News Source: BRUG

Soybean Traders Take Money Off the Table Ahead of the Holiday

Soybeans futures settled with 7 to 8 ¼ cent losses in the front months on Wednesday. The 7 ¼ cent losses was the largest move lower for Jan futures since October 28. Soybean meal was down 30 cents/ton, with bean oil 14 points higher. The weekly Export Sales report, pushed back to Friday, is expected to show 0.7-1.4 MMT in soybean sales for the week ending last Thursday. Meal bookings are seen at 100,000-300,000 MT, with bean oil in a range of 12,000-50,000 MT. According to Customs data out of China, 8.688 MMT of soybeans were imported during October, up 40.6% from last year. Of that total, 3.4 MMT were from the US (nearly triple 2019), with 4.23 MMT originating from Brazil. Brazil’s 20/21 soybean crop is estimated at 130 MMT by Rabobank, which is 3 MMT shy of the current USDA number.

JAN 21 Soybeans closed at $11.84, down 7 1/4 cents,
MAR 21 Soybeans closed at $11.86 1/4, down 7 cents,
MAY 21 Soybeans closed at $11.84 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents,
JUL 21 Soybeans closed at $11.80 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents,
DEC 20 Soybean Meal closed at $398.00, down $0.30,
DEC 20 Soybean Oil closed at $38.20, up $0.14

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Beef Up Ahead of Thanksgiving

Live cattle futures saw gains of 17 to 35 cents in the nearby contracts on Wednesday. Feeder cattle futures posted triple digit gains in the front months, with help coming from losses in the gran complex. The 11/24 CME Feeder Cattle Index was $137.30, up 18 cents from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher again in the Wednesday PM report. Choice was up $0.76 at $245.06/cwt, with Select up $1.19 to $220.90/cwt. A few cash trades were reported at $111 earlier on Wednesday, with northern sales of $174 in the beef. USDA estimated Wednesday’s FI cattle slaughter at 118,000 head, down 1,000 from a week ago and the same day last year. The week to date (WTD) is 360,000 head, up 1,000 head from last week. 

 

DEC 20 Cattle closed at $111.350, up $0.175,
FEB 21 Cattle closed at $114.150, up $0.200,
APR 21 Cattle closed at $117.500, up $0.350,
JAN 21 Feeder Cattle closed at $140.275, up $1.675
MAR 21 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.450, up $1.325
APR 21 Feeder Cattle closed at $140.525, up $1.175

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management 

Cotton Closes Lower on Wednesday

Cotton futures were 54 to 63 points in the red on Wednesday, continuing a retreat from new highs set on Monday. The markets will be closed on Thursday, with no overnight session on Thursday night. They will resume on Friday morning, with an early close. USDA’s Export Sales report is also pushed back to Friday. On Tuesday, The Seam posted a sale of just 3,437 bales traded at an average price of 65.82 cents/lb, up 79 down 4.65 cents from the previous day, likely on the low volume. The Cotlook A index was up another 95 points to 80.15 cents/lb as of November 24. The AWP for cotton is 56.84 cents/lb. through Thursday.

DEC 20 Cotton closed at 70.9, down 63 points,
MAR 21 Cotton closed at 72.41, down 57 points
MAY 21 Cotton closed at 73.29, down 54 points
JUL 21 Cotton closed at 73.91, down 56 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Posts Double Digit Losses on Wednesday

Wheat futures took a nosedive in the winter wheat contracts on Wednesday, with MPLS down 7 to 9 ¾ cents. Nearby Chicago was down 24 cents on the day, the largest single day drop since August 12, 2019. KC was down 18 cents. Egypt’s GASC apparently noticed and issued an import tender for wheat with results due on Thursday. South Korean importers purchased 80,000 MT and Taiwan mills purchased 82,220 MT of US wheat on Wednesday. Friday’s delayed Export Sales report, which will not include those sales, is expected to show 200,000-400,000 MT of wheat bookings during the week of 11/19. That would be an improvement over last week’s MY low of 192,389 MT. Russia’s SovEcon raised their 20/21 wheat production estimated by 900,000 MT to 85.3 MMT. They also increased the country’s projected exports by 1 to 40.8 MMT.

DEC 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.87 1/4, down 24 cents,
DEC 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.43, down 18 cents,
DEC 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.43 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management 

Corn Head into Turkey Break Lower

Corn futures closed the pre-Thanksgiving session with 5 ¼ to 5 ¾ cent losses in the front months. Trading will resume Friday morning at 8:30 CST. EIA data for the week of 11/20 showed ethanol production 28,000 bpd higher than the previous week at 990,000 bpd, the largest since BC (Before COVID). Stocks also rose 663,000 barrels to 20.833 million, with the Midwest and Gulf taking up a majority of that buildup. Finished motor gasoline product supplied was down 128,000 bpd to 8.129 million, the lowest since the week of June 12. That is down 1.075 million from the week before Thanksgiving last year as states implement stay at home restrictions. US corn Export sales for the week of 11/19 are expected to be in a range of 0.8-1.4 MMT in Friday’s report. RaboBank estimates the 20/21 Brazilian corn crop at 107.2 MMT, vs. the current USDA projection of 110 MMT.

DEC 20 Corn closed at $4.20, down 5 3/4 cents,
MAR 21 Corn closed at $4.27 1/4, down 5 1/4 cents,
MAY 21 Corn closed at $4.30 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents
JUL 21 Corn closed at $4.31 1/4, down 5 1/4 cents

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs Head Higher into the Holiday

Lean hog futures ended the Wednesday session with gains of 67 cents to $1.07 in the nearby contracts. December Pork Cutout futures were $1.07 higher on Wednesday. The CME Lean Hog Index for Nov 23 was down 13 cents at $67.70. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was down 50 cents at $57.39 in the PM report. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was up 77 cents on Wednesday afternoon to $78.35. USDA FI hog slaughter for Wednesday was again 494,000 head. The WTD total is 1.462 million head, 24,000 more than last week and 26,000 larger than the same week in 2019.

DEC 20 Hogs closed at $66.300, up $1.000,
FEB 21 Hogs closed at $67.825, up $1.075
APR 21 Hogs closed at $70.900, up $0.675
DEC 20 Pork Cutout closed at $81.200, up $1.075,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management 

Soybeans Heading Lower on Wednesday

Soybeans futures are trading 5 to 6 ½ cents lower in the final session before Thanksgiving. Soybean meal is down $2.30/ton, with bean oil 50 points higher. The weekly Export Sales report, pushed back to Friday, is expected to show 0.7-1.4 MMT in soybean sales for the week ending last Thursday. Meal bookings are seen at 100,000-300,000 MT, with bean oil in a range of 12,000-50,000 MT. According to Customs data out of China, imports brought in a total of 8.688 MMT of soybeans during October, up 40.6% from last year. Of that total, 3.4 MMT were from the US (nearly triple 2019), with 4.23 MMT originating from Brazil. Brazil’s 20/21 soybean crop is estimated at 130 MMT by Rabobank, which is 3 MMT shy of the current USDA number.

JAN 21 Soybeans closed at $11.86, down 5 1/4 cents,
MAR 21 Soybeans closed at $11.87 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents,
MAY 21 Soybeans closed at $11.85 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents,
JUL 21 Soybeans closed at $11.81 3/4, down 6 cents,
DEC 20 Soybean Meal closed at $396.00, down $2.30,
DEC 20 Soybean Oil closed at $38.56, up $0.50

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat the Leader to the Downside on Wednesday

Wheat futures are posting sharp double digit losses in the winter wheat contracts on Wednesday. MPLS is down 6 to 9 cents. In an international tender on Wednesday, South Korean importers purchased 80,000 MT of US wheat. Additionally, Taiwan mills purchased 82,220 MT of USD wheat in a tender that ended on Wednesday. Friday’s delayed Export Sales report, which will not include those sales, is expected to show 200,000-400,000 MT of wheat bookings during the week of 11/19. That would be an improvement over last week’s MY low of 192,389 MT. Russia’s SovEcon raised their 20/21 wheat production estimated by 900,000 MT to 85.3 MMT. They also increased the country’s projected exports by 1 to 40.8 MMT.

DEC 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.91 3/4, down 19 1/2 cents,
DEC 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.46, down 15 cents,
DEC 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.44, down 6 3/4 cents

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management 

Corn Retreating Before the Holiday Break

Corn futures are down 3 to 4 cents at midday. EIA data for the week of 11/20 was released this morning. Production ticked 28,000 bpd higher to 990,000 bpd, the largest since COVID became an issue. Stocks also rose 663,000 barrels to 20.833 million, with the Midwest and Gulf taking up a majority of that buildup. One number that jumped out was the finished motor gasoline product supplied which was down 128,000 bpd to 8.129 million, the lowest since the week of June 12. That is down 1.075 million from the week before Thanksgiving last year. Export sales for the week of 11/19 are expected to be in a range of 0.8-1.4 MMT in Friday’s report. RaboBank estimates the 20/21 Brazilian corn crop at 107.2 MMT, vs. the current USDA projection of 110 MMT.

DEC 20 Corn closed at $4.21 3/4, down 4 cents,
MAR 21 Corn closed at $4.28 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents,
MAY 21 Corn closed at $4.31 3/4, down 4 cents
JUL 21 Corn closed at $4.33 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Holding Strong Before Thanksgiving

Live cattle futures are holding strong on Wednesday with front months firm to 20 cents higher.  Feeder cattle futures are up 82 cents to $1.275, with help coming from losses on the gran complex. The 11/19 CME Feeder Cattle Index was $137.12, up 18 cents from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher again in the Wednesday AM report. Choice was up $0.62 at $244.92/cwt, with Select up $1.40 to $221.11/cwt. A few bids in the South at $111 have surfaced, but no trade has been reported. USDA estimates Tuesday’s FI cattle slaughter at 122,000 head, up 1,000 from a week ago and well above last year. The week to date (WTD) is 242,000 head, up 2,000 head from last week. 

DEC 20 Cattle closed at $111.375, up $0.200,
FEB 21 Cattle closed at $113.975, up $0.025,
APR 21 Cattle closed at $117.250, up $0.100,
JAN 21 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.875, up $1.275
MAR 21 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.050, up $0.925
APR 21 Feeder Cattle closed at $140.175, up $0.825

 

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management 

Hogs Higher Leading Up to Turkey-Day

Lean hog futures are up 35 to 60 cents at midday. December Pork Cutout futures are 42 cents higher on Wednesday. The CME Lean Hog Index for Nov 23 was down 13 cents at $67.70. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was down 41 cents at $57.48 in the AM report. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was up 56 cents on Wednesday morning to $78.14. USDA FI hog slaughter for Tuesday was again 497,000 head. The WTD total is 994,000, 24,000 more than last week and 11,000 larger than the same week in 2019.

DEC 20 Hogs closed at $65.675, up $0.375,
FEB 21 Hogs closed at $67.350, up $0.600
APR 21 Hogs closed at $70.575, up $0.350
DEC 20 Pork Cutout closed at $80.550, up $0.425,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management 

Cotton Lower on Wednesday

Cotton futures are down 42 to 63 points in the nearby contracts on Wednesday. The markets will be closed on Thursday, with no overnight session on Thursday night. They will resume on Friday morning, with an early close. On Tuesday, The Seam posted a sale of just 3,437 bales traded at an average price of 65.82 cents/lb, up 79 down 4.65 cents from the previous day, likely on the low volume. The Cotlook A index was up another 95 points to 80.15 cents/lb as of November 24. The AWP for cotton is 56.84 cents/lb. through Thursday.

DEC 20 Cotton closed at 70.9, down 63 points,
MAR 21 Cotton closed at 72.47, down 51 points
MAY 21 Cotton closed at 73.35, down 48 points
JUL 21 Cotton closed at 74.05, down 42 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Futures Mixed As Dollar Weakens

Soybeans futures are fractionally lower for the 2021 crop contracts, but up 1 cent per bushel in the old crop months. They tried a Turnaround Tuesday drop, but the trade (or spec funds) ultimately had a different idea. Front month futures were up 2 to 4 cents in the front months by the close and 15 cents off of the low. Soybean meal came to the rescue later in the session with Dec up $4.60/ton. Bean oil was down 26 points. The market will be open for the full day of trading today, but closed on Thursday for both day and evening sessions, and will close early on Friday. USDA weekly export sales data will be delayed until Friday.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Rise With Boxed Beef Demand

Live cattle futures posted another round of triple digit gains on Tuesday, with Dec up $1.35. Feeder cattle futures mirrored the gains, up $1.30 in January. The 11/19 CME Feeder Cattle Index was $137.12, up 18 cents from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher again on Tuesday afternoon. Choice was up $2.70 at $244.30/cwt, with Select up $2.23 to $219.71/cwt. Despite the short week, not much cash action has taken place yet. The Fed Cattle Exchange has a total of 782 head listed for this morning’s sale. USDA estimates Tuesday’s FI cattle slaughter at 122,000 head, up 1,000 from a week ago and well above last year. The week to date (WTD) is 242,000 head, up 2,000 head from last week. 

 

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management 

Corn Lower Going Into Holiday Break

Corn futures are trading UNCH to 2 cents lower this morning. They came back from being down 10 cents on Tuesday to settle with fractional losses in the front months. Profit taking ahead of the holiday was the theme, with preliminary open interest dropping 23,372 contracts on the day. Deferred contracts were higher. Double digit gains in wheat were supportive. Wednesday’s EIA report is expected to show a slight uptick in both ethanol production and stocks. Turkey purchased at least 350,000 MT of corn in a tender on Tuesday. Chinese Customs import data showed 1.14 MMT of corn was imported in October, well above last year. That brought the YTD total to 7.82 MMT, up 97.3% from a year ago and above their official TRQ of 7.2 MMT. Sorghum imports have totaled 4.02 MMT this year, nearly 4.5 times larger than in 2019.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Trades Both Sides of UNCH

Wheat futures are fractionally mixed this morning, with KC HRW leaning lower. They posted double digit gains in the winter wheat contracts on Tuesday, with MPLS up 8 to 8 ¾ cents on the day. In an international tender, South Korea is looking for 80,600 MT of US wheat with the deadline on Wednesday. Monday’s NASS Crop Progress report showed a sharp 6 point drop in US winter wheat ratings on the Brugler500 index to 322. The brunt of the hit came in the HRW states, as CO fell 26 points, with TX down 13 and OK 10 points lower. Kansas ratings were down 8 points on the week as rains have been insufficient to break the ongoing drought in the Plains states.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management 

Hogs Mostly Higher, Handicapped by Cash Weakness

Lean hog futures closed the Tuesday session higher, with the exception of the Feb contract.  December Pork Cutout futures were down 55 cents despite the low Cold Storage number. The CME Lean Hog Index for Nov 20 was down another 31 cents at $67.83. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was down 45 cents at $57.87 in the afternoon report. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was back down 19 cents in the PM release to $77.58. USDA FI hog slaughter for Tuesday was again 497,000 head. The WTD total is 994,000, 24,000 more than last week and 11,000 larger than the same week in 2019. Chinese data shows 330,000 MT of pork imported during October, 80.4% above last year. The 2020 total is 3.62 MMT, up 126.2% from a year ago with two months remaining.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management 

Cotton FLirting With UNCH This Morning

Cotton futures are hovering a point or two on either side of UNCH this morning. They retreated 75 to 118 points on Turnaround Tuesday. Traders were taking some money off the table following Monday’s 18 month high and ahead of Thursday’s holiday. A swath of precip from the 7 day QPF shows much of Eastern TX to the East Coast getting hit, though harvest progressing faster than expected pressured the market on Tuesday. The Seam had another large 34,261 bales traded on Monday at an average price of 70.47 cents, up 79 points from the previous day. The Cotlook A index was up 130 points to 79.20 cents/lb as of November 23. The AWP for cotton is 56.84 cents/lb. through Thursday.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management 

Cattle Closes Higher, Helped by the Cutout

Live cattle futures posted another round of triple digit gains on Tuesday, with Dec up $1.35. Feeder cattle futures mirrored the gains, up $1.30 in January. The 11/19 CME Feeder Cattle Index was $137.12, up 18 cents from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher again on Tuesday afternoon. Choice was up $2.70 at $244.30/cwt, with Select up $2.23 to $219.71/cwt. Despite the short week, not much cash action has taken place yet this week. The Fed Cattle Exchange has a total of 782 head listed for Wednesday morning’s sale. USDA estimates Tuesday’s FI cattle slaughter at 122,000 head, up 1,000 from a week ago and well above last year. WTD is 242,000 head, up 2,000 head from last week. 

DEC 20 Cattle closed at $111.350, up $1.350,
FEB 21 Cattle closed at $114.175, up $1.275,
APR 21 Cattle closed at $117.400, up $0.850,
JAN 21 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.125, up $1.300
MAR 21 Feeder Cattle closed at $138.625, up $1.350
APR 21 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.750, up $0.775

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management 

Cotton Closes off the Lows

Cotton futures slipped 75 to 118 points on the day, with most front months more than 100 points off their lows. Traders were some money off the table following Monday’s 18 month high and ahead of Thursday’s holiday. With Monday first Notice day for Dec Futures, there were 78 notices put out, including 50 from a merchant. Stoppers were SG Americas and Marex clients. A swath of precip from the 7 day QPF shows much of Eastern TX to the East Coast getting hit, though harvest progressing faster than expected via the Crop Progress report pressured the market on Tuesday. The Seam had another large 34,261 bales traded on Monday at an average price of 70.47 cents, up 79 points from the previous day. The Cotlook A index was up 130 points to 79.20 cents/lb as of November 23. The AWP for cotton is 56.84 cents/lb. through Thursday.

DEC 20 Cotton closed at 70.97, down 118 points,
MAR 21 Cotton closed at 72.98, down 82 points
MAY 21 Cotton closed at 73.79, down 86 points
JUL 21 Cotton closed at 74.49, down 75 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management 

Corn Comes Back to Close Fractionally Lower

Corn futures came back from being down 10 cents overnight to settle with fractional losses in the front months. Profit taking was likely to blame with the upcoming holiday. Deferred contracts were higher. Double digit gains in wheat were supportive. Wednesday’s EIA report is expected to show a slight uptick in both ethanol production and stocks. Turkey purchased at least 350,000 MT of corn in a tender on Tuesday. Chinese Customs import data showed 1.14 MMT of corn was imported in October, well above last year. That brought the YTD total to 7.82 MMT, up 97.3% from a year ago and above their official TRQ of 7.2 MMT. Sorghum imports have totaled 4.02 MMT this year, nearly 4.5 times larger than in 2019.

DEC 20 Corn closed at $4.25 3/4, down 3/4 cent,
MAR 21 Corn closed at $4.32 1/2, down 3/4 cent,
MAY 21 Corn closed at $4.35 1/2, down 1 cent
JUL 21 Corn closed at $4.36 1/2, up 1/4 cent

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Beans Close Higher on Intraday Turnaround

Soybeans futures were gearing up for a Turnaround Tuesday drop, but the trade (or spec funds) ultimately had a different idea. Front month futures were up 2 to 4 cents in the front months on the day. Soybean meal came to the rescue later in the session with Dec up $4.60/ton. Bean oil was down 26 points at the close. Wednesday will be the last full day of trading for the week, as the market is closed on Thursday for both day and evening sessions, and will close early on Friday.

JAN 21 Soybeans closed at $11.94, up 2 1/2 cents,
MAR 21 Soybeans closed at $11.96, up 3 1/2 cents,
MAY 21 Soybeans closed at $11.94 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents,
JUL 21 Soybeans closed at $11.90 1/4, up 4 cents,
DEC 20 Soybean Meal closed at $399.50, up $4.60,
DEC 20 Soybean Oil closed at $38.29, down $0.26

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Bounces for Double Digit Gains

Wheat futures posted double digit gains in the winter wheat contracts on Tuesday, with MPLS up 8 to 8 ¾ cents on the day. In an international tender, South Korea is looking for 80,600 MT of US wheat with the deadline on Wednesday. Monday’s NASS Crop Progress report showed a sharp 6 point drop in US winter wheat ratings on the Brugler500 index to 322. The brunt of the hit came in the HRW states, as CO fell 26 points, with TX down 13 and OK 10 points lower. Kansas ratings were down 8 points on the week.

DEC 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.11, up 12 1/4 cents,
DEC 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.61 1/2, up 10 1/4 cents,
DEC 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.50 3/4, up 8 1/4 cents

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management 

Hogs Mixed at Tuesday’s Close

Lean hog futures closed the Tuesday session with nearby contacts mixed, as Dec was up 52 cents. December Pork Cutout futures were down 55 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index for Nov 20 was down another 31 cents at $67.83. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was down 45 cents at $57.87 in the afternoon report. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was back down 19 cents in the PM release to $77.58. USDA FI hog slaughter for Tuesday was again 497,000 head. The WTD total is 994,000, 24,000 more than last week and 11,000 larger than the same week in 2019. Chinese data shows 330,000 MT of pork imported during October, 80.4% above last year. That brings the calendar year total to 3.62 MMT, up 126.2% from a year ago.

DEC 20 Hogs closed at $65.475, up $0.525,
FEB 21 Hogs closed at $66.825, down $0.300
APR 21 Hogs closed at $70.300, up $0.100
DEC 20 Pork Cutout closed at $80.350, down $0.550,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management 

Cotton Retreating Triple Digits on Tuesday

Cotton futures are down 116 to 126 points at midday, taking some money off the table following Monday’s 18 month high. With Monday first Notice day for Dec Futures, there were 78 notices put out, including 50 from a merchant. Stoppers were SG Americas and Marex clients. A swath of precip from the 7 day QPF shows much of Eastern TX to the East Coast getting hit, though harvest progressing faster than expected is dampening the market at midday. USDA’s Crop Progress report indicated that cotton harvest was 77% complete as of Sunday, up 8% on the week and 6% faster than the 5-year average. Harvest was 14% faster than normal in TX at 74% complete. The Seam had another large 34,261 bales traded on Monday at an average price of 70.47 cents, up 79 points from the previous day. The Cotlook A index was up 130 points to 79.20 cents/lb as of November 23. The AWP for cotton is 56.84 cents/lb. through Thursday.

DEC 20 Cotton is at 70.89, down 126 points,
MAR 21 Cotton is at 72.64, down 116 points
MAY 21 Cotton is at 73.48, down 117 points
JUL 21 Cotton is at 74.08, down 116 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management 

Hogs Mixed Following Cold Storage Report

Lean hog futures are mixed on Tuesday, with the front months 20 to 60 cents lower and April up 12 cents. December Pork Cutout futures are $1.10. The CME Lean Hog Index for Nov 20 was down another 31 cents at $67.83. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was down 39 cents at $57.93 in the AM report. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was up 4 cents in the morning report. The monthly Cold Storage report found Oct 31 pork stocks were 448.157 million lbs. That is the lowest for any month since Aug 2011 and down 26.76% from year ago. USDA FI hog slaughter for Monday was 497,000 head, 20,000 more than last week and 4,000 larger than the same week in 2019. Chinese import data shows 330,000 MT of pork imported during October, 80.4% above last year. That brings the calendar year total to 3.62 MMT, up 126.2% from a year ago.

DEC 20 Hogs are at $64.750, down $0.200,
FEB 21 Hogs are at $66.525, down $0.600
APR 21 Hogs are at $70.325, up $0.125
DEC 20 Pork Cutout is at $79.800, down $1.100,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management 

Wheat Bounces from Overnight Lows on Poor Condition Ratings

Wheat futures are 5 to 8 ½ cents higher across the three exchanges at midday. Day traders are ignoring the lower action in the less active overnight session. In an international tender, South Korea is looking for 80,600 MT of US wheat with the deadline on Wednesday. Following Monday’s close, NASS reported that 89% of the US winter wheat crop was emerged as of 11/22, 1% faster than the 5-year average. Condition ratings were worse than estimates coming in at 43% gd/ex, down 3% from last week. That correlates to 322 on the Brugler500 index, down 6 on the week and 23 points lower than last year at this time. The brunt of the hit came in the HRW states, as CO fell 26 points, with TX down 13 and OK 10 points lower. Kansas ratings were down 8 points on the week.

DEC 20 CBOT Wheat is at $6.07 1/4, up 8 1/2 cents,
DEC 20 KCBT Wheat is at $5.59 3/4, up 8 1/2 cents,
DEC 20 MGEX Wheat is at $5.47 1/2, up 5 cents

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management 

Corn Bouncing from Lows, on Turnaround Tuesday

Corn futures are down 1 to 2 ¾ cents in the front months on Tuesday, with Dec 21 unch. Following two days of gains and matching or making contract highs in several contracts, traders are taking a little money off the table on Turnaround Tuesday. Turkey purchased at least 350,000 MT of corn in a tender on Tuesday. Chinese Customs import data showed 1.14 MMT of corn was imported in October, well above last year. That brought the YTD total to 7.82 MMT, up 97.3% from a year ago and above their official TRQ of 7.2 MMT. Sorghum imports have totaled 4.02 MMT this year, nearly 4.5 times larger than in 2019.

DEC 20 Corn is at $4.24, down 2 1/2 cents,
MAR 21 Corn is at $4.30 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents,
MAY 21 Corn is at $4.33 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents
JUL 21 Corn is at $4.34 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Beans Retreating on Tuesday

Soybeans futures are trading mostly lower in the nearby contracts at midday, bobbing off overnight lows. After failing to breach the mental $12 resistance on Monday, Jan beans are down 5 ½ cents at midday. They are not getting much help from the product values as soybean meal is up just 60 cents, with bean oil down 49 points. Traders are taking some profits from the months’ long rally ahead of the holiday. Wednesday will be the last full day of trading, as the market is closed on Thursday and will close early on Friday.

JAN 20 Soybeans are at $11.86, down 5 1/2 cents,
MAR 21 Soybeans are at $11.87 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents,
MAY 21 Soybeans are at $11.86 1/4, down 4 3/4 cents,
JUL 21 Soybeans are at $11.81 1/4, down 5 cents,
DEC 20 Soybean Meal is at $395.50, up $0.60,
DEC 20 Soybean Oil is at $38.06, down $0.49

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Shrug Off Cold Storage Report

Live cattle futures are up $1.17 to $1.62 at midday. Feeder cattle futures are also higher, with nearby Jan up $1.27. Monday afternoon’s Cold Storage report showed Oct 31 beef stocks at 500.473 million lbs, up 7.34% from a year ago and 8.09% above September. The 11/19 CME Feeder Cattle Index was $136.94, up 14 cents from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Tuesday morning. Choice was up $2.69 at $244.29/cwt, with Select up $2.01 to $219.49/cwt. Despite the short week, not much cash action has taken place yet this week. The Fed Cattle Exchange has a total of 782 head listed for Wednesday morning’s sale. USDA estimates Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 120,000 head, up 1,000 from a week ago and even with last year. 

DEC 20 Cattle are at $111.525, up $1.525,
FEB 21 Cattle are at $114.525, up $1.625,
APR 21 Cattle are at $117.725, up $1.175,
JAN 20 Feeder Cattle are at $139.100, up $1.275
MAR 21 Feeder Cattle are at $138.650, up $1.375
APR 21 Feeder Cattle are at $139.825, up $0.850

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management 

Soybeans Erase Monday Gains Overnight

Soybeans futures are 8 to 13 cents lower following overnight profit taking selling. They posted a double digit rally on Monday, with front months 11 to 12 1/2 cents higher. Jan beans hit $12 on Sunday night but backed off in the day session. Ongoing dryness in Brazil during early vegetative growth is the concern. Product values are also driving the market, with competitor canola futures sitting the highest since 2013. Soybean meal was $0.60/ton higher on the day. Bean oil retreated from earlier gains, down 9 points on Monday after hitting a more than 6-year high last week on the front month continuation chart. They have also been getting some help from an 8-year high in Malaysian palm oil.  The USDA Export Inspections report showed another solid week for shipments @ 2.01 MMT. That was a 7-week low and down 18.52% from last week’s number (revised higher). It was 2.95% larger than the same week last year, which was the MY high. The 24.42 MMT (897.21 mbu) shipped MYTD is the largest on record for this week. AgRural estimates the 20/21 Brazilian soybean crop to be 81% planted vs 79% at the same time last year.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs Higher Monday, USDA Shows Very Tight Cooler Inventory

Lean hog futures were $1.07 to $2.07 higher in the nearby contracts on Monday. December Pork Cutout futures were up $1.55. The CME Lean Hog Index for Nov 19 was down another 63 cents at $68.14. The CME Fresh Bacon index was down $14.28 to $126.49 as of 11/20. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was down 50 cents at $58.33 in the PM report. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was down 40 cents. The ham saw a $5.62 drop as wholesale buying ahead of Thanksgiving slows. The monthly Cold Storage report found Oct 31 pork stocks were 448.157 million lbs. That is the lowest for any month since Aug 2011 and down 26.76% from year ago. Multiple primal cuts saw multi-year supply lows for October. USDA FI hog slaughter for Monday was 497,000 head, 20,000 more than last week and 4,000 larger than the same week in 2019.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management 

Corn Lower on Turnaround Tuesday Fade Attempt

Corn futures are trading 3 to 6 cents lower in a little Turnaround Tuesday action this morning. They closed the Monday session with 3 1/2 cent gains in nearby Dec, with other front months up 5 ¼ to 5 3/4 cents. A private export sale of 334,000 MT of 20/21 corn to unknown destinations was reported by the USDA mandatory reporting system on Monday. USDA’s weekly Export Inspections report put corn shipments for the week ending 11/19 at 832,637 MT. That was slightly below last week but 34.97% larger yr/yr. Exports since September 1 are 9.25 MMT (364.2 mbu), 64.82% larger than the same period last year. Sorghum inspections were 121,096 MT in that week, all to China. YTD US exports are 1.096 MMT, more than double the same time in 2019. Brazil’s first crop corn in the Center-South region is now pegged as 91% planted according to AgRural, 9% faster than the same week in 2019.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Gives Back Monday Gains Overnight

Cotton futures are 90 to 113 points lower this morning, giving back 79 to 112 point gains from Monday. Front month futures hit an 18-month high of 72.70 early yesterday. Monday was first notice day for December cotton futures. There were 78 notices put out, including 50 from a merchant. Stoppers were SG Americas and Marex clients. USDA’s Crop Progress report indicated that cotton harvest was 77% complete as of Sunday, up 8% on the week and 6% faster than the 5-year average. Harvest was 14% faster than normal in TX at 74% complete. The Seam had a large 27,429 bales traded on Friday at an average price of 69.68 cents. The Cotlook A index was down 25 points to 77.90 cents/lb as of November 20. The AWP for cotton is 56.84 cents/lb. through Thursday.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management 

Wheat Lower Despite Crop Deterioration

Wheat futures are trading 1 to 3 cents lower this morning. They saw gains in the winter wheat markets on Monday, with MPLS steady to 1 1/2 cents lower in the front months. CBT was the strongest, up 3 to 6 1/4 cents. Nearby KC wheat is at an 8 3/4 cent premium to front month MPLS, the largest for that spread since Dec 2014. After the close, NASS reported that 89% of the US winter wheat crop was emerged as of 11/22, 1% faster than the 5-year average. Condition ratings were worse than estimates coming in at 43% gd/ex, down 3% from last week. That correlates to 322 on the Brugler500 index, down 6 on the week and 23 points lower than last year at this time. All wheat export shipments during the week of November 19 totaled 358,077 MT according to USDA’s Export Inspections report. That was a jump of 7.1% from the week prior but down 17.71% from the same week in 2019. Accumulated inspections are now 12.396 MMT (445.5 mbu) nearly half-way through the MY, just 0.34% above last year. USDA’s full year WASDE projection is 975 mbu, up 10 yr/yr.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management 

Cattle Must Deal With Buildup in Beef Stocks

Live cattle futures rallied $2.07 to $2.45 in the front months on Monday, on reaction to Friday’s Cattle on Feed report. Feeder cattle futures also shot up another $2.42 to $3.45. The 11/19 CME Feeder Cattle Index was $136.94, up 14 cents from the previous day. Friday’s CoF report showed 11.973 million head of cattle were on feed on 11/1. The largest surprise came via placements, down 11% from last year and the third lowest for Oct all-time. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Monday afternoon. Choice was up $3.25 at $241.60/cwt, with Select up $2.50 to $217.48/cwt. That widened the Chc/Sel spread to $24.12. There are a few light starter bids for the short week at $110, though not much action has taken place. Monday afternoon’s Cold Storage report showed Oct 31 beef stocks at 500.473 million lbs, up 7.34% from a year ago and 8.09% above September. USDA estimates Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 120,000 head, up 1,000 from a week ago and even with last year. 

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management 

Hogs Post Triple Digit Gains on Monday

Lean hog futures were $1.07 to $2.07 higher in the nearby contracts on Monday. December Pork Cutout futures were up $1.55 The CME Lean Hog Index for Nov 19 was down another 63 cents at $68.14. The Fresh Bacon index was down $14.28 to $126.49 as of 11/20. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was down 50 cents at $58.33 in the PM report. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was down 40 cents on Monday afternoon. The ham saw a $5.62 drop as wholesale buying ahead of Thanksgiving slows. The monthly Cold Storage report tallied 10/31 pork stocks at 448.157 million lbs. That is the lowest for any month since Aug 2011 and down from a year ago by 26.76%. Multiple primal cuts saw multi-year lows for October. USDA FI hog slaughter for Monday was 497,000 head, 20,000 more than last week and 4,000 larger than the same week in 2019.

DEC 20 Hogs closed at $65.200, up $1.075,
FEB 21 Hogs closed at $67.225, up $1.875
APR 21 Hogs closed at $70.300, up $2.075
DEC 20 Pork Cutout closed at $80.850, up $1.550,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management 

Corn Settles Higher on Monday

Corn futures closed the Monday session with 3 1/2 cent gains in nearby Dec, with other front months up 5 ¼ to 5 3/4 cents. A private export sale of 334,000 MT of 20/21 corn to unknown destinations was reported by the USDA mandatory reporting system this AM. USDA’s weekly Export Inspections report tallied corn shipments for the week that ended on 11/19 at 832,637 MT. That was slightly below last week but 34.97% larger yr/yr. Exports since September 1 are 9.25 MMT (364.2 mbu), 64.82% larger than the same period last year. Sorghum inspections were 121,096 MT in that week, all to China. YTD US exports are 1.096 MMT, more than double the same time in 2019. Brazil’s first crop corn in the Center-South region is now pegged as 91% planted according to AgRural, 9% faster than the same week in 2019.

DEC 20 Corn closed at $4.26 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents,
MAR 21 Corn closed at $4.33 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents,
MAY 21 Corn closed at $4.36 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents
JUL 21 Corn closed at $4.36 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Closes Mixed on Monday

Wheat futures saw gains in the winter wheat markets on Monday, with MPLS steady to 1 1/2 cents lower in the front months. CBT was the strongest, up 3 to 6 1/4 cents. Nearby KC wheat is at an 8 3/4 cent premium to front month MPLS, the largest that has been since Dec 2014. After the close, NASS reported that 89% of the US winter wheat crop was emerged as of 11/22, 1% faster than the 5-year average. Conditions were tallied worse than estimates coming in at 43% gd/ex, down 3% from last week. That correlates to 322 on the Brugler500 index, down 6 on the week and 23 points lower yr/yr. All wheat export shipments during the week of November 19 were tallied at 358,077 MT according to USDA’s Export Inspections report. That was a jump of 7.1% from the week prior but down 17.71% from the same week in 2019. Accumulated inspections are now 12.396 MMT (445.5 mbu) nearly half-way through the MY, just 0.34% above last year. USDA’s full year WASDE projection is 975 mbu, up 10 yr/yr.

DEC 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.99 1/2, up 6 1/4 cents,
DEC 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.51 1/4, up 1 cent,
DEC 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.42 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management 

Cattle Rally Triple Digits with Help from CoF report

Live cattle futures rallied $2.07 to $2.45 in the front months on Monday, on reaction to Friday’s Cattle on Feed report. Feeder cattle futures also shot up another $2.42 to $3.45. The 11/19 CME Feeder Cattle Index was $136.94, up 14 cents from the previous day. Friday’s CoF report showed 11.973 million head of cattle were on feed on 11/1. The largest surprise came via placements, down 11% from last year and the third lowest for Oct all-time. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Monday afternoon. Choice was up $3.25 at $241.60/cwt, with Select up $2.50 to $217.48/cwt. That widened the Chc/Sel spread to $24.12. There are a few light starter bids for the short week at $110, though not much action has taken place. Monday afternoon’s Cold Storage report showed Oct 31 beef stocks at 500.473 million lbs, up 7.34% from a year ago and 8.09% above September. USDA estimates Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 120,000 head, up 1,000 from a week ago and even with last year. 

DEC 20 Cattle closed at $110.175, up $2.075,
FEB 21 Cattle closed at $113.100, up $2.450,
APR 21 Cattle closed at $116.825, up $2.375,
JAN 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $138.050, up $3.450
MAR 21 Feeder Cattle closed at $137.500, up $3.125
APR 21 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.075, up $2.900

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management