News Source: BRUG

Soybeans Cautiously Lower As Brazil Harvest Advances

soya-83087_1280

Soybeans are trading steady to 2 cents lower so far in the midweek session. The soy futures complex turned around on Tuesday with beans and bean oil gaining while meal faded. Soymeal futures ended the day with $1.30 to $1.90 losses. Beans dropped from their midday highs, but were still up 4 1/4 to 12 1/2 cents at the close. Preliminary open interest data shows rolling of positions from March to May, front running the upcoming index fund roll period. BO futures gained back 54 to 61 points for Turnaround Tuesday. 

The national average soybean basis is 44 cents under March according to cmdtyView data. That compares to -45 cents last year. WCB beans are 52 cents under, which is 8 cents firmer yr/yr, while the ECB average bean basis is 11 cents weaker at -32 cents. 

AgRural reported Brazil at 5% harvested for 21/22 soybeans. AgRural expects the total soy output to reach 133.4 MMT. 

Mar 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.07 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents, down 1 this morning

Nearby Cash  was $13.62 ½ on Tuesday, up 4 cents,

May 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.16, up 5 cents, down 1 ¼ this morning

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $13.18 1/2, up 11 cents, down 1 ¼ this morning

New Crop Cash  was $12.60 ¼ on Tuesday, up 11 1/4 cents,

Hogs Extend Rally

Piglets napping

Front month lean hog futures continued their rally with another $0.62 to $2.22 gains for the front months. The summer contracts are all now above $100 and set new highs, while Feb is still under the June LOC high of $90.52. USDA’s National Average Base hog price was $6.44 stronger in the PM update at $72.13. The CME Lean Hog Index from 1/21 was $78.32, up by 81 cents.  

Pork cutout futures closed with gains of as much as $2.50 in the front months. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value for Tuesday was $92.46 after a $3.20 drop. The picnic cut was down the most with a $13.96 drop to 1-yr low $50.16. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter for Tuesday at 476,000 head. The week’s kill is 924k head, after a lighter Monday revision.

Feb 22 Hogs  closed at $87.450, up $1.125,

Apr 22 Hogs  closed at $97.250, up $1.925

Feb 22 Pork Cutout  closed at $97.575, up $1.500,

Wheat Down Double Digits, Erasing Tuesday Gains

Wheat marcin-kempa-97WoWlUoM0M-unsplash

After rallying to start the week, wheat futures are sharply lower this morning, down 15 to 17 cents per bushel from overnight action. A threatened BNSF rail strike has been delayed at least a week by a court order. The wheat market lost momentum Tuesday afternoon, fading midday highs by more than a dime. For spring wheat it was enough for March to close lower. New crop HRS was still 9 cents in the black at the bell. Chicago SRW closed 14 3/4 to 18 1/4 cents in the black on Tuesday. Preliminary open interest shows net new buying in Chicago, rising 11,708 contracts on the day. HRW was also up by double digits despite the afternoon fade, ending the day 12 to 16 1/2 cents higher on short covering. 

The wheat news focus continues to be on a tight US stocks/use ratio, and questions about who picks up the business IF flows out of Russia and Ukraine are disrupted. There is also an undertone of commodity price inflation bets, and COVID related “secure your food supply” moves. 

Mar 22 CBOT Wheat  closed at $8.18, up 17 1/2 cents, down 17 ½ this morning

Cash SRW Wheat  was $7.78 on Tuesday, up 18 cents,

Mar 22 KCBT Wheat  closed at $8.34 1/2, up 16 1/2 cents, down 17 this morning

Cash HRW Wheat  was $8.17 7/8 on Tuesday, up 17 1/4 cents,

Mar 22 MGEX Wheat  closed at $9.47 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents, down 16 this morning

Cotton Futures Higher to Begin Wednesday

Cotton Fabric and Textiles on Spools

Cotton prices start Wednesday trading 10 to 78 points higher. Turnaround Tuesday left the board 13 to 65 points higher. For March that moved price back above the $1.20 mark, while new crop Dec stayed a penny and 8 points under $1 at the day’s high. The US stock market once again saw late day selling, while purported safe haven gold was up another $6.40 per ounce to $1848.10. The FOMC will officially announce any interest rate moves it intends to make this afternoon at the conclusion of the two day meeting. 

The Seam reported 16,598 bales were sold on 1/24 for an average price of 112.33 cents. The 1/25 DSQ showed 18,553 bales of cotton was sold at spot. The Cotlook A index was down by another 190 points to 134.80 cents/lb. The AWP for cotton is 110.44 cents through Thursday. 

Mar 22 Cotton  closed at 120.92, up 54 points, up 78 this morning

May 22 Cotton  closed at 118.44, up 65 points, up 76 this morning

Dec 22 Cotton  closed at 98.84, up 48 points, up 10 this morning

Cattle Market Stabilizes, Awaits Cash Market Indications

Family rounding up cows cattle ranching in pasture

The Feb and April cattle futures ended with 77 cent and 2 cent gains respectively on Tuesday while later delivery months weakened by 15 to 30 cents. No trend has been established for cash trade this week, with limited activity in the WCB at $136. Feeder cattle futures were also red, closing off their intra day lows with $1.12 to $1.40 losses on Tuesday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/24 was $159.77, down by another 69 cents. 

Tuesday’s afternoon Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were lower. Choice dropped $1.12 to $292.38 cwt. and Select was down $1.47 to $283.32. Choice rib primals were quoted at $413.60, while Select ribs were $387.44 cwt. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 118k head for Tuesday. That has the WTD kill at 233k head, matching the same week last year. 

Feb 22 Cattle  closed at $137.100, up $0.775,

Jun 22 Cattle  closed at $135.425, down $0.150,

Jan 22 Feeder Cattle  closed at $158.550, up $0.075

Mar 22 Feeder Cattle  closed at $159.850, down $1.400

Corn Futures Steady to 4 Cents Lower This Morning

Corn Ear of Sweet

Corn futures are steady to 4 cents lower this morning. After having rallied more than 1% through midday, the front month corn futures complex faded into the close. For March it was enough to end Tuesday a penny in the red at $6.20/bu – still up 34 3/4 cents from the Jan 14th low. Cash sources cited increased farmer selling as prices hit the 50% retracement on the weekly continuation charts. The other front months held on to 1 to 3 1/2 cent gains. Preliminary open interest surged 21,976 contracts, confirming the cash market rumors. December 2022 and later futures were much stronger amid a continuing multi-commodity competition for 2022 US acreage. 

The national average corn basis from cmdtyView was 14 cents under March yesterday vs. minus 22 cents last year. The ECB basis is 5 cents weaker than last year at -20 cents, while the WCB basis is -12.5 cents compared to -27.5 cents last year. 

Ukraine still has about 19 MMT of corn to ship if it is to meet the USDA’s projection for the full marketing year (Sept-Aug based). The wheat /corn spread in the US has widened back to nearly $2/bu on the board from $1.45 two weeks ago. On the cash side, national average SRW prices are $1.67 above corn while HRW is a $1.81 premium. 

Mar 22 Corn  closed at $6.20, down 1 cent, down 4 this morning

Nearby Cash  was $6.06 on Tuesday, down 1 cents,

May 22 Corn  closed at $6.18 1/2, up 1 cent, down 3 this morning

Dec 22 Corn  closed at $5.69 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents, down ¼ this morning

New Crop Cash  was $5.53 7/8 on Tuesday, up 2 1/8 cents,

Soy Futures Close Mostly Higher for Turnaround Tuesday

fresh soy beans__480x320

The soy futures complex turned around on Tuesday with beans and bean oil gaining while meal faded. Soymeal futures ended the day with $1.30 to $1.90 losses. Beans dropped from their midday highs, but were still up 4 1/4 to 12 1/2 cents at the close. BO futures gained back 54 to 61 points for Turnaround Tuesday. 

The national average soybean basis is 44 cents under March according to cmdtyView data. That compares to -45 cents last year. WCB beans are 52 cents under, which is 8 cents firmer yr/yr, while the ECB average bean basis is 11 cents weaker at -32 cents. 

AgRural reported Brazil at 5% harvested for 21/22 soybeans. AgRural expects the total soy output to reach 133.4 MMT. 

Mar 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.07 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $13.62 1/2, up 4 cents,

May 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.16, up 5 cents,

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $13.18 1/2, up 11 cents,

New Crop Cash  was $12.60 1/4, up 11 1/4 cents,

Wheats Mostly Higher for Tuesday

Fields of wheat under a cloudy blue sky

The wheat market lost momentum in the afternoon, fading midday highs by more than a dime. For spring wheat it was enough for March to close lower. New crop HRS was still 9 cents in the black at the bell. Chicago SRW closed 14 3/4 to 18 1/4 cents in the black on Tuesday. HRW was also up by double digits despite the afternoon fade, ending the day 12 to 16 1/2 cents higher. 

Winter wheat conditions reported at the state level were weaker for the week, with Colorado down the most with a 15 point drop to 266 on the Brugler500 Index. KS scored a 292 on the Brugler500 Index, which compared to 303 last week and 315 last year. Winter wheat conditions were at 312 in NE and @ 254 in OK. In Texas, 71% of the wheat crop was rated poor or very poor. 

Mar 22 CBOT Wheat  closed at $8.18, up 17 1/2 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  was $7.78, up 18 cents,

Mar 22 KCBT Wheat  closed at $8.34 1/2, up 16 1/2 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  was $8.17 7/8, up 17 1/4 cents,

Mar 22 MGEX Wheat  closed at $9.47 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

Cotton Market Closes in Black

Cotton Grass Flower

Turnaround Tuesday cotton trading left the board 13 to 65 points higher. For March that moved price back above the $1.20 mark, while new crop Dec stayed a penny and 8 points under $1 at the day’s high. The US stock market once again had a very poor close, while purported safe haven gold (GLD) was up another $6.40 per ounce to $1848.10. 

Zhengzhou Cotton Prices in China were back up on 1/25 by 35 yuan to 22,105 yuan/MT (~ $1.58/lb). 

The Seam reported 16,598 bales were sold on 1/24 for an average price of 112.33 cents. The 1/25 DSQ showed 18,553 bales of cotton was sold at spot. The Cotlook A index was down by another 190 points to 134.80 cents/lb. The AWP for cotton is 110.44 cents through Thursday. 

Mar 22 Cotton  closed at 120.92, up 54 points,

May 22 Cotton  closed at 118.44, up 65 points,

Dec 22 Cotton  closed at 98.84, up 48 points

Corn Fades into Close

landscape of corn field at summer countryside

After having rallied more than 1% through midday, the front month corn futures complex faded into the close. For March it was enough to end a penny in the red at $6.20/bu – still up 34 3/4 cents from the Jan 14th low. The other front months held on to 1 to 3 1/2 cent gains. The national average corn basis from cmdtyView was 14 cents under March at midday. That compares to minus 22 cents last year. The ECB basis is 5 cents weaker than last year at -20 cents, while the WCB basis is -12.5 cents compared to -27.5 cents last year. Looking to new crop, cmdtyView data has the ECB corn basis at -27 cents, and the WCB basis at -35 cents. 

The wheat /corn spread has widened back to nearly $2/bu on the board. Back in November the front month SRW contract was a $2.56/bu premium to corn but had faded to just a $1.45 two weeks ago. On the cash side, SRW prices are $1.67 above corn while HRW is a $1.81 premium. 

Mar 22 Corn  closed at $6.20, down 1 cent,

Nearby Cash  was $6.06, down 1 cents,

May 22 Corn  closed at $6.18 1/2, up 1 cent,

Dec 22 Corn  closed at $5.69 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents,

New Crop Cash  was $5.53 7/8, up 2 1/8 cents,

Hogs Continued Higher on Tuesday

Pig Resting in Pen Hay

Front month lean hog futures continued their rally with another $0.62 to $2.22 gains for the front months. The summer contracts are all now above $100 and set new highs, while Feb is still under the June LOC high of $90.52. USDA’s National Average Base hog price was $6.44 stronger in the PM update at $72.13. The CME Lean Hog Index from 1/21 was $78.32, up by 81 cents.  

Pork cutout futures closed with gains of as much as $2.50 in the front months. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value for Tuesday was $92.46 after a $3.20 drop. The picnic cut was down the most with a $13.96 drop to 1-yr low $50.16. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter for Tuesday at 476,000 head. The week’s kill is 924k head, after a lighter Monday revision.

Feb 22 Hogs  closed at $87.450, up $1.125,

Apr 22 Hogs  closed at $97.250, up $1.925

Feb 22 Pork Cutout  closed at $97.575, up $1.500,

Cattle Close Mixed Mostly Lower

Black and White Cow in Field

The Feb and April cattle futures ended with 77 cent and 2 cent gains respectively on Tuesday as the other nearbys weakened by 15 to 30 cents. No trend has been established for cash trade this week, with just limited activity in the WCB yesterday reported at $136. Feeder cattle futures were also red, closing off their intra day lows with $1.12 to $1.40 losses on Tuesday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/24 was $159.77, down by another 69 cents. 

Tuesday’s afternoon Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were lower. Choice dropped $1.12 to $292.38 cwt. and Select was down $1.47 to $283.32. Choice rib primals were quoted at $413.60, while Select ribs were $387.44 cwt. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 118k head for Tuesday. That has the WTD kill at 233k head, matching the same week last year. 

Feb 22 Cattle  closed at $137.100, up $0.775,

Jun 22 Cattle  closed at $135.425, down $0.150,

Jan 22 Feeder Cattle  closed at $158.550, up $0.075

Mar 22 Feeder Cattle  closed at $159.850, down $1.400

Cattle Mixed Mostly Weaker

Brown Cow in Field(1)

Front month fat cattle futures are 17 to 45 cents in the red through midday, save for a nickel gain in the Feb contract. Cash trade remains mostly unestablished so far for the week, with just limited activity in the WCB yesterday reported at $136. Feeder cattle futures are trading red as well, giving back $1.52 to $2.17 so far. The Jan contract is 20 cents weaker on just 1,639 contracts of OI ahead of expiration. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down another 64 cents on 1/21 to $160.46. 

Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were weaker this morning as Choice dropped 16 cents and Select fell by 14 cents. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 115k head for Monday. That was 2,000 head more than last week but 1,000 head lighter than the same Monday last year. 

Feb 22 Cattle  are at $136.375, up $0.050,

Jun 22 Cattle  are at $135.275, down $0.300,

Jan 22 Feeder Cattle  are at $158.400, down $0.075

Mar 22 Feeder Cattle  are at $159.100, down $2.150

Cotton Prices Firm at Midday

Cotton Plant with Multiple Pieces

So far for Tuesday, front month cotton prices are 27 to 40 points in the black, but had backed off their early session strength. 

Zhengzhou Cotton Prices in China were red on 1/24, giving back half a percent to 22,070 yuan/MT (~ $1.58/lb).

The 1/24 DSQ showed 7,619 bales of upland cotton were sold at spot. The Cotlook A index was down by another 190 points to 134.80 cents/lb. The AWP for cotton is 110.44 cents through Thursday. 

Mar 22 Cotton  is at 120.65, up 27 points,

May 22 Cotton  is at 118.19, up 40 points,

Dec 22 Cotton  is at 98.61, up 25 points

Wheat Market Rallying another Double Digits

Field of wheat at golden hour

Wheat is extending the rally through midday with another 20+ cents. SRW is trading another 19 to 28 cents in the black with prices back to November levels. HRW futures are 20 1/2 to 29 cents stronger. Spring wheat is gaining another 13 1/4 to 17 1/2 cents through midday 

Winter wheat conditions were weaker for the week, with Colorado down the most with a 15 point drop to 266 on the Brugler500 Index. KS scored a 292 on the Brugler500 Index, which compared to 303 last week and 315 last year. Winter wheat conditions were at 312 in NE and @ 254 in OK. In Texas, 71% of the wheat crop was rated poor or very poor. 

Mar 22 CBOT Wheat  is at $8.26 1/2, up 26 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  is at $7.86 1/8, up 26 1/8 cents,

Mar 22 KCBT Wheat  is at $8.45 1/2, up 27 1/2 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  is at $8.27, up 27 1/2 cents,

Mar 22 MGEX Wheat  is at $9.62, up 13 1/2 cents,

Soy Futures Rally Back

Soybeans emerging in the spring__427x320

Turnaround Tuesday trading has the front month soybean futures complex back up by 10 1/4 to 10 1/2 cents for midday. New crop futures are up more than 1% with November futures just a few cents under their LOC high. Soymeal prices are firm with 10 to 60 cent/ton gains. BO prices are up 79 to 83 points in the front months. 

The national average soybean basis is 44 cents under March according to cmdtyView data. That compares to -45 cents last year. WCB beans are 52 cents under, which is 8 cents firmer yr/yr, while the ECB average bean basis is 11 cents weaker at -32 cents. 

AgRural reported Brazil at 5% harvested for 21/22 soybeans. AgRural expects the total soy output to reach 133.4 MMT. 

Mar 22 Soybeans  are at $14.12 1/2, up 9 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash   is at $13.68 1/1, up 9 1/2 cents,

May 22 Soybeans  are at $14.20 1/4, up 9 1/4 cents,

Nov 22 Soybeans  are at $13.21 3/4, up 14 1/4 cents,

New Crop Cash   is at $12.61 1/2, up 12 1/2 cents,

Lean Hogs Adding to Rally

Pigs feeding from trough in pen

The rally for lean hog futures is continuing through midday with prices up another $0.42 to $2.02 so far. Feb is still under the June LOC high of $90.52, but the other nearby contracts are setting new LOC highs. USDA’s National Average Morning Base hog price for Tuesday was 56 cents weaker at $61.25. The CME Lean Hog Index from 1/21 was $78.32, up by 81 cents.  

Pork cutout futures are also trading with triple digit strength through midday. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value for Tuesday morning was 12 cents weaker to $95.54. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter for Monday at 455,000 head. That compares to 395k last week and 489k during the same Monday last year.  

Feb 22 Hogs  are at $87.225, up $0.900,

Apr 22 Hogs  are at $96.900, up $1.575

Feb 22 Pork Cutout  is at $97.350, up $1.275,

Corn Prices Stronger at Midday

corn-57774_1920__480x318

The front month corn rally has added ~45 cents to corn’s value since Jan 14th, with the board up another 1% to 1.42% so far for midday. For March, that has prices within a dime of the LOC high set back in May. The national average corn basis from cmdtyView was 14 cents under March at midday. That compares to minus 22 cents last year. The ECB basis is 5 cents weaker than last year at -20 cents, while the WCB basis is -12.5 cents compared to -27.5 cents last year. Looking to new crop, cmdtyView data has the ECB corn basis at -27 cents, and the WCB basis at -35 cents. 

The wheat corn spread has widened back to nearly $2/bu on the board. Back in November the front month SRW contract was a $2.56/bu premium to corn but had faded to just a $1.45 two weeks ago. On the cash side, SRW prices are $1.67 above corn while HRW is a $1.81 premium. 

Mar 22 Corn  is at $6.29 3/4, up 8 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   is at $6.16 5/8, up 8 1/2 cents,

May 22 Corn  is at $6.26, up 8 1/2 cents,

Dec 22 Corn  is at $5.71 1/2, up 4 cents,

New Crop Cash   is at $5.56 5/8, up 4 7/8 cents,

Corn Futures Slightly Lower, Supported by Wheat

Corn Field Blue Sky__427x320

The corn market is trading UNCH to 1 ½ cents lower than last night’s close, giving little indication as to whether this is a Turnaround Tuesday. On Monday, corn prices bounced back from midday weakness to close with 2 to 4 3/4 cent gains in the front months. 

USDA’s weekly Export Inspections report showed corn shipments were 1.115 MMT during the week that ended 1/20. That was down from 1.237 MMT last week and below the 1.4 MMT shipped during the same week last year. China was the week’s top destination with 347,449 MT, followed by Mexico with 305k MT. The weekly data had MYTD corn exports at 16.44 MMT, compared to 18.9 MMT at the same point last season.

Mar 22 Corn  closed at $6.21, up 4 3/4 cents, down ¾ this morning

Nearby Cash  was $6.07 1/8 on Monday, up 4 3/4 cents,

May 22 Corn  closed at $6.17 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents, down ¼ this morning

Dec 22 Corn  closed at $5.67 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents, down 1 ½ this morning

New Crop Cash  was $5.51 ¾ on Monday, up 2 cents,

Cattle Futures Lower in Aftermath of COF Report, Cold Storage Stocks Rise

Brown cows with horns outside

Fat cattle futures were down $0.87 to $2.02 on Monday as they reacted to the Cattle on Feed data. April was the weakest on the day, though it closed more than $1 off the low and kept a $3.75 premium to Feb. Cash trade was mostly quiet for Monday save for some limited WCB $136 activity. Feeder cattle futures ended the Monday session with $1.60 to $2.05 losses in the front months. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down another 10 cents on 1/20 to $161.10. 

The monthly USDA Cold Storage report issued after the close showed beef stocks were 503.792m lbs in December. That was up from 490.4 million in November, but down 6% yr/yr. 

Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were higher for Monday with Choice up $1.09 and Select $2.46 stronger. For Choice that was a $1.09 boost as Select was up by $2.46. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 115k head for Monday. That was 2,000 head more than last week but 1,000 head lighter than the same Monday last year. 

Feb 22 Cattle  closed at $136.325, down $1.600,

Jun 22 Cattle  closed at $135.575, down $1.725,

Jan 22 Feeder Cattle  closed at $158.475, down $1.800

Mar 22 Feeder Cattle  closed at $161.250, down $2.050

Cotton Futures Higher to Start Session

Cotton - kolya-korzh-zrVY4blkWI4-unsplash

Cotton is trading 33 to 64 points higher early in the Tuesday day session. Cotton futures were both triple digits higher and triple digits lower during the Monday session before settling 18 to 35 points in the red. New crop cotton faded 48 to 62 points for the close. The weakness echoed a decline in crude oil, and initially lower US equity futures. The stock market rallied sharply and closed higher, after cotton trading had ended for the day. 

The 1/24 DSQ showed 7,619 bales of upland cotton were sold at spot. The Cotlook A index was down by 80 points to 136.70 c/lb for 1/21. The AWP for cotton is 110.44 cents through Thursday. 

Mar 22 Cotton  closed at 120.4, down 35 points, and up 60 this morning

May 22 Cotton  closed at 117.79, down 19 points, and up 64 this morning

Dec 22 Cotton  closed at 98.36, down 49 points, and up 34 this morning

Soybean Futures Lower Early

A hand scooping soybeans

Overnight price movement in the soy market has futures 4 to 6 cents lower early Tuesday.  Meal futures weakness is a drag on product value. Soybean futures closed 10 3/4 to 13 1/4 cents in the red on Monday. Preliminary open interest data shows a reduction in March after February options expiration, but net new selling of 4,262 contracts overall. Going home, meal prices were within $1.60 of UNCH. Soybean oil bounced from the intraday lows, but the front months were still triple digits weaker at the close. 

Malaysian Palm Prices  were down 0.85% on Monday after printing new highs. Canadian Canola Prices are sharply lower on Monday with a 2.64% drop, and European Rapeseed Futures  were down nearly 5%. 

USDA reported a soybean sale to China yesterday morning under the daily reporting system. Of the 132k MT booked, half was for old crop and the other 66k MT is for 2022/23 delivery. Weekly Export Inspections data showed 1.3 MMT of soybeans were exported during the week that ended 1/20. That was down 429k MT from the week prior and 806k MT less than the same week last year. Brazilian FOB prices are very competitive for nearby shipment, less so for late spring and summer. 

Mar 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.03, down 11 1/4 cents, and down 5 ¼ this morning

Nearby Cash  was $13.58 ½ on Monday, down 11 5/8 cents,

May 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.11, down 12 cents, and down 5 ¼ this morning

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $13.07 1/2, down 8 3/4 cents, and down 4 ½ this morning

New Crop Cash  was $12.49 on Monday, down 8 5/8 cents,

Wheat Futures Higher to Begin Tuesday

Baked wheat bread sliced

Following the double digit rally yesterday, wheat futures are up 6 to 12 cents this morning on follow through buying. French wheat futures are also higher, as the most likely direct beneficiary of any Russian supply disruptions. The winter wheat futures led the Monday rally with 2.6% gains in SRW and 2.5% to 3.1% gains in HRW. Preliminary open interest shows short covering in old crop SRW, with net new buying for CBT July and later contracts. Spring wheat futures were 8 1/4 to 11 1/2 cents higher at the Monday close. 

Winter wheat conditions declined for the week, with Colorado down the most with a 15 point drop to 266 on the Brugler500 Index. KS scored a 292 on the Brugler500 Index, which compared to 303 last week and 315 last year at this time. Winter wheat conditions were at 312 in NE and @ 254 in OK. 

Wheat shipments from the week that ended 1/20 were 400,973 MT. That compares to 384,291 MT from the week prior and 571,677 MT during the same week last year. USDA’s data had the majority of the shipment (161k MT) as HRW, with 122k MT as HRS. MYTD wheat exports reached 13.218 MMT through 1/20. That trails last season’s pace by 18%. 

Mar 22 CBOT Wheat  closed at $8.00 1/2, up 20 1/2 cents, and up 12 ¼ this morning

Cash SRW Wheat  was $7.60 1/8 on Monday, up 20 5/8 cents,

Mar 22 KCBT Wheat  closed at $8.18, up 24 3/4 cents, and up 9 ¾ this morning

Cash HRW Wheat  was $8.00 5/8 on Monday, up 24 3/4 cents,

Mar 22 MGEX Wheat  closed at $9.46 1/2, up 10 1/2 cents, and up 6 this morning

Hog Futures Advance Slows, Cold Storage Stocks Very Tight

Pig in pen

Hog futures have rallied more than $10 since Jan 13th’s low, with $0.12 to $1.17 gains on Monday. The back months faded with July only adding a nickel to value and August closing $1.20 in the red. USDA’s National Average Afternoon Base hog price for Monday was $3 higher to $65.69. The CME Lean Hog Index from 1/19 was $76.79 after a 6 cent pullback. 

USDA reported December 31 pork stocks at a 25-yr low of 398.9m lbs in their monthly Cold Storage report. That was the lowest inventory for any month since August of 2010. Belly stocks (used for bacon) were up 56% from November to 39.5m lbs. 

Pork cutout futures were 2 cents to $1.07 weaker yesterday. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value for Monday was $2.37 higher to $95.66. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter for Monday at 455,000 head. That compares to 395k last week and 489k during the same Monday last year.  

Feb 22 Hogs  closed at $86.325, up $0.125,

Apr 22 Hogs  closed at $95.325, up $0.375

Feb 22 Pork Cutout  closed at $96.075, down $0.025,

Monday Corn Rallies into Close

Yellow corn that has had its husks removed

Corn prices bounced back from midday weakness to close the first trade day of the week with 2 to 4 3/4 cent gains in the front months. USDA announced a private corn sale this morning, as unknown destinations bought 150k MT of old crop corn. 

USDA’s weekly Export Inspections report showed corn shipments were 1.115 MMT during the week that ended 1/20. That was down from 1.237 MMT last week and below the 1.4 MMT shipped during the same week last year. China was the week’s top destination with 347,449 MT, followed by Mexico with 305k MT. The weekly data had MYTD corn exports at 16.44 MMT, compared to 18.9 MMT at the same point last season.

Mar 22 Corn  closed at $6.21, up 4 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $6.07 1/8, up 4 3/4 cents,

May 22 Corn  closed at $6.17 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents,

Dec 22 Corn  closed at $5.67 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents,

New Crop Cash  was $5.51 3/4, up 2 cents,

Double Digit Rally for Domestic Wheat

Field of wheat

Front month wheat futures were double digits higher today. The winter wheat futures led the rally with 2.6% gains in SRW and 2.5% to 3.1% gains in HRW. Spring wheat futures were up by 8 1/4 to 11 1/2 cents higher at the Monday close. 

Winter wheat conditions were weaker for the week, with Colorado down the most with a 15 point drop to 266 on the Brugler500 Index. KS scored a 292 on the Brugler500 Index, which compared to 303 last week and 315 last year. Winter wheat conditions were at 312 in NE and @ 254 in OK. 

Wheat shipments from the week that ended 1/20 were 400,973 MT. That compares to 384,291 MT from the week prior and 571,677 MT during the same week last year. USDA’s data had the majority of the shipment (161k MT) as HRW, with 122k MT as HRS. MYTD wheat exports reached 13.218 MMT through 1/20. That trails last season’s pace by 18%. 

Russia’s Federal Center of Quality and Safety Assurance for Grain reported 23 MMT of wheat had been shipped through Jan 20th. That trails last season’s pace by 21%. Algeria’s Ag Minister reported wheat harvest at 2.7 MMT for the 21/22 crop. That was sufficient for a 26% import reduction forecast on their part. USDA’s data has Algeria producing 3.6 MMT and importing 20k MT more than 20/21. 

Mar 22 CBOT Wheat  closed at $8.00 1/2, up 20 1/2 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  was $7.60 1/8, up 20 5/8 cents,

Mar 22 KCBT Wheat  closed at $8.18, up 24 3/4 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  was $8.00 5/8, up 24 3/4 cents,

Mar 22 MGEX Wheat  closed at $9.46 1/2, up 10 1/2 cents,

Triple Digit Losses for Live Cattle

Simmental Cow

Fat cattle futures pulled back on Monday with $0.87 to $2.02 losses as they reacted to the Cattle on Feed report. April was the weakest on the day, though closed more than $1 off the low and kept a $3.75 premium to Feb. Cash trade was mostly quiet for Monday save for some limited WCB $136 activity. Feeder cattle futures ended the Monday session with $1.60 to $2.05 losses in the front months. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down another 10 cents on 1/20 to $161.10. 

The monthly USDA Cold Storage report issued after the close showed beef stocks were 503.792m lbs in December. That was up from 490.4 in November, but down 6% yr/yr. 

Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were higher for Monday with Choice up $1.09 and Select $2.46 stronger. For Choice that was a $1.09 boost as Select was up by $2.46. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 115k head for Monday. That was 2,000 head more than last week but 1,000 head lighter than the same Monday last year. 

Feb 22 Cattle  closed at $136.325, down $1.600,

Jun 22 Cattle  closed at $135.575, down $1.725,

Jan 22 Feeder Cattle  closed at $158.475, down $1.800

Mar 22 Feeder Cattle  closed at $161.250, down $2.050

Cotton Closes Red on Monday

Cotton Field

Cotton futures were both triple digits higher and triple digits lower during the Monday session before settling 18 to 35 points in the red. New crop cotton faded 48 to 62 points for the close. The weakness echoed a decline in crude oil, and initially lower US equity futures. The stock market rallied sharply and closed higher after cotton trading had ended for the day. 

The 1/24 DSQ showed 7,619 bales of upland cotton were sold at spot. The Cotlook A index was down by 80 points to 136.70 c/lb for 1/21. The AWP for cotton is 110.44 cents through Thursday. 

Mar 22 Cotton  closed at 120.4, down 35 points,

May 22 Cotton  closed at 117.79, down 19 points,

Dec 22 Cotton  closed at 98.36, down 49 points

Soy Mixed on Weak Beans

young soy bean growing summertime

The Monday soy complex closed mixed but mostly lower, as soymeal recovered into the close. Going home meal prices were within $1.60 of UNCH. Soybean oil bounced from the intra day lows, but the front months were still triple digits weaker at the bell. Soybean futures closed 10 3/4 to 13 1/4 cents in the red on Monday. 

Malaysian Palm Prices  were down 0.85% on Monday after printing new highs. Canadian Canola Prices are sharply lower on Monday with a 2.64% drop, as were European Rapeseed Futures  down nearly 5%. 

USDA reported a soybean sale to China this morning under the daily reporting system. Of the 132k MT booked, half is for old crop and the other 66k MT is for new crop delivery, basically one vessel of each. Weekly Export Inspections data showed 1.3 MMT of soybeans were exported during the week that ended 1/20. That was down 429k MT from the week prior and 806k MT below the same week last year. 

Mar 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.03, down 11 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $13.58 1/2, down 11 5/8 cents,

May 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.11, down 12 cents,

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $13.07 1/2, down 8 3/4 cents,

New Crop Cash  was $12.49, down 8 5/8 cents,

Hog Market Continued the Rally through Monday

Pigs feeding from trough in pen

Hog futures have rallied more than $10 since Jan 13th’s low, with $0.12 to $1.17 gains on Monday. The back months faded with July only adding a nickel to value and August closing $1.20 in the red. USDA’s National Average Afternoon Base hog price for Monday was $3 higher to $65.69. The CME Lean Hog Index from 1/19 was $76.79 after a 6 cent pullback. 

USDA reported December pork stocks at a 25-yr low of 398.9m lbs in their monthly Cold Storage report. That was the lowest inventory of any month since August of 2010. Belly stocks were actually up 56% from November to 39.5m lbs. 

Pork cutout futures were 2 cents to $1.07 weaker on the day. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value for Monday was $2.37 higher to $95.66. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter for Monday at 455,000 head. That compares to 395k last week and 489k during the same Monday last year.  

Feb 22 Hogs  closed at $86.325, up $0.125,

Apr 22 Hogs  closed at $95.325, up $0.375

Feb 22 Pork Cutout  closed at $96.075, down $0.025,

Cotton Fading by Triple Digits

Cotton Field with Trees in Backgound

Cotton futures are down by triple digits through midday. That comes off earlier session gains of triple digits and is tied to the plunging US stock market and concerns about economic activity. 

Weekly CFTC data showed managed money firms were 844 contracts more net long in cotton during the week that ended 1/18. The net new buying left the group 77,608 contracts net long. Commercial cotton traders added hedges on both sides for just a 302 contract stronger net short. Commercial OI increased 8,940 contracts through the week and the group was 152,697 contracts net short on 1/18. 

The Cotlook A index was down by 80 points to 136.70 c/lb for 1/21. The AWP for cotton is 110.44 cents through Thursday. 

Mar 22 Cotton  is at 119.74, down 101 points,

May 22 Cotton  is at 117.17, down 81 points,

Dec 22 Cotton  is at 97.59, down 126 points

Wheat Prices Gaining through Midday

Wheat beth-macdonald-1OaAaZBpRDE-unsplash

Wheat futures are starting the week with gains led by double digits in HRW. KC wheat futures are up 1.5% to 1.9% with the board back above the $8 mark. Chicago wheat futures are up 8 3/4 to 9 1/2 cents through Monday’s midday. Spring wheat is Domestic wheat futures are also higher so far with 2 1/2 to 4 cent gains.

Wheat shipments from the week that ended 1/20 were 400,973 MT. That compares to 384,291 MT from the week prior and 571,677 MT during the same week last year. USDA’s data had the majority of the shipment (161k MT) as HRW, with 122k MT as HRS. MYTD wheat exports reached 13.218 MMT through 1/20. That trails last season’s pace by 18%. 

Russia’s Federal Center of Quality and Safety Assurance for Grain reported 23 MMT of wheat had been shipped through Jan 20th. That trails last season’s pace by 21%. Algeria’s Ag Minister reported wheat harvest at 2.7 MMT for the 21/22 crop. That was sufficient for a 26% import reduction forecast on their part. USDA’s data has Algeria producing 3.6 MMT and importing 20k MT more than 20/21. 

Mar 22 CBOT Wheat  is at $7.90 3/4, up 10 3/4 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  is at $7.50 3/8, up 10 7/8 cents,

Mar 22 KCBT Wheat  is at $8.09 1/4, up 16 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  is at $7.91 7/8, up 16 cents,

Mar 22 MGEX Wheat  is at $9.40 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents,

Hogs Continuing Higher

Pig Resting in Pen Hay

Lean hog prices are another $0.67 to $1.27 stronger on the rally to new contract highs through Monday’s midday. For May, that new LOC high is now in the $100s. August futures are the outlier with a midday pullback of 7 cents. USDA’s National Average Base hog price for Monday was $61.81 after a $1.36 increase. The CME Lean Hog Index from 1/19 was $76.79 after a 6 cent pullback. 

Pork cutout futures are mixed but mostly higher through midday, with gains of 95 cents. Feb is down 17 so far. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value for Monday morning was $8.89 higher to $102.18. Loins were $1.01 weaker as the other cuts were stronger, notably hams (+$14.34) and bellies (+$22.32). USDA estimated the week’s federally inspected hog slaughter at 2.44m head through Saturday. That was 74k head more wk/wk, but down 278k head yr/yr. 

Feb 22 Hogs  are at $86.375, up $0.175,

Apr 22 Hogs  are at $95.625, up $0.675

Feb 22 Pork Cutout  is at $95.750, down $0.350,

Corn Prices Weaken out of Weekend

landscape of corn field at summer countryside

Front month corn futures are trading 1 1/4 to 4 1/2 cents in the red through midday. New crop is weaker so far. USDA announced a private corn sale this morning, as unknown destinations bought 150k MT of old crop corn. 

USDA’s weekly Export Inspections report showed corn shipments were 1.115 MMT during the week that ended 1/20. That was down from 1.237 MMT last week and below the 1.4 MMT shipped during the same week last year. China was the week’s top destination with 347,449 MT, followed by Mexico with 305k MT. The weekly data had MYTD corn exports at 16.44 MMT, compared to 18.9 MMT at the same point last season.

Mar 22 Corn  is at $6.15 1/4, down 1 cent,

Nearby Cash  is at $6.01 3/8, down 1 cent,

May 22 Corn  is at $6.11 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents,

Dec 22 Corn  is at $5.61, down 4 1/4 cents,

New Crop Cash  is at $5.44 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents,

Soy Market Red for Midday

Large pile of soybeans

Front month soybeans are down double digits with 18 to 26 1/2 cent losses so far for Monday. Meal prices are $3.30 to $4.10 in the red so far. BO prices are down by triple digits through midday with 2.3% to 2.35% losses. They had been sharply higher last week. 

Malaysian Palm Prices  were down 0.85% on Monday after printing new highs. Canadian Canola Prices are sharply lower through midday with a 3% drop, as are European Rapeseed Futures  with a 4% drop. 

USDA reported a soybean sale to China this morning under the daily reporting system. Of the 132k MT booked, half is for old crop and the other 66k MT is for new crop delivery, basically one vessel of each. Weekly Export Inspections data showed 1.3 MMT of soybeans were exported during the week that ended 1/20. That was down 429k MT from the week prior and 806k MT below the same week last year. 

Mar 22 Soybeans  are at $13.90 1/4, down 24 cents,

Nearby Cash  is at $13.46, down 24 cents,

May 22 Soybeans  are at $13.98, down 25 cents,

Nov 22 Soybeans  are at $12.99, down 17 1/4 cents,

New Crop Cash  is at $12.40 3/4, down 17 7/8 cents,

Cattle Market Down Triple Digits

Young Cows in Pen Together

Monday’s market for fat cattle futures has the board $1.55 to $2.65 in the red so far. Feeder cattle are also triple digits weaker with $2.87 to $3.87 losses so far. USDA reported the bulk of cash sales were at $137 for last week. For The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down another 10 cents on 1/20 to $161.10. 

Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were stronger in Monday’s AM report. Choice was up by 35 cents, as Select was $1.69 stronger to tighten the spread to $8.74. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter for the week at 636k head through Saturday. That is 18k head more wk/wk, but 26k head below the same week last year. 

Feb 22 Cattle  are at $136.000, down $1.925,

Jun 22 Cattle  are at $135.075, down $2.225,

Jan 22 Feeder Cattle  are at $158.775, down $1.500

Mar 22 Feeder Cattle  are at $159.650, down $3.650

Wheat Markets Higher, Partially Offsetting Friday Losses

Wheat marcin-kempa-97WoWlUoM0M-unsplash

Domestic wheat futures are 4 to 9 cents higher to begin Monday, with KC HRW the strongest. At the Friday close, SRW futures were 0.6% to 1.3% in the red and March was down by double digits. March SRW was still 5.2% higher from Friday to Friday. HRW futures closed 0.3% to 0.44% weaker on Friday, which for March left the week gain at 6.5%. March MPLS wheat gained 6.6% from Friday to Friday, despite the front months dropping 4 3/4 to 9 cents on Friday. 

FAS Export Sales data showed wheat bookings were 380,645 MT for the week that ended 1/13. USDA reported the week’s exports at 391,370 MT. Accumulated wheat shipments reached 11.7 MMT with another 4.8 MMT of unshipped sales on the books.

CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money firms were buying SRW through the week that ended 1/18. That left the group 2,863 contracts less net short at 24,901. For HRW, the weekly data release had managed money 36,119 contracts net long. That was a 25 week low for their net position driven by long liquidation. Spec traders were 3,857 contracts net long in MPLS wheat, a 1,877 weaker net position from the week prior. 

Mar 22 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.80, down 10 1/4 cents, up 5 ½ this morning

Cash SRW Wheat  was $7.39 ½ on Friday, down 10 1/4 cents,

Mar 22 KCBT Wheat  closed at $7.93 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents, up 9 ¼ this morning

Cash HRW Wheat  was $7.75 7/8 on Friday, down 3 1/4 cents,

Mar 22 MGEX Wheat  closed at $9.36, down 8 3/4 cents, up 3 ¾ this morning

Cotton Futures Higher This Morning As Funds Remain Bullish

Cotton Grass Flower

Cotton futures are mostly 15 to 168 points higher this morning, with nearby March leading the bull charge. Cotton futures closed the last trading session of the week 143 to 212 points in the red. For the week, March cotton was 0.88% higher. New crop cotton futures were also 4 to 68 points in the red on Friday. 

Weekly CFTC data showed managed money firms were 844 contracts more net long in cotton during the week that ended 1/18. The net new buying left the group 77,608 contracts net long. Commercial cotton traders added hedges on both sides for just a 302 contract stronger net short. Commercial OI increased 8,940 contracts through the week and the group was 152,697 contracts net short on 1/18. 

Cotton bookings from the weekly Export Sales report were 273,045 RBs. Accumulated bookings were up to 11.27m RBs as of 1/13, which was 7.3% behind last season’s pace. 

USDA’s weekly Cotton Market Review reported 133,793 bales were sold in the cash market during the week for an average cash price of 118.50 cents. The Cotlook A index was 137.50 cents/lb on 1/20, up by another 295 points. The AWP for cotton is 110.44 cents through Thursday. 

Mar 22 Cotton  closed at 120.75, down 212 points, but are up 168 this morning

May 22 Cotton  closed at 117.98, down 169 points, but are up 155 this morning

Dec 22 Cotton  closed at 98.85, down 16 points, and are up 15 this morning.

Soybean Futures Are 4 to 7 Cents Lower As Brazilian Harvest Accelerates

Large pile of soybeans

Soybean prices are 4 to 7 cents lower to begin the new week. After rallying sharply on Wednesday and Thursday, soybeans eased back 10 3/4 to 11 1/2 cents on Friday. March still settled 3.25% higher for the week. Soymeal futures were $6.40 to $8.10 in the red on Friday, and ended the week with a $12.90 loss in the March contract. Soybean oil futures gained 7.7% from Friday to Friday, buoyed by a 7.4% jump in Malaysian palm oil. At the Friday close, front month BO futures were 12 to 17 points higher.  Malaysian Palm Prices are down more than 1% today. 

The weekly data showed 671k MT of beans were booked during the week that ended 1/13. Bean exports were 1.8 MMT for the week, leaving the MYTD export program at 33.4 MMT (1.23 bbu). 

The weekly CoT report had soybean spec traders at 99,639 contracts net long on 1/18. That was a 7,240 contract weaker net position than the previous week, due to net new spec selling. Some of them were handled rudely on Wednesday and Thursday! Commercial bean traders were just 1,720 contracts less net short at 249,506. 

SAFRAS estimates that 5% of the Brazilian soybean harvest has been completed, running ahead of the 2.8% average pace. For top producer Mato Grosso, they say 13% harvested vs. 8% average. 

Mar 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.14 1/4, down 11 1/2 cents, down 4 ½ this morning

Nearby Cash  was $13.70 on Friday, down 12 cents,

May 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.23, down 11 1/2 cents, down 5 ¾ this morning

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $13.16 1/4, down 4 cents, down 6 ¾ this morning

New Crop Cash  was $12.57 3/8 on Friday, down 4 cents,

Hogs Extended Gains on Friday, Nearby Futures up 6.5% Last Week

Piglets in a_ pasture

Hog futures ended the Friday session $0.60 to $1.27 higher with Feb up the most. From Friday to Friday Feb hog futures were 6.5% higher and trading at 3-month highs. The other front months set new contract highs during the week. USDA’s National Average Base hog price for Friday was down $3.87 to $62.69. The CME Lean Hog Index from 1/19 was $76.79 after a 6 cent pullback. 

Pork cutout futures closed with some triple digit gains on Friday, going home $0.57 to $1.60 higher. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was $93.29 on Friday afternoon, up by $1.05. USDA estimated the week’s federally inspected hog slaughter at 2.44m head through Saturday. That is 74k head more wk/wk, but down 278k head yr/yr. 

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed the large managed money spec funds were still net long 48,795 contracts as of January 18. Despite the rally, their position only changed 9 contracts vs. the previous week. What was notable was the 888 contract increase from the ‘buy and hold’ index funds. 

Feb 22 Hogs  closed at $86.200, up $1.275,

Apr 22 Hogs  closed at $94.950, up $0.950

Feb 22 Pork Cutout  closed at $96.100, up $1.600,