News Source: BRUG

Double Digit Monday Bounce in Beans

young soy bean growing summertime

Soybean futures popped 13 2/3to 16 3/4 cents out of the weekend. That bounce left November 11 1/4 cents off last week’s high. Meal was firm to start the week, going home on Monday 40 to 80 cents/ton higher in ’22 contracts and 20 cents weaker for Dec ’21. BO futures were triple digits stronger on the day, with December 1.42 cents under last week’s high. 

Export Inspections data had 2.1 MMT of beans shipped during the week of 10/21. That was down from 2.45 MMT last week and from 2.89 MMT the same week last season. China was the top destination for the week’s soybean exports, with 1.54 MMT or 73% of the total. USDA also added 152,859 MT of beans to past reports, which brought the MYTD export to 8.129 MMT. At this point last season, weekly shipments had reached 14.78 MMT. 

USDA reported soybean harvest had progressed to 73% finished as of 10/24. That was up 13% points on the week and remains 3% points ahead of the average pace. 

Brazil’s Ag Rural reported soybean planting at 38% complete, which is the 2nd fastest pace on record. 

Nov 21 Soybeans  closed at $12.37 1/4, up 16 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $11.94, up 17 1/4 cents,

Jan 22 Soybeans  closed at $12.47, up 16 1/4 cents,

Mar 22 Soybeans  closed at $12.56 1/4, up 16 1/2 cents,

Cotton Prices Close with Gains

Rolls of Fabric from Cotton

After pulling back for midday, front month cotton bounced back to close black on the day. Prices hadn’t gotten back to their overnight highs but ended 34 to 43 points stronger. A stronger Dollar Index was of concern at midday, though had faded its strength in the afternoon. The stock market is moving to new all time highs (SPY) amid optimism about consumer spending and a major rally in (TSLA)

Crop Progress data showed 91% of cotton bolls were open as of 10/24. That matches the 5-yr average. Harvest trails the average pace, with 35% of cotton fields picked compared to 41%. Last week NASS data showed 28% of cotton was harvested. Crop condition ratings improved vs. week ago, with the Brugler500 Index up 4 points to 373. 

The 10/25 Daily Spot Quotations report showed 9,191 bales of cotton was sold. Cotlook A index for 10/22 was up 450 points weaker to 115.35. The week’s AWP for cotton is 92.8 cents. 

Dec 21 Cotton  closed at 108.54, up 28 points,

Mar 22 Cotton  closed at 106.56, up 37 points,

May 22 Cotton  closed at 105.51, up 34 points

Hog Futures Close Mixed on Monday

Piglets in a_ pasture

Hog trading to start the week resulted in gains between 15 and 32 cents, and losses of less than 42 cents. December hogs were the outlier, having closed 87 cents stronger, as contracts tightened the Dec to Feb carry to $2.57. USDA’s National Average Base hog price for Monday $63.66, after another $1.97 drop. CME’s 10/21 Lean Hog Index was back down by $1.13 to $83.70. 

Pork cutout futures closed the Monday session with 37 to 70 cent gains, save for a 2 cent dip in April ’22. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value for Monday afternoon was $3.69 lower to $94.58. Bellies and hams were large movers with a $13.27 gain and $18.86 pullback respectively. USDA estimated Monday’s FI hog slaughter at 478k head. That compares to 487k head last year. 

Dec 21 Hogs  closed at $74.200, up $0.875,

Apr 22 Hogs  closed at $80.675, down $0.200

Dec 21 Pork Cutout  closed at $91.900, up $0.700,

Corn Closes Firm on Monday

Corn Field Sunny Sky Shoots

Corn futures ended the session UNCH to fractionally higher in the 22/23 contracts. The December to December spread was a 4 3/4 cent premium for spot corn at the bell

Weekly Crop Progress data from NASS showed corn harvest was 66% complete as of 10/24. That was up from 52% last week, running nearly a week ahead of the 53% average pace. 

USDA reported 545,127 MT of corn was exported during the week that ended 1/21. That was down from 1.05 MMT last week and from 680k MT during the same week last season. Mexico was the week’s top destination. USDA noted accumulated corn exports had reached 4.713 MMT – or 185.5 mbu, which is still 57 mbu behind last season’s pace. 

Dec 21 Corn  closed at $5.38, unch,

Nearby Cash  was $5.16 5/6, up 1/8 cent,

Mar 22 Corn  closed at $5.46 3/4, unch,

May 22 Corn  closed at $5.50 1/2, down 1/4 cent,

Cattle Gain a Dollar Plus on CoF report

Cows in pen looking at camera

Live cattle futures followed the CoF report on Friday with triple digit gains. October fats were 92 cents higher, while the other front months were $1.05 to $1.25 in the black. Cash trade was slow on Monday. Last week’s cash market was mostly near $124, with some sales of up to $127 in the North. Feeder cattle futures ended the session with $1.25 to $1.57 gains. October was 20 cents higher ahead of Thursday’s expiration. November leads the way with a $2.27 gain. The 10/21 CME Feeder Cattle Index was 23 cents higher at $155.34.    

USDA quoted Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were higher in the afternoon report. Choice was up by $1.22 to $283.04 cwt. with rib primals up to $493.59 cwt. Select boxes were 8 cents stronger to $263.19 with $392.64 in ribs. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 122k head for Monday. That is up from 120k last week and 116k head last year.  

Dec 21 Cattle  closed at $129.525, up $1.200,

Feb 22 Cattle  closed at $134.750, up $1.250,

Nov 21 Feeder Cattle  closed at $158.475, up $1.575

Jan 22 Feeder Cattle  closed at $158.575, up $1.250

New LOC Highs for Wheat

Single stalk of wheat on white background

Monday’s wheat rally took contracts to new respective highs for KC and MPLS. CBT SRW futures ended with 3 1/2 to 7 cent gains. December SRW’s $7.86 is still intact, but the 2022/23 crop contracts set new highs, which for July was $7.64/bu. In KC, wheat prices closed 3 3/4 to 4 1/2 cents higher with $7.82 as the new December contract high. MPLS again led the way, gaining 0.87% to 1.47% on the day, and December trading at $10.31/bu. Oats Futures Prices  were lock limit higher, which for Dec set a new high of $6.92 1/4 per bushel.  

Crop Progress data showed winter wheat planting had reached 80% completion. That was a 10% advance from wk/wk and matches the 5-yr average. NASS also reported emergence above 50%, at 55%, for the 22/23 crop’s first condition scores. As of 10/24, NASS scored the winter wheat crop at 46% good/ex, or a Brugler500 conversion of 325. That compares with 41% last year, or a Brugler500 of 322. 

USDA reported wheat exports from the week that ended 10/21 at 140,413 MT. That was even with last week’s export, but down from 400k MT during the same week last year. HRW was the top variety, with 59k MT of the total, followed then by HRS with 45k MT. USDA’s weekly report showed accumulated wheat shipments still trail last season by 17% with 9.478 MMT shipped through 10/21. 

China reportedly sold 891,938 MT of wheat from state reserves last week. That made up ~88.5% of the offer, and reportedly went for 2,366 yuan//MT (~$371/MT). Ethiopia is tendering for 400k MT of wheat. Morocco is suspending their 135% import duties beginning Nov 1 for soft wheat and durum imports. 

Dec 21 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.59 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  was $7.09 2/3, up 3 1/2 cents,

Dec 21 KCBT Wheat  closed at $7.77 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  was $7.56 2/9, up 3 1/2 cents,

Dec 21 MGEX Wheat  closed at $10.27, up 14 cents,

Cattle Prices Rally Triple Digits

Cows in pen looking at camera

Live cattle futures are trading higher in the wake of the COF report, with at least $0.95 gains through June ’22. Feb is the strongest so far, while October is up $1.17 ahead of Friday’s expiration. Last week’s cash market was mostly near $124, with some sales of up to $127 in the North. Feeder cattle futures are also up by triple digits at Monday. November leads the way with a $2.27 gain. The 10/21 CME Feeder Cattle Index was 23 cents higher at $155.34.    

The monthly CoF report had 11.55m head on feed on 10/1, down by 1.43%. Placements were 2.87% below Sep 2020, and marketings were 3.09% lighter. 

USDA quoted Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were weaker out of the weekend. Choice was up $1.59 to $280.23, while Select was $0.92 higher to $262.19. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 661k head for the week through Saturday. 

Dec 21 Cattle  are at $129.800, up $1.475,

Feb 22 Cattle  are at $135.025, up $1.525,

Nov 21 Feeder Cattle  are at $159.175, up $2.275

Jan 22 Feeder Cattle  are at $159.200, up $1.875

Corn Firm but Red

Corn Field Sunny Sky Shoots__480x319

Midday corn futures are fractionally to 1 1/2 cents red for Monday as export business continues to under perform and rising ocean freight costs serve an additional friction on transactions. 

USDA reported 545,127 MT of corn was exported during the week that ended 1/21. That was down from 1.05 MMT last week and from 680k MT during the same week last season. Mexico was the week’s top destination. USDA noted accumulated corn exports had reached 4.713 MMT – or 185.5 mbu, which is still 57 mbu behind last season’s pace. 

Sorghum exports during the week were 80,090 MT. USDA data had that as a 42k MT increase form last week’s exports and a 6.5k MT increase compared to the same week last year. Accumulated sorghum exports were 417,594 MT as of 10/21. 

Dec 21 Corn  is at $5.36 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   is at $5.15 2/3, down 1 cents,

Mar 22 Corn  is at $5.45 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents,

May 22 Corn  is at $5.49 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

Hog Futures Trading Both Ways

Pig grazing in field

Hogs are mixed. Dec is the strongest mover, with a 77 cent midday gain, while the other nearbys are within 25 cents of UNCH. USDA’s National Average Base hog price for Monday morning was $63.64, after another 59 cent drop. CME’s 10/21 Lean Hog Index was back down by $1.13 to $83.70. 

Pork cutout futures are UNCH to 55 cents higher so far on light activity. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value for Monday morning was $2.24 stronger at $100.51. USDA’s weekly slaughter estimate was 2.606 million head through Saturday. That is down 19k from last week and 70k from the same week last season. 

Dec 21 Hogs  are at $74.100, up $0.775,

Apr 22 Hogs  are at $80.825, down $0.050

Dec 21 Pork Cutout  is at $91.750, up $0.550,

Beans Rallying on Monday

A hand scooping soybeans

So far soybean futures are trading 7 1/4 to 11 1/2 cents higher to start the new week. Meal futures are mostly weaker, giving back 20 to 80 cents/ton, save for a 20 cent gain in March ’22 contracts. Soybean oil prices are up by triple digits to 63.14 in Dec and 62.64 in Jan. 

Export Inspections data had 2.1 MMT of beans shipped during the week of 10/21. That was down from 2.45 MMT last week and from 2.89 MMT the same week last season. China was the top destination for the week’s soybean exports, with 1.54 MMT or 73% of the total. USDA also added 152,859 MT of beans to past reports, which brought he MYTD export to 8.129MMT. At this point last season, weekly shipments had reached 14.78 MMT. 

Brazil’s Ag Rural reported soybean planting at 38% complete, which is the 2nd fastest pace on record.  Traders expect USDA to show soybean harvest still running 6 to 8% ahead of the five year average pace, although some areas were shut down over the weekend by Midwest rains. 

Nov 21 Soybeans  are at $12.30 3/4, up 10 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash  is at $11.87 1/5, up 10 3/8 cents,

Jan 22 Soybeans  are at $12.41 1/4, up 10 1/2 cents,

Mar 22 Soybeans  are at $12.51 1/4, up 11 1/2 cents,

Wheats Continuing Higher

Wheat bence-balla-schottner-b1FS5jQrsLo-unsplash

Midday wheat prices continue their upswing to new contract highs. MPLS is leading the way with 0.48% to 0.8% gain so far. CBT SRW futures are 0.3% to 0.4% in the black. HRW is fractionally mixed so far as new crop contracts are fading. 

USDA reported wheat exports from the week that ended 10/21 at 140,413 MT. That was even with last week’s export, but down from 400k MT during the same week last year. HRW was the top variety, with 59k MT of the total, followed then by HRS with 45k MT. USDA’s weekly report showed accumulated wheat shipments still trail last season by 17% with 9.478 MMT shipped through 10/21. 

China reportedly sold 891,938 MT of wheat from state reserves last week. That made up ~88.5% of the offer, and reportedly went for 2,366 yuan//MT (~$371/MT). Ethiopia is tendering for 400k MT of wheat. 

Dec 21 CBOT Wheat  is at $7.58 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  is at $7.09, up 2 3/4 cents,

Dec 21 KCBT Wheat  is at $7.75 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  is at $7.53 1/2, up 7/8 cent,

Dec 21 MGEX Wheat  is at $10.21 1/4, up 8 1/4 cents,

Cotton Fades for Midday

Cotton fabric with texture

Midday cotton prices are red by 5 to 33 points as the daylight trading has worked to fade the overnight gains. A stronger US dollar index gets some of the blame for the selling interest. The stock market is moving to new all time highs (S&P) amid optimism about consumer spending. 

The DSQ from 10/21 showed 6,322 bales sold. Cotlook A index for 10/22 was up 450 points weaker to 115.35. The week’s AWP for cotton is 92.8 cents. 

Dec 21 Cotton  is at 107.93, down 33 points,

Mar 22 Cotton  is at 106.14, down 5 points,

May 22 Cotton  is at 105, down 17 points

Wheat Futures Extend Rally, Testing Contract Highs

Wheat field on a beautiful summer day

Wheat markets are continuing their advance in the Monday session, up 6 to 8 cents. On Friday, wheat futures set new contract highs in HRW and HRS. For KC wheat going into the weekend, futures were 1.7% to 3.5% higher with Dec’s new LOC high at $7.75. Word that a commercial had cancelled 1,165 delivery receipts firmed the market. For spring wheat, prices closed 1% to 2.8% higher on the day pulling Dec above $10 for the first time since 2012. CBT SRW prices were 1.2% to 1.99% higher, extending the December contracts rally to 22 cents for the week.  

French wheat planting reached 40% as of 10/18. That was a week’s advancement of 27% points and is now even with last season’s pace, according to data from FranceAgriMer. The Ukrainian Ag Ministry reported grain harvest at 76.5% complete as of 10/22, which includes 56.3 MMT of wheat collected. Russia’s variable rate export tax is calculated at $67/MT next week, up another $6. 

The IGC left global wheat output at 781 MMT for the 2021/22 season. That’s up from 773 MMT last season. Trade was increased by 3 MMT, though carryout was only dropped by 1 MMT to 276 in the October forecast. 

CFTC data indicated managed money was 17,738 contracts net short in SRW on 10/19. That was 9,192 contracts more net short on the week. The CoT report showed HRW spec traders were 47,390 contracts net long. That was little changed from the week prior. Managed money firms were 16,320 contracts net long in MPLS wheat, a modest 424 contract increase. 

Dec 21 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.56, up 14 3/4 cents, and up 8 ½ this morning

Cash SRW Wheat  was $7.06 2/9 on Friday, up 14 3/4 cents,

Dec 21 KCBT Wheat  closed at $7.74, up 26 1/4 cents, and up 6 ¼ this morning

Cash HRW Wheat  was $7.52 4/7 on Friday, up 26 3/4 cents,

Dec 21 MGEX Wheat  closed at $10.13, up 27 3/4 cents, and up 7 ¼ this morning

Hogs Grind Lower As Managed Money Trims Long Position

Cute pink pig looking in pasture

Lean hog futures faded Friday afternoon and closed with 5 to 50 cent losses. December managed to stay 12 cents higher on the day, though that month was still down $4.95 from Friday to Friday. USDA’s National Average Base hog price for Friday morning was back up by 20 cents to $65.63. CME’s 10/20 Lean Hog Index was $1.06 stronger to $84.83. 

Lean hog managed money spec traders were 6,232 contracts less net long wk/wk. The CoT report confirmed long liquidation left the group still 62,400 contracts net long as of October 19. 

Pork cutout futures were 10 to 20 cents lower at Friday’s close. May ’22 contracts ended with a 42 cent gain though OI was only 2 as of 10/21. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value for Friday’s PM update was $98.27 cwt. which was just a penny lower. USDA’s weekly slaughter estimate was 2.606 million head, down 19k from the previous week and 70k from the same week last season. 

Dec 21 Hogs  closed at $73.325, up $0.125,

Apr 22 Hogs  closed at $80.875, down $0.250

Dec 21 Pork Cutout  closed at $91.225, down $0.100

Cattle Futures Dipped Ahead of Bull Friendly COF Report

Brown and white spotted cow with ear tag

Cattle futures settled $0.87 to $1.27 lower ahead of the Cattle on Feed report release Friday afternoon. Catch up cash business on Friday resulted in light $124 activity. Feeder cattle futures ended the session with $2.17 to $2.67 losses. The 10/20 CME Feeder Cattle Index was $155.11 after a $1.08 boost.    

NASS reported 11.55 million head of cattle on 1,000+ capacity lots on 10/1. That was down 1.43% from October 2020’s inventory, a larger than expected drop. Placements had a yr/yr drop off of 2.87% - when the trade was looking for a 1.4% boost. Marketings were 3.09% lighter yr/yr, while the trade was looking for a 2.5% drop from Sep 2020. 

USDA quoted Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were higher in the PM update. Choice was up $1.16 to $281.82, while Select was $0.39 higher to $263.11. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 661k head for the week through Saturday. 

Dec 21 Cattle  closed at $128.325, down $1.225,

Feb 22 Cattle  closed at $133.500, down $1.275,

Nov 21 Feeder Cattle  closed at $156.900, down $2.175

Jan 22 Feeder Cattle  closed at $157.325, down $2.675

Cotton Futures Up 73 to 85 Points On Slow Ginnings, Inflation Ideas

Cotton Field

Cotton futures are 73 to 85 points higher to start the new week. The inflation trade is alive and well. Cotton prices bounced back on Friday with 92 to 212 point gains into the weekend. For the week, December cotton was 81 points higher but traded within a huge 6.1 cent/lb (610 point) range. 

CFTC data showed managed money was 81,427 contracts net long in cotton as of 10/19. That was a weekly draw down of 6,018 contracts, driven mostly by long liquidation. Commercial cotton traders were 165,777 contracts net short, that was 8,956 contracts less net short on the week reflecting short covering. 

USDA’s cotton ginnings report showed 1.108m bales had been ginned through 10/15. That is the slowest ginnings pace since 2013/14. Ginnings are 52% behind the 5-yr average. 

The DSQ from 10/21 showed 6,322 bales sold. Cotlook A index for 10/21 was up by 280 points to 119.85 cents. The AWP for cotton was 8 points lower to 92.8 cents/lb. 

Dec 21 Cotton  closed at 108.26, up 212 points, and up 84 this morning

Mar 22 Cotton  closed at 106.19, up 204 points, and up 78 this morning

May 22 Cotton  closed at 105.17, up 193 points, and up 85 this morning

Corn Board Up 1 to 2 Cents Early Monday

Corn Field Blue Sky

Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher to start the new week. Friday’s 3 to 5 3/4 cent gains left December 12 1/4 cents higher from the week’s open. USDA’s cash average corn oil price through the week ending 10/22 range from 62.92 cents/lb in NE to 63.75 cents in the ECB. That was up from 61 – 61.75 cents LW. 

CFTC had managed money funds at 219,568 contracts net long in corn on the 19th. That was down 8,363 contracts wk/wk as the spec longs closed faster than the shorts. Commercial traders added to their positions in that reporting week. New end user longs outweighed the new sellers for a net 2,831 contract reduction to the net short at 452,719. 

Ahead of the Crop Progress report, the trade is looking to see harvest at 65-66% complete, ahead of the 53% average pace. 

Corn planting in Argentina reached 26.3% completion according to BAGE. That was only 3.1% points above last week’s area. Chinese corn futures appear to have put in a harvest low and are trading at roughly $10.29 per bushel. That makes imports “work” if they need the corn. 

Dec 21 Corn  closed at $5.38, up 5 3/4 cents, up 2 cents this morning

Nearby Cash  was $5.16 2/3 on Friday, up 5 5/8 cents,

Mar 22 Corn  closed at $5.46 3/4, up 5 1/4 cents, up 1 ½ this morning

May 22 Corn  closed at $5.50 3/4, up 5 cents, up 1 this morning

Soybeans Higher in Early Monday Trading

Soy Milk plant based alternative

Monday soy trading has futures 8 to 9 cents higher early. Thursday and Friday drops were not enough to offset the early week gains, but November was only up 2 3/4 cents from Friday to Friday on a 28 cent range week. Soymeal futures went into the weekend with $1.80 to $3.40 gains, which for December completed the week with a $10.30 gain. Soybean oil futures were 49 to 53 points in the red at the bell on Friday. 

Ahead of the weekly Crop Progress report, traders expect NASS to show soybean harvest 75 to 76%%  complete and ahead of the 70% average pace. 

Commitment of Traders data showed bean spec traders were 18,165 contracts net long on 10/19. That was down by another 10.9k contracts reflected net new selling. Commercial soybean traders were 99,486 contracts net short as a group. That is the lightest commercial net short since February 2020, reflecting limited cash bean ownership.  

The October forecast from the International Grains Council left their production output at 380 MMT for 21/22 beans. That is still a 14 MMT increase from 20/21. Carryover was seen 3 MMT higher than their prior estimate, up 9 MMT from 20/21. 

Nov 21 Soybeans  closed at $12.20 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents, up 8 ½ this morning

Nearby Cash  was $11.76 2/3 on Friday, down 3 7/8 cents,

Jan 22 Soybeans  closed at $12.30 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents, up 9 ¼ this morning

Mar 22 Soybeans  closed at $12.39 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents, up 9 ½ this morning

Soybeans Giveback More on Friday

fresh soy beans__480x320

Soybean prices for this week topped on Wednesday with a fade into the weekend. Thursday and Friday drops were not enough to offset the early week gains, as beans go home 2 3/4 cents higher than last Friday’s close. However, November was 29 cents below the midweek high. Soymeal futures went into the weekend with $1.80 to $3.40 gains, which for December completed the week with a $10.30 gain. Soybean oil futures were 49 to 53 points in the red at the bell on Friday. Crude Oil futures rallied through the afternoon recovering from the earlier pullback this week and took the rally to $84+/bbl. USDA’s National Daily Ethanol report showed a 70 cent/gal jump in biodiesel price through the week that ended 10/22. The average price in IA is now $5.72/gal.

Commitment of Traders data showed bean spec traders were 18,165 contracts net long on 10/19. That was down by another 10.9k contracts reflected net new selling. Commercial soybean traders reduced their hedges through the week, leaving them 99,486 contracts net short as a group. That is the lightest commercial net short since February 2020. 

For the products, CFTC reported managed money firms at 32,159 contracts net short on 10/19. That is 8,165 contracts less net short from the week prior on short covering. BO specs were 9,227 contracts more net long on net new buying to 82,211 contracts. That left the group the most net long since June. 

The October forecast from the International Grains Council left their production output at 380 MMT for 21/22 beans. That is still a 14 MMT increase from 20/21. Carryover was seen 3 MMT higher than their prior estimate, though up 9 MMT from 20/21. 

NOAA’s updated 7-day QPF shows a rain band of up to 4” running across southern IA to the Western border of OH. Surrounding areas will also get rain of +3/4”, though the WCB and Northern Plains will remain mostly dry through the next week. 

Nov 21 Soybeans  closed at $12.20 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $11.76 2/3, down 3 7/8 cents,

Jan 22 Soybeans  closed at $12.30 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents,

Mar 22 Soybeans  closed at $12.39 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents,

Cattle Futures Drop Triple Digits into Report

Close up of brown cow in pasture__480x320

Afternoon selling into the CoF report left the cattle board $0.87 to $1.27 in the red. Catch up cash business on Friday resulted in light $124 activity. USDA confirmed the week’s bulk was $124 in the South and from $124 - $126.50 in the North. Feeder cattle futures ended the session with $2.17 to $2.67 losses. The 10/20 CME Feeder Cattle Index was $155.11 after a $1.08 boost.    

Commitment of Traders data showed managed money closed 4,948 shorts and added 4,310 longs for a 9.3k contract boost to the groups net long. In feeders, managed money funds were 923 contracts less net short at 331 contracts as of 10/19. 

NASS reported 11.55 million head of cattle on 1,000+ capacity lots on 10/1. That was down 1.43% from October 2020’s inventory, a larger than expected drop. Getting there saw a 2.16m head placed against the 1.79m head marketed from Sep’s 11.234m head inventory. For placements that was a yr/yr drop off of 2.87% - when the trade was looking for a 1.4% boost. Marketings were 3.09% lighter yr/yr, while the trade was looking for a 2.5% drop from Sep 2020. 

USDA quoted Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were higher in the PM update. Choice was up $1.16 to $281.82, while Select was $0.39 higher to $263.11. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 661k head for the week through Saturday. YTD slaughter remains 3.1% ahead of last season’s pace with 26.94m head.   

Dec 21 Cattle  closed at $128.325, down $1.225,

Feb 22 Cattle  closed at $133.500, down $1.275,

Nov 21 Feeder Cattle  closed at $156.900, down $2.175

Jan 22 Feeder Cattle  closed at $157.325, down $2.675

Hogs Close in Red

Pigs feeding from trough in pen

After an attempted bounce into the weekend, lean hog futures faded in the afternoon and closed with 5 to 50 cent losses. December managed to stay 12 cents higher on the day, though contracts were still down $4.95 from Friday to Friday. USDA’s National Average Base hog price for Friday morning was back up by 20 cents to $65.63. CME’s 10/20 Lean Hog Index was $1.06 stronger to $84.83. 

Lean hog spec traders were 6,232 contracts less net long wk/wk as of 10/19. The CoT report confirmed long liquidation left the group 62,400 contracts net long. 

Pork cutout futures were 10 to 20 cents lower at Friday’s close. May ’22 contracts ended with a 42 cent gain though OI was only 2 as of 10/21. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value for Friday’s PM update was $98.27 cwt. which was just a penny lower. USDA’s weekly slaughter estimate was 2.606 million head through Saturday. That is down 19k from last week and 70k from the same week last season. YTD hog slaughter remains 1.9% behind 2020’s pace with 103.6m head.

Dec 21 Hogs  closed at $73.325, up $0.125,

Apr 22 Hogs  closed at $80.875, down $0.250

Dec 21 Pork Cutout  closed at $91.225, down $0.100,

Cotton Recovered on Friday

Cotton - jordan-jensen-RTDb00SNeKA-unsplash

Cotton prices bounced back with 92 to 212 point gains into the weekend. For the week, December cotton was 81 points higher but traded within a huge 6.1 cent/lb (610 point) range. Dollar Index is up on Thursday, but down again on Friday.  

CFTC data showed managed money was 81,427 contracts net long in cotton as of 10/19. That was a weekly draw down of 6,018 contracts, driven mostly by long liquidation. Commercial cotton traders were 165,777 contracts net short, that was 8,956 contracts less net short on the week reflecting short covering. 

USDA’s glance into cotton ginnings showed 1.108m bales had been ginned through 10/15. That is the slowest ginnings pace since 2013/14, though harvest has been ~6% behind the 5-yr average pace. 

The DSQ from 10/21 showed 6,322 bales sold. Cotlook A index for 10/21 was up by 280 points to 119.85 cents. The AWP for cotton was 8 points lower to 92.8 cents/lb. 

Dec 21 Cotton  closed at 108.26, up 212 points,

Mar 22 Cotton  closed at 106.19, up 204 points,

May 22 Cotton  closed at 105.17, up 193 points

Corn Futures Up for Weekend

beautiful landscape of sunset over corn field

Corn prices worked mostly higher through the week, with weakness on Tuesday and Thursday to limit the overall move. Friday’s 3 to 5 3/4 cent gains left December 12 1/4 cents higher from the week’s open. USDA’s cash average corn oil price through the week ending 10/22 range from 62.92 cents/lb in NE to 63.75 cents in the ECB. That was up from 61 – 61.75 cents LW. DDGS prices were firm to $4/ton higher on the week with PNW prices now $258/ton FOB. 

CFTC data had managed money funds at 219,568 contracts net long in corn on the 19th. That is down 8,363 contracts wk/wk as the spec longs closed faster than the shorts. Commercial traders added to their position, end user longs outweighed the new sellers for a net 2,831 contract reduction to the net short at 452,719. 

The International Grains Council forecasts 21/22 corn production at 1,210 MMT. That is up 1 MMT form their prior forecast, and up 84 MMT yr/yr. Stocks were raised by 3 MMT to 285 MMT, which is now 9 MMT above 2020/21.

FranceAgriMer reported corn harvest at 32% complete. That is up 17% points on the week, but still trails last year’s pace – which was 75% complete. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported harvest for fall grains was 76.5% complete, including 11.2 MMT of corn. 

Corn planting in Argentina reached 26.3% completion according to BAGE. That was only 3.1% points above last week’s area. 

Dec 21 Corn  closed at $5.38, up 5 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $5.16 2/3, up 5 5/8 cents,

Mar 22 Corn  closed at $5.46 3/4, up 5 1/4 cents,

May 22 Corn  closed at $5.50 3/4, up 5 cents,

Wheat Markets Rally on Friday

Wheat marcin-kempa-97WoWlUoM0M-unsplash

Domestic wheat futures set new contract highs on the last trade day of the week. December HRW futures were 1.7% to 3.5% higher with Dec’s new LOC high at $7.75. For spring wheat, prices closed 1% to 2.8% higher on the day pulling Dec above $10 for the first time since 2012. CBT SRW prices were 1.2% to 1.99% higher, extending the December contracts rally to 22 cents for the week.  

NOAA’s updated 7-day QPF shows a rain band of up to 4” running across southern IA to the Western border of OH. Surrounding areas will also get rain of +3/4” slowing down the SRW planting. HRW area in the South will have a mostly dry week, with some rain ( > 3/4”) along the Eastern borders of NE, KS, and OK. 

French wheat planting reached 40% as of 10/18. That was a week’s advancement of 27% points and is now even with last season’s pace, according to data from FranceAgriMer. The Ukrainian Ag Ministry reported grain harvest at 76.5% complete as of 10/22, which includes 56.3 MMT of wheat collected. Russia’s variable rate export tax is calculated at $67/MT next week, up another $6. 

The IGC left global wheat output at 781 MMT for the 2021/22 season. That’s up from 773 MMT last season. Trade was increased by 3 MMT, though carryout was only dropped by 1 MMT to 276 in the October forecast. 

CFTC data indicated managed money was 17,738 contracts net short in SRW on 10/19. That was 9,192 contracts more net short on the week given new sellers. The CoT report showed HRW spec traders were 47,390 contracts net long. That was little changed from the week prior. Managed money firms were 16,320 contracts net long in MPLS wheat, that was a 424 contract boost on light new buying and even lighter short covering. 

Dec 21 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.56, up 14 3/4 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  was $7.06 2/9, up 14 3/4 cents,

Dec 21 KCBT Wheat  closed at $7.74, up 26 1/4 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  was $7.52 4/7, up 26 3/4 cents,

Dec 21 MGEX Wheat  closed at $10.13, up 27 3/4 cents,

Wheats Regain Double Digits for Friday

Wheat field on a beautiful summer day

So far wheat futures are back up by double digits. Chicago SRW prices are 7 3/4 to 12 3/4 cents in the black. HRW futures are trading 7 3/4 to 20 cents higher at midday. For December that has the board at new Contract highs. Minneapolis’ 10 to 21 1/4 cent midday gains are also printing new contract highs as the December contract breached $10/bu for the first time since 2012. 

NOAA’s updated 7-day QPF shows a rain band of up to 4” running across southern IA to the Western border of OH. Surrounding areas will also get rain of +3/4” slowing down the SRW planting. HRW area in the South will have a mostly dry week, with some rain ( > 3/4”) along the Eastern borders of NE, KS, and OK. 

French wheat planting reached 40% as of 10/18. That was a week’s advancement of 27% points and is now even with last season’s pace, according to data from FranceAgriMer. The Ukrainian Ag Ministry reported grain harvest at 76.5% complete as of 10/22, which includes 56.3 MMT of wheat collected. 

The IGC left global wheat output at 781 MMT for the 2021/22 season. That’s up from 773 MMT last season. Trade was increased by 3 MMT, though carryout was only dropped by 1 MMT to 276 in the October forecast. 

Dec 21 CBOT Wheat  is at $7.54 1/4, up 13 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  is at $7.04 5/9, up 13 1/8 cents,

Dec 21 KCBT Wheat  is at $7.68 1/4, up 20 1/2 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  is at $7.46 2/7, up 20 3/8 cents,

Dec 21 MGEX Wheat  is at $10.06 1/2, up 21 1/4 cents,

Hog Futures Climbing through Midday

Piglets in a_ pasture

So far lean hog futures are in the black by 15 to 50 cents. USDA’s National Average Base hog price for Friday morning was another 96 cents weaker to $64.23. CME’s Lean Hog Index was 74 cents weaker to $85.89 on 10/19. 

Pork cutout futures are firm to 42 cents higher at midday on light volume and OI. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value for Friday’s AM update was $102.38 after a $4.10 bump. Hams were up the most, gaining back $18.73 cwt. to $88.73. USDA’s weekly slaughter estimate was 1.907 million head through Thursday. That was 3,000 head above last week’s pace but compares to 1.947m for the same week last season. 

Dec 21 Hogs  are at $73.475, up $0.275,

Apr 22 Hogs  are at $81.500, up $0.375

Dec 21 Pork Cutout  is at $91.450, up $0.125,

Cotton Recovering by Triple Digits

Cotton - kolya-korzh-zrVY4blkWI4-unsplash

Midday cotton futures are back up 124 to 166 points after the 4 cent losses on Thursday. Dollar Index is firm to lower this morning. 

Cotton export sales during the week ending 10/14 were 391,796 RBs. That was up 167% from the week prior, and 72% above the same week last year. China was the top buyer with 272.8k RBs bought. That left China’s 21/22 commitments at 2.36m RBs. That is still down 27% yr/yr as 29% of the total. Shipments to China account for 21% of the total 1.85m RBs. 

The DSQ from 10/21 showed 6,322 bales sold. Cotlook A index for 10/21 was up by 280 points to 119.85 cents. The AWP for cotton was 8 points lower to 92.8 cents/lb. 

Dec 21 Cotton  is at 107.62, up 148 points,

Mar 22 Cotton  is at 105.58, up 143 points,

May 22 Cotton  is at 104.52, up 128 points

Corn Prices Recovering through Midday

american corn farmland blue sky-

Friday’s corn market has the board recovering 3 1/2 to 4 3/4 cents so far. New crop prices are firm to fractionally lower allowing for the Dec to Dec inverse to grow to 6 3/4 cents. The December to Mach delivery months still have an 8 1/2 cent carry on the board. 

The International Grains Council forecasts 21/22 corn production at 1,210 MMT. That is up 1 MMT form their prior forecast, and up 84 MMT yr/yr. Stocks were raised by 3 MMT to 285 MMT, which is now 9 MMT above 2020/21.

FranceAgriMer reported corn harvest at 32% complete. That is up 17% points on the week, but still trails last year’s pace – which was 75% complete. 

Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported harvest for fall grains was 76.5% complete, including 11.2 MMT of corn. 

Corn planting in Argentina reached 26.3% completion according to BAGE. That was only 3.1% points above last week’s area. 

Dec 21 Corn  is at $5.36 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash  is at $5.15 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents,

Mar 22 Corn  is at $5.45 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

May 22 Corn  is at $5.49, up 3 1/4 cents,

Soy Extending Losses

young soy bean growing summertime

Bean futures are down another 2 1/4 to 3 3/4 cents nearby through Friday’s midday. The new crop futures are down harder, with 8 1/2 to 9 1/4 cent losses – leaving the Nov to Nov spread at just a 3 cent carry. The November to Jan carry was 9 3/4 cents at midday. Soymeal futures are trading $1.20 to $1.90 higher so far. BO futures are extending the Thurdsay draw down with another 37 to 42 point losses. Crude Oil futures are firmer again on Friday after recovering from the pullback and resuming the rally to $83+/bbl. 

The October forecast from the International Grains Council left their production output at 380 MMT for 21/22 beans. That is still a 14 MMT increase from 20/21. Carryover was 3 MMT higher from their prior estimate, though 9 MMT up from 20/21. 

NOAA’s updated 7-day QPF shows a rain band of up to 4” running across southern IA to the Western border of OH. Surrounding areas will also get rain of +3/4”, though the WCB and Northern Plains will remain mostly dry through the next week. 

Nov 21 Soybeans  are at $12.21, down 3 cents,

Nearby Cash   is at $11.77 2/9, down 3 3/8 cents,

Jan 22 Soybeans  are at $12.30 1/2, down 3 cents,

Mar 22 Soybeans  are at $12.40, down 3 1/2 cents,

Cattle Market Red for Friday

Angus Cow

So far fat cattle futures are down 52 to 80 cents at midday. USDA reported cash trade for the week was wide ranged from $123 - $127 on Wednesday. Feeder cattle futures are down by triple digits so far, giving back $192 to $2.30. The 10/19 CME Feeder Cattle Index was $154.03 after a 7 cent dip.   

Ahead of this afternoon’s CoF report, analysts are looking for approximately 11.647m head on feed on October 1. That comes from an average expectation of a 0.6% draw down from 10/1/2020’s inventory. Placements are expected to be 1.4% above Sep 2020. September marketings are estimated to have dropped off 2.5% yr/yr. 

USDA quoted Wholesale Boxed Beef prices at $281.64 and $263.39 this morning. For choice that was a 98 cent boost, and for Select that was a 67 cent bump. USDA estimated federally inspected cattle slaughter for the week through Thursday at 482,000 head. That’s up 2k from last week and 3k from the same week last year.   

Dec 21 Cattle  are at $128.950, down $0.600,

Feb 22 Cattle  are at $134.075, down $0.700,

Nov 21 Feeder Cattle  are at $157.200, down $1.875

Jan 22 Feeder Cattle  are at $157.800, down $2.200

Soybean Complex Higher in Early Friday Trade

Rows of soybeans in a field

Friday’s soy market starts out higher, with beans up 2 to 4 cents and the products also in the plus column. Preliminary OI suggests the 20 cent drops yesterday included net new selling in the January soybean contract, with overall OI up 6,955 contracts. Long liquidation was noted in the November. November soybean options expire today. 

cmdtyView data shows the Eastern Corn Belt (ECB’s) bean basis at 42 3/4 cents under Nov, compared to -39 cents at the start of the week, -47 at the start of the month, and -33 cents last year. WCB was seen at 44 cents under Nov. That is down for the week, but 3 cents firmer since the start of October. Last season’s October 20 bean basis in the WCB was 63 1/2 cents under. 

Soymeal futures closed the day with losses of $3.70 to $4.40/ton. BO futures gave back 2.79% to 3.3%. Malaysian Palm Prices fell back more than 200 ringgits after setting new all time highs, and closed red at 5,209 ringgits on Thursday. 

USDA reported soybean export sales at 2.88 MMT for the week that ended 10/14. That was a new MY high, and included 1.515 MMT of previously announced business. China was listed as the week’s top buyer with 1.88 MMT, though 526k MT of it were previously reported as unknown and 54k MT were reported late. China’s 21/22 bean commitments were at 14.964 MMT as of 10/14. That represents 51.1% of the total but is down 40% yr/yr. Total soybean commitments sit at 29.27 MMT, compared to 45.4 MMT at this point last season. 

As for the products, USDA reported meal sales at 240,380 MT. That was within the range of estimates and up 58% from the same week last year. Soymeal shipments are running double last season’s clip with 517k MT shipped MYTD through 10/14. Export Sales data for soybean oil showed 3,001 MT were booked. 

Nov 21 Soybeans  closed at $12.24, down 21 1/2 cents, and up 4 cents this morning

Nearby Cash  was $11.80 3/5 yesterday down 22 1/8 cents,

Jan 22 Soybeans  closed at $12.33 1/2, down 21 1/2 cents, and up 3 ¼ this morning

Mar 22 Soybeans  closed at $12.43 1/2, down 20 3/4 cents, and up 3 ¼ this morning

Corn Futures Correct Against Thursday Correction

Corn Ear of Sweet__480x320

Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents higher this morning, a rebound after some Thursday profit taking. Front month corn futures gave back 4 1/4 to 7 cents on Thursday. That left the December to December spread at a 2 1/4 cent inverse. The ECB basis was firm for Thursday but weaker for the week to 30.25 cents under Dec. cmdtyView data showed the WCB basis has remained firm through the week at minus 18 1/2 cents. 

The weekly Export Sales report showed 1.27 MMT of corn booked during the week of 10/14. That included 161k MT of previously known business to unknown. Unknown destinations was also the largest buyer with a total of 456,700 MT booked. Mexico and Japan followed with 377k and 230k MT booked. Total outstanding sales are 6.5% ahead of last season’s pace with 24.44 MMTs on the books. Exports, after the first +1 MMT week for the season, reached 4.46 MMT as of 10/14. That trails last season’s pace by 17%. 

The International Grains Council (IGC) raised their estimate of world corn production 1 MMT to 1.21 billion metric tonnes. 

Mexico’s Ag Minister told Secretary of Ag Tom Vilsack that Mexico will not restrict imports of U.S. genetically modified corn but continue to prohibit planting of same within the country. 

Dec 21 Corn  closed at $5.32 1/4, down 7 cents,  up 4 1/2 this morning

Nearby Cash  was $5.10 on Thursday, down 7 1/4 cents,

Mar 22 Corn  closed at $5.41 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents, up 3 ½ this morning

May 22 Corn  closed at $5.45 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents, up 3 ¼ this morning

Wheat Rallies Early Friday, Led by KC HRW

Wheat field on a beautiful summer day

Wheat trading begins Friday with double digit gains in nearby KC and MPLS futures, erasing the Thursday losses. Yesterday, wheat markets went home with some double digit losses. CBT futures ended with 5 1/2 to 8 cent losses. Kansas City prices were 11 to 12 1/4 cents in the red. Spring wheat prices closed 4 1/2 cents to 7 1/2 cents red. 

USDA had wheat export bookings at 362,374 MT for the week that ended 10/14. That was within the range of estimates but down 37% from the week prior. The shipments were a 16 week low, and down 27% from the same week last year. Accumulated exports now trail last season’s pace by 28% with 8.37 MMT shipped through 10/14. The IGC left their world wheat production estimate UNCH from last month. 

Dec 21 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.41 1/4, down 8 cents, and up 9 ¼ this morning

Cash SRW Wheat  was $6.91 4/9 Thursday, down 8 1/4 cents,

Dec 21 KCBT Wheat  closed at $7.47 3/4, down 12 cents, up 15 cents this morning

Cash HRW Wheat  was $7.25 7/8 Thursday, down 11 1/8 cents,

Dec 21 MGEX Wheat  closed at $9.85 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents, but up 10 cents this morning

Hogs Retreat on Poor Weekly Export Sales Numbers

Piglets napping

Lean hog futures fell $1.77 to $2.82 on Thursday. USDA’s National Average Base hog price was $65.43 after dropping another $1.50. CME’s Lean Hog Index was 74 cents weaker to $85.89 on 10/19. 

Export Sales data from the USDA’s FAS had pork bookings at 20.9k MT for the week ending 10/14. That was down 37% from the week prior, and down 22% from the same week last year. Mexico was the top buyer for the week, booking 10.2k MT. USDA had accumulated exports at 1.44 MMT through 10/14, now down 3% yr/yr. 

Pork cutout futures were also down $1.92 to $2.47 on the day. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was $1.41 stronger on Thursday, up to $98.28. USDA’s weekly slaughter estimate was 1.907 million head through Thursday. That was 3,000 head above last week’s pace but compares to 1.947m for the same week last season. 

Feb 22 Hogs  closed at $76.675, down $2.550,

Apr 22 Hogs  closed at $81.125, down $2.300

Feb 22 Pork Cutout  closed at $90.700, down $2.475,

Cattle Futures Shed a Little of the Premium to Cash

two cows on green pasture

Live cattle futures worked $0.75 to $0.97 lower on Thursday. Cash trade for the week has run $123 - $127. Central Stockyard’s second FCE auction resulted in no sales. Packers bid mostly $122, but up to $124, while feed lots were looking for $124-$125. Feeder cattle prices ended the session 27 to 50 cents weaker. The 10/19 CME Feeder Cattle Index was $154.03 after a 7 cent dip.   

Ahead of this afternoon’s CoF report, analysts are looking for approximately 11.647m head on feed on October 1. That comes from an average expectation of a 0.6% draw down from October 2020’s inventory. Placements are expected to be 1.4% above Sep 2020. September marketings are estimated to have dropped off 2.5% yr/yr. 

USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed beef bookings during the week ending 10/14 were a calendar year low of 7,809 MT. Those accumulated YTD shipments remain 16.6% ahead of 2020’s pace through 10/14. 

Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were mixed with a 63 cent stronger Choice and an 8 cent pull back in Select. USDA estimated federally inspected cattle slaughter for the week through Thursday at 482,000 head. That’s up 2k from last week and 3k from the same week last year.   

Dec 21 Cattle  closed at $129.550, down $0.975,

Feb 22 Cattle  closed at $134.775, down $0.825,

Nov 21 Feeder Cattle  closed at $159.075, down $0.275

Jan 22 Feeder Cattle  closed at $160.000, down $0.475

Cotton Futures Bouncing After Down Day on Thursday

Cotton Plant with Multiple Pieces

Cotton price action continues to be volatile, with overnight gains of 159 to 179 points after >440 point losses yesterday. After the midweek rally left cotton nearly 300 points higher, Thursday’s session fell back 428 to 459 points. Dollar Index was back higher on Thursday. 

Cotton export sales during the week ending 10/14 were 391,796 RBs. That was up 167% from the week prior, and 72% above the same week last year. China was the top buyer with 272.8k RBs bought. That left China’s 21/22 commitments at 2.36m RBs. That is still down 27% yr/yr as 29% of the total. Shipments to China account for 21% of the total 1.85m RBs. 

The online cotton trading platform The Seam reported 6,822 bales sold on 10/20 for 107.26 cents. The DSQ from 10/21 showed 6,322 bales sold. Cotlook A index was 117.05 cents/lb on 10/20 after a 85 point reduction. The AWP for cotton was 8 points lower to 92.8 cents/lb. 

Dec 21 Cotton  closed at 106.14, down 459 points, up 161 this morning

Mar 22 Cotton  closed at 104.15, down 448 points, up 159 this morning

May 22 Cotton  closed at 103.24, down 440 points, up 170 this morning

Cattle Fade on Thursday

Angus Cow

Through Thursday’s session live cattle futures worked $0.75 to $0.97 weaker. USDA reported cash trade for the week was wide ranged from $123 - $127 on Wednesday. Central Stockyard’s second FCE auction resulted in no sales. packers bid mostly $122, but up to $124, while feed lots were looking for $124-$125. Feeder cattle prices ended the session 27 to 50 cents weaker. The 10/19 CME Feeder Cattle Index was $154.03 after a 7 cent dip.   

USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed beef bookings during the week ending 10/14 were a calendar year low of 7,809 MT. Export shipments from the week were 17,05 MT, which left the MYTD total at 736,985. Those accumulated shipments remain 16.6% ahead of 2020’s pace through 10/14. 

Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were mixed with a 63 cent stronger Choice and an 8 cent pull back in Select. USDA estimated federally inspected cattle slaughter for the week through Thursday at 482,000 head. That’s up 2k from last week and 3k from the same week last year.   

Dec 21 Cattle  closed at $129.550, down $0.975,

Feb 22 Cattle  closed at $134.775, down $0.825,

Nov 21 Feeder Cattle  closed at $159.075, down $0.275

Jan 22 Feeder Cattle  closed at $160.000, down $0.475

Wheats Drop Double Digits

Field of wheat at golden hour

The Thursday wheat market went home with some double digit losses. CBT futures ended with 5 1/2 to 8 cent losses. Kansas City prices were 11 to 12 1/4 cents in the red. Spring wheat prices closed 4 1/2 cents to 7 1/2 cents red. 

USDA had wheat export bookings at 362,374 MT for the week that ended 10/14. That was within the range of estimates but down 37% from the week prior. USDA noted Nigeria and Japan were the top buyers, and Mexico was the top destination for the 160k MT shipped. The shipments were a 16 week low, and down 27% from the same week last year. Accumulated exports now trail last season’s pace by 28% with 8.37 MMT shipped through 10/14. 

USDA’s Ag Attache sees Egypt wheat imports 12.4 MMT for the 21/22 MY. The Attache also sees 9 MT of output. Those compare to 12.14 and 8.9 MMT last season and USDA’s official 13 and 9 MMT forecast.

Dec 21 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.41 1/4, down 8 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  was $6.91 4/9, down 8 1/4 cents,

Dec 21 KCBT Wheat  closed at $7.47 3/4, down 12 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  was $7.25 7/8, down 11 1/8 cents,

Dec 21 MGEX Wheat  closed at $9.85 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents,

Cotton Gives Back Gains on Thursday

Cotton - trisha-downing-pyud8ZaVq4I-unsplash

After the midweek rally left cotton nearly 300 points, Thursday’s session fell back 428 to 459 points. Dollar Index was back higher on Thursday. 

Cotton export sales during the week ending 10/14 were 391,796 RBs. That was up 167% from the week prior, and 72% above the same week last year. China was the top buyer with 272.8k RBs bought. That left China’s 21/22 commitments at 2.36m RBs. That is still down 27% yr/yr as 29% of the total. Shipments to China account for 21% of the total 1.85m RBs. 

The online cotton trading platform The Seam reported 6,822 bales sold on 10/20 for 107.26 cents. The DSQ from 10/21 showed 6,322 bales sold. Cotlook A index was 117.05 cents/lb on 10/20 after a 85 point reduction. The AWP for cotton was 8 points lower to 92.8 cents/lb. 

Dec 21 Cotton  closed at 106.14, down 459 points,

Mar 22 Cotton  closed at 104.15, down 448 points,

May 22 Cotton  closed at 103.24, down 440 points

Beans Slide 20 on Thursday

Soy Milk plant based alternative

At the close, soy futures were down 19 to 21 1/2 cents. The November to November spread was 1 1/2 cents firmer to now a 5 3/4 cent carry. cmdtyView data shows the ECB’s bean basis at 42 3/4 cents under Nov, compared to -39 cents at the start of the week, -47 at the start of the month, and -33 cents last year. WCB was seen at 44 cents under Nov. That is down for the week, but 3 cents firmer since the start of October. Last season’s 10/20 bean basis in the WCB was 63 1/2 cents under. 

Soymeal futures closed the day with losses of $3.70 to $4.40/ton. BO futures were down the sharpest giving back 2.79% to 3.3%, as a 212 point draw down in Dec left prices at 62.58 cents. Malaysian Palm Prices fell back more than 200 ringgits after setting new all time highs, and closed red at 5,209 ringgits. 

USDA reported soybean export sales at 2.88 MMT for the week that ended 10/14. That was above the range of estimates going in, a new MY high, and included 1.515 MMT of previously announced business (to China and Unknown). China was listed as the week’s top buyer with 1.88 MMT, though 526k MT of it were previously reported as unknown and 54k MT were reported late. China’s 21/22 bean commitments were at 14.964 MMT as of 10/14. That represents 51.1% of the total, but is down 40% yr/yr. Total soybean commitments sit at 29.27 MMT, compared to 45.4 MMT at this point last season. 

As for the products, USDA reported meal sales at 240,380 MT. That was within the range of estimates and up 58% form the same week last year. Soymeal shipments are running double last season’s clip with 517k MT shipped MYTD through 10/14. Export Sales data for soybean oil showed 3,001 MT were booked. That was below the range of estimates, but still more than double the same week last season. Exports during the week were 8,009 MT. 

Nov 21 Soybeans  closed at $12.24, down 21 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $11.80 3/5, down 22 1/8 cents,

Jan 22 Soybeans  closed at $12.33 1/2, down 21 1/2 cents,

Mar 22 Soybeans  closed at $12.43 1/2, down 20 3/4 cents,