80. USDA had the Tuesday PM price at $105.54. The CME Lean Hog Index for 7/26 was down 17 cents to $112.05. 

Later on Wednesday evening a report indicated that African Swine Fever had made its way to the Dominican Republic. This is the reported first case of ASF in the Western Hemisphere, and the closest case to the US. 

Pork cutout were also down triple digits on Wednesday, past August’s 32 cent gain. They will also have expanded limits on Thursday. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was $1.48 stronger in the PM report to $124.97 cwt. USDA estimates the week’s FI hog slaughter at 1.408 million head through Wednesday. That is 8,000 head above last week’s pace and 2,000 head more than the same week last year.  

Aug 21 Hogs  closed at $105.700, down $1.775,

Dec 21 Hogs  closed at $82.150, down $2.700

Aug 21 Pork Cutout  closed at $118.525, up $0.325,

Cattle look to Thursday Trade

Man feeding cows on farm in cowshed cattle grazing in pen

Yesterday’s cattle complex closed mixed after printing midday gains. 2021 delivery months added less than 15 cents to the upside on the day, while the deferred contracts closed less than a dime in the red. USDA has seen some cash trade for the week from $116-$123, citing the bulk of Southern deals at $119 so far and the bulk of Northern trade at $123. Feeder cattle closed the midweek session with losses of 22 to 55 cents on the board. The 7/27 CME Feeder Cattle Index was $154.36, up another $0.39.

Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were stronger again Wednesday, as USDA quoted Choice boxes at $273.166 cwt. for a $3.43 increase and Select boxes at $256.12 after a $2.18 bump. USDA estimated federally inspected cattle slaughter at 358,000 head for the week through Wednesday. That was up by 11,000 head compared to last week’s pace and 3,000 higher yr/yr. 

Aug 21 Cattle  closed at $123.075, up $0.150,

Dec 21 Cattle  closed at $133.500, up $0.025,

Aug 21 Feeder Cattle  closed at $160.175, down $0.525

Sep 21 Feeder Cattle  closed at $163.450, down $0.550

Cotton Higher on Thursday Morning

Cotton Grass Flower

Cotton futures were slightly higher overnight to begin the Thursday session. Futures are up 9 to 17 points. At the close for the midweek round of cotton trading, prices were 17 to 31 points in the black. October was the firmest on the day, with OI data showing just 336 contracts open as of 7/27. 

Export Sales data will be out later this morning. 

The northern regions of AL, and MS along with mid AR are anticipated to see about an inch accumulated through the next 5 days. The remainder of cotton country is expected to remain dry according to NOAA. 

USDA’s 7/28 DSQ report again showed no sales with the season’s total sitting at 1,386,957 bales provided to the cotton program. The Cotlook A index was UNCH on 7/27 at 99.30 cents/lb. The AWP for cotton is 76.58 through Thursday. 

Dec 21 Cotton  closed at 90.52, up 29 points, up 17 points cents this morning

Mar 22 Cotton  closed at 90.08, up 27 points, up 13 points this morning

May 22 Cotton  closed at 89.39, up 29 points unch this morning

Corn Slightly Higher in Early Thursday Trade

Corn Field Blue Sky__427x320

Corn prices overnight were up just ¾ to 1 ½ cents ahead of the Export Sales report. At the close for the midweek session, front month corn futures were fractionally to 3 cents in the black. New crop futures were stronger reducing the September to December inverse to just 1/4 of a cent.

Ahead of the weekly Export Sales report, the traders surveyed anticipate USDA to show between 0 and 600k MT of corn bookings for the week of 7/22. That could come from between net cancelations of 100k to net new sales of as much as 300k MT for old crop, and from 100k to 300k MT of new crop bookings. 

EIA’s weekly report showed ethanol producers averaged 1.014m barrels of production per day during the week ending 7/23. That was a drop-off of 14k barrels per day, and was a 10 week low. Stocks had built during the week, with another 215k barrels to 22.733 million. 

Sep 21 Corn  closed at $5.49 1/4, up 1/2 cent, up 1 ¼ cents this morning

Nearby Cash  was $6.24 2/7, up 3/8 cent,

Dec 21 Corn  closed at $5.49, up 2 3/4 cents, up 1  cent this morning

Mar 22 Corn  closed at $5.56 3/4, up 3 cents, up ¾ cents this morning

New Crop Cash  was $5.27, up 2 7/8 cents,

Hogs Fall Triple Digits

Black and brown pig in green pasture

Lean hog futures will trade Thursday with expanded limits of $4.50 as October futures closed down the limit. The other front months were also down triple digits, from $1.77 to $2.70 losses. USDA’s National Average Afternoon Base hog price was $1.74 weaker on Wednesday to $103.80. USDA had the Tuesday PM price at $105.54. The CME Lean Hog Index for 7/26 was down 17 cents to $112.05. 

Pork cutout were also down triple digits on Wednesday, past August’s 32 cent gain. They will also have expanded limits on Thursday. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was $1.48 stronger in the PM report to $124.97 cwt. USDA estimates the week’s FI hog slaughter at 1.408 million head through Wednesday. That is 8,000 head above last week’s pace and 2,000 head more than the same week last year.  

Aug 21 Hogs  closed at $105.700, down $1.775,

Dec 21 Hogs  closed at $82.150, down $2.700

Aug 21 Pork Cutout  closed at $118.525, up $0.325,

Cattle Board Mixed at Close

Cows in pen looking at camera

After printing midday gains, the live cattle futures complex went home Wednesday mixed. 2021 delivery months added less than 15 cents to the upside on the day, while the deferred contracts closed less than a dime in the red. The weekly FCE auction only hosted cattle from TX and KS, with just 1,085 TX cattle sold for a weighted average price of $119.50 ($119-$120). Outside of the FCE, USDA saw some cash trade from $116-$123, citing the bulk of Southern deals at $119 so far, firm with last week, and the bulk of Northern trade at $123. Feeder cattle closed the midweek session with losses of 22 to 55 cents on the board. The 7/27 CME Feeder Cattle Index was $154.36, up another $0.39.

Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were stronger again Wednesday, as USDA quoted Choice boxes at $273.166 cwt. for a $3.43 increase and Select boxes at $256.12 after a $2.18 bump. USDA estimated federally inspected cattle slaughter at 358,000 head for the week through Wednesday. That was up by 11,000 head compared to last week’s pace and 3,000 higher yr/yr. 

Aug 21 Cattle  closed at $123.075, up $0.150,

Dec 21 Cattle  closed at $133.500, up $0.025,

Aug 21 Feeder Cattle  closed at $160.175, down $0.525

Sep 21 Feeder Cattle  closed at $163.450, down $0.550

Cotton Higher on Wednesday

Cotton fabric with texture

At the close for the midweek round of cotton trading, prices were 17 to 31 points in the black. October was the firmest on the day, with OI data showing just 336 contracts open as of 7/27. 

The northern regions of AL, and MS along with mid AR are anticipated to see about an inch accumulated through the next 5 days. The remainder of cotton country is expected to remain dry according to NOAA. 

USDA’s 7/28 DSQ report again showed no sales with the season’s total sitting at 1,386,957 bales provided to the cotton program. The Cotlook A index was UNCH on 7/27 at 99.30 cents/lb. The AWP for cotton is 76.58 through Thursday. 

Dec 21 Cotton  closed at 90.52, up 29 points,

Mar 22 Cotton  closed at 90.08, up 27 points,

May 22 Cotton  closed at 89.39, up 29 points

Wednesday Wheat Gains Double Digits

Wheat beth-macdonald-1OaAaZBpRDE-unsplash

The trade closed the Wednesday session with wheat futures double digits stronger. Spring wheat futures led the midweek charge closing with 14 1/4 to 25 1/2 cent gains on tour results and weather forecasts. SRW ended the session with gains of 10 3/4 to 14 1/4 cents. KC wheat futures were up by 15 1/4 to 18 1/4 cents on the day. The cash HRW wheat to spot cash corn spread using cmdtyView data was back up to 23 3/4 cents favoring HRW. Cash corn had held a premium since March of 2021. 

The ND spring wheat quality crop tour issued Day 1 average yield results of 29.5 bpa. Surveyors found Eastern ND crops were fairing better than the drier West and Central. Some better fields were estimated between 35 and 45 with a 41 bpa average propping up the day 1 average. That compares to a statewide day 1 estimate of 45.6 bpa for 2019 (no tour in 2020). Day 2 results will be announced later. 

NOAA reported continued dryness for spring wheat growing regions for the next 5 days in their midweek QPF. WA, OR, MT, ND, and northern SD are all expected to remain dry. ID, MN, and the Southern border of SD may find some scattered precip, but accumulations were forecasted at less than 1 1/4”. HRW territory is also expected to remain dry over the next 5 days helping harvest finish up, though SRW harvest may be stop and go with scattered rainfall amounting to 1 1/2” in some spots. 

Ahead of the Export Sales data release, analysts surveyed anticipate USDA to show between 350,000 and 600,000 MT of wheat bookings. Data will be released tomorrow morning and will be as of 7/22. 

Lower assumed output and a slow start to the season’s sales prompted SovEcon to cut their Russian wheat export forecast by 1.3 MMT to 37.1. The agency also mentioned a slow harvest pace driven by recent rains. Russia’s Ag Ministry reported 47.9 MMT of grain had been harvested so far.  

Sep 21 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.88 3/4, up 14 1/4 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  was $6.51 1/5, up 14 1/2 cents,

Sep 21 KCBT Wheat  closed at $6.59 1/2, up 18 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  was $6.44 2/7, up 18 1/8 cents,

Sep 21 MGEX Wheat  closed at $9.03 3/4, up 25 1/2 cents,