News Source: BRUG

Triple Digit Bounce in Hogs

Piglets napping

Front month lean hog futures went into the weekend with $1.60 to $3.10 gains. For the July contract, that limited the week’s loss to just 8 cents. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price for Friday afternoon was $120.23 after a $0.59 drop. The ECB price was withheld for confidentiality while WCB was quoted at $124.24. The CME Lean Hog Index was $110.74 on 6/21, up by 29 cents.  

Lean hog spec traders were 28,814 contracts net long as of 6/21 according to the CFTC. That was a 9,982 contract stronger net position wk/wk, mainly driven by short covering. 

USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 25,386 MT of pork was sold during the week that ended 6/16. FAS data marked that as 10% below the 4-week average. Mexico was the top buyer with 15.2k MT booked. Pork shipments were 28,853 MT during the week, bringing the YTD total to 711,154 MT. That trails last year’s record by 24%.  

Pork cutout futures went into the weekend $1 to $2.67 higher. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value for Friday afternoon was $2.43 higher to $112.20. USDA has the FI hog slaughter estimated at 2.304m head for the week through Saturday. That is down 68k head from the week prior and 50k head below the same week last year. 

Jul 22 Hogs  closed at $110.925, up $2.375,

Aug 22 Hogs  closed at $106.775, up $3.100

Jul 22 Pork Cutout  closed at $111.850, up $1.000,

Soy Bounces into Weekend

Soybeans emerging in the spring

The relief rally got the soy market back off the floor ahead of the weekend. Soybeans closed 5 3/4 to 17 1/2 cents higher in the front months – but closed a dime off the highs. From Friday to Friday, November soybeans dropped $1.13 1/4 per bushel. Meal prices ended the day $4.20 to $5.90 higher. Soybean oil prices closed 125 to 204 points in the black. USDA reported the average cash B100 prices were $6.97/gal in IA during the week of 6/24 – down 57 c/gal wk/wk. 

The Commitment of Traders report had managed money traders 154,413 contracts net long in soybeans as of 6/21. That was an 8.7k contract reduction through the week as the specs closed longs and added a few new shorts. The commercial net position shrank by 10.5k contracts to 232,854 as 5k shorts were closed and 5k end user long hedges were added. For the products, CFTC reported managed money as 85,909 contracts net long in meal and 50,886 contracts net long in BO. Those were 7,924 contracts stronger and 12,110 weaker from last week respectively. 

Weekly old crop soybean export sales were marked at 29,348 MT from the FAS data. That was a MY low, but matched the range of estimates. USDA reported 494,055 MT were shipped during the week. That was down 30% from last week but was double the same week last season. The 51.2 MMT shipped MYTD makes up 87% of USDA’s forecast. For new crop, the weekly report had 264,978 MT sold. That was also in-line with estimates and set the forward book at 13.4 MMT. 

For the products, USDA reported soymeal bookings were a net 8,248 MT of cancelations for 21/22 delivery and a net 42,325 MT of new sales for 22/23 delivery. The trade was looking for 100-300k MT of 21/22 soymeal sales going into the report. BO bookings were 1,376 MT during the week that ended 6/16. That was near the low end of the expected range. MYTD exports for meal were 8.67 MMT through 6/16 and 602,772 MT for soybean oil. 

Jul 22 Soybeans  closed at $16.10 3/4, up 17 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $15.53 7/8, up 13 3/8 cents,

Aug 22 Soybeans  closed at $15.20 3/4, up 13 1/2 cents,

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.24 1/4, up 8 3/4 cents,

New Crop Cash  was $13.73 1/1, up 8 1/2 cents,

Wheat Closed Red after Failed Rally

Wheat bence-balla-schottner-b1FS5jQrsLo-unsplash

Wheats initially tried to bounce into the weekend, but ended the day with double digit losses. CBT SRW went home 12 1/4 to 13 3/4 cents in the red on Friday, with July having closed $1.10 1/2 below last week. KC HRW ended the day 12 1/2 to 13 cents lower, with July down $1.12 1/2 for the week. Minneapolis spring wheat futures closed 9 1/4 to 10 1/4 cents lower on Friday. The Weekly drop in July was 98 3/4 cents. 

CoT data released after the close showed wheat spec traders were just 3,935 contracts net long in SRW after a week of long liquidation. The group was 26k contracts net long in mid-May. In KC wheat the funds were adding shorts through the week for a 3,792 contract reduced net long of 32,594 contracts. Spring wheat spec traders were 12,439 contracts net long on 6/21. That was down by 752 contracts wk/wk. 

The weekly Export Sales data showed 477,776 MT of wheat was sold during the week of 6/16. Japan and Mexico were the top buyers, each with about 163k MT. That was up 57% from the week prior but was 10% lower yr/yr. USDA reported 336,344 MT of wheat exports during the same week, setting the pace at 918,503 MT through the first 2+ weeks of data. 

Day 9 of the KS wheat harvest reports were mostly Central West. Yield reports were much better with 35-80 bpa near Scott County with solid protein levels. A report from Wichita County said yields were near 64 bpa. Ness reported lower 25-50 bpa yields and 11% protein having missed some of the early spring rains. 

Jul 22 CBOT Wheat  closed at $9.23 3/4, down 13 1/2 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  was $8.66 5/8, down 13 1/8 cents,

Jul 22 KCBT Wheat  closed at $9.92 1/2, down 12 1/2 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  was $9.45 5/8, down 16 1/4 cents,

Jul 22 MGEX Wheat  closed at $10.70 3/4, down 9 3/4 cents,

Sep 22 MGEX Wheat  closed at $10.70 1/2, down 9 1/4 cents,

Cotton Drops Hard into Weekend

Cotton Plant with Multiple Pieces

The cotton market continued its selloff with another triple digit Friday loss. July, now in deliveries with no limits, fell 3,256 points or nearly 24%. That took the price to $1.03 76/100 a level not seen since the turn of the calendar. New crop futures were also 396 to 421 points in the red at the close. The July to December premium is now just 5.71 cents/lb. December cotton ended the week with a 20.24 cent loss with the first sub $1 close since 1/28/22. 

CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money firms were closing longs through the week that ended 6/21. That reduced the group’s net long by 2,140 contracts to 61,110. Commercial cotton traders slashed their open interest by 14,988 contracts (7.9%) through the week, reducing their net short by 5.7k contracts to 98.9k. That was their weakest net short since August of 2020. 

FAS data showed 16,207 RBs of cotton was sold for export during the week that ended 6/16. That was another MY low and was down 80% from the same week last year. New crop cotton bookings were up 86% from the same week last year with 277k RBs added to the forward book. The total forward commitments were 4.02m RBs as of 6/16, a 75% increase yr/yr. As for old crop exports, the weekly data showed 371,867 RBs took the season’s total to 11.146m RBs. That is down 17% but compares to the 44% lag yr/yr in January. 

The Cotlook A index fell another 6 cents on 6/23 to 150.50 cents. USDA lowered the Adjusted World Price for cotton by 4.52 cents to 135.95 c/lb.  

Jul 22 Cotton  closed at 103.76, down 3256 points,

Dec 22 Cotton  closed at 98.05, down 396 points,

Mar 23 Cotton  closed at 93.52, down 421 points

Cattle Close Friday Mixed Mostly Lower

Brown Cow in Field(1)

Live cattle futures ended the day with gains limited to 17 cents and front month losses limited to 50 cents. Feeder cattle futures went home with $1.55 to $2.35 losses on Friday as feed cousts rebounded. USDA reported the bulk of Southern cash trade was near $137 this week with Northern cattle trade from $145 to $150. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $165.23 on 6/23, up by 2 cents. 

CFTC reported managed money funds were 39,142 contracts net long in cattle as of 6/21. That was a 7,216 contract stronger net long after another week of short covering. In feeders the specs were 22 contracts less net short to 3,531. 

The monthly Cattle on Feed report showed 11.846m head of cattle were in 1,000+ head capacity feedlots on June 1. That was up 1.21% from June 2021, slightly lower than the 1.5% increase expected. May placements were 1.869m head, a 2.15% dip yr/yr compared to the 0.2% fewer expected. Marketings were 2.35% higher with 1.914m head – the trade was looking for 1.926m. 

Export Sales data from the week that ended 6/16 showed 11,172 MT of beef were booked. That was the lowest weekly sale since December. Exports were also down 4% form the week at 19,050 MT. Accumulated beef exports are still at a record pace of 441,573 MT through 6/16. 

Wholesale Boxed Beef prices in the Friday PM report were 32 cents higher in Choice and 8 cents higher in Select. USDA estimates the FI cattle slaughter for the week as 666k head through Saturday. That is down 1k head from last week, but 6k head more than the same week last year. 

Jun 22 Cattle  closed at $135.350, up $0.100,

Aug 22 Cattle  closed at $133.375, down $0.500,

Oct 22 Cattle  closed at $139.750, down $0.250,

Aug 22 Feeder Cattle  closed at $172.500, down $2.350

Sep 22 Feeder Cattle  closed at $175.075, down $1.775

Friday Recovery in Corn Market

young spring field with sprouts of corn

The corn market ended the week with double digit new crop gains to a 3 1/2 cent gain in July. For the full week, December corn was down by 57 cents. 

Data from the EIA is still delayed due to a systems issue. USDA reported the weekly average corn oil prices ranged 75.7 to 74.83 c/lb regionally through the week that ended 6/24. That compares to last week’s 76.2 to 77.5 cent prices. Cash ethanol prices also came down 7-9 cents/gal to $2.61-$2.77/gal. DDGS FOB prices were $300-$308/ton in the Gulf, compared to $322 in the PNW and $290-$302 in the Gulf last week. 

Weekly CFTC data showed managed money traders were closing positions through the week of 6/21. The 20.7k fewer spec contracts reduced their net long by 12,921 to 265,264. Commercial corn traders closed 28.7k short hedges reducing their net short to 565,520 contracts. 

USDA reported old crop corn sales were 671,919 MT from the week that ended 6/16. That marked a 7-week high and the trade was looking for less than 600k MT going in. Export shipments of 1.147 MMT brough the season’s total to 50.216 MMT. That is 80.7% of USDA’s forecast. New crop sales were 358,407 MT from the week, which was mid-range of estimates and brought the forward book to 6.257 MMT. 

Jul 22 Corn  closed at $7.50 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $7.54 1/2, up 3 7/8 cents,

Sep 22 Corn  closed at $6.82 3/4, up 16 cents,

Dec 22 Corn  closed at $6.74, up 18 1/2 cents,

New Crop Cash  was $6.57, up 19 1/4 cents,

July Cotton Dropping for FND

Cotton - amber-martin-9pvTSsNV2T4-unsplash

With the no limit trading during the deliveries, July cotton is down 20 c/lb. The new crop contracts are trading 102 to 388 points in the red so far. 

FAS data showed 16,207 RBs of cotton was sold for export during the week that ended 6/16. That was another MY low and was down 80% from the same week last year. New crop cotton bookings were up 86% from the same week last year with 277k RBs added to the forward book. The total forward commitments were 4.02m RBs as of 6/16, a 75% increase yr/yr. As for old crop exports, the weekly data showed 371,867 RBs took the season’s total to 11.146m RBs. That is down 17% but compares to the 44% lag yr/yr in January. 

The Cotlook A index fell another 6 cents on 6/23 to 150.50 cents. USDA lowered the Adjusted World Price for cotton by 4.52 cents to 135.95 c/lb.  

Jul 22 Cotton  is at 115.5, down 2082 points,

Dec 22 Cotton  is at 98.8, down 321 points,

Mar 23 Cotton  is at 94.1, down 363 points

Soybean Prices Working Higher

soya-83087_1280

Some relief ahead of the weekend has the soybean market back up by 10 3/4 to 25 cents. July is up the most, with option expiration at the close – the 1620 seems to be the most likely pin play. Meal and soy oil futures are also recovering with $5.70 to $8/ton and 154 to 219 point gains respectively. USDA reported the average cash B100 prices were $6.97/gal in IA during the week of 6/24 – down 57 c/gal wk/wk. 

Weekly old crop soybean export sales were marked at 29,348 MT from the FAS data. That was a MY low, but matched the range of estimates. USDA reported 494,055 MT were shipped during the week. That was down 30% from last week but was double the same week last season. The 51.2 MMT shipped MYTD makes up 87% of USDA’s forecast. For new crop, the weekly report had 264,978 MT sold. That was also in-line with estimates and set the forward book at 13.4 MMT. 

For the products, USDA reported soymeal bookings were a net 8,248 MT of cancelations for 21/22 delivery and a net 42,325 MT of new sales for 22/23 delivery. The trade was looking for 100-300k MT of 21/22 soymeal sales going into the report. BO bookings were 1,376 MT during the week that ended 6/16. That was near the low end of the expected range. MYTD exports for meal were 8.67 MMT through 6/16 and 602,772 MT for soybean oil. 

Updated estimates from the International Grains Council show a 4 MMT increase to 22/23 global production – now at 387 MMT. Soybean ending stocks grew by 4 MMT as well from their last month estimate to now 13 MMT above 21/22. 

Jul 22 Soybeans  are at $16.17 3/4, up 24 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash   is at $15.61 7/8, up 21 3/8 cents,

Aug 22 Soybeans  are at $15.27 1/2, up 20 1/4 cents,

Nov 22 Soybeans  are at $14.29 3/4, up 14 1/4 cents,

New Crop Cash   is at $13.79 5/8, up 14 1/8 cents,

Pre CoF Positioning in Cattle

Young Cows in Pen Together

Front month live cattle futures are trading mixed so far within 35 cents of UNCH. The June and Feb contracts are holding onto earlier session gains while the fall delivery months are trading lower. There have been 25 deliveries issued for June heifers, but they are being retendered before scheduling. USDA mentioned $2-3 higher cash trade in the WCB at $150 on Thursday. NE sales were steady from $145-$148, while the Southern bulk price for the week so far has been ~$4 lower to $137. Front month feeder cattle futures are trading with triple digit weakness so far, as August is down $2.27. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $165.23 on 6/23, up by 2 cents. 

Going into the NASS Cattle on Feed report, the trade is looking to see a 1.5% yr/yr increase to June 1’s cattle on feed inventory. Placements are expected to be 0.2% below May ’21, while the average trade guess for marketings is 3% higher. 

Export Sales data from the week that ended 6/16 showed 11,172 MT of beef were booked. That was the lowest weekly sale since December. Exports were also down 4% form the week at 19,050 MT. Accumulated beef exports are still at a record pace of 441,573 MT through 6/16. 

Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were up by 45 cents in Choice and 19 cents in Select. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter was 498k head through Thursday. That is 3k head above last week and 473k head. 

Jun 22 Cattle  are at $135.475, up $0.225,

Aug 22 Cattle  are at $133.650, down $0.225,

Oct 22 Cattle  are at $140.000, unch,

Aug 22 Feeder Cattle  are at $172.750, down $2.100

Sep 22 Feeder Cattle  are at $175.100, down $1.750

Wheats Red at Midday

Wheat beth-macdonald-1OaAaZBpRDE-unsplash

Wheat futures are off their early session highs and turning red into Friday’s midday. Chicago SRW is fractionally mixed to a penny lower. KC wheat futures are 4 to 5 cents in the red so far. MPLS spring wheat is fractionally to 6 3/4 cents in the red at midday. July wheat options expire at the close. 

The weekly Export Sales data showed 477,776 MT of wheat was sold during the week of 6/16. Japan and Mexico were the top buyers, each with about 163k MT. That was up 57% from the week prior but was 10% lower yr/yr. USDA reported 336,344 MT of wheat exports during the same week, setting the pace at 918,503 MT through the first 2+ weeks of data. 

Day 9 of the KS wheat harvest reports were mostly Central West. Yield reports were much better with 35-80 bpa near Scott County with solid protein levels. A report from Wichita County said yields were near 64 bpa. Ness reported lower 25-50 bpa yields and 11% protein having missed some of the early spring rains. 

BAGE lowered Argentina’s wheat planted area by 1m HA to 6.3m HA. 

IGC estimates for global wheat production fell 11 MMT from May’s figure to 769 MMT. That is now down 12 MMT yr/yr and the lightest since 19/20. Carryout was reduced by 6 MMT as consumption also dropped by 5. IGC had global 22/23 wheat stocks estimated at 271 MMT, compared to 282 MMT last year. 

Jul 22 CBOT Wheat  is at $9.37 3/4, down 1 cent,

Cash SRW Wheat  is at $8.79 3/4, up 0 cent,

Jul 22 KCBT Wheat  is at $10.01 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  is at $9.54 3/4, down 7 1/8 cents,

Jul 22 MGEX Wheat  is at $10.77 1/2, down 3 cents,

Sep 22 MGEX Wheat  is at $10.76 3/4, down 3 cents,

Hogs Higher by Triple Digits

Pig grazing in field

Lean hog futures are back up with triple digit gains of as much as $3.25 through Friday’s midday. The July hog premium to December is now $25.47 at midday. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was $119.93 this morning after a $1.32 bounce. The CME Lean Hog Index was $110.74 on 6/21, up by 29 cents.  

USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 25,386 MT of pork was sold during the week that ended 6/16. FAS data marked that as 10% below the 4-week average. Mexico was the top buyer with 15.2k MT booked. Pork shipments were 28,853 MT during the week, bringing the YTD total to 711,154 MT. That trails last year’s record by 24%.  

Pork cutout futures are trading $0.97 to $2.52 in the black bouncing into the weekend after earlier losses from the week. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was $3.21 higher this morning at $112.98. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 1.851m head for the week through Thursday. That is down from 1.867m head last week and 1.886m head during the same week last year. 

Jul 22 Hogs  are at $110.875, up $2.325,

Aug 22 Hogs  are at $106.975, up $3.300

Jul 22 Pork Cutout  is at $112.050, up $1.200,

Corn Market Rebounding

Pile of Yellow Corn

So far for Friday the corn futures are double digits higher, recovering 1.4% to 2.7%. July options expire at the close, with both the 760 and 750s in play. 

Data from the EIA is still delayed due to a systems issue. USDA reported the weekly average corn oil prices ranged 75.7 to 74.83 c/lb regionally through the week that ended 6/24. That compares to last week’s 76.2 to 77.5 cent prices. Cash ethanol prices also came down 7-9 cents/gal to $2.61-$2.77/gal. DDGS FOB prices were $300-$308/ton in the Gulf, compared to $322 in the PNW and $290-$302 in the Gulf last week. 

USDA reported old crop corn sales were 671,919 MT from the week that ended 6/16. That marked a 7-week high and the trade was looking for less than 600k MT going in. Export shipments of 1.147 MMT brough the season’s total to 50.216 MMT. That is 80.7% of USDA’s forecast. New crop sales were 358,407 MT from the week, which was mid-range of estimates and brought the forward book to 6.257 MMT. 

The IGC sees 22/23 world corn production at 1.184 billion MT. That is down from their prior 1.197b MT estimate and is still under last year's 1.214 billion. Carryout stocks were lifted by 4 MMT as the consumption numbers came down by more than the lost output. 

Jul 22 Corn  is at $7.56 1/2, up 9 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   is at $7.59 7/8, up 8 1/4 cents,

Sep 22 Corn  is at $6.80 3/4, up 14 cents,

Dec 22 Corn  is at $6.73, up 17 1/2 cents,

New Crop Cash   is at $6.55 5/8, up 17 cents,

July Collapses Overnight

Cotton - jordan-jensen-RTDb00SNeKA-unsplash

With July cotton options off the table, and with them the limit on daily price moves, the board dropped over 23 cents to $1.13/lb overnight. Currently this morning July futures are down 10.8% to $1.21 60/100. New crop cotton also looks to start the Friday session with triple digit weakness of 56 to 111 points. July cotton was lock limit down at 136.32 cents for most of the Thursday session. That came after July had been holding relatively firm compared to the new crop drops. New crop cotton futures ended the day 550 to 606 points in the red as well. For December, that had the board just 2 cents above the $1 mark, a level not the market hasn’t closed below since January. 

NOAA’s updated QPF shows light rainfall for the Gulf and Southeastern Coastlines. Deeper inland fields will mostly miss out on more than 1/2” through the week. Central TX will get spotty activity from the named tropical storm Celia – which is set to stay Southwest of Mexico. 

The Cotlook A index was 480 points lower on 6/22 to 156.50 cents. USDA lowered the Adjusted World Price for cotton by 4.52 cents to 135.95 c/lb.  

Jul 22 Cotton  closed at 136.32, down 700 points, currently down 1472 points

Dec 22 Cotton  closed at 102.01, down 606 points, currently down 54 points

Mar 23 Cotton  closed at 97.73, down 594 points, currently down 89 points 

Corn Bouncing With Double Digit Losses

corn-57774_1920

Corn prices are double digits higher into the day portion of Friday trading. July options expire at the close. Corn bounced late on Thursday, ending the day about a dime off the session lows, but futures were still down by double digits. New crop prices were down the most with 36 3/4 to 38 1/4 cent losses on the day. July corn closed 21 1/4 cents lower. Preliminary open interest showed long liquidation in July and December, but net new selling in the other contract months. OI overall dropped 25,779 contracts

Going into the weekly Export Sales report, survey respondents are looking for between 300k and 600k MT of old crop corn sales. New crop bookings are anticipated to be between 200,000 and 600,000 MT. 

The IGC sees 22/23 world corn production at 1.184 billion MT. That is down from their prior 1.197b MT estimate and is still under last year's 1.214 billion. Carryout stocks were lifted by 4 MMT as the consumption numbers came down by more than the lost output. 

Jul 22 Corn  closed at $7.46 3/4, down 21 1/4 cents, currently up 4 1/2 cents

Nearby Cash  was $7.51 7/8 on Thursday, down 24 1/4 cents,

Sep 22 Corn  closed at $6.66 3/4, down 35 1/4 cents, currently up 13 1/2 cents

Dec 22 Corn  closed at $6.55 1/2, down 38 1/4 cents, currently up 15 1/4 cents

New Crop Cash  was $6.37 ½ on Thursday, down 37 3/8 cents,

May CoF Data Due This Afternoon

Black and white cow brown cow

The live cattle futures market ended the day with $0.87 to $1.12 losses on Thursday. There were 25 deliveries issued for June heifers, but they were retendered before being scheduled. USDA mentioned $2-3 higher cash trade in the WCB at $150 on Thursday. NE sales were steady from $145-$148, while the bulk of Southern trades for the week have been ~$4 lower to $137. Front month feeder cattle futures closed $1.12 to $1.70 in the black as the grain feed markets continued lower. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $165.23 on 6/23, up by 2 cents. 

NASS data showed that beef stocks in cold storage were a respective monthly record again in May for the 4th consecutive month. The surplus was down 2.5% from April to 519.167m lbs but is a sharp contrast to near record low stocks during last summer/fall. 

Wholesale Boxed Beef prices fell in USDA’s PM report to $264.66 in Choice and $244.94 in Select. Choice boxes were $1.91 weaker to the $1.05 drop in Select. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter was 498k head through Thursday. That is 3k head above last week and 473k head. 

Jun 22 Cattle  closed at $135.250, down $0.875,

Aug 22 Cattle  closed at $133.875, down $1.050,

Oct 22 Cattle  closed at $140.000, down $1.075,

Aug 22 Feeder Cattle  closed at $174.850, up $1.700

Sep 22 Feeder Cattle  closed at $176.850, up $1.550

Wheat Staging Friday Comeback

Wheat field on a beautiful summer day

Wheats are bouncing 8 to 20 cents higher into Friday’s day session, but are still deeply red from early week weakness. Yesterday, front month wheat futures ended the day with 39 1/4 to 40 1/2 cent losses in the SRW market. For July that was a 4% drop and brought the board back to near pre-invasion day levels. KC wheat futures closed with 34 to 35 cent losses on the day. Spring wheats went home 23 1/2 to 27 1/4 cents lower. July options expire at the close. 

The Juneteenth delayed Export Sales data is anticipated to show between 150k and 400k MT of new crop wheat was sold during the week that ended 6/16.

Day 8 of the KS wheat harvest reports focused on South and Southwest counties. Reports from Hamilton County have typical yields in the 9-20 bpa range – citing earlier dryness. Stafford County yields were reported near mid 20s to low 30s, which was below expectations as rains had seemed timely. 

IGC estimates for global wheat production fell 11 MMT from May’s figure to 769 MMT. That is now down 12 MMT yr/yr and the lightest since 19/20. Carryout was reduced by 6 MMT as consumption also dropped by 5. IGC had global 22/23 wheat stocks estimated at 271 MMT, compared to 282 MMT last year. 

Jul 22 CBOT Wheat  closed at $9.37 1/4, down 39 1/4 cents, currently up 20 3/4 cents

Cash SRW Wheat  was $8.79 ¾ on Thursday, down 39 3/8 cents,

Jul 22 KCBT Wheat  closed at $10.05, down 34 1/4 cents, currently up 13 1/2 cents

Cash HRW Wheat  was $9.61 7/8 on Thursday, down 31 3/4 cents,

Jul 22 MGEX Wheat  closed at $10.80 1/2, down 25 1/2 cents, currently up 8 1/2 cents

Sep 22 MGEX Wheat  closed at $10.79 3/4, down 26 cents, currently up 8 1/2 cents

Lean Hogs to Follow Triple Digit Losses

Pig grazing in field

Lean hogs traded triple digits lower through the Thursday session. The board went home $2.72 to $4.65 lower in the front months. USDA’s National Average Afternoon Base Hog price was $1.63 weaker on Thursday to $120.82. The CME Lean Hog Index was $110.45 on 6/20 after a $1.29 boost. 

USDA’s Cold Storage report showed 543.079m lbs of pork stocks were in the cooler as of May 31. Supply was up for the 5th consecutive month and a sharp 17.4% higher than May ’21’s 12-yr low. Pork stocks are still below pre-COVID levels. 

Pork cutout futures closed $3.07 to $4.10 in the red as well. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was $1.38 weaker in the PM report at $109.77. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 1.851m head for the week through Thursday. That is down from 1.867m head last week and 1.886m head during the same week last year. 

Jul 22 Hogs  closed at $108.550, down $3.300,

Aug 22 Hogs  closed at $103.675, down $4.650

Jul 22 Pork Cutout  closed at $111.150, down $3.075,

Bean Shorts Take Profits

soya-83087_1280

So far the Friday soy market is bouncing with 4 1/2 to 7 cent gains going into the day session. Following sharp +$1 losses for the week, it seems the market’s shorts are realizing gains.  November beans had previous lows from 2/25 and 4/1 in the $14-$14.20 range which could be offering support for bargain buying. Weekend weather and pre-report positioning for Thursday’s USDA reports will drive market direction in the coming weeks. 

Options expire today at the close, with many strikes still in play due to the large price swings. 

At the Thursday close, soybean futures were down 56 1/4 to 61 cents per bushel. Preliminary open interest dropped 12,175 contracts, long liquidation. Soybean meal prices ended the day with $5.70 to $11.10/ton losses. Chinese futures were under pressure from large inventories. BO prices sank by another 295 to 351 points on the day. Options expire today at the close, with many strikes still in play due to the large price swings. 

Pre-report estimates for the weekly Export Sales data release have old crop soybean sales ranging from 100k MT of net cancelations to 300 MT of net new sales. New crop business is expected to be below 500k MT. For soymeal, the trade expects between 100k and 300k MT were sold for 21/22 delivery. Soybean oil bookings are estimated below 25k MT. 

Updated estimates from the International Grains Council show a 4 MMT increase to 22/23 global production – now at 387 MMT. Soybean ending stocks grew by 4 MMT as well from their last month estimate to now 13 MMT above 21/22. 

Jul 22 Soybeans  closed at $15.93 1/4, down 59 1/2 cents, currently up 7 cents

Nearby Cash  was $15.40 5/8 on Thursday, down 58 3/4 cents,

Aug 22 Soybeans  closed at $15.07 1/4, down 56 3/4 cents, currently up 4 1/2 cents

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.15 1/2, down 61 cents, currently up 7 1/4 cents

New Crop Cash  was $13.65 ½ on Thursday, down 61 1/8 cents,

Double Digit Losses in Corn Market

Large cornfield with rows of crop

Corn bounced into the close, ending the day about a dime off the session lows, but futures were still down by double digits. New crop prices were down by the most with 36 3/4 to 38 1/4 cent losses on the day. July corn closed 21 1/4 cents lower. 

Data from the EIA was delayed due to a systems issue. 

Wetter than normal forecasts for much of the Corn Belt from NOAA’s 8-14 day have the traders taking some weather premium out of the market. These rains will follow the recent heat wave – which was generally considered beneficial for the later planted crops in getting enough GDD accumulation to catch up to a more normalized year. 

Going into the weekly Export Sales report, survey respondents are looking for between 300k and 600k MT of old crop corn sales. New crop bookings are anticipated to be between 200,000 and 600,000 MT. 

The IGC sees 22/23 world corn production at 1.184 billion MT. That is down from their prior 1.197b MT estimate and is still under last year's 1.214 billion. Carryout stocks were lifted by 4 MMT as the consumption numbers came down by more than the lost output. 

The Ukrainian Ag Ministry reported spring crop planting had finished, with 4.6m HA of corn, compared to 5.5m last season. As a percentage of all spring crop land, corn was up to 34.3% on the 13.4m HA, compared to 32.5% on 16.9m total HA last year. 

Jul 22 Corn  closed at $7.46 3/4, down 21 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $7.51 7/8, down 24 1/4 cents,

Sep 22 Corn  closed at $6.66 3/4, down 35 1/4 cents,

Dec 22 Corn  closed at $6.55 1/2, down 38 1/4 cents,

New Crop Cash  was $6.37 1/2, down 37 3/8 cents,

Lean Hogs Drop on Thursday

Pigs feeding from trough in pen

Lean hogs traded triple digits lower through the Thursday session. The board went home $2.72 to $4.65 lower in the front months. USDA’s National Average Afternoon Base Hog price was $1.63 weaker on Thursday to $120.82. The CME Lean Hog Index was $110.45 on 6/20 after a $1.29 boost. 

USDA’s Cold Storage report showed 543.079m lbs of pork stocks were in the cooler as of May. That was up for the 5th consecutive month and is a sharp 17.4% higher than May ’21’s 12-yr low. Pork stocks are still below pre-COVID levels. 

Pork cutout futures closed $3.07 to $4.10 in the red as well. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was $1.38 weaker in the PM report at $109.77. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 1.851m head for the week through Thursday. That is down from 1.867m head last week and 1.886m head during the same week last year. 

Jul 22 Hogs  closed at $108.550, down $3.300,

Aug 22 Hogs  closed at $103.675, down $4.650

Jul 22 Pork Cutout  closed at $111.150, down $3.075,

Triple Digit Follow Through from Cotton

Cotton - jeff-hutcheson-i-62dBYw_vM-unsplash

July cotton was lock limit down at 136.32 cents for most of the Thursday session. That came after July had been holding relatively firm compared to the new crop drops. New crop cotton futures ended the day 550 to 606 points in the red as well. For December, that had the board just 2 cents above the $1 mark, a level not the market hasn’t closed below since January. 

NOAA’s updated QPF shows light rainfall for the Gulf and Southeastern Coastlines. Deeper inland fields will mostly miss out on more than 1/2” through the week. Central TX will get spotty activity from the named tropical storm Celia – which is set to stay Southwest of Mexico. 

The Cotlook A index was 480 points lower on 6/22 to 156.50 cents. USDA lowered the Adjusted World Price for cotton by 4.52 cents to 135.95 c/lb.  

Jul 22 Cotton  closed at 136.32, down 700 points,

Dec 22 Cotton  closed at 102.01, down 606 points,

Mar 23 Cotton  closed at 97.73, down 594 points

Beans Close Near Lows on Double Digits Losses

A hand scooping soybeans

At the Thursday close, soybean futures were 56 1/4 to 61 cents in the red. Soybean mela prices ended the day with $5.70 to $11.10/ton losses. BO prices sank by another 295 to 351 points on the day. Options expire tomorrow at the close, with many strikes still in play due to the large price swings. 

Pre-report estimates for the weekly Export Sales data release have old crop soybean sales ranging from 100k MT of net cancelations to 300 MT of net new sales. New crop business is expected to be below 500k MT in tomorrow’s Juneteenth delayed report. For soymeal, the trade expects between 100k and 300k MT were sold for 21/22 delivery. Soybean oil bookings are estimated below 25k MT. 

Updated estimates from the International Grains Council show a 4 MMT increase to 22/23 global production – now at 387 MMT. Soybean ending stocks grew by 4 MMT as well from their last month estimate to now 13 MMT above 21/22. 

Argentinian truck drivers went on strike yesterday by blocking 4 miles of a main grain highway. The protest was inspired by high diesel prices and fuel shortages throughout the country. Other citizens joined the effort, but reports are that the protest has disbanded and transport is flowing again. Earlier in June, Argentina upped the required biodiesel blend rate for a 60 day period hoping to alleviate some of the fuel shortage. 

Chinese soybean import data from country of origin showed that 7.8 MMT of their May imports came from Brazil with 1.73 MMT from the U.S. That compares to 9.2 MMT and 244k MT last year respectively. Of the first 5 months of 2021, China has brought in 20.5 MMT of soybeans from Brazil and 16.77 MMT from the U.S. Last year, it was 15.6 and 21.5 MMT respectively. 

Jul 22 Soybeans  closed at $15.93 1/4, down 59 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $15.40 5/8, down 58 3/4 cents,

Aug 22 Soybeans  closed at $15.07 1/4, down 56 3/4 cents,

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.15 1/2, down 61 cents,

New Crop Cash  was $13.65 1/2, down 61 1/8 cents,

Wheat Closes Weaker on Thursday

Wheat in the blue sky under the sun

Front month wheat futures ended the day with 39 1/4 to 40 1/2 cent losses in the SRW market. For July that was a 4% drop and brought the board back to near pre-invasion day levels. KC wheat futures closed with 34 to 35 cent losses on the day. Spring wheats went home 23 1/2 to 27 1/4 cents lower. July options expire at the close tomorrow. 

The Juneteenth delayed Export Sales data is anticipated to show between 150k and 400k MT of new crop wheat was sold during the week that ended 6/16.

Day 8 of the KS wheat harvest reports focused on South and Southwest counties. Reports from Hamilton County have typical yields in the 9-20 bpa range – citing earlier dryness. Stafford County yields were reported near mid 20s to low 30s, which was below expectations as rains had seemed timely. 

IGC estimates for global wheat production fell 11 MMT from May’s figure to 769 MMT. That is now down 12 MMT yr/yr and the lightest since 19/20. Carryout was reduced by 6 MMT as consumption also dropped by 5. IGC had global 22/23 wheat stocks estimated at 271 MMT, compared to 282 MMT last year. 

Japan’s MOA is on the market for 168,330 MT of wheat to be sourced from U.S., Canada, and Australia. Pakistan is seeking 500k MT of milling wheat. 

Jul 22 CBOT Wheat  closed at $9.37 1/4, down 39 1/4 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  was $8.79 3/4, down 39 3/8 cents,

Jul 22 KCBT Wheat  closed at $10.05, down 34 1/4 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  was $9.61 7/8, down 31 3/4 cents,

Jul 22 MGEX Wheat  closed at $10.80 1/2, down 25 1/2 cents,

Sep 22 MGEX Wheat  closed at $10.79 3/4, down 26 cents,

Fed Cattle Futures Fade as Feeders Gain

Cows grazing in a meadow sunshine

The live cattle futures market ended the day with $0.87 to $1.12 losses on Thursday. There were 25 deliveries issued for June heifers, but they were retendered before being scheduled. USDA mentioned $2-3 higher cash trade in the WCB at $150 on Thursday. NE sales were steady from $145-$148, while the Southern bulk price for the week so far has been ~$4 lower to $137. Front month feeder cattle futures closed $1.12 to $1.70 in the black as the grain feed markets continued lower. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $165.23 on 6/23, up by 2 cents. 

NASS data showed that beef stocks in cold storage were a respective monthly record again in May for the 4th consecutive month. The surplus was down 2.5% from April to 519.167m lbs, but is a sharp contrast to near record low stocks during last summer/fall. 

Wholesale Boxed Beef prices fell in USDA’s PM report to $264.66 in Choice and $244.94 in Select. Choice boxes were $1.91 weaker to the $1.05 drop in Select. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter was 498k head through Thursday. That is 3k head above last week and 473k head. 

Jun 22 Cattle  closed at $135.250, down $0.875,

Aug 22 Cattle  closed at $133.875, down $1.050,

Oct 22 Cattle  closed at $140.000, down $1.075,

Aug 22 Feeder Cattle  closed at $174.850, up $1.700

Sep 22 Feeder Cattle  closed at $176.850, up $1.550

Soy Markets Dropping through Midday

young soy bean growing summertime

So far through Thursday the July soybean contract is down 60 cents to $15.93. Options expire tomorrow at the close, with many strikes still in play off the large price swings. New crop soybeans are also down 3.7% to 4% on the broad ag selling. Meal and BO futures are down $3-$10/ton and 330-370 points respectively. 

Argentinian truck drivers went on strike yesterday by blocking 4 miles of a main grain highway. The protest was inspired by high diesel prices and fuel shortages throughout the country. Other citizens joined the effort, but reports are that the protest has disbanded and transport is flowing again. Earlier in June, Argentina upped the required biodiesel blend rate for a 60 day period hoping to alleviate some of the fuel shortage. 

Chinese soybean import data from country of origin showed that 7.8 MMT of their May imports came from Brazil with 1.73 MMT from the U.S. That compares to 9.2 MMT and 244k MT last year respectively. Of the first 5 months of 2021, China has brought in 20.5 MMT of soybeans from Brazil and 16.77 MMT from the U.S. Last year, it was 15.6 and 21.5 MMT respectively. 

Jul 22 Soybeans  are at $15.93 1/4, down 59 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash  is at $15.39, down 59 3/8 cents,

Aug 22 Soybeans  are at $15.05, down 59 cents,

Nov 22 Soybeans  are at $14.14 1/2, down 62 cents,

New Crop Cash  is at $13.65 3/4, down 60 7/8 cents,

Hog Futures Red at Midday

Pig grazing in field

Front month lean hog futures are down triple digits with losses of as much as $3.75 so far in the August contract. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price from the AM report was up another $1.28 to $118.61. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 17 was $109.16 after another 62 cent increase. 

Front month pork cutout prices are also $2.97 to $3.77 weaker. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value from the AM report was 9 cents higher to $111.24. USDA estimated the week’s FI hog slaughter at 1.386m head through Wednesday. That is down 15k from last week and trails the same week last year by 28k head. 

Jul 22 Hogs  are at $109.500, down $2.350,

Aug 22 Hogs  are at $104.700, down $3.625

Jul 22 Pork Cutout  is at $112.000, down $2.225,

Limit Loss in July Cotton

Cotton - jeff-hutcheson-i-62dBYw_vM-unsplash

After holding mostly firm through the week, the July cotton market is down by the extended 7 cent limit. New crop futures are off their lows at midday, but are still down by 455 to 492 points so far. 

NOAA’s updated QPF shows light rainfall for the Gulf and Southeastern Coastlines. Deeper inland fields will mostly miss out on more than 1/2” through the week. Central TX will get spotty activity from the named tropical storm Celia – which is set to stay Southwest of Mexico. 

The Cotlook A index was 480 points lower on 6/22 to 156.50 cents. USDA’s AWP will be updated after the close from the current 140.47 cents/lb. 

Jul 22 Cotton  is at 136.32, down 700 points,

Dec 22 Cotton  is at 103.38, down 469 points,

Mar 23 Cotton  is at 98.86, down 481 points

Sharp Losses for Corn and Ag on Thursday

Corn Rows of from Below

So far through the midday market corn prices are down 6% to 6.4% in new crop. July is down by 27 cents on a 3.5% loss. The CME data suggests the July gain to Sep loss yesterday on lower July OI and higher Sep OI could be indicative of commercials rolling coverage out of July and into the Sep contract. 

Data from the EIA was delayed due to a systems issue. 

Wetter than normal forecasts for much of the Corn Belt from NOAA’s 8-14 day have the traders taking some weather premium out of the market. These rains will follow the recent heat wave – which was generally considered beneficial for the later planted crops in getting enough GDD accumulation to catch up to a more normalized year. 

The Ukrainian Ag Ministry reported spring crop planting had finished, with 4.6m HA of corn, compared to 5.5m last season. As a percentage of all spring crop land, corn was up to 34.3% on the 13.4m HA, compared to 32.5% on 16.9m total HA last year. 

Jul 22 Corn  is at $7.41 1/2, down 26 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash  is at $7.47 3/8, down 27 7/8 cents,

Sep 22 Corn  is at $6.60 1/4, down 41 3/4 cents,

Dec 22 Corn  is at $6.50, down 43 3/4 cents,

New Crop Cash  is at $6.31 1/4, down 43 1/2 cents,

Double Digit Losses in Wheat Market

Single stalk of wheat on white background

The wheats are also down by double digits on 2-3% losses through Thursday’s midday. A broad row crop selloff has red across the ag commodities screen. CBT SRW futures are decisively below the $10/bu mark through midday, and are working back to near March levels. KC wheat futures are trading 24 1/2 to 28 3/4 cents in the red. Spring wheat futures are down 17 3/4 to 23 3/4 cents through midday in the front months. 

Day 8 of the KS wheat harvest reports focused on South and Southwest counties. Reports from Hamilton County have typical yields in the 9-20 bpa range – citing earlier dryness. Stafford County yields were reported near mid 20s to low 30s, which was below expectations as rains had seemed timely. 

Japan’s MOA is on the market for 168,330 MT of wheat to be sourced from U.S., Canada, and Australia. Algeria booked 600k MT of optional origin wheat. Tunisia is tendering. Pakistan is seeking 500k MT of milling wheat. Bangladesh is said to have requested 200k MT of Russian wheat. 

Jul 22 CBOT Wheat  is at $9.43 1/4, down 33 1/4 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  is at $8.85 3/4, down 33 3/8 cents,

Jul 22 KCBT Wheat  is at $10.11 1/4, down 28 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  is at $9.64 1/2, down 28 1/8 cents,

Jul 22 MGEX Wheat  is at $10.82 3/4, down 23 1/4 cents,

Sep 22 MGEX Wheat  is at $10.82, down 23 3/4 cents,

Cattle Mixed with Higher Feeders

Cows eating hay in a farm cowshed

Live cattle futures are trading 67 to 92 cents in the red through midday. Feeders are up on the weaker grains with gains of $0.92 to $1.17. There were 25 deliveries issued for June heifers, but they were retendered before being scheduled. USDA noted light $138 sales in KS on Wednesday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $1.61 higher on 6/16 to $162.17. 

Going into Friday’s CoF report, the trade is looking to see a 1.5% yr/yr increase to June 1’s cattle on feed inventory. Placements are expected to be 0.2% below May ’21, while the average trade guess for marketings is 3% higher. 

Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were lower in USDA’s AM update. Choice boxes were down $1.79 to $264.78 and Select boxes were 96 cents weaker to $245.03. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 376k head for the week through Wednesday. That is up 8k head from last week and 21k from the same week last year.

Jun 22 Cattle  are at $135.300, down $0.825,

Aug 22 Cattle  are at $134.150, down $0.775,

Oct 22 Cattle  are at $140.250, down $0.825,

Aug 22 Feeder Cattle  are at $174.475, up $1.325

Sep 22 Feeder Cattle  are at $176.550, up $1.250

Thursday Hog Trade Follows Red Wednesday

Piglets napping

Hog futures traded red on Wednesday, with afternoon weakness pulling the board to $0.17 to $1.47 losses at the settle. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price for Wednesday afternoon was $3.46 higher to $122.45. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 17 was $109.16 after another 62 cent increase. 

Front month pork cutout futures closed the Wednesday session with $0.37 to $1.82 losses. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value from Wednesday’s PM report was $111.15 after a 29 cent increase. USDA estimated the week’s FI hog slaughter at 1.386m head through Wednesday. That is down 15k from last week and trails the same week last year by 28k head. 

Jul 22 Hogs  closed at $111.850, down $0.875,

Aug 22 Hogs  closed at $108.325, down $1.475

Jul 22 Pork Cutout  closed at $114.050, down $1.100,

7 Cent Limits for Cotton

Cotton Fabric and Textiles on Spools

Following the limit drop on Wednesday, the nearby cotton futures complex is already 200 to 457 points in the red on the 700 point limits. The thinly traded October contract is already down by the limit going into the day session. July rallied triple digits on Wednesday, but ultimately ended the day with a 19 point loss. New crop futures hit their limit down (6 cent loss), with October, March and May closing there. December bounced back by 22 cents for the close, but is still down a net 10.22 c/lb for the week to date. The market appears to be pricing in reduced demand due to an anticipated economic slowdown. 

The Cotlook A index was again UNCH at 161.30 cents for 6/21. USDA raised the Adjusted World Price for cotton by 6.06 cents to 140.47 cents/lb. 

Jul 22 Cotton  closed at 143.32, down 19 points, currently down 202 points

Dec 22 Cotton  closed at 108.07, down 578 points, currently down 446 points

Mar 23 Cotton  closed at 103.67, down 600 points, currently down 444 points

Double Digit Losses into Thursday Wheat Trade

Wheat field on a beautiful summer day

Front month wheat futures are down by double digits going into the Thursday session. Wheat futures traded in a wide range on Wednesday, to the tune of nearly 50 c/bu in July SRW. At the bell, Chicago SRW futures were within just a penny and a half of UNCH. KC wheats ended the day 2 to 5 cents in the red. Front month Minneapolis wheat futures closed down by as much as 15 3/4 cents. 

Day 7 reports from the KS wheat harvest mentioned some hail damage around North Central’s Ellis County, with harvest pace from 33% to 40% complete. Of the non-damaged fields, yields were reported from 25-35 bpa and 11.3% protein. In Southeast KS’s Cowley County, self reported yields are running about 20% below normal. 

Japan’s MOA is on the market for 168,330 MT of wheat to be sourced from U.S., Canada, and Australia. Algeria booked 600k MT of optional origin wheat. Tunisia is tendering. Pakistan is seeking 500k MT of milling wheat. Bangladesh is said to have requested 200k MT of Russian wheat. 

Wire reports suggest a Russian missile strike destroyed or damaged two large grain terminals in Mykolaiv earlier on Wednesday further decreasing already slim odds of Ukrainian exports by sea. 

Russia’s SovEcon sees 22/23 wheat output at 89.2 MMT, a 600k MT boost from their prior estimate. The UkrAgroConsult estimated Russia’s wheat crop at 85.4 MMT, which was also up by 1.9 MMT from their prior forecast. 

Jul 22 CBOT Wheat  closed at $9.76 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents, currently down 18 cents

Cash SRW Wheat  was $9.18, up 1 5/8 cents,

Jul 22 KCBT Wheat  closed at $10.39 1/4, down 2 cents, currently down 24 1/2 cents

Cash HRW Wheat  was $9.93 5/8, down 2 cents,

Jul 22 MGEX Wheat  closed at $11.06, down 11 3/4 cents, currently down 15 3/4 cents

Sep 22 MGEX Wheat  closed at $11.05 3/4, down 12 1/4 cents, currently down 18 1/2 cents

Soy Selling Continues

Large soybean field on a sunny day

Beans are down by 27 to 32 3/4 cents so far going into the Thursday day session. Meal is down $6.20 to $8.90 so far, while soybean oil prices are holding firm with 1 to 25 point losses. Soybean futures closed yesterday with 28 1/4 to 34 1/4 cent losses in the front months. That has November soybeans at a net 61 cent drop for the week so far. BO prices gave back another 3.7% to 4% on the day, with July trading at levels not seen since April. Plunging Indonesian palm oil prices and weaker crude oil weighed the price of the BO. 

Soy crush spreads were reported negative in both China (~ -$25.17/MT) and in Brazil (~ - 25c/bu). 

European Rapeseed Futures were down even more on Wednesday, with another 3.8% drop to 692.5 euro/MT. the mid-May highs were in the lower 880s/MT. Similar trade in Canada had Canadian Canola Prices another 4% lower to $961 CAD/MT. That is down 21% from mid-May. 

Chinese soybean import data from country of origin showed that 7.8 MMT of their May imports came from Brazil with 1.73 MMT from the U.S. That compares to 9.2 MMT and 244k MT last year respectively. Of the first 5 months of 2021, China has brought in 20.5 MMT of soybeans from Brazil and 16.77 MMT from the U.S. Last year, it was 15.6 and 21.5 MMT respectively. 

Jul 22 Soybeans  closed at $16.52 3/4, down 28 1/4 cents, currently down 30 3/4 cents

Nearby Cash  was $15.98 3/8, down 34 cents,

Aug 22 Soybeans  closed at $15.64, down 34 1/2 cents, currently down 32 1/4 cents

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.76 1/2, down 34 cents, currently down 31 1/2 cents

New Crop Cash  was $14.26 5/8, down 33 3/4 cents,

Cattle React to Hard Grains Losses

Close up shot of brown and white cow

Fat cattle futures pulled back on Wednesday with losses of $1.22 to $1.70. Feeder cattle bounced off their lows but were still down by as much as $2.15 by the bell. The Wednesday FCE auction had no sales for the 1,195 head listed. Bids were capped at $136.75 against the $138-139 asks. USDA noted light $138 sales in KS on Wednesday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $1.61 higher on 6/16 to $162.17. 

Going into Friday’s CoF report, the trade is looking to see a 1.5% yr/yr increase to June 1’s cattle on feed inventory. Placements are expected to be 0.2% below May ’21, while the average trade guess for marketings is 3% higher. 

Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were quoted at $266.57 cwt. in Choice and $245.99 in Select this afternoon. That was a $0.99 pullback and a $0.71 drop respectively. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 376k head for the week through Wednesday. That is up 8k head from last week and 21k from the same week last year.

Jun 22 Cattle  closed at $136.125, down $1.700,

Aug 22 Cattle  closed at $134.925, down $1.325,

Oct 22 Cattle  closed at $141.075, down $1.225,

Aug 22 Feeder Cattle  closed at $173.150, down $2.150

Sep 22 Feeder Cattle  closed at $175.300, down $1.975

Red Corn Into Thursday

Corn Many Kernels

Headed into the day portion of the Thursday session, corn markets are 9 1/2 to 18 3/4 cents in the red. Old crop July prices bounced back with a 7 1/4 cent gain on the day. That is still a net 16 cent loss for the week, with the gap to the $7.80s still unfilled. New crop corn futures closed off their lows, and under the round number $7/bu mark on 7 cent losses. CME data confirmed yesterday was mostly net new selling by rotation from long to short in new crop corn. For July, OI dropped another 37k contracts. 

Brazil’s Patria Agronegocios reported 2nd crop corn harvest at 14.7% complete, compared to 8.3% on average. Agroconsult estimated the Brazilian 2nd crop corn output at 89.3 MMT, up from 87.6 MMT. That has the total Brazilian corn output as 114.8 MMT, still below some other recent estimates. Brazil’s corn exports are estimated as 1.758 MMT for June from Anec. 

The Ukrainian Ag Ministry reported spring crop planting had finished, with 4.6m HA of corn, compared to 5.5m last season. As a percentage of all spring crop land, corn was up to 34.3% on the 13.4m HA, compared to 32.5% on 16.9m total HA last year. 

Jul 22 Corn  closed at $7.68, up 7 1/4 cents, currently down 9 1/2 cents

Nearby Cash  was $7.75 1/8, up 7 5/8 cents,

Sep 22 Corn  closed at $7.02, down 7 1/4 cents, currently down 16 cents

Dec 22 Corn  closed at $6.93 3/4, down 7 3/4 cents, currently down 18 1/4 cents

New Crop Cash  was $6.75 3/4, down 7 1/4 cents,

Cotton Drops Limited 6 Cents

Cotton - kelly-sikkema-8A7qKkvm_ew-unsplash

Following the Tuesday drop, cotton futures again stayed relatively firm in July to harsh losses for new crop. July rallied triple digits on Wednesday, but ultimately ended the day with a 19 point loss. New crop futures hit their limit down (6 cent loss), with October, March and May closing there. December bounced back by 22 cents for the close, but is still down a net 10.22 c/lb for the week to date. The market appears to be pricing in reduced demand due to an anticipated economic slowdown. 

NASS reported the cotton crop was 96% planted as of 6/19. That was up 6% points through the week and is 1% point above the average. That compares to 23% and 4% on average. Cotton conditions from the report were down 19 points on the Brugler500 Index to 310. 

The Cotlook A index was again UNCH at 161.30 cents for 6/21. USDA raised the Adjusted World Price for cotton by 6.06 cents to 140.47 cents/lb. 

Jul 22 Cotton  closed at 143.32, down 19 points,

Dec 22 Cotton  closed at 108.07, down 578 points,

Mar 23 Cotton  closed at 103.67, down 600 points

Lean Hogs Fade into Close

Piglets Sleeping Next to Each Other

Hog futures traded red on Wednesday, with afternoon weakness pulling the board to $0.17 to $1.47 losses at the settle. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price for Wednesday afternoon was $3.46 higher to $122.45. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 17 was $109.16 after another 62 cent increase. 

Front month pork cutout futures closed the Wednesday session with $0.37 to $1.82 losses. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value from Wednesday’s PM report was $111.15 after a 29 cent increase. USDA estimated the week’s FI hog slaughter at 1.386m head through Wednesday. That is down 15k from last week and trails the same week last year by 28k head. 

Jul 22 Hogs  closed at $111.850, down $0.875,

Aug 22 Hogs  closed at $108.325, down $1.475

Jul 22 Pork Cutout  closed at $114.050, down $1.100,

Mixed Close in Wide Ranged Wheat Market

Field of wheat at golden hour

Wheat futures traded in a wide range on Wednesday, to the tune of nearly 50 c/bu in July SRW. At the bell, Chicago SRW futures were within just a penny and a half of UNCH. KC wheats ended the day 2 to 5 cents in the red. Front month Minneapolis wheat futures closed down by as much as 15 3/4 cents. 

Day 7 reports from the KS wheat harvest mentioned some hail damage around North Central’s Ellis County, with harvest pace from 33% to 40% complete. Of the non-damaged fields, yields were reported from 25-35 bpa and 11.3% protein. In Southeast KS’s Cowley County, self reported yields are running about 20% below normal. 

Japan’s MOA is on the market for 168,330 MT of wheat to be sourced from U.S., Canada, and Australia. Algeria booked 600k MT of optional origin wheat. Tunisia is tendering. Pakistan is seeking 500k MT of milling wheat. Bangladesh is said to have requested 200k MT of Russian wheat. 

Wire reports suggest a Russian missile strike destroyed or damaged two large grain terminals in Mykolaiv earlier on Wednesday further decreasing already slim odds of Ukrainian exports by sea. 

Russia’s SovEcon sees 22/23 wheat output at 89.2 MMT, a 600k MT boost from their prior estimate. The UkrAgroConsult estimated Russia’s wheat crop at 85.4 MMT, which was also up by 1.9 MMT from their prior forecast. 

Jul 22 CBOT Wheat  closed at $9.76 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  was $9.18, up 1 5/8 cents,

Jul 22 KCBT Wheat  closed at $10.39 1/4, down 2 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  was $9.93 5/8, down 2 cents,

Jul 22 MGEX Wheat  closed at $11.06, down 11 3/4 cents,

Sep 22 MGEX Wheat  closed at $11.05 3/4, down 12 1/4 cents,

Triple Digit Losses for Cattle Complex

Brown Cow in Field

Fat cattle futures pulled back on Wednesday with losses of $1.22 to $1.70. Feeder cattle bounced off their lows but were still down by as much as $2.15 by the bell. The Wednesday FCE auction had no sales for the 1,195 head listed. Bids were capped at $136.75 against the $138-139 asks. USDA noted light $138 sales in KS on Wednesday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $1.61 higher on 6/16 to $162.17. 

Going into Friday’s CoF report, the trade is looking to see a 1.5% yr/yr increase to June 1’s cattle on feed inventory. Placements are expected to be 0.2% below May ’21, while the average trade guess for marketings is 3% higher. 

Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were quoted at $266.57 cwt. in Choice and $245.99 in Select this afternoon. That was a $0.99 pullback and a $0.71 drop respectively. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 376k head for the week through Wednesday. That is up 8k head from last week and 21k from the same week last year.

Jun 22 Cattle  closed at $136.125, down $1.700,

Aug 22 Cattle  closed at $134.925, down $1.325,

Oct 22 Cattle  closed at $141.075, down $1.225,

Aug 22 Feeder Cattle  closed at $173.150, down $2.150

Sep 22 Feeder Cattle  closed at $175.300, down $1.975