News Source: BRUG

Soybean Market 5 to 8 Cents Lower

Following the weekend break, soybean futures are another 5 to 8 cents lower. The soy complex closed in the red on Friday, with beans down 6 3/4 to 10 3/4 cents, meal down by as much as $5/ton, and soy oil futures 7 to 8 points per lb lower. The 2019/20 USDA carryout estimate rose to 620 mbu. Despite the larger ending stocks, USDA raised the cash average price a nickel to $8.55. The cash average price for the products also increased, $5 for meal to $300/ton, and 25 points for oil to 28.75 cents/lb. Expected cash average prices for next year were $8.50 for beans (+ $0.30), $300/ton for meal (+ $10), and 29 c/lb for oil (unch). New crop ending stocks were also up by more than expected, with a 30 mbu bump to 425. USDA increased soybean oil exports in the supply and demand forecasts. Up 150 million lbs to 2.85 billion for 2019/20, and up 200m lbs to 2.4 billion for 2020/21. 2019/20 soymeal production was increased to 50.623m tons, the additional meal went to domestic use. For 2020/21, USDA sees 50.975m tons of meal produced on 2.16 bbu of beans. In a bearish surprise, Brazilian old crop bean production was hiked to 126 MMT. World bean carryout was increased 480k MT to 99.7 MMT for old crop, but new crop was 1.26 MMT lower at 95.08. In the weekly CFTC report, soybean spec traders were 99,243 contracts net long on July 7. That was their largest net long since May 29 of 2018.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Ag Market Commentary

After the double digit losses on Friday erased the week’s gains, corn prices start the new week another 6 to 8 cents per bushel lower. While night time temps remain very high, threatening yield, the weather forecasts got a lot wetter since Friday for IL and IN and SW OH. Corn futures closed 10 to 12 1/4 cents in the red on Friday. Net new selling was noted in the December contract, with preliminary OI rising 8,069 across all months. USDA cut ethanol corn use 50 mbu to 4.85 bbu, feed and residual was down 100 mbu to 5.6 bbu. Old crop carryout was ultimately bumped by 155 mbu to 2.248 bbu. The additional carryover to 2020/21 was offset by a larger than anticipated cut in production. USDA’s corn production forecast is 15 billion bushels, down 995 mbu from June. The cut to U.S. production lowered World production to 1.163 billion MT. US new crop ending stocks dropped by a larger amount than anticipated to 2.648 bbu. The expected cash price for new crop corn was up 15 cents from the previous estimate to $3.35/bu. The CFTC’s weekly CoT report showed funds covered 67,922 shorts in the week ending July 7 for a net short position of 141,741 contracts. Over the last 2 weeks managed money covered 119,564 shorts, and spec trader OI was down 18%.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Following the weekend break, soybean futures are another 5 to 8 cents lower. The soy complex closed in the red on Friday, with beans down 6 3/4 to 10 3/4 cents, meal down by as much as $5/ton, and soy oil futures 7 to 8 points per lb lower. The 2019/20 USDA carryout estimate rose to 620 mbu. Despite the larger ending stocks, USDA raised the cash average price a nickel to $8.55. The cash average price for the products also increased, $5 for meal to $300/ton, and 25 points for oil to 28.75 cents/lb. Expected cash average prices for next year were $8.50 for beans (+ $0.30), $300/ton for meal (+ $10), and 29 c/lb for oil (unch). New crop ending stocks were also up by more than expected, with a 30 mbu bump to 425. USDA increased soybean oil exports in the supply and demand forecasts. Up 150 million lbs to 2.85 billion for 2019/20, and up 200m lbs to 2.4 billion for 2020/21. 2019/20 soymeal production was increased to 50.623m tons, the additional meal went to domestic use. For 2020/21, USDA sees 50.975m tons of meal produced on 2.16 bbu of beans. In a bearish surprise, Brazilian old crop bean production was hiked to 126 MMT. World bean carryout was increased 480k MT to 99.7 MMT for old crop, but new crop was 1.26 MMT lower at 95.08. In the weekly CFTC report, soybean spec traders were 99,243 contracts net long on July 7. That was their largest net long since May 29 of 2018.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat markets start the week UNCH (MPLS) to 3 cents lower (CHI). Wheat futures traded in both directions on Friday. KC HRW futures closed with 3 to 4 3/4 cent losses. HRS wheat was fractionally mixed to 1 1/4 cents lower. SRW wheat was higher on the day, with 8 to 9 1/2 cent gains in the front months. The SRW to corn premium was at a monthly high. September SRW to Sept HRS premium was the highest since April 28, and the Chi to KC spread was the highest premium since December 10. The NASS wheat production numbers were bullish relative to June, and exceeded trade expectations. USDA’s July estimate for winter wheat production is 1.218 bbu, down by 48 mbu, while the trade was looking for an 18 mbu cut. That came via a 33 mbu cut to HRW and a 17 mbu cut for SRW production. Spring wheat production was estimated at 550 mbu. In total 2020/21 U.S. wheat production is forecasted at 1.824 bbu. U.S. ending stocks for 2020/21 are forecasted at 942 mbu, that is up 17 mbu from June. Globally, USDA has World wheat production at 769.31 MMT, which is 4.12 MT below the June estimate.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures ended Friday with gains of 65 to 95 cents, which was near the top of the day’s range. Feeder cattle futures put up triple digit gains ahead of the weekend. The CME Feeder Cattle index for July 9 was $134.92, up by 23 cents. CFTC reported managed funds were 22,908 contracts net long in cattle on July 7. That was a wk/wk increase of 30%, but spec trader OI was down by 1.5%. Managed money had reduced their net long in feeder cattle on the week to 1,579 contracts. In the monthly WASDE updates, USDA estimates 2020 beef production at 26.934b lbs. That is up from June’s 26.674. The increase was mostly to 3Q, up 105m lbs to 7.02 billion.. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Friday, widening the Chc/Sel spread to $10.21 (the highest in nearly a month but still down 58% yr/yr). Choice boxes were $0.91 stronger to $204.5. Select boxes fell another 54 cents to $194.29. USDA estimated cattle slaughter through Saturday at 664,000 for the week, and 16.516m head on the year. The week’s slaughter is 6,000 head above the year prior, but YTD slaughter is still trailing last year’s pace by 5.6%.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Front month lean hog futures closed the day with 35 to 82 cent losses in the front months. July contracts traded higher on the day, with a 12 cent move to $45.97. The 2 day lagged CME Lean Hog index for July 8 was down 17 cents to $45.18, a positive basis of $1.13 from the July 8th and an approximate basis of minus 80 cents from today’s close. In their weekly update, CFTC reported lean hog spec traders at 6,635 contracts net long. The net new buying interest increased the net long 1,937 contracts wk/wk. The National Average Afternoon Base Hog price was $0.09 lower to $29.99. In the monthly WASDE updates, USDA estimates 2020 pork production at 28.536b lbs. That is up 770m from June’s 27.766 billion lbs. 3Q was 310 million above the June estimate and 4Q was increased 325 million lbs to 7.485 billion. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was up $1.83 to $68.36. Ribs and bellies were lower, but the other primal cuts were higher. USDA estimated the week’s hog slaughter at 2.606m head through Saturday. That is 187k head above the same week last year, and pushed YTD slaughter to within 10k head of last year’s pace.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are 55 to 60 points lower coming out of the weekend break as the ags and energies are seeing broad selling, while gold and the stock market futures are higher. On Friday, cotton prices closed 33 to 42 points higher on the board. For October that extended the week’s gain to 133 points. USDA reported the weekly average spot price at 59.91 cents/lb, which was 235 points higher. In the WASDE reports, USDA left the 2019/20 cash average price at 59 cents/lb, but raised the 2020/21 by 2 cents to 59 c/lb. USDA’s cotton production forecast is 17.5m bales. That is down 2m bales from June on lower acres and lower yields. 2020/21 yield is estimated at 820 lbs/acre, down by 5 from the previous estimate. USDA cut new crop exports by 1m bales, but stocks were still down by 1.2 million from production losses. New crop ending stocks are estimated at 6.8 m bales. The CoT report showed net new buying alongside of short covering from cotton spec traders. Managed money’s net position in cotton was 21,520 contracts net long on July 7. Thursday cotton sales on the online cotton trading platform The Seam were a 6 month daily high 16,288 bales. WTD sales on The Seam were 24,053 bales at a wtd av price of 57.40 c/lb. The July 9 Cotlook A index was up by 70 points to 70.15 c/lb. The AWP for cotton for this week is 51.48 cents/lb., with a 0.52 cent LDP.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hogs Fight to Keep Cash Above $30

Front month lean hog futures closed the day with 35 to 82 cent losses in the front months. July contracts traded higher on the day, with a 12 cent move to $45.97. The 2 day lagged CME Lean Hog index for July 8 was down 17 cents to $45.18, a positive basis of $1.13 from the July 8th and an approximate basis of minus 80 cents from today’s close. In their weekly update, CFTC reported lean hog spec traders at 6,635 contracts net long. The net new buying interest increased the net long 1,937 contracts wk/wk. The National Average Afternoon Base Hog price was $0.09 lower to $29.99. In the monthly WASDE updates, USDA estimates 2020 pork production at 28.536b lbs. That is up 770m from June’s 27.766 billion lbs. 3Q was 310 million above the June estimate and 4Q was increased 325 million lbs to 7.485 billion. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was up $1.83 to $68.36. Ribs and bellies were lower, but the other primal cuts were higher. USDA estimated the week’s hog slaughter at 2.606m head through Saturday. That is 187k head above the same week last year, and pushed YTD slaughter to within 10k head of last year’s pace.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Corn Market Gaps Lower

After the double digit losses on Friday erased the week’s gains, corn prices start the new week another 6 to 8 cents per bushel lower. While night time temps remain very high, threatening yield, the weather forecasts got a lot wetter since Friday for IL and IN and SW OH. Corn futures closed 10 to 12 1/4 cents in the red on Friday. Net new selling was noted in the December contract, with preliminary OI rising 8,069 across all months. USDA cut ethanol corn use 50 mbu to 4.85 bbu, feed and residual was down 100 mbu to 5.6 bbu. Old crop carryout was ultimately bumped by 155 mbu to 2.248 bbu. The additional carryover to 2020/21 was offset by a larger than anticipated cut in production. USDA’s corn production forecast is 15 billion bushels, down 995 mbu from June. The cut to U.S. production lowered World production to 1.163 billion MT. US new crop ending stocks dropped by a larger amount than anticipated to 2.648 bbu. The expected cash price for new crop corn was up 15 cents from the previous estimate to $3.35/bu. The CFTC’s weekly CoT report showed funds covered 67,922 shorts in the week ending July 7 for a net short position of 141,741 contracts. Over the last 2 weeks managed money covered 119,564 shorts, and spec trader OI was down 18%.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Markets Steady to 3 Lower

Wheat markets start the week UNCH (MPLS) to 3 cents lower (CHI). Wheat futures traded in both directions on Friday. KC HRW futures closed with 3 to 4 3/4 cent losses. HRS wheat was fractionally mixed to 1 1/4 cents lower. SRW wheat was higher on the day, with 8 to 9 1/2 cent gains in the front months. The SRW to corn premium was at a monthly high. September SRW to Sept HRS premium was the highest since April 28, and the Chi to KC spread was the highest premium since December 10. The NASS wheat production numbers were bullish relative to June, and exceeded trade expectations. USDA’s July estimate for winter wheat production is 1.218 bbu, down by 48 mbu, while the trade was looking for an 18 mbu cut. That came via a 33 mbu cut to HRW and a 17 mbu cut for SRW production. Spring wheat production was estimated at 550 mbu. In total 2020/21 U.S. wheat production is forecasted at 1.824 bbu. U.S. ending stocks for 2020/21 are forecasted at 942 mbu, that is up 17 mbu from June. Globally, USDA has World wheat production at 769.31 MMT, which is 4.12 MT below the June estimate.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market Down 55 to 60 Points

Cotton futures are 55 to 60 points lower coming out of the weekend break as the ags and energies are seeing broad selling, while gold and the stock market futures are higher. On Friday, cotton prices closed 33 to 42 points higher on the board. For October that extended the week’s gain to 133 points. USDA reported the weekly average spot price at 59.91 cents/lb, which was 235 points higher. In the WASDE reports, USDA left the 2019/20 cash average price at 59 cents/lb, but raised the 2020/21 by 2 cents to 59 c/lb. USDA’s cotton production forecast is 17.5m bales. That is down 2m bales from June on lower acres and lower yields. 2020/21 yield is estimated at 820 lbs/acre, down by 5 from the previous estimate. USDA cut new crop exports by 1m bales, but stocks were still down by 1.2 million from production losses. New crop ending stocks are estimated at 6.8 m bales. The CoT report showed net new buying alongside of short covering from cotton spec traders. Managed money’s net position in cotton was 21,520 contracts net long on July 7. Thursday cotton sales on the online cotton trading platform The Seam were a 6 month daily high 16,288 bales. WTD sales on The Seam were 24,053 bales at a wtd av price of 57.40 c/lb. The July 9 Cotlook A index was up by 70 points to 70.15 c/lb. The AWP for cotton for this week is 51.48 cents/lb., with a 0.52 cent LDP.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market Still Stuggles With Beef Demand

Live cattle futures ended Friday with gains of 65 to 95 cents, which was near the top of the day’s range. Feeder cattle futures put up triple digit gains ahead of the weekend. The CME Feeder Cattle index for July 9 was $134.92, up by 23 cents. CFTC reported managed funds were 22,908 contracts net long in cattle on July 7. That was a wk/wk increase of 30%, but spec trader OI was down by 1.5%. Managed money had reduced their net long in feeder cattle on the week to 1,579 contracts. In the monthly WASDE updates, USDA estimates 2020 beef production at 26.934b lbs. That is up from June’s 26.674. The increase was mostly to 3Q, up 105m lbs to 7.02 billion.. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Friday, widening the Chc/Sel spread to $10.21 (the highest in nearly a month but still down 58% yr/yr). Choice boxes were $0.91 stronger to $204.5. Select boxes fell another 54 cents to $194.29. USDA estimated cattle slaughter through Saturday at 664,000 for the week, and 16.516m head on the year. The week’s slaughter is 6,000 head above the year prior, but YTD slaughter is still trailing last year’s pace by 5.6%.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Closed Mixed

Wheat traded in both directions on Friday. KC HRW futures closed with 3 to 4 3/4 cent losses. HRS wheat was fractionally mixed to 1 1/4 cents lower. SRW wheat was higher on the day, with 8 to 9 1/2 cent gains in the front months. SRW to corn premium was at a monthly high. September SRW to Sept HRS premium was the highest since April 28, and the Chi to KC spread was the highest premium since December 10. USDA announced a private export sale of 190k MT HRS and 130k MT of HRW to China this morning. The NASS wheat production numbers were bullish relative to June, and exceeded trade expectations. USDA’s July estimate for winter wheat production is 1.218 bbu, down by 48 mbu, while the trade was looking for an 18 mbu cut. That came via a 33 mbu cut to HRW and a 17 mbu cut for SRW production. Spring wheat production was estimated at 550 mbu, which was above the trade average guess of 546. In total 2020/21 U.S. wheat production is forecasted at 1.824 bbu. U.S. ending stocks for 2020/21 are forecasted at 942 mbu, that is up 17 mbu from June. Globally, USDA has World wheat production at 769.31 MMT, which is 4.12 MT below the June estimate.

Sep 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.34, up 9 cents,

Sep 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.52, down 4 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.26 1/4, up 1/4 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Beans Close in Red

Soybeans closed 6 3/4 to 10 3/4 cents lower in the red with double digit losses in new crop futures. Bean meal traded down by as much as $5/ton. Soy oil futures also closed in the red with losses of 7 to 8 points per lb. USDA estimates soybean production at 4.135 bbu, which was a smaller than expected increase. Shifting residual use from 4 mbu to a negative 46 mbu, 2019/20 carryout was up to 620 mbu. New crop ending stocks were also up by more than expected, with a 30 mbu bump to 425. Despite the larger ending stocks, USDA raised the new crop bean cash price 30 cents to $8.50/bu. World bean carryout was increased 480k MT to 99.7 MMT for old crop, but new crop was 1.26 MMT lower at 95.08. Brazilian old crop bean production was hiked to 126 MMT, larger than any of the published pre-report estimates. In the weekly CoT report, soybean spec traders were 99,243 contracts net long on July 7. That was the largest net long since May 29 of 2018. Managed money’s net short in soymeal was down 58% wk/wk to 21,910 contracts. Managed money expanded their net long in soybean oil to 19,418 contracts (the largest net long since Feb 25th).

Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.91 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents,

Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $8.87 1/4, down 9 1/4 cents,

Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $8.85 1/2, down 9 3/4 cents,

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.90 3/4, down 10 3/4 cents,

Aug 20 Soybean Meal closed at $292.50, down $4.80

Aug 20 Soybean Oil closed at $28.22, down $0.07

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Ag Market Commentary

Corn traders sold the fact and took profits ahead of the weekend. Futures closed the Friday session 10 to 12 1/4 cents deep in the red. From the mandatory reporting system, USDA announced a huge 1.365 MMT corn sale to China, split 56/44% old/new crop. USDA’s corn production forecast is 15 billion bushels, down 995 mbu from June due to acreage cuts. The trade was looking for a 954 mbu cut. Global corn production was down 25.27 MMT, reflecting the cut in U.S. production, to 1,163 MMT. Domestic old crop carryout increased 145 mbu to 2.248, which was a smaller than anticipated increase. The 2020/21 corn stocks were dropped by a larger amount than anticipated, with USDA showing 2.648 bbu. The expected cash price for new crop corn was up 15 cents to $3.35/bu. The CFTC’s weekly CoT report showed funds covered 67,922 shorts on the week for a net short position of 141,741 contracts. Over the last 2 weeks managed money covered 119,564 shorts, and spec trader OI was down 18%.

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.40 1/2, down 10 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.37 1/4, down 11 1/2 cents,

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.44 3/4, down 12 1/4 cents,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.55, down 11 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybeans closed 6 3/4 to 10 3/4 cents lower in the red with double digit losses in new crop futures. Bean meal traded down by as much as $5/ton. Soy oil futures also closed in the red with losses of 7 to 8 points per lb. USDA estimates soybean production at 4.135 bbu, which was a smaller than expected increase. Shifting residual use from 4 mbu to a negative 46 mbu, 2019/20 carryout was up to 620 mbu. New crop ending stocks were also up by more than expected, with a 30 mbu bump to 425. Despite the larger ending stocks, USDA raised the new crop bean cash price 30 cents to $8.50/bu. World bean carryout was increased 480k MT to 99.7 MMT for old crop, but new crop was 1.26 MMT lower at 95.08. Brazilian old crop bean production was hiked to 126 MMT, larger than any of the published pre-report estimates. In the weekly CoT report, soybean spec traders were 99,243 contracts net long on July 7. That was the largest net long since May 29 of 2018. Managed money’s net short in soymeal was down 58% wk/wk to 21,910 contracts. Managed money expanded their net long in soybean oil to 19,418 contracts (the largest net long since Feb 25th).

Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.91 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents,

Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $8.87 1/4, down 9 1/4 cents,

Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $8.85 1/2, down 9 3/4 cents,

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.90 3/4, down 10 3/4 cents,

Aug 20 Soybean Meal closed at $292.50, down $4.80

Aug 20 Soybean Oil closed at $28.22, down $0.07

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat traded in both directions on Friday. KC HRW futures closed with 3 to 4 3/4 cent losses. HRS wheat was fractionally mixed to 1 1/4 cents lower. SRW wheat was higher on the day, with 8 to 9 1/2 cent gains in the front months. SRW to corn premium was at a monthly high. September SRW to Sept HRS premium was the highest since April 28, and the Chi to KC spread was the highest premium since December 10. USDA announced a private export sale of 190k MT HRS and 130k MT of HRW to China this morning. The NASS wheat production numbers were bullish relative to June, and exceeded trade expectations. USDA’s July estimate for winter wheat production is 1.218 bbu, down by 48 mbu, while the trade was looking for an 18 mbu cut. That came via a 33 mbu cut to HRW and a 17 mbu cut for SRW production. Spring wheat production was estimated at 550 mbu, which was above the trade average guess of 546. In total 2020/21 U.S. wheat production is forecasted at 1.824 bbu. U.S. ending stocks for 2020/21 are forecasted at 942 mbu, that is up 17 mbu from June. Globally, USDA has World wheat production at 769.31 MMT, which is 4.12 MT below the June estimate.

Sep 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.34, up 9 cents,

Sep 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.52, down 4 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.26 1/4, up 1/4 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures closed the day with gains of 65 to 95 cents, which was near the top of the day’s range. Feeder cattle futures progressed triple digits ahead of the weekend. The CME Feeder Cattle index for July 9 was $134.92, up by 23 cents. CFTC reported managed funds were 22,908 contracts net long in cattle on July 7. That was a wk/wk increase of 30%, but spec trader OI was down by 1.5%. Managed money had reduced their net long in feeder cattle on the week to 1,579 contracts. In the monthly WASDE updates, USDA estimates 2020 beef production at 26.934b lbs. That is up from June’s 26.674. The increase was mostly to 3Q, up 105m lbs to 7.02 billion. 4Q production is estimated at 6.935 b lbs. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Friday, widening the Chc/Sel spread to $10.21. Choice boxes were $0.91 stronger to $204.5. Select boxes fell another 54 cents to $194.29. USDA estimated cattle slaughter through Saturday at 664,000 for the week, and 16.516m head on the year. The week’s slaughter is 6,000 head above the year prior, but YTD slaughter is still trailing last year’s pace by 5.6%.

Aug 20 Cattle closed at $100.000, up $0.750,

Oct 20 Cattle closed at $104.575, up $0.650,

Dec 20 Cattle closed at $108.400, up $0.950,

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $135.750, up $1.225

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $137.325, up $1.150

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $138.500, up $1.375

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Front month lean hog futures closed the day with 35 to 82 cent losses in the front months. July contracts traded higher on the day, with a 12 cent move to $45.97. The 2 day lagged CME Lean Hog index for July 8 was down 17 cents to $45.18, a positive basis of $1.13 from the July 8th and an approximate basis of minus 80 cents from today’s close. The Chinese Dalian lean hog futures contract launched a preliminary test round of trading on Friday. The official release date for the contracts has not yet been established. In their weekly update, CFTC reported lean hog spec traders at 6,635 contracts net long. The net new buying interest increased the net long 1,937 contracts wk/wk. The National Average Afternoon Base Hog price was $0.09 lower to $29.99. In the monthly WASDE updates, USDA estimates 2020 pork production at 28.536b lbs. That is up 770m from June’s 27.766 billion lbs. 3Q was 310 million above the June estimate and 4Q was increased 325 million lbs to 7.485 billion. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was up $1.83 to $68.36. Ribs and bellies were lower, but the other primal cuts were higher. USDA estimated the week’s hog slaughter at 2.606m head through Saturday. That is 187k head above the same week last year, and pushed YTD slaughter to within 10k head of last year’s pace.

Aug 20 Hogs closed at $49.875, down $0.350,

Oct 20 Hogs closed at $49.850, down $0.700

Dec 20 Hogs closed at $51.775, down $0.825

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures closed the Friday session with gains of 33 to 42 points in the front months. USDA’s cotton production forecast is 17.5m bales. That is down 2m bales from June on lower acres and lower yields. 2020/21 yield is estimated at 820 lbs/acre, down by 5 from the previous estimate. USDA cut new crop exports by 1m bales, but stocks were still down by 1.2 million from production losses. New crop ending stocks are estimated at 6.8 m bales. The average cash price estimate went up 2 cents to 59 cents. USDA estimated global ending stocks at 102.77 m bales for 2020/21, compared to June’s forecast of 100.56 m bales. The decrease was primarily production cuts. For old crop, USDA estimates World cotton stocks at 100.92 m bales. The CoT report showed net new buying alongside of short covering from cotton spec traders. Managed money’s net position in cotton was 21,520 contracts net long on July 7. Thursday cotton sales on the online cotton trading platform The Seam were a 6 month daily high 16,288 bales. WTD sales on The Seam were 24,053 bales at a wtd av price of 57.40 c/lb. The July 9 Cotlook A index was up by 70 points to 70.15 c/lb. The AWP for cotton for this week is up 135 points to 51.48 cents/lb. The week’s LDP is now down to 0.52 cents.

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 64.71, up 37 points,

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 64.31, up 42 points

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 64.83, up 34 points

May 21 Cotton closed at 65.34, up 33 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Double Digit Losses for Corn

Corn traders sold the fact and took profits ahead of the weekend. Futures closed the Friday session 10 to 12 1/4 cents deep in the red. From the mandatory reporting system, USDA announced a huge 1.365 MMT corn sale to China, split 56/44% old/new crop. USDA’s corn production forecast is 15 billion bushels, down 995 mbu from June due to acreage cuts. The trade was looking for a 954 mbu cut. Global corn production was down 25.27 MMT, reflecting the cut in U.S. production, to 1,163 MMT. Domestic old crop carryout increased 145 mbu to 2.248, which was a smaller than anticipated increase. The 2020/21 corn stocks were dropped by a larger amount than anticipated, with USDA showing 2.648 bbu. The expected cash price for new crop corn was up 15 cents to $3.35/bu. The CFTC’s weekly CoT report showed funds covered 67,922 shorts on the week for a net short position of 141,741 contracts. Over the last 2 weeks managed money covered 119,564 shorts, and spec trader OI was down 18%.

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.40 1/2, down 10 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.37 1/4, down 11 1/2 cents,

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.44 3/4, down 12 1/4 cents,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.55, down 11 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs Lower ahead of Weekend

Front month lean hog futures closed the day with 35 to 82 cent losses in the front months. July contracts traded higher on the day, with a 12 cent move to $45.97. The 2 day lagged CME Lean Hog index for July 8 was down 17 cents to $45.18, a positive basis of $1.13 from the July 8th and an approximate basis of minus 80 cents from today’s close. The Chinese Dalian lean hog futures contract launched a preliminary test round of trading on Friday. The official release date for the contracts has not yet been established. In their weekly update, CFTC reported lean hog spec traders at 6,635 contracts net long. The net new buying interest increased the net long 1,937 contracts wk/wk. The National Average Afternoon Base Hog price was $0.09 lower to $29.99. In the monthly WASDE updates, USDA estimates 2020 pork production at 28.536b lbs. That is up 770m from June’s 27.766 billion lbs. 3Q was 310 million above the June estimate and 4Q was increased 325 million lbs to 7.485 billion. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was up $1.83 to $68.36. Ribs and bellies were lower, but the other primal cuts were higher. USDA estimated the week’s hog slaughter at 2.606m head through Saturday. That is 187k head above the same week last year, and pushed YTD slaughter to within 10k head of last year’s pace.

Aug 20 Hogs closed at $49.875, down $0.350,

Oct 20 Hogs closed at $49.850, down $0.700

Dec 20 Hogs closed at $51.775, down $0.825

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Close at Highs on Day

Live cattle futures closed the day with gains of 65 to 95 cents, which was near the top of the day’s range. Feeder cattle futures progressed triple digits ahead of the weekend. The CME Feeder Cattle index for July 9 was $134.92, up by 23 cents. CFTC reported managed funds were 22,908 contracts net long in cattle on July 7. That was a wk/wk increase of 30%, but spec trader OI was down by 1.5%. Managed money had reduced their net long in feeder cattle on the week to 1,579 contracts. In the monthly WASDE updates, USDA estimates 2020 beef production at 26.934b lbs. That is up from June’s 26.674. The increase was mostly to 3Q, up 105m lbs to 7.02 billion. 4Q production is estimated at 6.935 b lbs. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Friday, widening the Chc/Sel spread to $10.21. Choice boxes were $0.91 stronger to $204.5. Select boxes fell another 54 cents to $194.29. USDA estimated cattle slaughter through Saturday at 664,000 for the week, and 16.516m head on the year. The week’s slaughter is 6,000 head above the year prior, but YTD slaughter is still trailing last year’s pace by 5.6%.

Aug 20 Cattle closed at $100.000, up $0.750,

Oct 20 Cattle closed at $104.575, up $0.650,

Dec 20 Cattle closed at $108.400, up $0.950,

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $135.750, up $1.225

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $137.325, up $1.150

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $138.500, up $1.375

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Gains before Weekend Break

Cotton futures closed the Friday session with gains of 33 to 42 points in the front months. USDA’s cotton production forecast is 17.5m bales. That is down 2m bales from June on lower acres and lower yields. 2020/21 yield is estimated at 820 lbs/acre, down by 5 from the previous estimate. USDA cut new crop exports by 1m bales, but stocks were still down by 1.2 million from production losses. New crop ending stocks are estimated at 6.8 m bales. The average cash price estimate went up 2 cents to 59 cents. USDA estimated global ending stocks at 102.77 m bales for 2020/21, compared to June’s forecast of 100.56 m bales. The decrease was primarily production cuts. For old crop, USDA estimates World cotton stocks at 100.92 m bales. The CoT report showed net new buying alongside of short covering from cotton spec traders. Managed money’s net position in cotton was 21,520 contracts net long on July 7. Thursday cotton sales on the online cotton trading platform The Seam were a 6 month daily high 16,288 bales. WTD sales on The Seam were 24,053 bales at a wtd av price of 57.40 c/lb. The July 9 Cotlook A index was up by 70 points to 70.15 c/lb. The AWP for cotton for this week is up 135 points to 51.48 cents/lb. The week’s LDP is now down to 0.52 cents.

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 64.71, up 37 points,

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 64.31, up 42 points

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 64.83, up 34 points

May 21 Cotton closed at 65.34, up 33 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hog Futures Down at Midday

Hogs are giving back some of yesterday’s triple digit gains. At midday futures are down by 67 to $1.05. The CME Lean Hog index for July 8 was 17 cents lower to $45.18. The Chinese Dalian lean hog futures contract launched a preliminary test round of trading on Friday. The official release date for the contracts has not yet been established. The National Average Afternoon Base Hog price was $0.17 lower to $29.91. In the monthly WASDE updates, USDA estimates 2020 pork production at 28.536b lbs. That is up 770m from June’s 27.766 billion lbs. 3Q was 310 million above the June estimate and 4Q was increased 325 million lbs to 7.485 billion. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value jumped $4.01 to $71.13. All of the primals were higher, led by hams which were $7.98 higher. USDA’s estimate for WTD FI hog slaughter through Thursday is 1.857 head. That compares to 1.867m head last week and 1.902 million from the same week a year ago.

Aug 20 Hogs are at $49.550, down $0.675,

Oct 20 Hogs are at $49.500, down $1.050

Dec 20 Hogs are at $51.700, down $0.900

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Corn Down After Reports

Corn has gone into fast market conditions, down 4 1/2 to 10 cents or more in response to the USDA updates. USDA announced a huge 1.365 MMT corn sale to China this morning. Delivery for the private sale is split 56% old crop and 44% 2020/21. That had been rumored a week ago, and while not traded as bullish then we are seeing some “sell the fact” action. USDA’s corn production forecast is 15 billion bushels, down 995 mbu from June due to acreage cuts. Trade was looking for a 954 mbu cut. On the World stage, USDA cut new crop production 25.27 MMT to 1,163 MMT, but it was entirely from U.S. Domestic old crop carryout increased 145 mbu to 2.248, which was a smaller than anticipated increase. The 2020/21 corn stocks were dropped by a larger amount than anticipated, with USDA showing 2.648 bbu.

Jul 20 Corn is at $3.46 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents,

Sep 20 Corn is at $3.42 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents,

Dec 20 Corn is at $3.50 1/4, down 6 3/4 cents,

Mar 21 Corn is at $3.60, down 6 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market Higher after Report

Report reaction trading in the front month cotton futures has prices 10 to 32 points higher at midday. USDA’s cotton production forecast is 17.5m bales. That is down 2m bales from June on lower acres and lower yields. 2020/21 yield is estimated at 820 lbs/acre, down by 5 from the previous estimate. USDA cut new crop exports by 1m bales, but stocks were still down by 1.2 million from production losses. New crop ending stocks are estimated at 6.8 m bales. The average cash price estimate went up 2 cents to 59 cents. USDA estimated global ending stocks at 102.77 m bales for 2020/21, compared to June’s forecast of 100.56 m bales. The decrease was primarily production cuts. For old crop, USDA estimates World cotton stocks at 100.92 m bales. WTD sales on The Seam were 7,767 bales at a wtd av price of 60.07 c/lb. The July 9 Cotlook A index was up by 70 points to 70.15 c/lb. The AWP for cotton for this week is up 135 points to 51.48 cents/lb. The week’s LDP is now down to 0.52 cents.

Oct 20 Cotton is at 64.60, up 26 points

Dec 20 Cotton is at 64.12, up 23 points

May 21 Cotton is at 65.33, up 32 points

Jul 21 Cotton is at 65.56, up 12 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Ag Market Commentary

Corn has gone into fast market conditions, down 4 1/2 to 10 cents or more in response to the USDA updates. USDA announced a huge 1.365 MMT corn sale to China this morning. Delivery for the private sale is split 56% old crop and 44% 2020/21. That had been rumored a week ago, and while not traded as bullish then we are seeing some “sell the fact” action. USDA’s corn production forecast is 15 billion bushels, down 995 mbu from June due to acreage cuts. Trade was looking for a 954 mbu cut. On the World stage, USDA cut new crop production 25.27 MMT to 1,163 MMT, but it was entirely from U.S. Domestic old crop carryout increased 145 mbu to 2.248, which was a smaller than anticipated increase. The 2020/21 corn stocks were dropped by a larger amount than anticipated, with USDA showing 2.648 bbu.

Jul 20 Corn is at $3.46 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents,

Sep 20 Corn is at $3.42 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents,

Dec 20 Corn is at $3.50 1/4, down 6 3/4 cents,

Mar 21 Corn is at $3.60, down 6 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



In the immediate response to the new supply and demand numbers, soybean futures are down by 3 1/2 to 4 1/4 cents. Soymeal futures are down by $2.10/ton. Soy oil futures are trading 3 points higher at midday. USDA estimates soybean production at 4.135 bbu, which was a smaller than expected increase. Shifting residual use from 4 mbu to a negative 46 mbu, 2019/20 carryout was up to 620 mbu. New crop ending stocks were also up by more than expected, with a 30 mbu bump to 425. USDA raised old crop World bean stocks by 480k MT to 99.7 MMT, and lowered New crop by 1.26 MMT to 95.08. Brazilian old crop bean production was hiked to 126 MMT, larger than any of the published pre-report estimates.

Jul 20 Soybeans are at $8.98, down 1/4 cent,

Aug 20 Soybeans are at $8.92 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 Soybeans are at $8.91 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents,

Nov 20 Soybeans are at $8.97 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents,

Aug 20 Soybean Meal is at $295.20, down $2.10

Aug 20 Soybean Oil is at $28.32, up $0.03

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat is mixed after Chinese buying alongside of the USDA report. SRW futures are up double digits with gains of as much as 16 3/4 cents in July. HRW futures are down by 2 to 5 1/2 cents. MPLS spring wheat futures are fractionally higher at midday. USDA announced a private export sale of 190k MT HRS and 130k MT of HRW to China this morning. Wheat production numbers were bullish relative to June, and exceeded trade expectations. USDA’s July estimate for winter wheat production is 1.218 bbu, down by 48 mbu, trade was looking for an 18 mbu cut. That came via a 33 mbu cut to HRW and a 17 mbu cut for SRW production, traders were looking for 11 and 7 respectively. Spring wheat production was estimated at 550 mbu, which was above the trade average guess of 546. In total 2020/21 U.S. wheat production is forecasted at 1.824 bbu. U.S. ending stocks for 2020/21 are forecasted at 942 mbu, that is up 17 mbu from June. Globally, USDA has World wheat production at 769.31 MMT, which is 4.12 MT below the June estimate. French wheat harvest is 10% complete according to FranceAgriMer. The ministry recently estimated new crop production down 21% yr/yr.

Sep 20 CBOT Wheat is at $5.35 3/4, up 10 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 KCBT Wheat is at $4.55, down 1 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 MGEX Wheat is at $5.27 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Front month cattle futures are trading 27 to 60 cents in the black at midday. Feeder cattle futures are up by as much as 95 cents so far. The CME Feeder Cattle index for July 8 was $133.69, up by $3.54. In the monthly WASDE updates, USDA estimates 2020 beef production at 26.934b lbs. That is up from June’s 26.674. The increase was mostly to 3Q, up 105m lbs to 7.02 billion. 4Q production is estimated at 6.935 b lbs. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this morning, widening the Chc/Sel spread to $10.84. Choice boxes were $1.17 higher, and Select boxes dropped by 91 cents. The week’s cattle slaughter is 474,000 head through Thursday. That trails last week by 10,000 head and is 2k head below the same week last year.

Aug 20 Cattle are at $99.800, up $0.550,

Oct 20 Cattle are at $104.275, up $0.350,

Dec 20 Cattle are at $108.050, up $0.600,

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle are at $135.400, up $0.875

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle are at $136.900, up $0.725

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle are at $138.075, up $0.950

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Hogs are giving back some of yesterday’s triple digit gains. At midday futures are down by 67 to $1.05. The CME Lean Hog index for July 8 was 17 cents lower to $45.18. The Chinese Dalian lean hog futures contract launched a preliminary test round of trading on Friday. The official release date for the contracts has not yet been established. The National Average Afternoon Base Hog price was $0.17 lower to $29.91. In the monthly WASDE updates, USDA estimates 2020 pork production at 28.536b lbs. That is up 770m from June’s 27.766 billion lbs. 3Q was 310 million above the June estimate and 4Q was increased 325 million lbs to 7.485 billion. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value jumped $4.01 to $71.13. All of the primals were higher, led by hams which were $7.98 higher. USDA’s estimate for WTD FI hog slaughter through Thursday is 1.857 head. That compares to 1.867m head last week and 1.902 million from the same week a year ago.

Aug 20 Hogs are at $49.550, down $0.675,

Oct 20 Hogs are at $49.500, down $1.050

Dec 20 Hogs are at $51.700, down $0.900

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Report reaction trading in the front month cotton futures has prices 10 to 32 points higher at midday. USDA’s cotton production forecast is 17.5m bales. That is down 2m bales from June on lower acres and lower yields. 2020/21 yield is estimated at 820 lbs/acre, down by 5 from the previous estimate. USDA cut new crop exports by 1m bales, but stocks were still down by 1.2 million from production losses. New crop ending stocks are estimated at 6.8 m bales. The average cash price estimate went up 2 cents to 59 cents. USDA estimated global ending stocks at 102.77 m bales for 2020/21, compared to June’s forecast of 100.56 m bales. The decrease was primarily production cuts. For old crop, USDA estimates World cotton stocks at 100.92 m bales. WTD sales on The Seam were 7,767 bales at a wtd av price of 60.07 c/lb. The July 9 Cotlook A index was up by 70 points to 70.15 c/lb. The AWP for cotton for this week is up 135 points to 51.48 cents/lb. The week’s LDP is now down to 0.52 cents.

Oct 20 Cotton is at 64.60, up 26 points

Dec 20 Cotton is at 64.12, up 23 points

May 21 Cotton is at 65.33, up 32 points

Jul 21 Cotton is at 65.56, up 12 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat Mixed At Midday

Wheat is mixed after Chinese buying alongside of the USDA report. SRW futures are up double digits with gains of as much as 16 3/4 cents in July. HRW futures are down by 2 to 5 1/2 cents. MPLS spring wheat futures are fractionally higher at midday. USDA announced a private export sale of 190k MT HRS and 130k MT of HRW to China this morning. Wheat production numbers were bullish relative to June, and exceeded trade expectations. USDA’s July estimate for winter wheat production is 1.218 bbu, down by 48 mbu, trade was looking for an 18 mbu cut. That came via a 33 mbu cut to HRW and a 17 mbu cut for SRW production, traders were looking for 11 and 7 respectively. Spring wheat production was estimated at 550 mbu, which was above the trade average guess of 546. In total 2020/21 U.S. wheat production is forecasted at 1.824 bbu. U.S. ending stocks for 2020/21 are forecasted at 942 mbu, that is up 17 mbu from June. Globally, USDA has World wheat production at 769.31 MMT, which is 4.12 MT below the June estimate. French wheat harvest is 10% complete according to FranceAgriMer. The ministry recently estimated new crop production down 21% yr/yr.

Sep 20 CBOT Wheat is at $5.35 3/4, up 10 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 KCBT Wheat is at $4.55, down 1 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 MGEX Wheat is at $5.27 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Bean Market Down at Midday

In the immediate response to the new supply and demand numbers, soybean futures are down by 3 1/2 to 4 1/4 cents. Soymeal futures are down by $2.10/ton. Soy oil futures are trading 3 points higher at midday. USDA estimates soybean production at 4.135 bbu, which was a smaller than expected increase. Shifting residual use from 4 mbu to a negative 46 mbu, 2019/20 carryout was up to 620 mbu. New crop ending stocks were also up by more than expected, with a 30 mbu bump to 425. USDA raised old crop World bean stocks by 480k MT to 99.7 MMT, and lowered New crop by 1.26 MMT to 95.08. Brazilian old crop bean production was hiked to 126 MMT, larger than any of the published pre-report estimates.

Jul 20 Soybeans are at $8.98, down 1/4 cent,

Aug 20 Soybeans are at $8.92 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 Soybeans are at $8.91 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents,

Nov 20 Soybeans are at $8.97 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents,

Aug 20 Soybean Meal is at $295.20, down $2.10

Aug 20 Soybean Oil is at $28.32, up $0.03

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market Up at Midday

Front month cattle futures are trading 27 to 60 cents in the black at midday. Feeder cattle futures are up by as much as 95 cents so far. The CME Feeder Cattle index for July 8 was $133.69, up by $3.54. In the monthly WASDE updates, USDA estimates 2020 beef production at 26.934b lbs. That is up from June’s 26.674. The increase was mostly to 3Q, up 105m lbs to 7.02 billion. 4Q production is estimated at 6.935 b lbs. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this morning, widening the Chc/Sel spread to $10.84. Choice boxes were $1.17 higher, and Select boxes dropped by 91 cents. The week’s cattle slaughter is 474,000 head through Thursday. That trails last week by 10,000 head and is 2k head below the same week last year.

Aug 20 Cattle are at $99.800, up $0.550,

Oct 20 Cattle are at $104.275, up $0.350,

Dec 20 Cattle are at $108.050, up $0.600,

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle are at $135.400, up $0.875

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle are at $136.900, up $0.725

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle are at $138.075, up $0.950

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Market Mixed Heading into Friday Morning

The three U.S. wheat markets were mostly higher on Thursday, and are trading 2 cents either side of UNCH this morning. KC HRW is the weakest. SRW wheat was up the most yesterday with gains of 7 1/4 to 8 3/4 cents in the front months. HRW wheat was UNCH in July and Sept, but the deferred contracts were fractionally higher. HRS wheat futures closed the day with 1 1/2 to 2 3/4 cent gains. Traders estimate USDA will increase 19/20 world ending stocks 1.5 MMT to 297.3 MMT later this morning. U.S. ending stocks for 2020/21 are estimated at 950.2 mbu, that would be up 25 mbu from June if realized. Traders also anticipate USDA to show a 33.3 mbu cut to wheat production. That comes from a 10 mbu cut to HRW and a 14 mbu cut to spring wheat production. USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 326,140 MT of wheat sales, down 22% wk/wk but 15% above the same week last year. SRW wheat was the top seller with 46% of the total. --- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Corn Fractionally Higher

Corn is trading fractionally higher ahead of this morning’s WASDE report release. Prices were 1 1/4 to 3 cents higher yesterday despite a 4 cent per bushel retreat in the afternoon. Ahead of the monthly USDA reports, traders estimate on average a 954 mbu cut to 2020/21 production driven by the June 30 acreage cuts. Old crop carryout is estimated to increase 169 mbu to 2.272 bbu. NMY corn stocks, on the other hand, are estimated at 2.731, which would be down 592 mbu from the previous forecast. The average pre-report estimate for world carryout is 325 MMT, that would be down 12.5 from June if realized. In the weekly Export Sales report, corn export bookings were 599,242 MT (23.6 mbu), with new crop sales of 409,345 MT (16.1 mbu).

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Ag Market Commentary

Corn is trading fractionally higher ahead of this morning’s WASDE report release. Prices were 1 1/4 to 3 cents higher yesterday despite a 4 cent per bushel retreat in the afternoon. Ahead of the monthly USDA reports, traders estimate on average a 954 mbu cut to 2020/21 production driven by the June 30 acreage cuts. Old crop carryout is estimated to increase 169 mbu to 2.272 bbu. NMY corn stocks, on the other hand, are estimated at 2.731, which would be down 592 mbu from the previous forecast. The average pre-report estimate for world carryout is 325 MMT, that would be down 12.5 from June if realized. In the weekly Export Sales report, corn export bookings were 599,242 MT (23.6 mbu), with new crop sales of 409,345 MT (16.1 mbu).

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures around 2 cents per bushel higher this morning, awaiting the supply and demand updates from USDA. On Thursday, soybean futures ceded 3 to 5 cents in the afternoon session, but still closed the day up by 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 cents. Soymeal futures had gains of $3.50 to $3.60/ton. Soy oil futures ended the day down by 26 points. Old crop export sales from the week ending July 2 exceeded estimates as 34.99 mbu were booked. The average pre-report estimate for new crop soy production is for a 29.3 mbu increase to 4.154 bbu. Analysts expect the old crop carry out will be UNCH, with an average estimate of 585.6 mbu. New crop ending stocks, on the other hand, are expected to increase 28.9 mbu to 423.9. Ahead of the official estimate, traders anticipate USDA raising World bean stocks by 400k MT to 96.7 MMT. Yesterday’s Export Sales report showed new crop bean sales were 14.04 mbu. Accumulated new crop bookings are at 49 mbu, which is 181% above new crop bookings from the same week last MY, and 81% of the total fwd sales coming into the 2019/20 MY.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



The three U.S. wheat markets were mostly higher on Thursday, and are trading 2 cents either side of UNCH this morning. KC HRW is the weakest. SRW wheat was up the most yesterday with gains of 7 1/4 to 8 3/4 cents in the front months. HRW wheat was UNCH in July and Sept, but the deferred contracts were fractionally higher. HRS wheat futures closed the day with 1 1/2 to 2 3/4 cent gains. Traders estimate USDA will increase 19/20 world ending stocks 1.5 MMT to 297.3 MMT later this morning. U.S. ending stocks for 2020/21 are estimated at 950.2 mbu, that would be up 25 mbu from June if realized. Traders also anticipate USDA to show a 33.3 mbu cut to wheat production. That comes from a 10 mbu cut to HRW and a 14 mbu cut to spring wheat production. USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 326,140 MT of wheat sales, down 22% wk/wk but 15% above the same week last year. SRW wheat was the top seller with 46% of the total. --- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



After flashing triple digit gains at midday, cattle futures settled back for gains of $0.10 to $0.77. Feeder cattle futures also ceded some midday gains, but still closed 35 to 50 cents higher on the day. The CME Feeder Cattle index for July 8 was $133.69, up by $3.54. USDA reported some limited Thursday cash sales. Trades went $96 to $97 for live basis and $155 to $160 for dressed. From USDA’s weekly Export Sales report, 9,486 MT of beef was sold on the week ending July 2. That was an 8-week low and 56% below the same week last year. Of the week’s sales, 10.5% were to China, but Japan and South Korea were the top purchasers. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower again on Thursday, widening the Chc/Sel spread to $8.76. Choice boxes were down 24 cents, and Select boxes dropped 69 cents. The week’s cattle slaughter is 474,000 head through Thursday. That trails last week by 10,000 head and is 2k head below the same week last year.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Hogs were up by as much as $2.27 at the closing bell on Thursday. August was up the most. The CME Lean Hog index for July 7 was 55 cents lower to $45.35. The National Average Afternoon Base Hog price was back above $30 after a $1.09 increase, at $30.02. The WCB wtd average price was $30.44 this afternoon. USDA reported 31,474 MT of export pork was sold on the week ending July 2. That was down 20% wk/wk but 180% above the same week last year. The weekly report also mentioned 33,532 MT of pork was shipped on the same week, which pushed accumulated shipments to over 1 MMT. The 2019 record export year took until October 10th to breach the 1 MMT threshold. Through July 2, China accounts for 41% of all pork shipped. Last year, they accounted for 23%. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value fell by 4 cents to $67.12. The afternoon primals were mixed. USDA’s estimate for WTD FI hog slaughter through Thursday is 1.857 head. That compares to 1.867m head last week and 1.902 million from the same week a year ago.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton trading overnight resulted in 51 to 73 point declines from the Thursday close. At the Thursday closing bell, cotton futures prices were down by 20 to 23 points. Old crop cotton bookings from the Export Sales report were 43,772 RBs on the week ending July 2. That was down 35% wk/wk and 18% below the same week last year. Total commitments through July 2 (17.03m RBs) are still 11% above last year and the highest since the 2005/06 MY. Old crop sales to China accounted for 50.2% of the total. The Seam reported 4,054 bales sold at an average gross price of 59.26 cents/lb. WTD sales on The Seam were 7,767 bales at a wtd av price of 60.07 c/lb. The July 7 Cotlook A index was down 25 points lower to 69.45 c/lb. The AWP for cotton for this week is up 135 points to 51.48 cents/lb. The week’s LDP is now down to 0.52 cents.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean Market 2 Cents Higher Coming Into Report

Soybean futures around 2 cents per bushel higher this morning, awaiting the supply and demand updates from USDA. On Thursday, soybean futures ceded 3 to 5 cents in the afternoon session, but still closed the day up by 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 cents. Soymeal futures had gains of $3.50 to $3.60/ton. Soy oil futures ended the day down by 26 points. Old crop export sales from the week ending July 2 exceeded estimates as 34.99 mbu were booked. The average pre-report estimate for new crop soy production is for a 29.3 mbu increase to 4.154 bbu. Analysts expect the old crop carry out will be UNCH, with an average estimate of 585.6 mbu. New crop ending stocks, on the other hand, are expected to increase 28.9 mbu to 423.9. Ahead of the official estimate, traders anticipate USDA raising World bean stocks by 400k MT to 96.7 MMT. Yesterday’s Export Sales report showed new crop bean sales were 14.04 mbu. Accumulated new crop bookings are at 49 mbu, which is 181% above new crop bookings from the same week last MY, and 81% of the total fwd sales coming into the 2019/20 MY.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market Basis Not Normal, But Closer

After flashing triple digit gains at midday, cattle futures settled back for gains of $0.10 to $0.77. Feeder cattle futures also ceded some midday gains, but still closed 35 to 50 cents higher on the day. The CME Feeder Cattle index for July 8 was $133.69, up by $3.54. USDA reported some limited Thursday cash sales. Trades went $96 to $97 for live basis and $155 to $160 for dressed. From USDA’s weekly Export Sales report, 9,486 MT of beef was sold on the week ending July 2. That was an 8-week low and 56% below the same week last year. Of the week’s sales, 10.5% were to China, but Japan and South Korea were the top purchasers. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower again on Thursday, widening the Chc/Sel spread to $8.76. Choice boxes were down 24 cents, and Select boxes dropped 69 cents. The week’s cattle slaughter is 474,000 head through Thursday. That trails last week by 10,000 head and is 2k head below the same week last year.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Stronger

Hogs were up by as much as $2.27 at the closing bell on Thursday. August was up the most. The CME Lean Hog index for July 7 was 55 cents lower to $45.35. The National Average Afternoon Base Hog price was back above $30 after a $1.09 increase, at $30.02. The WCB wtd average price was $30.44 this afternoon. USDA reported 31,474 MT of export pork was sold on the week ending July 2. That was down 20% wk/wk but 180% above the same week last year. The weekly report also mentioned 33,532 MT of pork was shipped on the same week, which pushed accumulated shipments to over 1 MMT. The 2019 record export year took until October 10th to breach the 1 MMT threshold. Through July 2, China accounts for 41% of all pork shipped. Last year, they accounted for 23%. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value fell by 4 cents to $67.12. The afternoon primals were mixed. USDA’s estimate for WTD FI hog slaughter through Thursday is 1.857 head. That compares to 1.867m head last week and 1.902 million from the same week a year ago.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market Soft to Begin Friday

Cotton trading overnight resulted in 51 to 73 point declines from the Thursday close. At the Thursday closing bell, cotton futures prices were down by 20 to 23 points. Old crop cotton bookings from the Export Sales report were 43,772 RBs on the week ending July 2. That was down 35% wk/wk and 18% below the same week last year. Total commitments through July 2 (17.03m RBs) are still 11% above last year and the highest since the 2005/06 MY. Old crop sales to China accounted for 50.2% of the total. The Seam reported 4,054 bales sold at an average gross price of 59.26 cents/lb. WTD sales on The Seam were 7,767 bales at a wtd av price of 60.07 c/lb. The July 7 Cotlook A index was down 25 points lower to 69.45 c/lb. The AWP for cotton for this week is up 135 points to 51.48 cents/lb. The week’s LDP is now down to 0.52 cents.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Corn Gains Weaker at Close

After trading with 5 to 7 cent gains at midday, corn backed down and finished the day just 1 1/4 to 3 cents higher. Preliminary OI in July was down to just 1,285 contracts as of Wednesday. There have been no deliveries against July futures reported yet. The national average cash corn price from cmdtyView is $3.29/bu, with ECB corn at a 20 1/4 cent premium to WCB prices. Weekly corn export bookings were at the top end of estimates with 599,242 MT (23.6 mbu). New crop corn export sales were also on the high end of estimates with 409,345 MT (16.1 mbu). NMY commitments are at 169.4 mbu, which exceeds forward bookings from the same time last year by 33%. China’s sold 3.97 MMT of corn from state reserves, which is routine this time of year. Domestic corn prices in the PRC have been elevated on tight supplies. The average selling price was 1,899 yuan/MT (~$6.75/bu).

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.51 1/4, up 3 cents,

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.48 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.57, up 2 3/4 cents,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.66 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Ag Market Commentary

After trading with 5 to 7 cent gains at midday, corn backed down and finished the day just 1 1/4 to 3 cents higher. Preliminary OI in July was down to just 1,285 contracts as of Wednesday. There have been no deliveries against July futures reported yet. The national average cash corn price from cmdtyView is $3.29/bu, with ECB corn at a 20 1/4 cent premium to WCB prices. Weekly corn export bookings were at the top end of estimates with 599,242 MT (23.6 mbu). New crop corn export sales were also on the high end of estimates with 409,345 MT (16.1 mbu). NMY commitments are at 169.4 mbu, which exceeds forward bookings from the same time last year by 33%. China’s sold 3.97 MMT of corn from state reserves, which is routine this time of year. Domestic corn prices in the PRC have been elevated on tight supplies. The average selling price was 1,899 yuan/MT (~$6.75/bu).

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.51 1/4, up 3 cents,

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.48 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.57, up 2 3/4 cents,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.66 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures ceded 3 to 5 cents in the afternoon session, but still closed 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 cents higher in the front months. July soybeans were trading on just 142 contracts (as of Wed) with no deliveries reported yet. The national average soybean cash price from cmdtyView is $8.56, but ECB beans are $8.59 compared to $8.19 in the WCB. Soymeal futures closed with gains of $3.50 to $3.60/ton. Soy oil futures ended the day down by 26 points. Old crop export sales from the week ending July 2 exceeded estimates as 34.99 mbu were booked. New crop sales were below expectations @ just 14.04 mbu. Accumulated new crop bookings are at 49 mbu, which is 181% above new crop bookings from the same week last MY, and 81% of the total fwd sales coming into the 2019/20 MY. China booked 49% of the week’s sales, with 461k MT of old crop bookings and 192k MT of new crop purchases. Chinese new crop commitments are at a multi-year high for this date. Soymeal sales were 124,392 MT on the week ending July 2. Meal sales were primarily to Mexico and Colombia. Bean oil bookings on the week were just above pre-report estimates with 28,908 MT sold.

Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.98 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents,

Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $8.96 1/2, up 4 cents,

Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $8.95 1/4, up 4 1/2 cents,

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $9.01 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents,

Aug 20 Soybean Meal closed at $297.30, up $3.50

Aug 20 Soybean Oil closed at $28.29, down $0.26

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



The U.S. wheat markets were mostly higher on Thursday. SRW wheat was up the most with gains of 7 1/4 to 8 3/4 cents in the front months. HRW wheat was UNCH in July and Sept, but the deferred contracts were fractionally higher. HRS wheat futures closed the day with 1 1/2 to 2 3/4 cent gains. There were 26 more deliveries against HRW futures, month to date deliveries are at 238 contracts. SRW futures had 84 deliveries yesterday, for an accumulated total of 675 against July. USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 326,140 MT of wheat sales, that is down 22% wk/wk but 15% above the same week last year. SRW wheat was the top seller with 46% of the total. Accumulated SRW commitments are 29% behind last year’s pace through the first 5 weeks of the MY. The weekly update also showed the 75,000 MT of 2021/22 SRW bookings were canceled. Traders estimate USDA will increase 19/20 world ending stocks 1.5 MMT to 297.3 MMT on Friday.

Sep 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.25, up 8 1/2 cents,

Sep 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.56 3/4, unch,

Sep 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.26, up 2 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



After triple digit gains at midday, front month cattle futures fell back to gains of $0.10 to $0.77 by the close. Feeder cattle futures also ceded some midday gains, but still closed 35 to 50 cents higher on the day. The CME Feeder Cattle index for July 8 was $133.69, up by $3.54. USDA reported some limited Thursday cash sales. Trades went $96 to $97 for live basis and $155 to $157 for dressed. The bulk of the sales reported by USDA is mostly near $95 so far. From USDA’s weekly Export Sales report, 9,486 MT of beef was sold on the week ending July 2. That was an 8-week low and 56% below the same week last year. Of the week’s sales, 10.5% were to China, but Japan and South Korea were the top purchasers. The week’s 15k MT shipped brought 2020 shipments to 396,923 MT. That is 0.33% above 2019’s total through July 4. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower again on Thursday, widening the Chc/Sel spread to $8.76. Choice boxes were down 24 cents, and Select boxes dropped 69 cents. The week’s cattle slaughter is 474,000 head through Thursday. That trails last week by 10,000 head and is 2k head below the same week last year.

Aug 20 Cattle closed at $99.250, up $0.100,

Oct 20 Cattle closed at $103.925, up $0.425,

Dec 20 Cattle closed at $107.450, up $0.775,

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $134.525, up $0.475

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $136.175, up $0.500

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $137.125, up $0.350

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Hogs were up by as much as $2.27 at the closing bell on Thursday. August was up the most on the day but closed 90 cents off the high. April ’21 hogs closed 7 cents in the red. The CME Lean Hog index for July 7 was 55 cents lower to $45.35. The National Average Afternoon Base Hog price was back above $30 after a $1.09 increase, at $30.02. The WCB wtd average price was $30.44 this afternoon. USDA reported 31,474 MT of export pork was sold on the week ending July 2. That was down 20% wk/wk but 180% above the same week last year. The weekly report also mentioned 33,532 MT of pork was shipped on the same week, which pushed accumulated shipments to over 1 MMT. The 2019 record export year took until October 10th to breach the 1 MMT threshold. Through July 2, China accounts for 41% of all pork shipped. Last year, the nation was the destination for 23% of pork shipments. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value fell by 4 cents to $67.12. The afternoon primals were mixed. USDA’s estimate for WTD FI hog slaughter through Thursday is 1.857 head. That compares to 1.867m head last week and 1.902 million from the same week a year ago.

Aug 20 Hogs closed at $50.225, up $2.275,

Oct 20 Hogs closed at $50.550, up $1.750

Dec 20 Hogs closed at $52.600, up $1.300

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton prices were down by 20 to 23 points on Thursday, save for in delivery July which dropped 132 points. Old crop cotton bookings from the Export Sales report were 43,772 RBs on the week ending July 2. That was down 35% wk/wk and 18% below the same week last year. Total commitments through July 2 (17.03m RBs) are still 11% above last year and the highest since the 2005/06 MY. Old crop sales to China accounted for 50.2% of the total. The Seam reported 4,054 bales sold at an average gross price of 59.26 cents/lb. WTD sales on The Seam were 7,767 bales at a wtd av price of 60.07 c/lb. The July 7 Cotlook A index was down 25 points lower to 69.45 c/lb. The AWP for cotton for this week is up 135 points to 51.48 cents/lb. The week’s LDP is now 52 points.

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 64.34, down 23 points,

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 63.89, down 27 points

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 64.49, down 20 points

May 21 Cotton closed at 65.01, down 20 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat Closes in Black on Thursday

The U.S. wheat markets were mostly higher on Thursday. SRW wheat was up the most with gains of 7 1/4 to 8 3/4 cents in the front months. HRW wheat was UNCH in July and Sept, but the deferred contracts were fractionally higher. HRS wheat futures closed the day with 1 1/2 to 2 3/4 cent gains. There were 26 more deliveries against HRW futures, month to date deliveries are at 238 contracts. SRW futures had 84 deliveries yesterday, for an accumulated total of 675 against July. USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 326,140 MT of wheat sales, that is down 22% wk/wk but 15% above the same week last year. SRW wheat was the top seller with 46% of the total. Accumulated SRW commitments are 29% behind last year’s pace through the first 5 weeks of the MY. The weekly update also showed the 75,000 MT of 2021/22 SRW bookings were canceled. Traders estimate USDA will increase 19/20 world ending stocks 1.5 MMT to 297.3 MMT on Friday.

Sep 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.25, up 8 1/2 cents,

Sep 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.56 3/4, unch,

Sep 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.26, up 2 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hog Market Gains Triple Digits

Hogs were up by as much as $2.27 at the closing bell on Thursday. August was up the most on the day but closed 90 cents off the high. April ’21 hogs closed 7 cents in the red. The CME Lean Hog index for July 7 was 55 cents lower to $45.35. The National Average Afternoon Base Hog price was back above $30 after a $1.09 increase, at $30.02. The WCB wtd average price was $30.44 this afternoon. USDA reported 31,474 MT of export pork was sold on the week ending July 2. That was down 20% wk/wk but 180% above the same week last year. The weekly report also mentioned 33,532 MT of pork was shipped on the same week, which pushed accumulated shipments to over 1 MMT. The 2019 record export year took until October 10th to breach the 1 MMT threshold. Through July 2, China accounts for 41% of all pork shipped. Last year, the nation was the destination for 23% of pork shipments. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value fell by 4 cents to $67.12. The afternoon primals were mixed. USDA’s estimate for WTD FI hog slaughter through Thursday is 1.857 head. That compares to 1.867m head last week and 1.902 million from the same week a year ago.

Aug 20 Hogs closed at $50.225, up $2.275,

Oct 20 Hogs closed at $50.550, up $1.750

Dec 20 Hogs closed at $52.600, up $1.300

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Close off Highs

After triple digit gains at midday, front month cattle futures fell back to gains of $0.10 to $0.77 by the close. Feeder cattle futures also ceded some midday gains, but still closed 35 to 50 cents higher on the day. The CME Feeder Cattle index for July 8 was $133.69, up by $3.54. USDA reported some limited Thursday cash sales. Trades went $96 to $97 for live basis and $155 to $157 for dressed. The bulk of the sales reported by USDA is mostly near $95 so far. From USDA’s weekly Export Sales report, 9,486 MT of beef was sold on the week ending July 2. That was an 8-week low and 56% below the same week last year. Of the week’s sales, 10.5% were to China, but Japan and South Korea were the top purchasers. The week’s 15k MT shipped brought 2020 shipments to 396,923 MT. That is 0.33% above 2019’s total through July 4. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower again on Thursday, widening the Chc/Sel spread to $8.76. Choice boxes were down 24 cents, and Select boxes dropped 69 cents. The week’s cattle slaughter is 474,000 head through Thursday. That trails last week by 10,000 head and is 2k head below the same week last year.

Aug 20 Cattle closed at $99.250, up $0.100,

Oct 20 Cattle closed at $103.925, up $0.425,

Dec 20 Cattle closed at $107.450, up $0.775,

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $134.525, up $0.475

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $136.175, up $0.500

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $137.125, up $0.350

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Closes Lower on Thursday

Cotton prices were down by 20 to 23 points on Thursday, save for in delivery July which dropped 132 points. Old crop cotton bookings from the Export Sales report were 43,772 RBs on the week ending July 2. That was down 35% wk/wk and 18% below the same week last year. Total commitments through July 2 (17.03m RBs) are still 11% above last year and the highest since the 2005/06 MY. Old crop sales to China accounted for 50.2% of the total. The Seam reported 4,054 bales sold at an average gross price of 59.26 cents/lb. WTD sales on The Seam were 7,767 bales at a wtd av price of 60.07 c/lb. The July 7 Cotlook A index was down 25 points lower to 69.45 c/lb. The AWP for cotton for this week is up 135 points to 51.48 cents/lb. The week’s LDP is now 52 points.

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 64.34, down 23 points,

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 63.89, down 27 points

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 64.49, down 20 points

May 21 Cotton closed at 65.01, down 20 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Beans Lose Steam but Still Green

Soybean futures ceded 3 to 5 cents in the afternoon session, but still closed 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 cents higher in the front months. July soybeans were trading on just 142 contracts (as of Wed) with no deliveries reported yet. The national average soybean cash price from cmdtyView is $8.56, but ECB beans are $8.59 compared to $8.19 in the WCB. Soymeal futures closed with gains of $3.50 to $3.60/ton. Soy oil futures ended the day down by 26 points. Old crop export sales from the week ending July 2 exceeded estimates as 34.99 mbu were booked. New crop sales were below expectations @ just 14.04 mbu. Accumulated new crop bookings are at 49 mbu, which is 181% above new crop bookings from the same week last MY, and 81% of the total fwd sales coming into the 2019/20 MY. China booked 49% of the week’s sales, with 461k MT of old crop bookings and 192k MT of new crop purchases. Chinese new crop commitments are at a multi-year high for this date. Soymeal sales were 124,392 MT on the week ending July 2. Meal sales were primarily to Mexico and Colombia. Bean oil bookings on the week were just above pre-report estimates with 28,908 MT sold.

Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.98 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents,

Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $8.96 1/2, up 4 cents,

Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $8.95 1/4, up 4 1/2 cents,

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $9.01 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents,

Aug 20 Soybean Meal closed at $297.30, up $3.50

Aug 20 Soybean Oil closed at $28.29, down $0.26

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Corn Futures Gaining at Midday

Corn is trading 4 1/4 to 7 3/4 cents higher at midday. July futures are trading near $3.56/bu with no deliveries from weakness in cash. The national average cash corn price from cmdtyView is $3.29/bu, with ECB corn at a 20 1/4 cent premium to WCB prices. Weekly corn bookings were at the top end of estimates with 599,242 MT (23.6 mbu). New crop corn export sales were also on the high end of estimates with 409,345 MT (16.1 mbu). NMY commitments are at 169.4 mbu, which exceeds forward bookings from the same time last year by 33%. Argentina’s corn harvest was 81.7% complete through July 8. BAGE also reported yields are averaging 8.4 MT/HA (133.8 bpa) and maintains the 50 MMT production forecast. Brazil is reportedly 27% harvested for this year’s second crop. CONAB lowered their corn production forecast to 100.56 MMT, with a 0.7 MMT cut to second crop. Traders anticipate the July WASDE will also cut Brazil’s production, with an average estimate of 100.4 MMT down 0.6 from June. China’s sold 3.97 MMT of corn from state reserves. Domestic corn prices in the PRC have been elevated on tight supplies. The average selling price was 1,899 yuan/MT (~$6.75/bu).

Jul 20 Corn is at $3.56, up 7 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 Corn is at $3.53 1/2, up 7 1/4 cents,

Dec 20 Corn is at $3.60 3/4, up 6 1/2 cents,

Mar 21 Corn is at $3.70 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Bean Market Higher at Midday

Soybean futures are up 7 1/4 to 8 cents per bushel in the front months. July soybeans are trading near $9.03 with no deliveries reported as of yet. The national average soybean cash price from cmdtyView is $8.56, but ECB beans are $8.59 compared to $8.19 in the WCB. Soymeal futures are $4.40 to $4.70/ton higher at midday. So far soy oil futures are 18 points lower in August and Sept, but up by 36 points in July. Old crop bean bookings from the week ending July 2 exceeded estimates as 34.99 mbu were sold. New crop sales were below expectations with just 14.04 mbu booked. Accumulated new crop bookings are at 49 mbu, which is 181% above new crop bookings from the same week last MY, and 81% of the total fwd sales coming into the 2019/20 MY. China booked 49% of the week’s sales, with 461k MT of old crop bookings and 192k MT of new crop purchases. Soymeal sales were 124,392 MT on the week ending July 2. Meal sales were primarily to Mexico and Colombia. Bean oil bookings on the week were just above pre-report estimates with 28,908 MT sold. A pre-report poll of analysts suggests traders expect a 0.7 MMT cut to 123.3 MMT for Brazil’s production. CONAB’s July estimate is 120.9 MMT.

Jul 20 Soybeans are at $9.02 3/4, up 8 cents,

Aug 20 Soybeans are at $8.99 3/4, up 7 1/4 cents,

Sep 20 Soybeans are at $8.98 3/4, up 8 cents,

Nov 20 Soybeans are at $9.05, up 7 3/4 cents,

Aug 20 Soybean Meal is at $298.20, up $4.40

Aug 20 Soybean Oil is at $28.37, down $0.18

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Up Triple Digits

Front month fats are $0.95 to $1.40 higher so far. Gains in Dec contracts are the strongest, trading near $108.07. Feeder cattle futures are also triple digits higher at midday with gains of as much as $1.32. The July 6 Feeder Cattle index was $130.13. Cash cattle sales on Wednesday were mostly at $95, with limited IA and CO activity @ $99-$100. USDA confirmed cash sales this week are mostly $95 so far, with the full range $90-$101.50. From USDA’s weekly Export Sales report, 9,486 MT of beef was sold on the week ending July 2. That was an 8-week low and 56% below the same week last year. Of the week’s sales, 10.5% were to China, but Japan and South Korea were the top purchasers on the week. The week’s 15k MT shipped brought 2020 shipments to 396,923 MT. That is 0.33% above 2019’s total through July 4. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower again on Thursday morning, widening the Chc/Sel spread to $8.72. Choice boxes were down 45 cents, and Select boxes dropped 86 cents. The week’s cattle slaughter is 354,000 head through Wednesday. That trails last week by 9,000 head and is 3k head below the same week last year.

Aug 20 Cattle are at $100.325, up $1.175,

Oct 20 Cattle are at $104.650, up $1.150,

Dec 20 Cattle are at $108.075, up $1.400,

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle are at $135.300, up $1.250

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle are at $136.775, up $1.100

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle are at $137.900, up $1.125

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Gains Persist

Domestic wheat markets are trying for another double digit gaining day, with SRW leading the way. Chicago wheat futures are 8 1/2 to 13 1/2 cents higher so far. HRW wheat is up by 5 to 6 1/2 cents. MPLS wheat is trailing with gains of 3 to 4 cents. There were 26 more deliveries against HRW futures, month to date deliveries are at 238 contracts. SRW futures had 84 deliveries yesterday, for an accumulated total of 675 against July. Black Sea wheat futures traded the highest price since June 4 on concerns about poor yields in early harvested Russian fields. USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 326,140 MT of wheat sales, that is down 22% wk/wk but 15% above the same week last year. SRW wheat was the top seller with 46% of the total. Accumulated SRW commitments are 29% behind last year’s pace through the first 5 weeks of the MY. The weekly update also showed the 75,000 MT of 2021/22 SRW bookings were canceled. Traders estimate USDA will increase 19/20 world ending stocks 1.5 MMT to 297.3 MMT on Friday.

Sep 20 CBOT Wheat is at $5.28 1/2, up 12 cents,

Sep 20 KCBT Wheat is at $4.63 1/4, up 6 1/2 cents,

Sep 20 MGEX Wheat is at $5.27 1/4, up 4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market Mixed to Mostly Lower

Cotton futures are firm to lower at midday. Dec through May futures are within 5 points of UNCH, while Oct and near expiration July are deeper in the red with 17 and 242 point losses respectively. Old crop cotton bookings from the Export Sales report were 43,772 RBs on the week ending July 2. That was down 35% wk/wk and 18% below the same week last year. Total commitments through July 2 (17.03m RBs) are still 11% above last year and the highest since the 2005/06 MY. Old crop sales to China accounted for 50.2% of the total. Tuesday sales on the Seam added 1,744 bales to the week’s total. The average gross price was 60.61 cents/lb. CONAB reported Brazilian cotton harvest at 9% complete. The June WASDE forecast for Brazilian cotton production is 13.2m bales. The July 7 Cotlook A index was down 25 points lower to 69.45 c/lb. The AWP for cotton is 50.13 cents/lb, and the LDP is 1.87 cents, both will be updated after the close.

Oct 20 Cotton is at 64.4, down 17 points,

Dec 20 Cotton is at 64.13, down 3 points,

Mar 21 Cotton is at 64.68, down 1 point,

May 21 Cotton is at 65.26, down 5 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management