News Source: BRUG

Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures ended the Turnaround Tuesday session with most contracts 3 to 4 3/4 cents higher. Lower than expected crop condition ratings encouraged some light buying. USDA Secretary Perdue stated on Tuesday that this year’s MFP payment will have a minimum payment of $15/acre, with the initial county rates and guidelines released later this week. The drop in corn condition ratings was due to heat stress in a number of states during the reporting period, as IN and SD were 5 points lower, with MN and OH down 6. Ratings improved in IA (+4), NE and MO (+3), and IL (+1),

SEP 19 Corn is at $4.25 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 Corn is at $4.31 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents,

MAR 20 Corn is at $4.40 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents,

MAY 20 Corn is at $4.44 1/4, up 4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures closed with 2 to 2 1/2 cent losses in the front months on Tuesday. August soybean meal was down $2/ton, with soy oil 28 points higher. The 5-day QPF shows dry weather for most of the Midwest over the next several days. The 6-10 day outlook indicates above normal chances for precip in most of the Corn Belt, up into the Dakotas. Monday afternoon’s NASS report indicated that none of the 18 reported states were above normal progress for either stage. For conditions by state, the most notable jump was for IL (+10), with IA (+1) and NE (+4) both higher as well. Ratings in IN (-4), ND and OH (-7), and SD (-6) were all lower. More information about this year’s MFP payment will be released this week according to a statement from USDA secretary Perdue.

AUG 19 Soybeans are at $8.85 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans are at $8.91 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.03 3/4, down 2 cents,

JAN 20 Soybeans are at $9.16 1/2, down 2 cents,

AUG 19 Soybean Meal is at $306.40, down $2.00,

AUG 19 Soybean Oil is at $28.01, up 28 points,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures closed Tuesday with most contracts firm to 3 cents higher, as MPLS was fractionally lower in nearby Sep. Initial reports from the Spring Wheat Quality Tour show above normal yields, with day one results expected out later tonight. NASS showed spring wheat ratings in ID (+11) and ND (+3) as the only states to show improvement from last week. Taiwan purchased 90,650 MT of US wheat in their tender. Japan is tendering for 114,242 MT of wheat in their weekly MOA tender, all US origin. Results are expected Thursday. Egypt purchased 300,000 MT in their recent GASC tender, with the origins split between Ukraine (120,000 MT), Romania (120,000 MT) and Russia (60,000 MT). The US was not price competitive.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.87 1/4, unch,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.31 1/2, up 2 1/4,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.20 1/2, down 3/4,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures were up 45 to 72.5 cents in the front months on Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures posted gains of just a tick in the nearby contracts. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.24 cents @ $136.94 on July 22. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 46 cents per cwt at $213.78, with Select boxes 12 cents higher @ $189.71. USDA estimated this week’s FI cattle slaughter at 236,000 head through Tuesday, which is 2,000 head below last week and 7,000 above the same week last year.

AUG 19 Cattle are at $109.050, up $0.60,

OCT 19 Cattle are at $109.875, up $0.725,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $114.250, up $0.45,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.200, up $0.025,

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.450, up $0.025,

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.675, up $0.025,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures saw triple digit gains in the front months, with Aug closing a nickel off limit up. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 87 cents from the previous day on July 19 @ $73.27. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was just a penny on Tuesday afternoon at $80.60. The national average base hog value was up $2.71 on Tuesday at $78.80. Estimated weekly FI hog slaughter was 948,000 head through Tuesday. That was up 63,000 head from the previous week and 64,000 head above the same week last year. Chinese pork imports during June were up 62.8% from the same month last year.

AUG 19 Hogs are at $86.175, up $2.95,

OCT 19 Hogs are at $81.800, up $2.60,

DEC 19 Hogs are at $79.675, up $2.65,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures settled with 17 to 38 point gains in most contracts on Tuesday. The 6-10 day forecast shows lower chances for precip in most of TX, with above normal temps seen. The weekly Crop Progress report from NASS showed that TS Barry helped more acres than it hurt, as LA (+3) and TX (+15) both improved. AZ was down 21 points, with MS 4 points lower. The Cotlook A index for July 22 was up 125 points from the previous day at 74.20 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 55.81 cents/lb effective through Thursday.

OCT 19 Cotton is at 62.96, up 17 points,

DEC 19 Cotton is at 63.74, up 38 points

MAR 20 Cotton is at 64.5, up 35 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 65.34, up 29 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybeans Close Lower on Tuesday

Soybean futures closed with 2 to 2 1/2 cent losses in the front months on Tuesday. August soybean meal was down $2/ton, with soy oil 28 points higher. The 5-day QPF shows dry weather for most of the Midwest over the next several days. The 6-10 day outlook indicates above normal chances for precip in most of the Corn Belt, up into the Dakotas. Monday afternoon’s NASS report indicated that none of the 18 reported states were above normal progress for either stage. For conditions by state, the most notable jump was for IL (+10), with IA (+1) and NE (+4) both higher as well. Ratings in IN (-4), ND and OH (-7), and SD (-6) were all lower. More information about this year’s MFP payment will be released this week according to a statement from USDA secretary Perdue.

AUG 19 Soybeans are at $8.85 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans are at $8.91 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.03 3/4, down 2 cents,

JAN 20 Soybeans are at $9.16 1/2, down 2 cents,

AUG 19 Soybean Meal is at $306.40, down $2.00,

AUG 19 Soybean Oil is at $28.01, up 28 points,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Mixed on Tuesday

Wheat futures closed Tuesday with most contracts firm to 3 cents higher, as MPLS was fractionally lower in nearby Sep. Initial reports from the Spring Wheat Quality Tour show above normal yields, with day one results expected out later tonight. NASS showed spring wheat ratings in ID (+11) and ND (+3) as the only states to show improvement from last week. Taiwan purchased 90,650 MT of US wheat in their tender. Japan is tendering for 114,242 MT of wheat in their weekly MOA tender, all US origin. Results are expected Thursday. Egypt purchased 300,000 MT in their recent GASC tender, with the origins split between Ukraine (120,000 MT), Romania (120,000 MT) and Russia (60,000 MT). The US was not price competitive.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.87 1/4, unch,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.31 1/2, up 2 1/4,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.20 1/2, down 3/4,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Mostly Higher on Tuesday

Live cattle futures were up 45 to 72.5 cents in the front months on Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures posted gains of just a tick in the nearby contracts. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.24 cents @ $136.94 on July 22. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 46 cents per cwt at $213.78, with Select boxes 12 cents higher @ $189.71. USDA estimated this week’s FI cattle slaughter at 236,000 head through Tuesday, which is 2,000 head below last week and 7,000 above the same week last year.

AUG 19 Cattle are at $109.050, up $0.60,

OCT 19 Cattle are at $109.875, up $0.725,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $114.250, up $0.45,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.200, up $0.025,

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.450, up $0.025,

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.675, up $0.025,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Corn Post Turnaround Tuesday Bounce

Corn futures ended the Turnaround Tuesday session with most contracts 3 to 4 3/4 cents higher. Lower than expected crop condition ratings encouraged some light buying. USDA Secretary Perdue stated on Tuesday that this year’s MFP payment will have a minimum payment of $15/acre, with the initial county rates and guidelines released later this week. The drop in corn condition ratings was due to heat stress in a number of states during the reporting period, as IN and SD were 5 points lower, with MN and OH down 6. Ratings improved in IA (+4), NE and MO (+3), and IL (+1),

SEP 19 Corn is at $4.25 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 Corn is at $4.31 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents,

MAR 20 Corn is at $4.40 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents,

MAY 20 Corn is at $4.44 1/4, up 4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs Post Strong Gains on Tuesday

Lean Hog futures saw triple digit gains in the front months, with Aug closing a nickel off limit up. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 87 cents from the previous day on July 19 @ $73.27. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was just a penny on Tuesday afternoon at $80.60. The national average base hog value was up $2.71 on Tuesday at $78.80. Estimated weekly FI hog slaughter was 948,000 head through Tuesday. That was up 63,000 head from the previous week and 64,000 head above the same week last year. Chinese pork imports during June were up 62.8% from the same month last year.

AUG 19 Hogs are at $86.175, up $2.95,

OCT 19 Hogs are at $81.800, up $2.60,

DEC 19 Hogs are at $79.675, up $2.65,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton End Higher on Tuesday

Cotton futures settled with 17 to 38 point gains in most contracts on Tuesday. The 6-10 day forecast shows lower chances for precip in most of TX, with above normal temps seen. The weekly Crop Progress report from NASS showed that TS Barry helped more acres than it hurt, as LA (+3) and TX (+15) both improved. AZ was down 21 points, with MS 4 points lower. The Cotlook A index for July 22 was up 125 points from the previous day at 74.20 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 55.81 cents/lb effective through Thursday.

OCT 19 Cotton is at 62.96, up 17 points,

DEC 19 Cotton is at 63.74, up 38 points

MAR 20 Cotton is at 64.5, up 35 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 65.34, up 29 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Corn Showing Turnaround Tuesday Bounce

Corn futures are trading 1 to 3 1/4 cents higher on Turnaround Tuesday. The drop in crop condition ratings last week suggested to some potential yield loss. We see the change as statistically insignificant. The weekly Crop Progress report showed 35% of the crop silking as of Sunday vs. the 66% average, with 5% in the dough stage (10% average). Corn conditions slipped 1% to 57% gd/ex and 2 points on the Brugler500 index to 351. This was due to heat stress in a number of states during the reporting period, as IN and SD were 5 points lower, with MN and OH down 6. Ratings improved in IA (+4), NE and MO (+3), and IL (+1),

SEP 19 Corn is at $4.23 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 Corn is at $4.30, up 3 1/4 cents,

MAR 20 Corn is at $4.38 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents

MAY 20 Corn is at $4.42 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs Nearing Limit Gains at Midday

Lean Hog futures are showing modest gains in the back months, with front months up $2.40 to a few ticks off limit higher. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 87 cents from the previous day on July 19 @ $73.27. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was back down $1.72 on Tuesday morning at $78.89. The often-volatile belly was down $10.50. The national average base hog value was up 94 cents on Tuesday at $77.03. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 473,000 head on Monday. That was up 63,000 head from the previous week and 49,000 head below the same week last year. Frozen pork stocks at the end of June were tallied at 622.367 million lbs. That was up 10.77% from last year but a drop of 1.05% from May. Belly stocks were up 5.98% from a year ago at 56.563 million lbs, but down 11.95% from May. Chinese pork imports during June were up 62.8% from the same month last year.

AUG 19 Hogs are at $86.150, up $2.925,

OCT 19 Hogs are at $81.600, up $2.400

DEC 19 Hogs are at $79.500, up $2.475

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live Cattle Higher, Feeders Lower

Live cattle futures are up 10 to 65 cents in most contracts at midday. Feeder cattle futures are steady to 25 cents lower. The monthly NASS Cold Storage report indicated another drop in frozen beef stocks to 394.525 million lbs on June 30. That was down 2.62% from May and 12.05% below a year ago to reach a 5-year low. That is the first time beef stocks have been under 400 million lbs since Oct 2014. The CME feeder cattle index was down 49 cents @ $138.16 on July 19. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Tuesday morning. Choice boxes were up 37 cents per cwt at $213.69, with Select boxes 44 cents higher @ $190.03. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 114,000 head, which is 3,000 head below last week and 4,000 above the same Monday last year.

AUG 19 Cattle are at $109.050, up $0.600,

OCT 19 Cattle are at $109.800, up $0.650,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $114.175, up $0.375,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle are at $141.950, down $0.225

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.175, down $0.250

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.400, down $0.250

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Lower on Improved Condition Ratings

Cotton futures are down 13 to 27 points in most contracts on Tuesday. The weekly Crop Progress report from NASS showed the 2019 US cotton crop at 78% squared (80% avg), as 33% was setting bolls (37% avg). Cotton conditions improved another 4% to 60% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 shifting 11 points higher to 358. TS Barry helped more acres than it hurt, as LA (+3) and TX (+15) both improved. AZ was down 21 points, with MS 4 points lower. The Cotlook A index for July 22 was up 125 points from the previous day at 74.20 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 55.81 cents/lb effective through Thursday.

OCT 19 Cotton is at 62.52, down 27 points,

DEC 19 Cotton is at 63.13, down 23 points

MAR 20 Cotton is at 64.02, down 13 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 64.87, down 18 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Mostly Higher at Midday

Wheat futures are up 1/4 to 3 cents in the front months on Tuesday. NASS rated the spring wheat crop at 76% good/ex condition, unch from the previous week with the Brugler500 up 3 points on a swing from good TO excellent. ID (+11) and ND (+3) were the only states to show improvement. The winter wheat harvest progressed 12% from the previous week to 69% complete but still lags the 79% average pace. Taiwan purchased 90,650 MT of US wheat in their tender. Japan is tendering for 114,242 MT of wheat in their weekly MOA tender, all US origin. Results are expected Thursday. Egypt purchased 300,000 MT in their recent GASC tender, with the origins split between Ukraine (120,000 MT), Romania (120,000 MT) and Russia (60,000 MT).

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.88, up 3/4 cent,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.31 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.21 1/2, up 1/4 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 1 to 3 1/4 cents higher on Turnaround Tuesday. The drop in crop condition ratings last week suggested to some potential yield loss. We see the change as statistically insignificant. The weekly Crop Progress report showed 35% of the crop silking as of Sunday vs. the 66% average, with 5% in the dough stage (10% average). Corn conditions slipped 1% to 57% gd/ex and 2 points on the Brugler500 index to 351. This was due to heat stress in a number of states during the reporting period, as IN and SD were 5 points lower, with MN and OH down 6. Ratings improved in IA (+4), NE and MO (+3), and IL (+1),

SEP 19 Corn is at $4.23 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 Corn is at $4.30, up 3 1/4 cents,

MAR 20 Corn is at $4.38 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents

MAY 20 Corn is at $4.42 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are showing fractional to 3 cent losses in most front months at midday. August soybean meal are down $1.70ton, with soy oil 27 points higher. The 5-day QPF shows dry weather for most of the Midwest over the next several days. The 6-10 day outlook indicates above normal chances for precip in most of the Corn Belt, up into the Dakotas. Monday afternoon’s NASS report indicated that 40% of the US soybean crop was blooming as of 7/21 (66% avg), with 7% setting pods (28% avg). Not a single one of the 18 reported states were above normal progress for either stage. As expected, conditions were unch at 54% gd/ex and 347 on the Brugler 500index. By state, the most notable jump was for IL (+10), with IA (+1) and NE (+4) both higher as well. Ratings in IN (-4), ND and OH (-7), and SD (-6) were all lower.

AUG 19 Soybeans are at $8.86 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans are at $8.92 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.05, down 3/4 cent,

JAN 20 Soybeans are at $9.17 3/4, down 3/4 cent,

AUG 19 Soybean Meal is at $306.70, down $1.70,

AUG 19 Soybean Oil is at $28.00, up $0.27

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are up 1/4 to 3 cents in the front months on Tuesday. NASS rated the spring wheat crop at 76% good/ex condition, unch from the previous week with the Brugler500 up 3 points on a swing from good TO excellent. ID (+11) and ND (+3) were the only states to show improvement. The winter wheat harvest progressed 12% from the previous week to 69% complete but still lags the 79% average pace. Taiwan purchased 90,650 MT of US wheat in their tender. Japan is tendering for 114,242 MT of wheat in their weekly MOA tender, all US origin. Results are expected Thursday. Egypt purchased 300,000 MT in their recent GASC tender, with the origins split between Ukraine (120,000 MT), Romania (120,000 MT) and Russia (60,000 MT).

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.88, up 3/4 cent,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.31 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.21 1/2, up 1/4 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures are up 10 to 65 cents in most contracts at midday. Feeder cattle futures are steady to 25 cents lower. The monthly NASS Cold Storage report indicated another drop in frozen beef stocks to 394.525 million lbs on June 30. That was down 2.62% from May and 12.05% below a year ago to reach a 5-year low. That is the first time beef stocks have been under 400 million lbs since Oct 2014. The CME feeder cattle index was down 49 cents @ $138.16 on July 19. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Tuesday morning. Choice boxes were up 37 cents per cwt at $213.69, with Select boxes 44 cents higher @ $190.03. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 114,000 head, which is 3,000 head below last week and 4,000 above the same Monday last year.

AUG 19 Cattle are at $109.050, up $0.600,

OCT 19 Cattle are at $109.800, up $0.650,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $114.175, up $0.375,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle are at $141.950, down $0.225

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.175, down $0.250

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.400, down $0.250

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures are showing modest gains in the back months, with front months up $2.40 to a few ticks off limit higher. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 87 cents from the previous day on July 19 @ $73.27. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was back down $1.72 on Tuesday morning at $78.89. The often-volatile belly was down $10.50. The national average base hog value was up 94 cents on Tuesday at $77.03. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 473,000 head on Monday. That was up 63,000 head from the previous week and 49,000 head below the same week last year. Frozen pork stocks at the end of June were tallied at 622.367 million lbs. That was up 10.77% from last year but a drop of 1.05% from May. Belly stocks were up 5.98% from a year ago at 56.563 million lbs, but down 11.95% from May. Chinese pork imports during June were up 62.8% from the same month last year.

AUG 19 Hogs are at $86.150, up $2.925,

OCT 19 Hogs are at $81.600, up $2.400

DEC 19 Hogs are at $79.500, up $2.475

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are down 13 to 27 points in most contracts on Tuesday. The weekly Crop Progress report from NASS showed the 2019 US cotton crop at 78% squared (80% avg), as 33% was setting bolls (37% avg). Cotton conditions improved another 4% to 60% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 shifting 11 points higher to 358. TS Barry helped more acres than it hurt, as LA (+3) and TX (+15) both improved. AZ was down 21 points, with MS 4 points lower. The Cotlook A index for July 22 was up 125 points from the previous day at 74.20 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 55.81 cents/lb effective through Thursday.

OCT 19 Cotton is at 62.52, down 27 points,

DEC 19 Cotton is at 63.13, down 23 points

MAR 20 Cotton is at 64.02, down 13 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 64.87, down 18 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybeans Slightly Lower on Tuesday

Soybean futures are showing fractional to 3 cent losses in most front months at midday. August soybean meal are down $1.70ton, with soy oil 27 points higher. The 5-day QPF shows dry weather for most of the Midwest over the next several days. The 6-10 day outlook indicates above normal chances for precip in most of the Corn Belt, up into the Dakotas. Monday afternoon’s NASS report indicated that 40% of the US soybean crop was blooming as of 7/21 (66% avg), with 7% setting pods (28% avg). Not a single one of the 18 reported states were above normal progress for either stage. As expected, conditions were unch at 54% gd/ex and 347 on the Brugler 500index. By state, the most notable jump was for IL (+10), with IA (+1) and NE (+4) both higher as well. Ratings in IN (-4), ND and OH (-7), and SD (-6) were all lower.

AUG 19 Soybeans are at $8.86 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans are at $8.92 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.05, down 3/4 cent,

JAN 20 Soybeans are at $9.17 3/4, down 3/4 cent,

AUG 19 Soybean Meal is at $306.70, down $1.70,

AUG 19 Soybean Oil is at $28.00, up $0.27

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Market Mostly 2 Cents Higher

Soybean futures are mostly 2 cents per bushel higher this morning. They closed Monday with most nearby contracts 13 to 13 1/2 cents lower. August soybean meal was down $2.80/ton, with soy oil 37 points lower. Cooler forecasts and no confirmation of rumored Chinese purchases caused some selling pressure. Monday afternoon’s NASS report indicated that 40% of the US soybean crop was blooming as of 7/21 (66% avg), with 7% setting pods (28% avg). As expected, conditions were unch at 54% gd/ex and 347 on the Brugler 500index. USDA reported 559,462 MT of soybeans inspected for export during the week that ended on July 18. That was 34.6% below the week prior and down 23.17% from this week in 2018. Of that total, 317,456 MT was headed to China.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Markets All 3 to 4 To the Plus Side

Wheat futures are 3 to 4 cents higher in all three markets this morning after being down 8 to 15 1/4 cents in most contracts on Monday. All wheat exports for the week that ended on 7/18 were tallied at 433,117 MT via USDA’s Export Inspections report. That was a 24.27% jump from the previous week and slightly higher than that week in 2018. The spring wheat quality tour is being held this week, which should contribute to our understanding of the MPLS HRS crop. NASS reported the spring wheat crop at 76% good/ex condition, unch from the previous week with the Brugler500 up 3 points on a swing from good TO excellent. The crop was reported at 92% headed vs. the 94% average. The winter wheat harvest progressed 12% from the previous week to 69% complete but still lags the 79% average pace. Egypt is tendering for wheat, with results expected on Tuesday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Supported By Rising Cash Values

Lean Hog futures were firm to 40 cents higher in most contracts on Monday. August was down 65 cents, marking time as it is showing a $10 premium to the Index. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 88 cents from the previous day on July 18 @ $72.40. The newly updated CME Fresh Bacon Index was up $5.81 wk/wk at $137.89/cwt. The USDA pork carcass cutout value rose $2.08 at $80.61 on Monday afternoon. The national average base hog value was up $3.78 on Monday at $76.02. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 473,000 head on Monday. That was up 63,000 head from the previous week and 49,000 head below the same week last year. Frozen pork stocks at the end of June were tallied at 622.367 million lbs. That was up 10.77% from last year but a drop of 1.05% from May. Belly stocks were up 5.98% from a year ago at 56.563 million lbs, but down 11.95% from May.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 2 to 3 cents higher on Turnaround Tuesday. They ended the Monday session with most contracts lower by 7 to 9 cents per bushel. The drop in crop condition ratings last week suggested to some potential yield loss. We see the change as statistically insignificant. The weekly Crop Progress report showed 35% of the crop silking as of Sunday vs. the 66% average, with 5% in the dough stage (10% average). Corn conditions slipped 1% to 57% gd/ex and 2 points on the Brugler500 index to 351. This was due to heat stress in a number of states during the reporting period. The Export Inspections report from USDA showed corn shipments of just 438,045 MT in the week that ended on July 18. That was a 36.56% drop from last week and less than 1/3 of the same week last year. AgRural estimates the Brazilian second corn crop is 67% harvested, which is well above the 36% from this week last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are mostly 2 cents per bushel higher this morning. They closed Monday with most nearby contracts 13 to 13 1/2 cents lower. August soybean meal was down $2.80/ton, with soy oil 37 points lower. Cooler forecasts and no confirmation of rumored Chinese purchases caused some selling pressure. Monday afternoon’s NASS report indicated that 40% of the US soybean crop was blooming as of 7/21 (66% avg), with 7% setting pods (28% avg). As expected, conditions were unch at 54% gd/ex and 347 on the Brugler 500index. USDA reported 559,462 MT of soybeans inspected for export during the week that ended on July 18. That was 34.6% below the week prior and down 23.17% from this week in 2018. Of that total, 317,456 MT was headed to China.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are 3 to 4 cents higher in all three markets this morning after being down 8 to 15 1/4 cents in most contracts on Monday. All wheat exports for the week that ended on 7/18 were tallied at 433,117 MT via USDA’s Export Inspections report. That was a 24.27% jump from the previous week and slightly higher than that week in 2018. The spring wheat quality tour is being held this week, which should contribute to our understanding of the MPLS HRS crop. NASS reported the spring wheat crop at 76% good/ex condition, unch from the previous week with the Brugler500 up 3 points on a swing from good TO excellent. The crop was reported at 92% headed vs. the 94% average. The winter wheat harvest progressed 12% from the previous week to 69% complete but still lags the 79% average pace. Egypt is tendering for wheat, with results expected on Tuesday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures saw 65 to 85 cent gains in the front months on Monday, following Friday’s USDA reports. Feeder cattle futures received some additional help from weaker corn, with the front months $2.20 to $2.625 higher. The monthly NASS Cold Storage report indicated another drop in frozen beef stocks to 394.525 million lbs on June 30. That was down 2.62% from May and 12.05% below a year ago to reach a 5-year low. That is the first time beef stocks have been under 400 million lbs since Oct 2014. The CME feeder cattle index was down 49 cents @ $138.16 on July 19. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Monday afternoon with Choice boxes down a dime per cwt at $213.32 and Select boxes 8 cents higher @ $189.59. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 114,000 head, which is 3,000 head below last week and 4,000 above the same Monday last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures were firm to 40 cents higher in most contracts on Monday. August was down 65 cents, marking time as it is showing a $10 premium to the Index. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 88 cents from the previous day on July 18 @ $72.40. The newly updated CME Fresh Bacon Index was up $5.81 wk/wk at $137.89/cwt. The USDA pork carcass cutout value rose $2.08 at $80.61 on Monday afternoon. The national average base hog value was up $3.78 on Monday at $76.02. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 473,000 head on Monday. That was up 63,000 head from the previous week and 49,000 head below the same week last year. Frozen pork stocks at the end of June were tallied at 622.367 million lbs. That was up 10.77% from last year but a drop of 1.05% from May. Belly stocks were up 5.98% from a year ago at 56.563 million lbs, but down 11.95% from May.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are trading 12 to 30 points higher to begin your Tuesday. They settled firm to 39 points higher in the front months on Monday. The weekly Crop Progress report from NASS showed the 2019 US cotton crop at 78% squared (80% avg), as 33% was setting bolls (37% avg). Cotton conditions improved another 4% to 60% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 shifting 11 points higher to 358. The 7-day QPF shows very little moisture for most of TX over the next week, with parts of the Southeast seeing a few showers. TS Barry helped more acres than it hurt. The Cotlook A index for July 18 was down 75 points from the previous day at 72.95 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 55.81 cents/lb effective through Thursday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cattle Market Sees 5 Year Low in Beef Inventory

Live cattle futures saw 65 to 85 cent gains in the front months on Monday, following Friday’s USDA reports. Feeder cattle futures received some additional help from weaker corn, with the front months $2.20 to $2.625 higher. The monthly NASS Cold Storage report indicated another drop in frozen beef stocks to 394.525 million lbs on June 30. That was down 2.62% from May and 12.05% below a year ago to reach a 5-year low. That is the first time beef stocks have been under 400 million lbs since Oct 2014. The CME feeder cattle index was down 49 cents @ $138.16 on July 19. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Monday afternoon with Choice boxes down a dime per cwt at $213.32 and Select boxes 8 cents higher @ $189.59. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 114,000 head, which is 3,000 head below last week and 4,000 above the same Monday last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Corn Market 2to 3 Cents Higher on Condition Decline

Corn futures are trading 2 to 3 cents higher on Turnaround Tuesday. They ended the Monday session with most contracts lower by 7 to 9 cents per bushel. The drop in crop condition ratings last week suggested to some potential yield loss. We see the change as statistically insignificant. The weekly Crop Progress report showed 35% of the crop silking as of Sunday vs. the 66% average, with 5% in the dough stage (10% average). Corn conditions slipped 1% to 57% gd/ex and 2 points on the Brugler500 index to 351. This was due to heat stress in a number of states during the reporting period. The Export Inspections report from USDA showed corn shipments of just 438,045 MT in the week that ended on July 18. That was a 36.56% drop from last week and less than 1/3 of the same week last year. AgRural estimates the Brazilian second corn crop is 67% harvested, which is well above the 36% from this week last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market Attempting Third Daily Advance

Cotton futures are trading 12 to 30 points higher to begin your Tuesday. They settled firm to 39 points higher in the front months on Monday. The weekly Crop Progress report from NASS showed the 2019 US cotton crop at 78% squared (80% avg), as 33% was setting bolls (37% avg). Cotton conditions improved another 4% to 60% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 shifting 11 points higher to 358. The 7-day QPF shows very little moisture for most of TX over the next week, with parts of the Southeast seeing a few showers. TS Barry helped more acres than it hurt. The Cotlook A index for July 18 was down 75 points from the previous day at 72.95 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 55.81 cents/lb effective through Thursday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs Mostly Higher on Monday

Lean Hog futures were firm, to 40 cents higher in most contracts on Monday. August was down 65 cents, marking time as it is showing a $10 premium to the index. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 88 cents from the previous day on July 18 @ $72.40. The newly updated CME Fresh Bacon Index was up $5.81 wk/wk at $137.89/cwt. The USDA pork carcass cutout value rose $2.08 at $80.61 on Monday afternoon. All primals were reported higher. The national average base hog value was up $3.78 on Monday at $76.02. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 473,000 head on Monday. That was up 63,000 head from the previous week and 49,000 head below the same week last year. Frozen pork stocks at the end of June were tallied at 622.367 million lbs. That was up 10.77% from last year but a drop of 1.05% from May. Belly stocks were up 5.98% from a year ago at 56.563 million lbs, but down 11.95% from May.

AUG 19 Hogs are at $83.225, down $0.65,

OCT 19 Hogs are at $79.200, up $0.275,

DEC 19 Hogs are at $77.025, up $0.275,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Corn Closes Lower on Friendlier Weather

Corn futures ended the Monday session with most contracts 7 to 9 cents in the red. Cooler Corn Belt temps this week are a negative, helpful as more of the crop reaches the pollination stage. The weekly Crop Progress report showed 35% of the crop silking as of Sunday vs. the 66% average, with 5% in the dough stage (10% average). Corn conditions slipped 1% to 57% gd/ex and 2 points on the Brugler500 index to 351. Analysts were expecting steady to a 1% improvement. The Export Inspections report from USDA showed corn shipments of just 438,045 MT in the week that ended on July 18. That was a 36.56% drop from last week and less than 1/3 of the same week last year. AgRural estimates the Brazilian second corn crop at 67% harvested, which is well above the 36% from this week last year.

SEP 19 Corn is at $4.22 1/4, down 8 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 Corn is at $4.26 3/4, down 9 cents,

MAR 20 Corn is at $4.35 3/4, down 8 1/4 cents

MAY 20 Corn is at $4.40 1/4, down 7 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Double Digits Lower on Monday

Soybean futures closed Monday with most nearby contracts 13 to 13 1/2 cents lower. August soybean meal was down $2.80/ton, with soy oil 37 points lower. Cooler forecasts and rains from this weekend along with no news about Chinese purchases caused some selling pressure. This afternoon’s NASS report indicated that 40% of the US soybean crop was blooming as od 7/21 (66% avg), with 7% setting pods (28% avg). As expected, conditions were unch at 54% gd/ex and 347 on the Brugler 500index. USDA reported 559,462 MT of soybeans inspected for export during the week that ended on July 18. That was 34.6% below the week prior and down 23.17% from this week in 2018. Of that total, 317,456 MT was headed to China.

AUG 19 Soybeans are at $8.88 1/4, down 13 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans are at $8.94, down 13 1/4 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.05 3/4, down 13 1/2 cents,

JAN 20 Soybeans are at $9.18 1/2, down 13 1/4 cents,

AUG 19 Soybean Meal is at $308.40, down $2.80,

AUG 19 Soybean Oil is at $27.73, down $0.37

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Close Higher on Monday, as June Beef Stocks at 5-Year Low

Live cattle futures saw 65 to 85 cent gains in the front months on Monday, following Friday’s USDA reports. Feeder cattle futures received some additional help from corn, with the front months $2.20 to $2.625 higher. The monthly NASS Cold Storage report indicated another drop in frozen beef stocks to 394.525 million lbs on June 30. That was down another 2.62% from May and 12.05% below a year ago at a 5-year low. The CME feeder cattle index was down 49 cents @ $138.16 on July 19. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Monday afternoon with Choice boxes down a dime per cwt at $213.32 and Select boxes 8 cents higher @ $189.59. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 114,000 head, which is 3,000 head below last week and 4,000 above the same Monday last year.

AUG 19 Cattle are at $108.450, up $0.85,

OCT 19 Cattle are at $109.150, up $0.65,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $113.800, up $0.65,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.175, up $2.20,

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.425, up $2.625,

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.650, up $2.625,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat End Monday With Losses

Wheat futures were down 8 to 15 1/4 cents in most contracts on Monday. All wheat exports for the week that ended on 7/18 were tallied at 433,117 MT via USDA’s Export Inspections report. That was a 24.27% jump from the previous and slightly higher than this week last year. The spring wheat quality tour is being held this week, which should contribute to our understanding of the MPLS HRS crop. NASS reported the spring wheat crop at 76%, unch from the previous week with the Brugler500 up 3 points on a swing from good to excellent. The crop was reported at 92% headed vs. the 94% average. The winter wheat harvest progressed 12% from the previous week to 69% complete but still lags the 79% average pace. Russia’s IKAR trimmed their 19/20 wheat crop estimated by 1.3 MMT to 76.1 MMT, vs. the USDA at 74.2 MMT. Egypt is tendering for wheat, with results expected on Tuesday.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.87 1/4, down 15 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.29 1/4, down 10 3/4 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.21 1/4, down 8 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Higher to Close Monday

Cotton futures settled firm to 39 points higher in most front months on Monday. The weekly Crop Progress report from NASS showed the 2019 US cotton crop at 78% squared (80% avg), as 33% was reported as setting bolls (37% avg). Cotton conditions improved another 4% to 60% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 shifting 11 points higher to 358. The 7-day QPF shows very little moisture for most of TX over the next week, with parts of the Southeast seeing a few showers. The Cotlook A index for July 18 was down 75 points from the previous day at 72.95 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 55.81 cents/lb effective through Thursday.

OCT 19 Cotton is at 62.64, up 39 points,

DEC 19 Cotton is at 63.36, up 29 points

MAR 20 Cotton is at 64.13, up 15 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 65.02, up 5 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures ended the Monday session with most contracts 7 to 9 cents in the red. Cooler Corn Belt temps this week are a negative, helpful as more of the crop reaches the pollination stage. The weekly Crop Progress report showed 35% of the crop silking as of Sunday vs. the 66% average, with 5% in the dough stage (10% average). Corn conditions slipped 1% to 57% gd/ex and 2 points on the Brugler500 index to 351. Analysts were expecting steady to a 1% improvement. The Export Inspections report from USDA showed corn shipments of just 438,045 MT in the week that ended on July 18. That was a 36.56% drop from last week and less than 1/3 of the same week last year. AgRural estimates the Brazilian second corn crop at 67% harvested, which is well above the 36% from this week last year.

SEP 19 Corn is at $4.22 1/4, down 8 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 Corn is at $4.26 3/4, down 9 cents,

MAR 20 Corn is at $4.35 3/4, down 8 1/4 cents

MAY 20 Corn is at $4.40 1/4, down 7 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures closed Monday with most nearby contracts 13 to 13 1/2 cents lower. August soybean meal was down $2.80/ton, with soy oil 37 points lower. Cooler forecasts and rains from this weekend along with no news about Chinese purchases caused some selling pressure. This afternoon’s NASS report indicated that 40% of the US soybean crop was blooming as od 7/21 (66% avg), with 7% setting pods (28% avg). As expected, conditions were unch at 54% gd/ex and 347 on the Brugler 500index. USDA reported 559,462 MT of soybeans inspected for export during the week that ended on July 18. That was 34.6% below the week prior and down 23.17% from this week in 2018. Of that total, 317,456 MT was headed to China.

AUG 19 Soybeans are at $8.88 1/4, down 13 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans are at $8.94, down 13 1/4 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.05 3/4, down 13 1/2 cents,

JAN 20 Soybeans are at $9.18 1/2, down 13 1/4 cents,

AUG 19 Soybean Meal is at $308.40, down $2.80,

AUG 19 Soybean Oil is at $27.73, down $0.37

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures were down 8 to 15 1/4 cents in most contracts on Monday. All wheat exports for the week that ended on 7/18 were tallied at 433,117 MT via USDA’s Export Inspections report. That was a 24.27% jump from the previous and slightly higher than this week last year. The spring wheat quality tour is being held this week, which should contribute to our understanding of the MPLS HRS crop. NASS reported the spring wheat crop at 76%, unch from the previous week with the Brugler500 up 3 points on a swing from good to excellent. The crop was reported at 92% headed vs. the 94% average. The winter wheat harvest progressed 12% from the previous week to 69% complete but still lags the 79% average pace. Russia’s IKAR trimmed their 19/20 wheat crop estimated by 1.3 MMT to 76.1 MMT, vs. the USDA at 74.2 MMT. Egypt is tendering for wheat, with results expected on Tuesday.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.87 1/4, down 15 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.29 1/4, down 10 3/4 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.21 1/4, down 8 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures saw 65 to 85 cent gains in the front months on Monday, following Friday’s USDA reports. Feeder cattle futures received some additional help from corn, with the front months $2.20 to $2.625 higher. The monthly NASS Cold Storage report indicated another drop in frozen beef stocks to 394.525 million lbs on June 30. That was down another 2.62% from May and 12.05% below a year ago at a 5-year low. The CME feeder cattle index was down 49 cents @ $138.16 on July 19. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Monday afternoon with Choice boxes down a dime per cwt at $213.32 and Select boxes 8 cents higher @ $189.59. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 114,000 head, which is 3,000 head below last week and 4,000 above the same Monday last year.

AUG 19 Cattle are at $108.450, up $0.85,

OCT 19 Cattle are at $109.150, up $0.65,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $113.800, up $0.65,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.175, up $2.20,

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.425, up $2.625,

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.650, up $2.625,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures were firm, to 40 cents higher in most contracts on Monday. August was down 65 cents, marking time as it is showing a $10 premium to the index. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 88 cents from the previous day on July 18 @ $72.40. The newly updated CME Fresh Bacon Index was up $5.81 wk/wk at $137.89/cwt. The USDA pork carcass cutout value rose $2.08 at $80.61 on Monday afternoon. All primals were reported higher. The national average base hog value was up $3.78 on Monday at $76.02. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 473,000 head on Monday. That was up 63,000 head from the previous week and 49,000 head below the same week last year. Frozen pork stocks at the end of June were tallied at 622.367 million lbs. That was up 10.77% from last year but a drop of 1.05% from May. Belly stocks were up 5.98% from a year ago at 56.563 million lbs, but down 11.95% from May.

AUG 19 Hogs are at $83.225, down $0.65,

OCT 19 Hogs are at $79.200, up $0.275,

DEC 19 Hogs are at $77.025, up $0.275,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures settled firm to 39 points higher in most front months on Monday. The weekly Crop Progress report from NASS showed the 2019 US cotton crop at 78% squared (80% avg), as 33% was reported as setting bolls (37% avg). Cotton conditions improved another 4% to 60% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 shifting 11 points higher to 358. The 7-day QPF shows very little moisture for most of TX over the next week, with parts of the Southeast seeing a few showers. The Cotlook A index for July 18 was down 75 points from the previous day at 72.95 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 55.81 cents/lb effective through Thursday.

OCT 19 Cotton is at 62.64, up 39 points,

DEC 19 Cotton is at 63.36, up 29 points

MAR 20 Cotton is at 64.13, up 15 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 65.02, up 5 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybeans Posting Double Digit Losses on Monday

Soybean futures are down 10 to 11 3/4 cents in most contracts on Monday. August soybean meal is down $2.60/ton, with soy oil 25 points lower. Cooler forecasts and rains from this weekend along with no news about Chinese purchases are causing some selling. USDA reported 559,462 MT of soybeans inspected for export during the week that ended on July 18. That was 34.6% below the week prior and down 23.17% from this week in 2018. Of that total, 317,456 MT was headed to China. The weekly Crop Progress report is generally seen showing soybean crop conditions near UNCH from last week at 54% gd/ex. Friday afternoon’s CFTC report indicated money managers in soybean futures and options backing off their net short position by 2,999 contracts to -38,935 contracts.

AUG 19 Soybeans are at $8.90 1/4, down 11 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans are at $8.95 3/4, down 11 1/2 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.07 1/2, down 11 3/4 cents,

JAN 20 Soybeans are at $9.20 1/4, down 11 1/2 cents,

AUG 19 Soybean Meal is at $308.60, down $2.60,

AUG 19 Soybean Oil is at $27.85, down $0.25

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs Mostly Higher on Monday

Lean Hog futures are firm to 50 cents higher in most contracts. August is down 67.5 cents, as it is showing a $10 premium to the index. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 88 cents from the previous day on July 18 @ $72.40. The newly updated CME Fresh Bacon Index was up $5.81 wk/wk at $137.89/cwt. The USDA pork carcass cutout value rose a sharp $4.70 at $83.23 on Monday morning. All primals were reported higher, with the Belly leading the way, up $18.77. The national average base hog value was up 20 cents on Monday at $72.44. Estimated FI hog slaughter last week was 2.303 million head. That was down 107,000 head from the previous week and 75,000 head below the same week last year.

AUG 19 Hogs are at $83.200, down $0.675,

OCT 19 Hogs are at $79.000, up $0.075

DEC 19 Hogs are at $77.175, up $0.425

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Corn 8-9 Cents Lower at Midday

Corn futures are trading 8 to 9 cents lower to start the week. The Export Inspections report from USDA showed corn shipments of just 438,045 MT in the week that ended on July 18. That was a 36.56% drop from last week and less than 1/3 of the same week last year. Cooler Corn Belt temps this week are a negative, helpful as more of the crop reaches the pollination stage. This afternoon’s NASS report is expected to show steady to slightly improving conditions of the corn crop as of Sunday. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated that spec traders in corn futures and options were net long 187,260 contracts as of Tuesday. AgRural estimates the Brazilian second corn crop at 67% harvested, which is well above the 36% from this week last year.

SEP 19 Corn is at $4.22 1/4, down 8 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 Corn is at $4.26 3/4, down 9 cents,

MAR 20 Corn is at $4.35 1/2, down 8 1/2 cents

MAY 20 Corn is at $4.40, down 8 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Lower at Midday

Wheat futures are down 2 to 11 1/4 cents in most contracts at midday, with MPLS the firmest. All wheat exports for the week that ended on 7/18 were tallied at 433,117 MT via USDA’s Export Inspections report. That was a 24.27% jump from the previous and slightly higher than this week last year. The spring wheat quality tour is being held this week, which should contribute to our understanding of the MPLS HRS crop. Ahead of the Crop Progress report, surveyed analysts expect to see steady spring wheat ratings at 76% gd/ex. The winter wheat harvest is seen as progressing to 73% complete. CFTC data showed specs at a record net short position in MPLS wheat on 7/16 at -13,027 contracts. Russia’s IKAR trimmed their 19/20 wheat crop estimated by 1.3 MMT to 76.1 MMT, vs. the USDA at 74.2 MMT.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.91 1/4, down 11 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.32 3/4, down 7 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.25 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle in the Green on Monday

Live cattle futures are showing 35 to 70 cent gains in most contracts following Friday’s USDA reports. Feeder cattle futures are getting some additional help from corn, with most contracts $1.35 to $1.75 higher. NASS reported all cattle and calves at 103 million head, unch from last year. Beef cows were also steady at 32.4 mil head, with replacement heifers at 4.4 mil head, down 4.3% from last year. July 1 cattle on feed were shown up 1.75% from last year at 11.485 mil head, with June placements down 2.34% at 1.756 mil head and marketings down 3.04% at 1.945 mil head. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.35 @ $138.65 on July 18. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Monday morning with Choice boxes down 23 cents per cwt at $213.19 and Select boxes 17 cents higher @ $189.68. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter at 651,000 head last week. Cash trade last week was mostly $111 in the South and $182-185 dressed in the North.

AUG 19 Cattle are at $108.275, up $0.675,

OCT 19 Cattle are at $109.075, up $0.575,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $113.675, up $0.500,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle are at $141.425, up $1.450

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle are at $141.500, up $1.700

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $141.650, up $1.625

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 8 to 9 cents lower to start the week. The Export Inspections report from USDA showed corn shipments of just 438,045 MT in the week that ended on July 18. That was a 36.56% drop from last week and less than 1/3 of the same week last year. Cooler Corn Belt temps this week are a negative, helpful as more of the crop reaches the pollination stage. This afternoon’s NASS report is expected to show steady to slightly improving conditions of the corn crop as of Sunday. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated that spec traders in corn futures and options were net long 187,260 contracts as of Tuesday. AgRural estimates the Brazilian second corn crop at 67% harvested, which is well above the 36% from this week last year.

SEP 19 Corn is at $4.22 1/4, down 8 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 Corn is at $4.26 3/4, down 9 cents,

MAR 20 Corn is at $4.35 1/2, down 8 1/2 cents

MAY 20 Corn is at $4.40, down 8 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are down 10 to 11 3/4 cents in most contracts on Monday. August soybean meal is down $2.60/ton, with soy oil 25 points lower. Cooler forecasts and rains from this weekend along with no news about Chinese purchases are causing some selling. USDA reported 559,462 MT of soybeans inspected for export during the week that ended on July 18. That was 34.6% below the week prior and down 23.17% from this week in 2018. Of that total, 317,456 MT was headed to China. The weekly Crop Progress report is generally seen showing soybean crop conditions near UNCH from last week at 54% gd/ex. Friday afternoon’s CFTC report indicated money managers in soybean futures and options backing off their net short position by 2,999 contracts to -38,935 contracts.

AUG 19 Soybeans are at $8.90 1/4, down 11 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans are at $8.95 3/4, down 11 1/2 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.07 1/2, down 11 3/4 cents,

JAN 20 Soybeans are at $9.20 1/4, down 11 1/2 cents,

AUG 19 Soybean Meal is at $308.60, down $2.60,

AUG 19 Soybean Oil is at $27.85, down $0.25

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are down 2 to 11 1/4 cents in most contracts at midday, with MPLS the firmest. All wheat exports for the week that ended on 7/18 were tallied at 433,117 MT via USDA’s Export Inspections report. That was a 24.27% jump from the previous and slightly higher than this week last year. The spring wheat quality tour is being held this week, which should contribute to our understanding of the MPLS HRS crop. Ahead of the Crop Progress report, surveyed analysts expect to see steady spring wheat ratings at 76% gd/ex. The winter wheat harvest is seen as progressing to 73% complete. CFTC data showed specs at a record net short position in MPLS wheat on 7/16 at -13,027 contracts. Russia’s IKAR trimmed their 19/20 wheat crop estimated by 1.3 MMT to 76.1 MMT, vs. the USDA at 74.2 MMT.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.91 1/4, down 11 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.32 3/4, down 7 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.25 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures are showing 35 to 70 cent gains in most contracts following Friday’s USDA reports. Feeder cattle futures are getting some additional help from corn, with most contracts $1.35 to $1.75 higher. NASS reported all cattle and calves at 103 million head, unch from last year. Beef cows were also steady at 32.4 mil head, with replacement heifers at 4.4 mil head, down 4.3% from last year. July 1 cattle on feed were shown up 1.75% from last year at 11.485 mil head, with June placements down 2.34% at 1.756 mil head and marketings down 3.04% at 1.945 mil head. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.35 @ $138.65 on July 18. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Monday morning with Choice boxes down 23 cents per cwt at $213.19 and Select boxes 17 cents higher @ $189.68. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter at 651,000 head last week. Cash trade last week was mostly $111 in the South and $182-185 dressed in the North.

AUG 19 Cattle are at $108.275, up $0.675,

OCT 19 Cattle are at $109.075, up $0.575,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $113.675, up $0.500,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle are at $141.425, up $1.450

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle are at $141.500, up $1.700

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $141.650, up $1.625

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures are firm to 50 cents higher in most contracts. August is down 67.5 cents, as it is showing a $10 premium to the index. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 88 cents from the previous day on July 18 @ $72.40. The newly updated CME Fresh Bacon Index was up $5.81 wk/wk at $137.89/cwt. The USDA pork carcass cutout value rose a sharp $4.70 at $83.23 on Monday morning. All primals were reported higher, with the Belly leading the way, up $18.77. The national average base hog value was up 20 cents on Monday at $72.44. Estimated FI hog slaughter last week was 2.303 million head. That was down 107,000 head from the previous week and 75,000 head below the same week last year.

AUG 19 Hogs are at $83.200, down $0.675,

OCT 19 Hogs are at $79.000, up $0.075

DEC 19 Hogs are at $77.175, up $0.425

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are up 22 to 50 points in most contracts at midday. Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report showed another record reported net short position for spec traders in cotton futures and options on Tuesday at 44,270 contracts. USDA will update the cotton progress and conditions later this afternoon. The 7-day QPF shows very little moisture for most of TX over the next week, with parts of the Southeast seeing a few showers. The Cotlook A index for July 18 was down 75 points from the previous day at 72.95 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 55.81 cents/lb effective through Thursday.

OCT 19 Cotton is at 62.64, up 39 points,

DEC 19 Cotton is at 63.57, up 50 points

MAR 20 Cotton is at 64.31, up 33 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 65.19, up 22 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton Higher at Midday

Cotton futures are up 22 to 50 points in most contracts at midday. Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report showed another record reported net short position for spec traders in cotton futures and options on Tuesday at 44,270 contracts. USDA will update the cotton progress and conditions later this afternoon. The 7-day QPF shows very little moisture for most of TX over the next week, with parts of the Southeast seeing a few showers. The Cotlook A index for July 18 was down 75 points from the previous day at 72.95 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 55.81 cents/lb effective through Thursday.

OCT 19 Cotton is at 62.64, up 39 points,

DEC 19 Cotton is at 63.57, up 50 points

MAR 20 Cotton is at 64.31, up 33 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 65.19, up 22 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 5 to 6 cents lower this morning on more moderate Midwest weather. They closed the Friday session with most contracts 5 to 6 1/4 cents higher after a week of losses. Preliminary open interest showed long liquidation, with OI down 2,548 contracts. From Friday to Friday, Sep dropped 5.17%. Spillover buying from soybeans and wheat was supportive at the end of the week, along with Fed easing talk. Cooler Corn Belt temps this week are a negative, helpful as more of the crop reaches the pollination stage. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated that spec traders in corn futures and options were net long 187,260 contracts as of Tuesday. Commercials were net short 522,525 contracts on that date, nearing a record number of short positions (1.134 million). Safras & Mercado expect the 19/20 Brazilian corn crop to total 103.97 MMT.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are 2 to 3 cents lower to begin your Monday. They saw 20 1/4 cent gains in the front months on Friday. That partially offset losses from the other 4 trade sessions, as Aug was down 1.29% for the full week. Preliminary open interest shows some light net buying at 530 contracts. August soybean meal was up $4.20/ton, with soy oil up 46 points. Rumors of Chinese requests for quotes also encouraged the short covering. Estimates from Safras & Mercado show expected 19/20 soybean production in Brazil at a record 123.788 MMT, with acreage seen up 0.8% from last year. Friday afternoon’s CFTC report indicated money managers in soybean futures and options backing off their net short position by 2,999 contracts to -38,935 contracts.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are 1 to 5 cents lower across the three markets after ending the Friday session with most contracts 3 to 9 cents higher. Shorts took some of their winnings off the table ahead of the weekend. There was also some net new buying interest in Chicago, with preliminary open interest up 1,550 contracts. Over the course of the week CBT lost 3.92%, with KC 5.83% and MPLS 2.3% lower. The spring wheat quality tour is being held this week, which should contribute to our understanding of the MPLS HRS crop. CFTC data showed specs in KC wheat trimmed 1,649 contracts from their net short position to 16,156 contracts. In CBT wheat they cut 11,623 contracts from that net long position to 18,751 contracts. They showed a record net short position in MPLS wheat on Tuesday at -13,027 contracts. The French wheat harvest is now 33% complete, a 24% move over the past week. The French crop has been stressed by hot and dry temps, with yield estimates declining.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures posted 20 to 77.5 cent gains in most contracts on Friday. Feeder cattle futures were up 30 to 55 cents. NASS reported all cattle and calves at 103 million head, unch from last year. Beef cows were also steady at 32.4 mil head, with replacement heifers at 4.4 mil head, down 4.3% from last year. July 1 cattle on feed were shown up 1.75% from last year at 11.485 mil head, with June placements down 2.34% at 1.756 mil head and marketings down 3.04% at 1.945 mil head. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.33 @ $138.67 on July 18. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Friday afternoon with Choice boxes up 8 cents per cwt at $213.42 and Select boxes 90 cents higher @ $189.51. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 651,000 head through Saturday. Cash trade last week was mostly $111 in the South and $182-185 dressed in the North. After 11 weeks of liquidation, managed money added back 3,690 contracts to their CFTC net long position to put it at 25,443 contracts on Tuesday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures settled with 42.5 cent to $2.025 gains in most contract on Friday, as Aug was up 4% for the week. There was definitely some new buying interest, with preliminary open interest rising 8,301 contracts on the day. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 17 cents from the previous day on July 16 @ $70.79. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up another $1.93 at $78.53. The picnic and butt were the only primals lower. The national average base hog value was up 79 cents on Friday at $72.48. Estimated FI hog slaughter last week was 2.303 million head. That was down 107,000 head from the previous week and 75,000 head below the same week last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are trading 15 to 57 points higher, extending Friday’s short covering rally. They were up 104 to 152 points in most contracts on Friday. Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report showed another record reported net short position for spec traders in cotton futures and options on Tuesday at 44,270 contracts. Upland cotton export commitments are now 115% of the USDA projection, with the average pace running 107%. With just under a month left in the MY, however, accumulated exports are 91% of that number, with the normal pace at 95%. The Cotlook A index for July 18 was down 50 points from the previous day at 73.70 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 55.81 cents/lb effective through next Thursday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Corn Futures 5 to 6 Lower To Begin Week

Corn futures are trading 5 to 6 cents lower this morning on more moderate Midwest weather. They closed the Friday session with most contracts 5 to 6 1/4 cents higher after a week of losses. Preliminary open interest showed long liquidation, with OI down 2,548 contracts. From Friday to Friday, Sep dropped 5.17%. Spillover buying from soybeans and wheat was supportive at the end of the week, along with Fed easing talk. Cooler Corn Belt temps this week are a negative, helpful as more of the crop reaches the pollination stage. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated that spec traders in corn futures and options were net long 187,260 contracts as of Tuesday. Commercials were net short 522,525 contracts on that date, nearing a record number of short positions (1.134 million). Safras & Mercado expect the 19/20 Brazilian corn crop to total 103.97 MMT.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market Sees No Expansion in US Herd

Live cattle futures posted 20 to 77.5 cent gains in most contracts on Friday. Feeder cattle futures were up 30 to 55 cents. NASS reported all cattle and calves at 103 million head, unch from last year. Beef cows were also steady at 32.4 mil head, with replacement heifers at 4.4 mil head, down 4.3% from last year. July 1 cattle on feed were shown up 1.75% from last year at 11.485 mil head, with June placements down 2.34% at 1.756 mil head and marketings down 3.04% at 1.945 mil head. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.33 @ $138.67 on July 18. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Friday afternoon with Choice boxes up 8 cents per cwt at $213.42 and Select boxes 90 cents higher @ $189.51. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 651,000 head through Saturday. Cash trade last week was mostly $111 in the South and $182-185 dressed in the North. After 11 weeks of liquidation, managed money added back 3,690 contracts to their CFTC net long position to put it at 25,443 contracts on Tuesday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Markets Down 1 to 5 Cents Ahead of Tour

Wheat futures are 1 to 5 cents lower across the three markets after ending the Friday session with most contracts 3 to 9 cents higher. Shorts took some of their winnings off the table ahead of the weekend. There was also some net new buying interest in Chicago, with preliminary open interest up 1,550 contracts. Over the course of the week CBT lost 3.92%, with KC 5.83% and MPLS 2.3% lower. The spring wheat quality tour is being held this week, which should contribute to our understanding of the MPLS HRS crop. CFTC data showed specs in KC wheat trimmed 1,649 contracts from their net short position to 16,156 contracts. In CBT wheat they cut 11,623 contracts from that net long position to 18,751 contracts. They showed a record net short position in MPLS wheat on Tuesday at -13,027 contracts. The French wheat harvest is now 33% complete, a 24% move over the past week. The French crop has been stressed by hot and dry temps, with yield estimates declining.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog Futures & Products Firming

Lean Hog futures settled with 42.5 cent to $2.025 gains in most contract on Friday, as Aug was up 4% for the week. There was definitely some new buying interest, with preliminary open interest rising 8,301 contracts on the day. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 17 cents from the previous day on July 16 @ $70.79. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up another $1.93 at $78.53. The picnic and butt were the only primals lower. The national average base hog value was up 79 cents on Friday at $72.48. Estimated FI hog slaughter last week was 2.303 million head. That was down 107,000 head from the previous week and 75,000 head below the same week last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management