News Source: BRUG

Soybeans

Soybean futures saw sharp gains of 10 to 12 cents in most contracts as Jan expired at $9.44. Meal futures were up 20 cents/ton, with nearby soy oil 4 points lower. US ending stocks for the 17/18 soybean crop were increased 25 mbu to 479 mbu this morning, as exports were reduced 65 mbu. Production of old crop beans was trimmed 33 to 4.392 bbu, on a 0.4 bpa lower yield at 49.1 bpa. The Quarterly Stocks report indicated December 1 soybean stocks at 3.157 bbu, up 259 mbu from a year ago and a shade under expectations. The USDA also increased Brazilian production 2 MMT to 110 MMT, while Argentina’s production was reduced 1 MMT to 56 MMT, all in line with estimates. That boosted the world ending stocks number to 98.57 MMT.

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $9.44, up 3 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $9.60 1/2, up 10 1/2 cents,

May 18 Soybeans closed at $9.72, up 11 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $9.83 3/4, up 10 1/4 cents,

Jan 18 Soybean Meal closed at $309.80, up $0.20,

Jan 18 Soybean Oil closed at $32.93, down $0.04

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures were mixed on Friday, with most front months 12.5 to 60 cents higher and a few deferred contracts lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $1.18 on January 10 at $68.46. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 77 cents at $79.81 in the Friday afternoon report. The national base hog weighted average price was down 45 cents to $69.45. The USDA week to date FI hog slaughter is estimated at 2,450,000 head through Saturday. Reports are showing that Mexico is threatening to pull out of NAFTA if President Trump starts the withdraw process. Pork production for 2017 was totaled at 25.585 billion pounds in this morning’s USDA supply and demand table. That was moved by a 25 million pound increase in the fourth quarter. Production for 2018 is projected at 26.960 billion pounds, up 45 million pounds from the previous report.

Feb 18 Hogs closed at $71.575, up $0.600,

Apr 18 Hogs closed at $74.325, up $0.500

May 18 Hogs closed at $79.000, up $0.300

Cotton

Cotton futures ended the busy Friday session with most contracts lower, as traders were taking profits ahead of the long weekend. The US dollar was down 950 points on the day. The USDA showed the 2017 cotton crop at 21.26 million bales this morning, down 0.18 from December. Yield was cut 3 lbs/ac to 899, as exports were left UNCH at 14.8 million bales. US ending stocks were trimmed 100,000 bales to 5.7 million bales on lighter production. World stocks were reduced slightly to 87.79 million bales. The Cotton Ginnings report indicated 16.153 million bales were ginned as of Jan 1, a 2.149 million bale jump from Dec 15 and 16.6% larger than last year. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was increased 35 points to 71.21 cents/lb on Thursday. The Cotlook A Index for January 11 was 130 points higher than the previous day at 90.35 cents/lb.

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 81.680, down 97 points,

May 18 Cotton closed at 81.960, down 100 points

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 82.220, down 78 points

Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures settled Friday with most contracts 2 to 3 cents lower in the face of another record corn yield. A private export sale of 320,000 MT of 17/18 corn was reported to Unknown Destinations through the USDA’s daily system. NASS updated the US corn yield 1.2 bpa higher than December at a record 176.6 bpa this morning. The production increase of 26 mbu was limited, due to ~400,000 fewer harvested acres. December 1 stocks of corn were 12.516 bbu, above expectations due to the larger crop and 130 mbu larger compared to last year. On the world side, South American production was left unchanged, while analysts had been expecting to see a smaller crop. That caused an increase of 2.49 MMT to the world ending stocks now at 206.57 MMT. South Korea purchased 70,000 MT of corn on Friday, with the US the likely origin.

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.46 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

May 18 Corn closed at $3.54 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.62 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.70 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents



Soybean futures saw sharp gains of 10 to 12 cents in most contracts as Jan expired at $9.44. Meal futures were up 20 cents/ton, with nearby soy oil 4 points lower. US ending stocks for the 17/18 soybean crop were increased 25 mbu to 479 mbu this morning, as exports were reduced 65 mbu. Production of old crop beans was trimmed 33 to 4.392 bbu, on a 0.4 bpa lower yield at 49.1 bpa. The Quarterly Stocks report indicated December 1 soybean stocks at 3.157 bbu, up 259 mbu from a year ago and a shade under expectations. The USDA also increased Brazilian production 2 MMT to 110 MMT, while Argentina’s production was reduced 1 MMT to 56 MMT, all in line with estimates. That boosted the world ending stocks number to 98.57 MMT.

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $9.44, up 3 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $9.60 1/2, up 10 1/2 cents,

May 18 Soybeans closed at $9.72, up 11 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $9.83 3/4, up 10 1/4 cents,

Jan 18 Soybean Meal closed at $309.80, up $0.20,

Jan 18 Soybean Oil closed at $32.93, down $0.04



Wheat futures posted steep losses on Friday, pressured by larger than expected winter theat acreage and larger 17/18 carryout. This morning’s Winter Wheat Seedings report showed 32.6108 million acres of winter wheat was planted last fall. That was down 88,000 acres from last year and is the lowest since 1909. It was much larger than expected, however. It included a reduction of HRW at 23.1 million acres, as both SRW and White was increased slightly to 5.98 million and 3.56 million acres respectively. Stocks of wheat on December 1 totaled 1.874 bbu, down 203 mbu from last year and in line with expectations. US old crop ending stocks were shown at 989 mbu, as imports were raised and feed usage was trimmed. World ending stock tallied 268.02 MMT, down 0.4 from December. A reduction in Australia’s carryover by almost 3 MMT offset a 2 MMT increase in Russian production (now 85 MMT).

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.20 1/2, down 12 3/4 cents,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.26 1/4, down 14 cents,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.12 3/4, down 16 1/4 cents



Live cattle futures closed the Friday session with 25 to 92.5 cent gains. Feeder cattle futures were a dime to $1.275 higher. The CME feeder cattle index on January 11 was $146.80, down $2.01 from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes averaged 84 cents lower at $208.23, with Select boxes $1.31 per cwt at $201.64. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter is 611,000 head through Saturday. That is 2,000 head more than the same week last year. Quarterly beef production was given a 130 million pound downward adjustment for the fourth quarter of 2017 to 6.74 billion pounds. Total production for 2017 was shown at 26.175 billion pounds, with 2018 up 170 million at 27.760 billion pounds.

Feb 18 Cattle closed at $117.375, up $0.300,

Apr 18 Cattle closed at $119.450, up $0.575,

Jun 18 Cattle closed at $111.625, up $0.625,

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.350, up $0.525

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.650, up $1.275

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.000, up $1.150



Lean hog futures were mixed on Friday, with most front months 12.5 to 60 cents higher and a few deferred contracts lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $1.18 on January 10 at $68.46. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 77 cents at $79.81 in the Friday afternoon report. The national base hog weighted average price was down 45 cents to $69.45. The USDA week to date FI hog slaughter is estimated at 2,450,000 head through Saturday. Reports are showing that Mexico is threatening to pull out of NAFTA if President Trump starts the withdraw process. Pork production for 2017 was totaled at 25.585 billion pounds in this morning’s USDA supply and demand table. That was moved by a 25 million pound increase in the fourth quarter. Production for 2018 is projected at 26.960 billion pounds, up 45 million pounds from the previous report.

Feb 18 Hogs closed at $71.575, up $0.600,

Apr 18 Hogs closed at $74.325, up $0.500

May 18 Hogs closed at $79.000, up $0.300



Cotton futures ended the busy Friday session with most contracts lower, as traders were taking profits ahead of the long weekend. The US dollar was down 950 points on the day. The USDA showed the 2017 cotton crop at 21.26 million bales this morning, down 0.18 from December. Yield was cut 3 lbs/ac to 899, as exports were left UNCH at 14.8 million bales. US ending stocks were trimmed 100,000 bales to 5.7 million bales on lighter production. World stocks were reduced slightly to 87.79 million bales. The Cotton Ginnings report indicated 16.153 million bales were ginned as of Jan 1, a 2.149 million bale jump from Dec 15 and 16.6% larger than last year. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was increased 35 points to 71.21 cents/lb on Thursday. The Cotlook A Index for January 11 was 130 points higher than the previous day at 90.35 cents/lb.

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 81.680, down 97 points,

May 18 Cotton closed at 81.960, down 100 points

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 82.220, down 78 points



Wheat

Wheat futures posted steep losses on Friday, pressured by larger than expected winter theat acreage and larger 17/18 carryout. This morning’s Winter Wheat Seedings report showed 32.6108 million acres of winter wheat was planted last fall. That was down 88,000 acres from last year and is the lowest since 1909. It was much larger than expected, however. It included a reduction of HRW at 23.1 million acres, as both SRW and White was increased slightly to 5.98 million and 3.56 million acres respectively. Stocks of wheat on December 1 totaled 1.874 bbu, down 203 mbu from last year and in line with expectations. US old crop ending stocks were shown at 989 mbu, as imports were raised and feed usage was trimmed. World ending stock tallied 268.02 MMT, down 0.4 from December. A reduction in Australia’s carryover by almost 3 MMT offset a 2 MMT increase in Russian production (now 85 MMT).

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.20 1/2, down 12 3/4 cents,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.26 1/4, down 14 cents,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.12 3/4, down 16 1/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures closed the Friday session with 25 to 92.5 cent gains. Feeder cattle futures were a dime to $1.275 higher. The CME feeder cattle index on January 11 was $146.80, down $2.01 from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes averaged 84 cents lower at $208.23, with Select boxes $1.31 per cwt at $201.64. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter is 611,000 head through Saturday. That is 2,000 head more than the same week last year. Quarterly beef production was given a 130 million pound downward adjustment for the fourth quarter of 2017 to 6.74 billion pounds. Total production for 2017 was shown at 26.175 billion pounds, with 2018 up 170 million at 27.760 billion pounds.

Feb 18 Cattle closed at $117.375, up $0.300,

Apr 18 Cattle closed at $119.450, up $0.575,

Jun 18 Cattle closed at $111.625, up $0.625,

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.350, up $0.525

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.650, up $1.275

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.000, up $1.150

Corn

Corn futures settled Friday with most contracts 2 to 3 cents lower in the face of another record corn yield. A private export sale of 320,000 MT of 17/18 corn was reported to Unknown Destinations through the USDA’s daily system. NASS updated the US corn yield 1.2 bpa higher than December at a record 176.6 bpa this morning. The production increase of 26 mbu was limited, due to ~400,000 fewer harvested acres. December 1 stocks of corn were 12.516 bbu, above expectations due to the larger crop and 130 mbu larger compared to last year. On the world side, South American production was left unchanged, while analysts had been expecting to see a smaller crop. That caused an increase of 2.49 MMT to the world ending stocks now at 206.57 MMT. South Korea purchased 70,000 MT of corn on Friday, with the US the likely origin.

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.46 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

May 18 Corn closed at $3.54 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.62 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.70 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents

Cotton

Cotton futures are showing sharp losses on Friday as traders are taking profits ahead of the long weekend. The US dollar is down a steep 617 points at the moment. The USDA showed the 2017 cotton crop at 21.26 million bales this morning, down 0.18 from December. Yield was cut 3 lbs/ac to 899, as exports were left UNCH at 14.8 million bales. US ending stocks were trimmed 100,000 bales to 5.7 million bales on lighter production. World stocks were reduced slightly to 87.79 million bales. The Cotton Ginnings report indicated 16.153 million bales were ginned as of Jan 1, a 2.149 million bale jump from Dec 15 and 16.6% larger than last year. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was increased 35 points to 71.21 cents/lb on Thursday. The Cotlook A Index for January 11 was 130 points higher than the previous day at 90.35 cents/lb.

Mar 18 Cotton is at 81.1, down 155 points,

May 18 Cotton is at 81.23, down 173 points

Jul 18 Cotton is at 81.32, down 168 points

Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are mostly 2 to 2 1/4 cents lower at midday. A private export sale of 320,000 MT of 17/18 corn was reported to Unknown Destinations through the USDA’s daily system. NASS updated the US corn yield 1.2 bpa higher than December at a record 176.6 bpa this morning. The production increase of 26 mbu was limited, due to ~400,000 fewer harvested acres. December 1 stocks of corn were 12.516 bbu, above expectations due to the larger crop and 130 mbu larger compared to last year. On the world side, South American production was left unchanged, while analysts had been expecting to see a smaller crop. That caused an increase of 2.49 MMT to the world ending stocks now at 206.57 MMT. South Korea purchased 70,000 MT of corn on Friday, with the US the likely origin.

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.46 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents,

May 18 Corn is at $3.54 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.63, down 2 cents

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.71, down 2 cents



Soybean futures are trading 3 to 4 3/4 cents higher on Friday. Meal futures are down $1.50ton, with nearby soy oil 32 points lower. The Jan contracts expire today. US ending stocks for the 17/18 soybean crop were increased 25 mbu to 479 mbu this morning, as exports were reduced 65 mbu. Production of old crop beans was trimmed 33 to 4.392 bbu, on a 0.4 bpa lower yield at 49.1 bpa. The Quarterly Stocks report indicated December 1 soybean stocks at 3.157 bbu, up 259 mbu from a year ago and a shade under expectations. The USDA also increased Brazilian production 2 MMT to 110 MMT, while Argentina’s production was reduced 1 MMT to 56 MMT, all in line with estimates. That boosted the world ending stocks number to 98.57 MMT. Data from Chinese customs shows the country’s imports of soybeans during December 6% larger than last year at 9.55 MMT.

Jan 18 Soybeans are at $9.43 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $9.54 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents,

May 18 Soybeans are at $9.65 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $9.75 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents,

Jan 18 Soybean Meal is at $308.10, down $1.50

Jan 18 Soybean Oil is at $32.97, down $0.32



Wheat futures are currently 10 to 13 1/2 cents lower in most contracts on Friday. This morning’s Winter Wheat Seedings report showed 32.6108 million acres of winter wheat was planted last fall. That was down 88,000 acres from last year and is the lowest since 1909. It was much larger than expected, however. It included a reduction of HRW at 23.1 million acres, as both SRW and White was increased slightly to 5.98 million and 3.56 million acres respectively. Stocks of wheat on December 1 totaled 1.874 bbu, down 203 mbu from last year and in line with expectations. US old crop ending stocks were shown at 989 mbu, as imports were raised and feed usage was trimmed. World ending stock tallied 268.02 MMT, down 0.4 from December. A reduction in Australia’s carryover by almost 3 MMT offset a 2 MMT increase in Russian production (now 85 MMT). Russian wheat exports from Jan-Nov totaled 28.8 MMT according to the country’s customs data, which is 5.9 MMT larger than the same time in 2016.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.22, down 11 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.26 3/4, down 13 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat is at $6.17, down 12 cents



Live cattle futures are mixed on Friday, with nearby Feb 20 cents lower and back months higher. Feeder cattle futures are mostly 40 to 97.5 cents higher at midday. The CME feeder cattle index on January 10 was $148.81, down $2.78 from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Friday morning. Choice boxes averaged 40 cents lower at $208.67, with Select boxes down 67 cents per cwt at $202.28. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter was 472,000 head through Thursday. That is 7,000 head more than the same week last year. Quarterly beef production was given a 130 million pound downward adjustment for the fourth quarter of 2017 to 6.74 billion pounds. Total production for 2017 was shown at 26.175 billion pounds, with 2018 up 170 million at 27.760 billion pounds.

Feb 18 Cattle are at $116.875, down $0.200,

Apr 18 Cattle are at $118.925, up $0.050,

Jun 18 Cattle are at $111.150, up $0.150,

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle are at $144.225, up $0.400

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle are at $142.350, up $0.975

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle are at $142.775, up $0.925



Lean hog futures are trading 20 to 52.5 cents higher on Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $1.18 on January 10 at $68.46. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up $1.16 cents at $80.20 in the Friday morning report. The loin was the only primal lower. The national base hog weighted average price was down 3 cents to $69.87. The USDA week to date FI hog slaughter was estimated at 1,815,000 head through Thursday. Reports are showing that Mexico is threatening to pull out of NAFTA if President Trump starts the withdraw process. Pork production for 2017 was totaled at 25.585 billion pounds in this morning’s USDA supply and demand table. That was moved by a 25 million pound increase in the fourth quarter. Production for 2018 is projected at 26.960 billion pounds, up 45 million pounds from the previous report.

Feb 18 Hogs are at $71.175, up $0.200,

Apr 18 Hogs are at $74.150, up $0.325

May 18 Hogs are at $79.225, up $0.525



Cotton futures are showing sharp losses on Friday as traders are taking profits ahead of the long weekend. The US dollar is down a steep 617 points at the moment. The USDA showed the 2017 cotton crop at 21.26 million bales this morning, down 0.18 from December. Yield was cut 3 lbs/ac to 899, as exports were left UNCH at 14.8 million bales. US ending stocks were trimmed 100,000 bales to 5.7 million bales on lighter production. World stocks were reduced slightly to 87.79 million bales. The Cotton Ginnings report indicated 16.153 million bales were ginned as of Jan 1, a 2.149 million bale jump from Dec 15 and 16.6% larger than last year. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was increased 35 points to 71.21 cents/lb on Thursday. The Cotlook A Index for January 11 was 130 points higher than the previous day at 90.35 cents/lb.

Mar 18 Cotton is at 81.1, down 155 points,

May 18 Cotton is at 81.23, down 173 points

Jul 18 Cotton is at 81.32, down 168 points



Soybeans

Soybean futures are trading 3 to 4 3/4 cents higher on Friday. Meal futures are down $1.50ton, with nearby soy oil 32 points lower. The Jan contracts expire today. US ending stocks for the 17/18 soybean crop were increased 25 mbu to 479 mbu this morning, as exports were reduced 65 mbu. Production of old crop beans was trimmed 33 to 4.392 bbu, on a 0.4 bpa lower yield at 49.1 bpa. The Quarterly Stocks report indicated December 1 soybean stocks at 3.157 bbu, up 259 mbu from a year ago and a shade under expectations. The USDA also increased Brazilian production 2 MMT to 110 MMT, while Argentina’s production was reduced 1 MMT to 56 MMT, all in line with estimates. That boosted the world ending stocks number to 98.57 MMT. Data from Chinese customs shows the country’s imports of soybeans during December 6% larger than last year at 9.55 MMT.

Jan 18 Soybeans are at $9.43 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $9.54 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents,

May 18 Soybeans are at $9.65 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $9.75 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents,

Jan 18 Soybean Meal is at $308.10, down $1.50

Jan 18 Soybean Oil is at $32.97, down $0.32

Wheat

Wheat futures are currently 10 to 13 1/2 cents lower in most contracts on Friday. This morning’s Winter Wheat Seedings report showed 32.6108 million acres of winter wheat was planted last fall. That was down 88,000 acres from last year and is the lowest since 1909. It was much larger than expected, however. It included a reduction of HRW at 23.1 million acres, as both SRW and White was increased slightly to 5.98 million and 3.56 million acres respectively. Stocks of wheat on December 1 totaled 1.874 bbu, down 203 mbu from last year and in line with expectations. US old crop ending stocks were shown at 989 mbu, as imports were raised and feed usage was trimmed. World ending stock tallied 268.02 MMT, down 0.4 from December. A reduction in Australia’s carryover by almost 3 MMT offset a 2 MMT increase in Russian production (now 85 MMT). Russian wheat exports from Jan-Nov totaled 28.8 MMT according to the country’s customs data, which is 5.9 MMT larger than the same time in 2016.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.22, down 11 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.26 3/4, down 13 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat is at $6.17, down 12 cents

Corn

Corn futures are mostly 2 to 2 1/4 cents lower at midday. A private export sale of 320,000 MT of 17/18 corn was reported to Unknown Destinations through the USDA’s daily system. NASS updated the US corn yield 1.2 bpa higher than December at a record 176.6 bpa this morning. The production increase of 26 mbu was limited, due to ~400,000 fewer harvested acres. December 1 stocks of corn were 12.516 bbu, above expectations due to the larger crop and 130 mbu larger compared to last year. On the world side, South American production was left unchanged, while analysts had been expecting to see a smaller crop. That caused an increase of 2.49 MMT to the world ending stocks now at 206.57 MMT. South Korea purchased 70,000 MT of corn on Friday, with the US the likely origin.

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.46 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents,

May 18 Corn is at $3.54 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.63, down 2 cents

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.71, down 2 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures are mixed on Friday, with nearby Feb 20 cents lower and back months higher. Feeder cattle futures are mostly 40 to 97.5 cents higher at midday. The CME feeder cattle index on January 10 was $148.81, down $2.78 from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Friday morning. Choice boxes averaged 40 cents lower at $208.67, with Select boxes down 67 cents per cwt at $202.28. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter was 472,000 head through Thursday. That is 7,000 head more than the same week last year. Quarterly beef production was given a 130 million pound downward adjustment for the fourth quarter of 2017 to 6.74 billion pounds. Total production for 2017 was shown at 26.175 billion pounds, with 2018 up 170 million at 27.760 billion pounds.

Feb 18 Cattle are at $116.875, down $0.200,

Apr 18 Cattle are at $118.925, up $0.050,

Jun 18 Cattle are at $111.150, up $0.150,

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle are at $144.225, up $0.400

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle are at $142.350, up $0.975

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle are at $142.775, up $0.925

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are trading 20 to 52.5 cents higher on Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $1.18 on January 10 at $68.46. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up $1.16 cents at $80.20 in the Friday morning report. The loin was the only primal lower. The national base hog weighted average price was down 3 cents to $69.87. The USDA week to date FI hog slaughter was estimated at 1,815,000 head through Thursday. Reports are showing that Mexico is threatening to pull out of NAFTA if President Trump starts the withdraw process. Pork production for 2017 was totaled at 25.585 billion pounds in this morning’s USDA supply and demand table. That was moved by a 25 million pound increase in the fourth quarter. Production for 2018 is projected at 26.960 billion pounds, up 45 million pounds from the previous report.

Feb 18 Hogs are at $71.175, up $0.200,

Apr 18 Hogs are at $74.150, up $0.325

May 18 Hogs are at $79.225, up $0.525

Soybeans

Soybean futures are currently steady to 3/4 cent higher after ending the Thursday session with most contracts 2 to 6 1/4 cents lower. Meal futures were down $3.30/ton, with nearby soy oil 32 points lower. The weekly Export Sales report showed 17/18 sales of soybeans at 607,381 MT for the week ending 1/4, with 9,000 MT for new crop. That is 74.1% larger than this time last year. Export shipments tallied 1.546 MMT, an 8% jump over last year. Total soy meal sales were at 226,905 MT. Brazil’s CONAB raised their 17/18 soybean crop projection 1.2 MMT to 110.4 MMT, with a couple other South American firms now expecting 114-114.1 MMT. Argentina’s crop is seen at 52 MMT by the Rosario Grain Exchange down 2.5 MMT from their previous estimate. The range of estimates for this morning’s Grain Stocks report was 440-595 million bushels with only two firms thinking it might be smaller than last month’s 445 million.

Wheat

Wheat futures are steady to 1 cent higher this morning. They finished Thursday’s trade with most contracts lower, as MPLS was the weakest. KC HRW contracts were held to fractional losses yesterday, with the Drought Monitor showing dryness expanding across the Southern Plains. The USDA indicated all wheat old crop export sales of just 71,463 MT for the week ending Jan 4. That is another MY low, and just 18.36% of the total for the same week last year. Shipments of wheat picked up 26.37% from last week and 67.33% from a year ago at 288,242 MT. Japan purchased 91,087 MT of US and Canadian wheat in their weekly MOA tender, with 56,981 MT US origin. Traders are expecting Dec 1 wheat stocks to be close to last month’s 960 level, with higher ideas tied to USDA either cutting feed use or exports.

Corn

Corn futures are fractionally higher this morning. Thursday was the calm before the storm, as most contracts settled within 1/4 cent of UNCH. Old crop corn export sales totaled 437,745 MT for the week of Jan 4. That was an improvement over the previous week but still lags the first week in 2017 by 27.44%. Shipments of 889,815 MT were 28.24% larger than the same time last year. Thursday’s CONAB report showed expected 17/18 Brazilian production at 92.3 MMT, up 0.1 MMT from December’s estimate. Celeres is projecting first crop production at 27.7 MMT. The Rosario Grain Exchange now expects Argentina’s corn crop to be 39.9 MMT, down 1.6 MMT from their previous projection. The range of trade estimates for December 1 Corn Stocks was 2.26-2.55 billion bushels in a Bloomberg survey. The USDA report will be out at 11 AM CST.

Cattle

Live cattle futures ended Thursday with most contracts a nickel to 22.5 cents higher. Feeder cattle futures were mixed with the front months 12.5 to 85 cents in the red and back months higher. The CME feeder cattle index on January 10 was $148.81, down $2.78 from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Thursday afternoon. Choice boxes averaged 99 cents lower at $209.07, with Select boxes down 28 cents per cwt at $202.95. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter was 472,000 head through Thursday. That is 7,000 head more than the same week last year. The USDA reported weekly Beef export sales of 14,705 MT for the week ending Jan 4. There were 38,249 MT carried over from 2017 unshipped sales into 2018.

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures saw sharp losses in most contracts on Thursday, with the front months $1.55 to $1.95 lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 72 cents on January 8 at $66.37. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 41 cents at $79.04 in the Thursday afternoon report. The national base hog weighted average price was down 9 cents to $69.42. The USDA week to date FI hog slaughter was estimated at 1,815,000 head through Thursday. That is up 95,000 head from the same week last year. The USDA reported pork export sales of 12,600 MT for the first week of 2018. There were also 84,700 MT in unshipped sales from 2017 rolled to 2018.

Cotton

Cotton futures are 110 to 144 points higher again this morning. They posted limit gains in the nearby March and May contracts yesterday, as most other front months saw triple digit gains. The US dollar helped, losing 419 points on the day. Expanded limits will be in effect today, just in time for the USDA reports! The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was increased 35 points to 71.21 cents/lb on Thursday. The CFTC showed an unpriced on call position of 156,382 lots (16.289 million 480-lb bales), with 115,489 lots (12.03 million bales) for the 17/18 crop. Old crop cotton export sales were 16.35% above last year for this week and a jump of 41.55% from last year. Exports of upland cotton tallied 281,647 RB, a climb of 35.1% from last week and up 33.77% over this time in 2017. The Cotlook A Index for January 10 was 25 points higher than the previous day at 89.05 cents/lb.

Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are fractionally higher this morning. Thursday was the calm before the storm, as most contracts settled within 1/4 cent of UNCH. Old crop corn export sales totaled 437,745 MT for the week of Jan 4. That was an improvement over the previous week but still lags the first week in 2017 by 27.44%. Shipments of 889,815 MT were 28.24% larger than the same time last year. Thursday’s CONAB report showed expected 17/18 Brazilian production at 92.3 MMT, up 0.1 MMT from December’s estimate. Celeres is projecting first crop production at 27.7 MMT. The Rosario Grain Exchange now expects Argentina’s corn crop to be 39.9 MMT, down 1.6 MMT from their previous projection. The range of trade estimates for December 1 Corn Stocks was 2.26-2.55 billion bushels in a Bloomberg survey. The USDA report will be out at 11 AM CST.



Soybean futures are currently steady to 3/4 cent higher after ending the Thursday session with most contracts 2 to 6 1/4 cents lower. Meal futures were down $3.30/ton, with nearby soy oil 32 points lower. The weekly Export Sales report showed 17/18 sales of soybeans at 607,381 MT for the week ending 1/4, with 9,000 MT for new crop. That is 74.1% larger than this time last year. Export shipments tallied 1.546 MMT, an 8% jump over last year. Total soy meal sales were at 226,905 MT. Brazil’s CONAB raised their 17/18 soybean crop projection 1.2 MMT to 110.4 MMT, with a couple other South American firms now expecting 114-114.1 MMT. Argentina’s crop is seen at 52 MMT by the Rosario Grain Exchange down 2.5 MMT from their previous estimate. The range of estimates for this morning’s Grain Stocks report was 440-595 million bushels with only two firms thinking it might be smaller than last month’s 445 million.



Wheat futures are steady to 1 cent higher this morning. They finished Thursday’s trade with most contracts lower, as MPLS was the weakest. KC HRW contracts were held to fractional losses yesterday, with the Drought Monitor showing dryness expanding across the Southern Plains. The USDA indicated all wheat old crop export sales of just 71,463 MT for the week ending Jan 4. That is another MY low, and just 18.36% of the total for the same week last year. Shipments of wheat picked up 26.37% from last week and 67.33% from a year ago at 288,242 MT. Japan purchased 91,087 MT of US and Canadian wheat in their weekly MOA tender, with 56,981 MT US origin. Traders are expecting Dec 1 wheat stocks to be close to last month’s 960 level, with higher ideas tied to USDA either cutting feed use or exports.



Live cattle futures ended Thursday with most contracts a nickel to 22.5 cents higher. Feeder cattle futures were mixed with the front months 12.5 to 85 cents in the red and back months higher. The CME feeder cattle index on January 10 was $148.81, down $2.78 from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Thursday afternoon. Choice boxes averaged 99 cents lower at $209.07, with Select boxes down 28 cents per cwt at $202.95. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter was 472,000 head through Thursday. That is 7,000 head more than the same week last year. The USDA reported weekly Beef export sales of 14,705 MT for the week ending Jan 4. There were 38,249 MT carried over from 2017 unshipped sales into 2018.



Lean hog futures saw sharp losses in most contracts on Thursday, with the front months $1.55 to $1.95 lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 72 cents on January 8 at $66.37. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 41 cents at $79.04 in the Thursday afternoon report. The national base hog weighted average price was down 9 cents to $69.42. The USDA week to date FI hog slaughter was estimated at 1,815,000 head through Thursday. That is up 95,000 head from the same week last year. The USDA reported pork export sales of 12,600 MT for the first week of 2018. There were also 84,700 MT in unshipped sales from 2017 rolled to 2018.



Cotton futures are 110 to 144 points higher again this morning. They posted limit gains in the nearby March and May contracts yesterday, as most other front months saw triple digit gains. The US dollar helped, losing 419 points on the day. Expanded limits will be in effect today, just in time for the USDA reports! The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was increased 35 points to 71.21 cents/lb on Thursday. The CFTC showed an unpriced on call position of 156,382 lots (16.289 million 480-lb bales), with 115,489 lots (12.03 million bales) for the 17/18 crop. Old crop cotton export sales were 16.35% above last year for this week and a jump of 41.55% from last year. Exports of upland cotton tallied 281,647 RB, a climb of 35.1% from last week and up 33.77% over this time in 2017. The Cotlook A Index for January 10 was 25 points higher than the previous day at 89.05 cents/lb.



Cotton

Cotton futures posted limit gains in the nearby March and May contracts, as most other front months saw triple digit gains. The US dollar helped, losing 419 points on the day. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was increased 35 points to 71.21 cents/lb on Thursday. The CFTC showed an unpriced on call position of 156,382 lots (16.289 million 480-lb bales), with 115,489 lots (12.03 million bales) for the 17/18 crop. Upland old crop cotton export sales for the week that ended Jan 4 were 274,533 RB, with 92,928 RB for new crop. Old crop sales were 16.35% above last year for this week and a jump of 41.55% from last year. Exports of upland cotton tallied 281,647 RB, a climb of 35.1% from last week and up 33.77% over this time in 2017. The Cotlook A Index for January 10 was 25 points higher than the previous day at 89.05 cents/lb.

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 82.650, up 300 points,

May 18 Cotton closed at 82.960, up 300 points

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 83.070, up 292 points

Soybeans

Soybean futures closed the Thursday session with most contracts 2 to 6 1/4 cents lower. Meal futures were down $3.30/ton, with nearby soy oil 32 points lower. This morning’s weekly Export Sales report showed 17/18 sales of soybeans at 607,381 MT for the week ending 1/4, with 9,000 MT for new crop. That is 74.1% larger than this time last year. Export shipments tallied 1.546 MMT, an 8% jump over last year. Total soy meal sales were at 226,905 MT, with soy oil showing a net reduction of 1,612 MT. Brazil’s CONAB raised their 17/18 soybean crop projection 1.2 MMT to 110.4 MMT, with a couple other South American firms now expecting 114-114.1 MMT. Argentina’s crop is seen at 52 MMT by the Rosario Grain Exchange down 2.5 MMT from their previous estimate.

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $9.40 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $9.50, down 5 cents,

May 18 Soybeans closed at $9.61, down 5 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $9.73 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents,

Jan 18 Soybean Meal closed at $309.60, down $3.30,

Jan 18 Soybean Oil closed at $32.97, down $0.32

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures saw sharp losses in most contracts on Thursday, with the front months $1.55 to $1.95 lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 72 cents on January 8 at $66.37. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 41 cents at $79.04 in the Thursday afternoon report. The national base hog weighted average price was down 9 cents to $69.42. The USDA week to date FI hog slaughter was estimated at 1,815,000 head through Thursday. That is up 95,000 head from the same week last year. The USDA reported pork export sales of 12,600 MT for the first week of 2018. There was also 84,700 MT in unshipped sales from 2017 rolled to 2018.

Feb 18 Hogs closed at $70.975, down $1.550,

Apr 18 Hogs closed at $73.825, down $1.950

May 18 Hogs closed at $78.700, down $1.550

Cattle

Live cattle futures ended Thursday with most contracts a nickel to 22.5 cents higher. Feeder cattle futures were mixed with the front months 12.5 to 85 cents in the red and back months higher. The CME feeder cattle index on January 10 was $148.81, down $2.78 from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Thursday afternoon. Choice boxes averaged 99 cents lower at $209.07, with Select boxes down 28 cents per cwt at $202.95. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter was 472,000 head through Thursday. That is 7,000 head more than the same week last year. The USDA reported weekly Beef export sales of 14,705 MT for 2018 this morning, as 38,249 MT were carried over from 2017 unshipped sales into 2018.

Feb 18 Cattle closed at $117.075, up $0.200,

Apr 18 Cattle closed at $118.875, up $0.200,

Jun 18 Cattle closed at $111.000, up $0.225,

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.825, down $0.550

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.375, down $0.850

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.850, down $0.500

Corn

Corn futures settled the day with most contracts within 1/4 cent of UNCH ahead of Friday’s barrage of USDA reports. Old crop corn export sales totaled 437,745 MT for the week of Jan 4 in this morning’s USDA report. That was an improvement over last week’s MY low, but still lags the first week in 2017 by 27.44%. Analysts expectations were in the range of 350,000-650,000 MT. Shipments of 889,815 MT were also reported, a 28.24% jump over the same time last year. Thursday’s CONAB report showed expected 17/18 Brazilian production at 92.3 MMT, up 0.1 MMT from December’s estimate. The Rosario Grain Exchange now expects Argentina’s corn crop to be 39.9 MMT, down 1.6 MMT from their previous projection.

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.48 3/4, down 1/4 cent,

May 18 Corn closed at $3.57, unch,

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.65, unch,

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.73, unch

Wheat

Wheat futures finished Thursday’s trade with most contracts lower, as MPLS was the weakest. KC HRW contracts were held to fractional losses, with this morning’s Drought Monitor showing dryness expanding across the Southern Plains. The USDA indicated all wheat old crop export sales of just 71,463 MT for the week ending Jan 4. That is another MY low, and just 18.36% of the total for the same week last year. Shipments of wheat picked up 26.37% from last week and 67.33% from a year ago at 288,242 MT. Japan purchased 91,087 MT of US and Canadian wheat in their weekly MOA tender, with 56,981 MT US origin.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.33 1/4, down 1 cent,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.40 1/4, down 1/4 cent,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.29, down 5 cents

Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures settled the day with most contracts within 1/4 cent of UNCH ahead of Friday’s barrage of USDA reports. Old crop corn export sales totaled 437,745 MT for the week of Jan 4 in this morning’s USDA report. That was an improvement over last week’s MY low, but still lags the first week in 2017 by 27.44%. Analysts expectations were in the range of 350,000-650,000 MT. Shipments of 889,815 MT were also reported, a 28.24% jump over the same time last year. Thursday’s CONAB report showed expected 17/18 Brazilian production at 92.3 MMT, up 0.1 MMT from December’s estimate. The Rosario Grain Exchange now expects Argentina’s corn crop to be 39.9 MMT, down 1.6 MMT from their previous projection.

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.48 3/4, down 1/4 cent,

May 18 Corn closed at $3.57, unch,

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.65, unch,

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.73, unch



Soybean futures closed the Thursday session with most contracts 2 to 6 1/4 cents lower. Meal futures were down $3.30/ton, with nearby soy oil 32 points lower. This morning’s weekly Export Sales report showed 17/18 sales of soybeans at 607,381 MT for the week ending 1/4, with 9,000 MT for new crop. That is 74.1% larger than this time last year. Export shipments tallied 1.546 MMT, an 8% jump over last year. Total soy meal sales were at 226,905 MT, with soy oil showing a net reduction of 1,612 MT. Brazil’s CONAB raised their 17/18 soybean crop projection 1.2 MMT to 110.4 MMT, with a couple other South American firms now expecting 114-114.1 MMT. Argentina’s crop is seen at 52 MMT by the Rosario Grain Exchange down 2.5 MMT from their previous estimate.

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $9.40 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $9.50, down 5 cents,

May 18 Soybeans closed at $9.61, down 5 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $9.73 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents,

Jan 18 Soybean Meal closed at $309.60, down $3.30,

Jan 18 Soybean Oil closed at $32.97, down $0.32



Wheat futures finished Thursday’s trade with most contracts lower, as MPLS was the weakest. KC HRW contracts were held to fractional losses, with this morning’s Drought Monitor showing dryness expanding across the Southern Plains. The USDA indicated all wheat old crop export sales of just 71,463 MT for the week ending Jan 4. That is another MY low, and just 18.36% of the total for the same week last year. Shipments of wheat picked up 26.37% from last week and 67.33% from a year ago at 288,242 MT. Japan purchased 91,087 MT of US and Canadian wheat in their weekly MOA tender, with 56,981 MT US origin.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.33 1/4, down 1 cent,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.40 1/4, down 1/4 cent,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.29, down 5 cents



Live cattle futures ended Thursday with most contracts a nickel to 22.5 cents higher. Feeder cattle futures were mixed with the front months 12.5 to 85 cents in the red and back months higher. The CME feeder cattle index on January 10 was $148.81, down $2.78 from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Thursday afternoon. Choice boxes averaged 99 cents lower at $209.07, with Select boxes down 28 cents per cwt at $202.95. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter was 472,000 head through Thursday. That is 7,000 head more than the same week last year. The USDA reported weekly Beef export sales of 14,705 MT for 2018 this morning, as 38,249 MT were carried over from 2017 unshipped sales into 2018.

Feb 18 Cattle closed at $117.075, up $0.200,

Apr 18 Cattle closed at $118.875, up $0.200,

Jun 18 Cattle closed at $111.000, up $0.225,

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.825, down $0.550

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.375, down $0.850

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.850, down $0.500



Lean hog futures saw sharp losses in most contracts on Thursday, with the front months $1.55 to $1.95 lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 72 cents on January 8 at $66.37. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 41 cents at $79.04 in the Thursday afternoon report. The national base hog weighted average price was down 9 cents to $69.42. The USDA week to date FI hog slaughter was estimated at 1,815,000 head through Thursday. That is up 95,000 head from the same week last year. The USDA reported pork export sales of 12,600 MT for the first week of 2018. There was also 84,700 MT in unshipped sales from 2017 rolled to 2018.

Feb 18 Hogs closed at $70.975, down $1.550,

Apr 18 Hogs closed at $73.825, down $1.950

May 18 Hogs closed at $78.700, down $1.550



Cotton futures posted limit gains in the nearby March and May contracts, as most other front months saw triple digit gains. The US dollar helped, losing 419 points on the day. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was increased 35 points to 71.21 cents/lb on Thursday. The CFTC showed an unpriced on call position of 156,382 lots (16.289 million 480-lb bales), with 115,489 lots (12.03 million bales) for the 17/18 crop. Upland old crop cotton export sales for the week that ended Jan 4 were 274,533 RB, with 92,928 RB for new crop. Old crop sales were 16.35% above last year for this week and a jump of 41.55% from last year. Exports of upland cotton tallied 281,647 RB, a climb of 35.1% from last week and up 33.77% over this time in 2017. The Cotlook A Index for January 10 was 25 points higher than the previous day at 89.05 cents/lb.

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 82.650, up 300 points,

May 18 Cotton closed at 82.960, up 300 points

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 83.070, up 292 points



Wheat

Wheat futures are fractionally to a penny lower in most winter wheat contracts, with spring wheat contracts 1-4 cents lower. This morning’s Drought Monitor saw moderate to severe drought expanding across the Southern Plains. That is showing little market effect on Thursday. The USDA indicated all wheat old crop export sales of just 71,463 MT for the week ending Jan 4. That is another MY low, and just 18.36% of the total for the same week last year. Shipments of wheat picked up 26.37% from last week and 67.33% from a year ago at 288,242 MT. Japan purchased 91,087 MT of US and Canadian wheat in their weekly MOA tender, with 56,981 MT US origin. The USDA is seen reducing world ending stocks slightly to 268.1 MMT in the Friday morning WASDE report.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.33 1/4, down 1 cent,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.39 3/4, down 3/4 cent,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat is at $6.30, down 4 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are trading 3 to 4 1/2 cents lower in the nearby contracts on Thursday. Meal futures are down $3.10/ton, with nearby soy oil 3 points higher. The USDA reported another daily private export sale of 132,000 MT to Unknown destinations for 17/18 on Thursday. This morning’s weekly Export Sales report showed 17/18 sales of soybeans at 607,381 MT for the week ending 1/4, with 9,000 MT for new crop. That is compared to estimates of 500,000-800,000 MT, and is 74.1% larger than this time last year. Export shipments tallied 1.546 MMT, an 8% jump over last year. Total soy meal sales were at 226,905 MT, with soy oil showing a net reduction of 1,612 MT. Brazil’s CONAB raised their 17/18 soybean crop projection 1.2 MMT to 110.4 MMT, with a couple other South American firms now expecting 114-114.1 MMT. Argentina’s crop is seen at 52 MMT by the Rosario Grain Exchange down 2.5 MMT from their previous estimate.

Jan 18 Soybeans are at $9.42 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $9.51 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents,

May 18 Soybeans are at $9.62 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $9.72 1/4, down 3 cents,

Jan 18 Soybean Meal is at $309.80, down $3.10

Jan 18 Soybean Oil is at $33.32, up $0.03

Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are showing fractional gains ahead of Friday’s barrage of USDA reports. Old crop corn export sales totaled 437,745 MT for the week of Jan 4 in this morning’s USDA report. That was an improvement over last week’s MY low, but still lags the first week in 2017 by 27.44%. Analysts expectations were in the range of 350,000-650,000 MT. Shipments of 889,815 MT were also reported, a 28.24% jump over the same time last year. Ahead of Friday’s USDA reports, analysts are expecting 17/18 world ending stocks to be trimmed nearly 1.5 MMT to 202.6 MMT. Thursday’s CONAB report showed expected 17/18 Brazilian production at 92.3 MMT, up 0.1 MMT from December’s estimate.

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.49 3/4, up 3/4 cent,

May 18 Corn is at $3.57 3/4, up 3/4 cent,

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.65 3/4, up 3/4 cent

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.73 3/4, up 3/4 cent



Soybean futures are trading 3 to 4 1/2 cents lower in the nearby contracts on Thursday. Meal futures are down $3.10/ton, with nearby soy oil 3 points higher. The USDA reported another daily private export sale of 132,000 MT to Unknown destinations for 17/18 on Thursday. This morning’s weekly Export Sales report showed 17/18 sales of soybeans at 607,381 MT for the week ending 1/4, with 9,000 MT for new crop. That is compared to estimates of 500,000-800,000 MT, and is 74.1% larger than this time last year. Export shipments tallied 1.546 MMT, an 8% jump over last year. Total soy meal sales were at 226,905 MT, with soy oil showing a net reduction of 1,612 MT. Brazil’s CONAB raised their 17/18 soybean crop projection 1.2 MMT to 110.4 MMT, with a couple other South American firms now expecting 114-114.1 MMT. Argentina’s crop is seen at 52 MMT by the Rosario Grain Exchange down 2.5 MMT from their previous estimate.

Jan 18 Soybeans are at $9.42 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $9.51 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents,

May 18 Soybeans are at $9.62 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $9.72 1/4, down 3 cents,

Jan 18 Soybean Meal is at $309.80, down $3.10

Jan 18 Soybean Oil is at $33.32, up $0.03



Wheat futures are fractionally to a penny lower in most winter wheat contracts, with spring wheat contracts 1-4 cents lower. This morning’s Drought Monitor saw moderate to severe drought expanding across the Southern Plains. That is showing little market effect on Thursday. The USDA indicated all wheat old crop export sales of just 71,463 MT for the week ending Jan 4. That is another MY low, and just 18.36% of the total for the same week last year. Shipments of wheat picked up 26.37% from last week and 67.33% from a year ago at 288,242 MT. Japan purchased 91,087 MT of US and Canadian wheat in their weekly MOA tender, with 56,981 MT US origin. The USDA is seen reducing world ending stocks slightly to 268.1 MMT in the Friday morning WASDE report.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.33 1/4, down 1 cent,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.39 3/4, down 3/4 cent,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat is at $6.30, down 4 cents



Live cattle futures are down 10 to 30 cents in most front months on Thursday. Feeder cattle futures are $1.10 to $1.30 lower in the nearby contracts at midday. The CME feeder cattle index on January 9 was $151.57, down 85 cents from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes averaged 43 cents lower at $210.06, with Select boxes down 46 cents per cwt at $203.23. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter was 354,000 head through Wednesday. That is 7,000 head more than the same week last year. The USDA reported weekly Beef export sales of 14,705 MT for 2018 this morning, as 38,249 MT were carried over from 2017 unshipped sales into 2018.

Feb 18 Cattle are at $116.725, down $0.150,

Apr 18 Cattle are at $118.450, down $0.225,

Jun 18 Cattle are at $110.675, down $0.100,

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle are at $143.150, down $1.225

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle are at $140.925, down $1.300

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle are at $141.250, down $1.100



Lean hog futures are posting sharp losses in most contracts at midday, with nearby Feb $1.725 lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 72 cents on January 8 at $66.37. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 8 cents at $79.45 in the Wednesday afternoon report. The picnic primal was down a sharp $6.46, as the belly was up $4.30. The national base hog weighted average price was up $1.87 to $69.43. The USDA week to date FI hog slaughter was estimated at 1,385,000 head through Wednesday. That is up 103,000 head from the same week last year. The USDA reported pork export sales of 12,600 MT for the first week of 2018. There was also 84,700 MT in unshipped sales from 2017 rolled to 2018.

Feb 18 Hogs are at $70.800, down $1.725,

Apr 18 Hogs are at $73.975, down $1.800

May 18 Hogs are at $79.000, down $1.250



Cotton futures are continuing to rally on Thursday, with most front months at or nearing limit gains. The US dollar is helping, down 474 points at the moment. Upland old crop cotton export sales for the week that ended Jan 4 were 274,533 RB, with 92,928 RB for new crop. Old crop sales were 16.35% above last year for this week and a jump of 41.55% from last year. Exports of upland cotton tallied 281,647 RB, a climb of 35.1% from last week and up 33.77% over this time in 2017. The Cotlook A Index for January 9 was 10 points higher than the previous day at 88.80 cents/lb. Online cash sales of 23,823 bales were reported on the Seam on Tuesday, with an average price of 70.5 cents/lb, up 83 points from the day prior.

Mar 18 Cotton is at 82.65, up 300 points,

May 18 Cotton is at 82.87, up 291 points

Jul 18 Cotton is at 82.92, up 277 points



Cotton

Cotton futures are continuing to rally on Thursday, with most front months at or nearing limit gains. The US dollar is helping, down 474 points at the moment. Upland old crop cotton export sales for the week that ended Jan 4 were 274,533 RB, with 92,928 RB for new crop. Old crop sales were 16.35% above last year for this week and a jump of 41.55% from last year. Exports of upland cotton tallied 281,647 RB, a climb of 35.1% from last week and up 33.77% over this time in 2017. The Cotlook A Index for January 9 was 10 points higher than the previous day at 88.80 cents/lb. Online cash sales of 23,823 bales were reported on the Seam on Tuesday, with an average price of 70.5 cents/lb, up 83 points from the day prior.

Mar 18 Cotton is at 82.65, up 300 points,

May 18 Cotton is at 82.87, up 291 points

Jul 18 Cotton is at 82.92, up 277 points

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are posting sharp losses in most contracts at midday, with nearby Feb $1.725 lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 72 cents on January 8 at $66.37. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 8 cents at $79.45 in the Wednesday afternoon report. The picnic primal was down a sharp $6.46, as the belly was up $4.30. The national base hog weighted average price was up $1.87 to $69.43. The USDA week to date FI hog slaughter was estimated at 1,385,000 head through Wednesday. That is up 103,000 head from the same week last year. The USDA reported pork export sales of 12,600 MT for the first week of 2018. There was also 84,700 MT in unshipped sales from 2017 rolled to 2018.

Feb 18 Hogs are at $70.800, down $1.725,

Apr 18 Hogs are at $73.975, down $1.800

May 18 Hogs are at $79.000, down $1.250

Cattle

Live cattle futures are down 10 to 30 cents in most front months on Thursday. Feeder cattle futures are $1.10 to $1.30 lower in the nearby contracts at midday. The CME feeder cattle index on January 9 was $151.57, down 85 cents from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes averaged 43 cents lower at $210.06, with Select boxes down 46 cents per cwt at $203.23. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter was 354,000 head through Wednesday. That is 7,000 head more than the same week last year. The USDA reported weekly Beef export sales of 14,705 MT for 2018 this morning, as 38,249 MT were carried over from 2017 unshipped sales into 2018.

Feb 18 Cattle are at $116.725, down $0.150,

Apr 18 Cattle are at $118.450, down $0.225,

Jun 18 Cattle are at $110.675, down $0.100,

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle are at $143.150, down $1.225

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle are at $140.925, down $1.300

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle are at $141.250, down $1.100

Corn

Corn futures are showing fractional gains ahead of Friday’s barrage of USDA reports. Old crop corn export sales totaled 437,745 MT for the week of Jan 4 in this morning’s USDA report. That was an improvement over last week’s MY low, but still lags the first week in 2017 by 27.44%. Analysts expectations were in the range of 350,000-650,000 MT. Shipments of 889,815 MT were also reported, a 28.24% jump over the same time last year. Ahead of Friday’s USDA reports, analysts are expecting 17/18 world ending stocks to be trimmed nearly 1.5 MMT to 202.6 MMT. Thursday’s CONAB report showed expected 17/18 Brazilian production at 92.3 MMT, up 0.1 MMT from December’s estimate.

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.49 3/4, up 3/4 cent,

May 18 Corn is at $3.57 3/4, up 3/4 cent,

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.65 3/4, up 3/4 cent

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.73 3/4, up 3/4 cent

Soybeans

Soybean futures are trading 1 to 1 1/2 cents per bushel higher this morning. They continued to show weakness ahead of Friday’s massive report day on Wednesday, with most contracts 8 to 9 cents lower. Meal futures were down $1.60/ton, with nearby soy oil 26 points in the red. Trade ideas for the weekly USDA Export Sales report show 17/18 soybean sales in a range of 500,000-850,000 MT for the New Years holiday week of Jan 4. The average wire service trade guess for old crop world ending stocks is running 99.06 MMT, an increase of 0.74 MMT on larger SA production. That WASDE report will be released on Friday morning at noon EST.

Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are currently fractionally higher after also ending the Wednesday session within 1/2 cent of UNCH. Wednesday morning’s EIA report showed ethanol production for the week of Jan 5 at just 996,000 barrels per day. Spot ethanol futures are steeply discounted vs. gasoline due to excess inventory. Stocks of ethanol at the end of that week rose 100,000 barrels to 22.719 million barrels. Traders are estimating the USDA will show 350,000-650,00 MT in old crop export sales for the week of Jan 4. That would be an increase over last week’s MY low of 101,198 MT. Ahead of Friday’s USDA reports, analysts are expecting 17/18 world ending stocks to be trimmed nearly 1.5 MMT to 202.6 MMT.



Soybean futures are trading 1 to 1 1/2 cents per bushel higher this morning. They continued to show weakness ahead of Friday’s massive report day on Wednesday, with most contracts 8 to 9 cents lower. Meal futures were down $1.60/ton, with nearby soy oil 26 points in the red. Trade ideas for the weekly USDA Export Sales report show 17/18 soybean sales in a range of 500,000-850,000 MT for the New Years holiday week of Jan 4. The average wire service trade guess for old crop world ending stocks is running 99.06 MMT, an increase of 0.74 MMT on larger SA production. That WASDE report will be released on Friday morning at noon EST.



Wheat futures are mostly 3/4 to 2 cents per bushel lower this morning. They closed Wednesday with most contracts 1 1/2 to 3 1/2 cents higher. This morning’s USDA Export Sales report is expected to show old crop wheat sales pick up for the week of Jan 4 to 250,000-450,000 MT. Last week’s marketing year low (MY low) sales totaled just 130,963 MT. December 1 wheat stocks are expected to be shown at 1.849 billion bushels this Friday, nearly 11% lower than the same time last year. The USDA is seen reducing world ending stocks slightly to 268.1 MMT.



Live cattle futures were 30 to 90 cents lower in most contracts on Wednesday. Feeder cattle futures were down mostly 32.5 to 85 cents, with nearby Jan $1.10 lower. The CME feeder cattle index on January 9 was $151.57, down 85 cents from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes averaged 43 cents lower at $210.06, with Select boxes down 46 cents per cwt at $203.23. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter was 354,000 head through Wednesday. That is 7,000 head more than the same week last year. Cash trade was early this week with sales of $119-120 across most regions. Wednesday morning’s FCE showed sales of $119 on 401 of the 711 head offered.



Lean hog futures are $1.00 to $1.55 lower in most nearby contracts at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 72 cents on January 8 at $66.37. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 8 cents at $79.45 in the Wednesday afternoon report. The picnic primal was down a sharp $6.46, as the belly was up $4.30. The national base hog weighted average price was up $1.87 to $69.43. The USDA week to date FI hog slaughter was estimated at 1,385,000 head through Wednesday. That is up 103,000 head from the same week last year.



Cotton futures are surging higher this morning, up 98 to 136 points and into life of contract highs. They also posted strong trade on Wednesday, with most nearby contracts showing triple digit gains. The US dollar was weaker yesterday, and again overnight. Analysts expect US exports to see another increase in Friday’s USDA supply/demand report, as total commitments are well above the average. However that could be offset by the fact that actual exports are currently lagging behind this time last year. The Cotlook A Index for January 9 was 10 points higher than the previous day at 88.80 cents/lb. Online cash sales of 23,823 bales were reported on the Seam on Tuesday, with an average price of 70.5 cents/lb, up 83 points from the day prior.



Cotton

Cotton futures are surging higher this morning, up 98 to 136 points and into life of contract highs. They also posted strong trade on Wednesday, with most nearby contracts showing triple digit gains. The US dollar was weaker yesterday, and again overnight. Analysts expect US exports to see another increase in Friday’s USDA supply/demand report, as total commitments are well above the average. However that could be offset by the fact that actual exports are currently lagging behind this time last year. The Cotlook A Index for January 9 was 10 points higher than the previous day at 88.80 cents/lb. Online cash sales of 23,823 bales were reported on the Seam on Tuesday, with an average price of 70.5 cents/lb, up 83 points from the day prior.

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are $1.00 to $1.55 lower in most nearby contracts at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 72 cents on January 8 at $66.37. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 8 cents at $79.45 in the Wednesday afternoon report. The picnic primal was down a sharp $6.46, as the belly was up $4.30. The national base hog weighted average price was up $1.87 to $69.43. The USDA week to date FI hog slaughter was estimated at 1,385,000 head through Wednesday. That is up 103,000 head from the same week last year.

Cattle

Live cattle futures were 30 to 90 cents lower in most contracts on Wednesday. Feeder cattle futures were down mostly 32.5 to 85 cents, with nearby Jan $1.10 lower. The CME feeder cattle index on January 9 was $151.57, down 85 cents from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes averaged 43 cents lower at $210.06, with Select boxes down 46 cents per cwt at $203.23. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter was 354,000 head through Wednesday. That is 7,000 head more than the same week last year. Cash trade was early this week with sales of $119-120 across most regions. Wednesday morning’s FCE showed sales of $119 on 401 of the 711 head offered.